CEPAL

REVIEW

69

Technological maturity
in the world
petrochemical industry

Javier Jasso Villazul
Research Professor,
Economics Division,
Center for Economic
Research and Training
(CIDE), Mexico.

This article presents a methodological and empirical approach to the measurement of technological maturity in a
process industry, such as petrochemicals, at the international level. The main conclusion is that the degree of technological maturity determined in the exercise may vary,
depending on the indicator used for measuring the life cycle
of the industry. This finding is very important because the
conventional indicators of market dynamism or production
do not always reflect the degree of technological maturity
of an industry or sector. Since technology is a decisive factor in the degree of maturity, other variables also need to be
incorporated, especially regarding the technological dimension. The methodology of the present study includes a
typology for each result with respect to competitiveness, for
each form of maturity, with emphasis on the role and characteristics of technology as a source of long-term competitiveness (sections II and III), using market, production and
technology variables located around the life cycle of products and the value chain. In the analysis of the evolution of
the petrochemical industry and its production and technological features, special emphasis is placed on two types of
production processes (continuous and batch-type processes)
and two types of business: commodities, and special petrochemical products (sections IV and V). After presenting the
results and types of technological maturity for each variable, the correlation of the variables used is assessed (sections VI and VII). Finally, some conclusions are presented
and the lines of research suggested by this exercise are outlined (section VIII).

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I
Introduction
... technological change is extremely uneven over time;
in each industry and economic sector and, geographically,
in each region and country. The spread of clusters of
broadly adaptable technological innovations is capable
of giving a substantial boost to the growth of the economic
system, ... however, these new “technology systems”
eventually mature and tend to produce
different effects on investment and employment.
Christopher Freeman, John Clark and Luc Soete

Competitive advantages are linked to the degree
of technological maturity of products and processes. The latter, in turn, is connected with the
know-how applied to the creation or improvement
of new products, processes or production techniques, including machinery, organization and
production process design. Consequently, specialization of marketing and production on mature or
innovative products is a reflection of the effort
made by the agents to innovate and, to a large extent, to survive or maintain their position in the
international market.1
This article seeks to measure the technological
maturity of the petrochemical industry (PCI).2 The
aim is to show that it is necessary to include technological maturity variables in order to determine more
precisely the form of specialization in markets and
products and the competitiveness of an industry or
sector. The measurement includes both qualitative

and quantitative indicators, in view of the complexity
of assessing the technological maturity of an industry
or economic sector.
Because of the technological changes and innovations which have taken place between its creation
earlier in the twentieth century and recent years, the
PCI has reached a level of technological development
which justifies its description as a technologically
mature industry.
However, this innovation and evolution has not
been uniform or identical at the level of the different
products or branches of the industry. Thus, although
the PCI may be described in general as a technologically mature industry, there are products or branches
in it which may be singled out as innovative.
A more detailed analysis will allow this generalization to be made more specific and contribute to
theoretical analysis and the definition and application
of more effective public policies.

o The author wishes to express his thanks for the comments and

suggestions made on various previous versions discussed at research seminars in CIDE, especially those of Kurt Unger and of
an anonymous ECLAC referee.
1 For more details of the relation between technological development and competitiveness see, among others, Nelson and Winter
(1982), Freeman, Clark and Soete (1982), Fajnzylber (1991),
ECLAC (1993), Arjona and Unger (1996) and Jasso (1997).

2 Technological maturity is described later in this article. In the
petrochemical industry, production differentiation covers a wide
variety of products ranging from specialized petrochemicals to
commodities.

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II
Technological maturity as a result
of market, production and/or
technological factors
In this article it is suggested that technological maturity should be linked to the market results and the
production and technological position of each product in a given industry. The production and technological position implies a technological level which
may be termed “innovative” when there is a substantial technological effort, or “mature” when this is not
the case.
The position of each branch of the PCI may
display an upward trend or be the same as its initial
situation, in dynamic or static market segments;3 this
determines its status as mature or innovative, which
is reflected in the efforts made and results obtained
in terms of the market, production and technology.
In the approach set forth in the present article, the
measurement of technological maturity is linked with
the level of technological dynamism, as reflected in
the type of product –innovative or mature– and the
type of market: dynamic or static (figure 1).
The technological innovation process has the
following features:
i) it is dynamic: that is to say, it changes with
time and with the strategies and circumstances of the
actors involved. This dynamism and change means
that firms are guided by their perception that there
are unexploited opportunities;
ii) it is differentiated, which means that its results and performance are specific to the particular
characteristics and conditions of each industry, region, company or country;

FIGURE 1

Technological maturity as a function of
market dynamism and technological dynamism
Market dynamism

High

Low

Type of product:
mature
Type of market:
dynamic

Type of product:
innovative
Type of market:
dynamic

Type of product:
mature
Type of market:
static

Type of product:
innovative
Type of market:
static

Low

Technological dynamism

High

Source: Prepared by the author.

iii) it is cumulative, reflecting the possibility of
incorporating experience and learning to build up
and create knowledge;
iv) it is capable of being appropriated, so that
technological results can be protected and hence sold
or kept by the innovator, who thus obtains benefits
from his innovation, and
v) the circumstances and efforts of the participating actors and the networks that exist between
them mean that the opportunities are different for
each industry, institution, country or region.

3

Dynamic products are those which have an above-average
growth rate compared with the rest of the products and also
have a high technological content.

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III
Analysis of technological maturity
The technological maturity of the PCI will be measured
by the share of each branch of the industry in the world
market; the dynamism of the market, of production, and
of patent applications; the branch’s location in the production chain, and its technological characteristics.
This proposed methodology analyses the technological maturity process and determines whether, in the light
of different variables for measuring such maturity, the
position by products is in line with each variable.
The dependent variable is technological maturity,
while the independent variables correspond to the market
share, associated with the dynamism of the market, the
dynamism of production, the dynamism of patent applications, the location in the production chain, and the
taxonomy of the technology (figure 2).
Identification of the stage at which each product or
process is located in the technological life cycle and its
position in the market is an important criterion for
determining the degree of maturity of products or processes (figure 3). These variables are located around the
life cycle of PCI branches in an “S” or Engel curve.
Analysis of the cycle is important in order to identify
the type of commercial and technological specializa-

tion and the stages of innovation, maturity
and decline. The products which offer the
greatest growth potential (generally innovative
products) are those which are at the start of the
curve. The opportunities associated with each
type of technology are also located in this stage
of the cycle.
As products advance in their life cycle their
growth trend is slower, because of the entry of
new imitative competitors who tend to saturate
the technological opportunities: this causes the
growing maturity of the products in question,
which are more and more standardized and
become simple commodities (figure 3).
The degree of technological maturity is
thus related with the life cycle of the product.
In the initial stages of development and application of technologies, the innovations are
predominantly in products and correspond
above all to specialties (figure 3), but in the
following stages –saturation and decline–
they are mainly in processes, especially for
the production of commodities.

FIGURE 2

Categories and variables used for measuring the
technological maturity of products or branches

Variables used
“y” axis:
Market share in relation with
a, b, c, d and e
“x” axis:
a) Market dynamism
b) Production dynamism
c) Rate of patent applications
d) Production chain
e) Technological taxonomy

Categories

Type of technological maturity

High or low

Comparative, market

Dynamic or static
Mature or innovative
High or low
Basic (commodities) or final (specialties)
Mature: supplier-dominated, with economies of scale
Innovative: specialized science-based suppliers

Market
Product
Patent
Production chain
Evolutionary

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FIGURE 3

Innovation and maturity: the technological life cycle

IV
The petrochemical industry
as a subject of analysis
1.

The importance and definition of the
petrochemical industry: its products and
the production chain

It is important to study the degree of maturity of the
PCI, because this industry has contributed to the birth
and evolution of some of the industries that form the
present techno-economic paradigm, such as those of
new materials, biotechnology, microelectronics, telecommunications and genetic engineering.4
The PCI is defined as a set of activities consisting
of 18 branches based on three-digit groups of the
Standard International Trade Classification (SITC).5

4

A techno-economic paradigm is a model and pattern of solutions for given technological problems, based on a selection of
principles derived from the natural sciences and applied technology (Dosi, 1982).
5 The 18 branches in question are listed in table 1 and some of
them are reflected in the petrochemical chain shown in figure 4.

This definition takes the PCI in a broad sense at the
production level and includes its international performance (table 1). The selected set of activities includes petrochemicals which are separated out
directly from petroleum in the form of products,
without undergoing any changes in their chemical
composition, and also other petrochemicals from intermediate stages or steps in their synthesis, before
being turned into final products.
In other words, it covers the petrochemical chain
from the most basic petroleum products (naphthas,
aromatics, olefins and natural gas) up to special petrochemical products (table 1 and figure 4).
The term “intermediate petrochemical product”
has been coined to denote chemical compositions at
stages intermediate between one or more raw materials and the final marketed products6 (figure 4).
6

Although some petrochemical products may be considered as
chemicals, in this study we will refer indistinctly to both concepts when talking about organic chemistry.

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TABLE 1

Branches of the international
petrochemical industry
Branches
(SITC
groups)
1
2
3
4

233
266
334
511

5
6
7
8

512
513
514
516

9

522

10
11
12
13
14
15

533
551
562
572
582
583

16
17
18

584
591
598

Name of branch

Latex, rubber, SBR, oil derivatives, etc.
Synthetic fibres, nylon, polyester, polyamides
Petroleum products
Ethylene, butylene, propylene, butadiene,
benzene, xylene, toluene, styrene, cyclohexane,
ethylbenzene
Alcohols, phenols and their derivatives
Carboxylic acids, anhydrides, halides
Acrylonitrile, amines, anilines
Acetaldehyde, acetone, formaldehyde, ethylene
oxide, propylene oxide
Ammonia, carbon black, nitric acid, aluminium
hydroxide, etc.
Pigments, paints, varnishes, etc.
Essential oils and perfume materials
Urea, ammonium sulphate, phosphates, etc.
Explosives and pyrotechnic products
PET, polyamides, polycarbonates and other resins
Polyethylene, polypropylene (PP), polyvinyl
chloride (PVC), ABS-SAN, etc.
Cellulose acetate, esters, ethers, etc.
Insecticides, fungicides, disinfectants, herbicides
Plasticizers, oil additives, anti-knock
preparations, etc.

Source: Prepared by the author on the basis of the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC).

This definition is useful for securing compatibility between different statistical sources and series,
particularly at the levels of aggregation used by the
various international classifications of trade, production and patents.7
2.

Evolution of the petrochemical industry

At the world level, the PCI has been one of the fastest-growing industries, with high profit rates.8 Innovatory trends in the PCI were initially observed in the
innovation activities of the pioneering companies in
the 1950s and 1960s, which was termed a period of

7

This includes compatibility of the three-digit SITC trade classifications, with United Nations (1993 and 1994) data on world
production, and the classification of the United States Patent
Office for patents registered in that country.
8 Its most flourishing period was from the 1950s to the 1970s.

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“technology push”. The typical innovation model was
based on fundamental sciences, giving rise to new petrochemical product and process designs (figure 5).
As a result of this rapid expansion of the PCI,
petrochemical companies –especially the transnationals– began to specialize in product lines in which
they had some kind of market, production or technological advantage.
In their process of internationalization, these
companies set up subsidiaries in oil-producing countries in order to guarantee a supply of petroleum or
basic petroleum products and to serve the local market, and they reproduced the production and trading
model of the parent firm in them. This internationalization strategy did not initially include major research and development activities.
In the decades in question the oil-producing
companies increased their world market shares in
operations with greater forward linkages in the petrochemical chain, manufacturing basic and intermediate petrochemical products and some synthetic
plastics. At the same time, the chemical companies
specialized in the final stages of the chain and
showed a tendency to backward integration to include the manufacture of intermediate products, but
without giving up the production of final goods.
This led to a process of restructuring of the PCI,
in which the main petrochemical companies had built
up sufficient technological capacity to occupy the
position of leaders, creating a technological tradition
in some products or product lines throughout the
technological path.9 This specialization and growing
accumulation of production and technological capabilities has been one of the main barriers to the entry
of possible new competitors or imitators.10
This form of competition gave rise to an arranged and oligopolistic market by the late 1960s
and the 1970s. At the end of the 1970s, some 90% of
world petrochemical production came from the
United States, the Western European countries and
Japan, which also made growing investments in the
PCI of other countries.

9

With regard to technological tradition, see Achilladelis,
Schwarzkopf and Cines (1990).
10 Copying products or processes through reverse engineering
or the consultation of patents is more complicated in the PCI
than in other industries because its products have very precise
physical and chemical characteristics in which the production
process is of decisive importance for progressing from the prototype level to full-scale industrial volumes of production.

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FIGURE 4

The petrochemical chain: products and branches a
Petrochemical process
Petroleum refining (334)
Basic

Natural
gas

Intermediate

Final

Ethane
LPG 8
Ethylene (511)

Polyethylene
(583)
PVC (583)

Vinyl
chloride

Ethylene oxide
(516)

Polyester fibres)
(598)
w
Detergents (266)
Anti-freeze (533)

Ethylene glycol 8

Crude oil

Gas oil
Naphtha 8

Propylene
(511)
O
L
E
F
I
N
S

Plastics and
films (583)

8

Polypropylene
(583)

Plastics (583)

Acrylonitrile
(514)
Oxo alcohols
(512)

P
L
A
N
T

Polyacrylic
fibres (266)

Coating
plastics (583)

Cat cracker

Butadiene
(511)

High-octane
gasoline

Gasoline
from thermal
cracking

Benzene
(511)
Ammonia
(522)

Synthetic resins (583)
ABS (583)

Styrene (511)

Cyclohexane
(511)
Phenol (512)

Foam plastics (583)

8

Nylon (266)

Urea (562)
Coating plastics (583)
w

Orthoxylene

Polyester resins (266)
Paraxylene
Step 1

Step 2

Commodities (mature products)

Polyester fibres (266)
Step 3

Step 4
Innovative products

Source: Prepared by the author.
The numbers in brackets correspond to some of the selected branches whose products are listed in table 1.

a

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FIGURE 5

FIGURE 6

Supply push (first generation)

Demand push (second generation)

Basic
science

Universities

Design
and
engineering

Manufacturing

In-house process

Marketing

Sales

Market
needs

Market

Experimental
development

Market

Manufacturing

In-house process

Sales

Market

Source: Prepared by the author.

Source: Prepared by the author.

In the early 1980s, demand began to play a
more important role as a force for innovation,
and companies tended to make changes in their
products and processes in response to market
needs (figure 6).

From the mid-1970s to the 1980s, the entry of
new competitors gave rise to a supplementary innovation model, midway between technology and demand pushes, which is now characteristic of
innovation activities in the PCI.11

V
Production and technological features
of the petrochemical industry
Ever since it arose early in the twentieth century, the
PCI has been marked by the technological change12
associated with scientific and technical processes in
the chemical industry. The system of continuous production predominates, as do high capital-product and
capital-labour ratios and marked effects of scale
(Chudnovsky, López and Porta, 1994).
These features give rise to supply patterns which
are highly concentrated in the producer countries: a
phenomenon which is particularly marked in the case
of certain developing countries and companies.
1.

Continuous and batch-type production
processes (thermal cracking and catalytic
cracking)

The most important change in the PCI has been the
transition from batch or non-continuous production
processes to continuous processes. These latter processes have made it possible to apply economies of
scale in the construction of the plants and in labour
costs, to avoid heat losses, to facilitate the monitoring and control of chemical reactions, to reduce considerably the unit production costs of the majority of
the most important chemical products, to raise quality, and to achieve greater uniformity of the products.

The new continuous production pattern became
known for the first time in the dyestuffs industry. Although the first synthetic dyestuffs and innovations
in this field were discovered by English inventor/entrepreneurs, by the end of the nineteenth century the
lead in this field had undoubtedly been taken over by
German industry (Freeman, 1974).
Thermal and catalytic cracking13 were part of the
changes made in the oil refining process. The relations between IG Farben and Standard Oil in the
1920s and 1930s marked the culmination of a process of evolutionary development which had begun
in 1900-1913 with the process of cracking the heavy
components of petroleum to produce gasoline.
11 For

more details of the innovation process in the industry, see
Rothwell (1994), and with regard to innovation in the chemical
and/or petrochemical industry see Walsh (1984), Chapman
(1991), Achilladelis, Schwarzkopf and Cines (1990), Bower
(1985), Freeman (1974), Gutiérrez (1988), Unger, Saldaña,
Jasso and Durand (1994) and Chudnovsky and Porta (1997).
12 Technological change is the process of changes in a product,
process or production technique which involves the introduction of new aspects or the improvement of existing ones.
13 In the 1920s it quickly became clear that any subsequent
progress in the cracking process would probably be based on
catalytic techniques (Freeman, 1974).

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FIGURE 7

Characteristics of commodities and specialties,
and differences between them
Commodities (mature products)
Type of process
Process characteristics
Marketing strategies
Type of competition
Source of profitability
Type of knowledge
Age of equipment
Knowledge base

Specialties (innovative products)

Continuous-flow
Stable and controlled
Standard
Prices
Scale of production
Widely known
Latest generation
Basic processes

Small batches
New products
Differentiation
Technology/new products
Low volume, high prices
Specific
Older generations
Chemical engineering

Source: Prepared by the author.

The combined effect of the change to continuous
processes, the increasingly large scale of operation,
the use of catalytic processes, the complexity of plant
design and the use of petrochemical products as
basic materials gave the great chemical and petrochemical companies a dominant position in the development of new processes from the First World
War onward (Freeman, 1974).
2.

Commodities and specialty products as
differentiated areas of business

The production and technological features described above have resulted in the PCI having two
strongly differentiated areas of business (figure 7):
i) commodities, with generally stable, controlled
and optimized continuous-flow production processes and price-based marketing strategies, and
ii) specialty products, with non-continuous or
small batch processes and marketing strategies
aimed at the launching of three or four new products each year.
These differences mean that the know-how associated with each of these areas of business is not
complementary with the other. Non-continuous
processes require specialized know-how on chemical engineering, whereas continuous processes call
for know-how on basic processes, last-generation

equipment, and constant efforts to optimize the
processes. Thus, as the know-how required in the
two fields is different, specialization in commodities does not necessarily lead to the production of
specialties. In other words, there is not much room
for shared know-how and savings through synergies (figure 7).
This limitation is important for understanding
the weak situation of many Latin American countries, which, in general, have tended to concentrate
on the first of these fields. However, there are small
locally owned companies in Argentina, Mexico and
Brazil which manufacture products with a higher
content of innovation and research (including pharmaceutical chemicals, plasticizers and pesticides).
The results of each technological opportunity are intimately linked with commercial, production and
technological specialization (figure 2).
It may be concluded from this analysis that the
different patterns of specialization will generally
have different possibilities of technical progress and
long-term growth and that it is advantageous for a
country to be able to compete successfully in an industry, branch or product whose markets offer good
prospects of development and involve key technologies (Arjona, 1995; Amable, 1993): i.e., those of innovative products.

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VI
The initial approach:
international market shares
This first indicator –the PCI’s share of the international market– is combined with the indicators proposed here for measuring the technological maturity
of the industry.
The initial analysis of the technological maturity
of the PCI is based on the variables proposed for the
indicators of revealed comparative advantages,
through the indicator of the PCI’s share of the international market, represented here by the imports of the
member countries of the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD).
In other words, the PCI’s share is measured in relation to the OECD’s imports of petrochemicals and
the total imports of the OECD; likewise, the share of
each branch of the petrochemical industry is measured in terms of its share in the total world market
(all branches) and the world petrochemical market
(only the petrochemical branches).14
The indicator used to measure the PCI’s share in
the world market is as follows:
Share of PCI = Mi/Mt, where Mt = total OECD
imports and Mi = OECD imports of petrochemical
products.
Between 1980 and 1995, international trade in
petrochemical products grew at an average rate of
7% per year (i.e., 60% faster than world production),
while its share in total world imports was 9.5% in
1980 and 7.4% in 1993 (figure 8).
The growth rate of the share of world imports
accounted for by the PCI as a whole went down by almost 23% over the period in question, declining from
0.5% in 1980 to 0.4% in 1993. This clearly illustrates
the relative maturity of the PCI as a whole on the
market side (table 2).

14 The data used are taken from the Competitive Advantage of
Nations (CAN) model developed by the Economic Commission
for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC, 1994).

FIGURE 8

Share of petrochemical industry in
world imports,a 1980 and 1993

Source: Prepared by the author.
a
As represented by the imports of the OECD countries.

FIGURE 9

Shares of mature and innovative branches of the
petrochemical industry, 1980 and 1990

Source: Prepared by the author.

This increasing maturity also reflects increasing
maturity in terms of the branches of the PCI: thus, the
mature branches increased from 20% of the whole in
1980 to 21% in 1993 (figure 9).
There is a high degree of concentration of
production, as just a few branches account for a
high proportion of total production. Thus, the

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TABLE 2

Competitiveness of the world petrochemical industry, 1980-1993 a
1980

1993

World market

PCI (%)

World market

PCI (%)

World petrochemical industry:
Average
Total

4.77
9.54

50.00
100.0

3.69
7.38

50.00
100.00

Branchesb with the largest shares (innovative branches)
Average
Total
1
334
2
583
3
598
4
514
5
582
6
533
7
513
8
522

0.95
7.61
4.64
0.94
0.48
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.24
0.36

9.98
79.80
48.69
9.82
5.07
3.64
4.24
2.09
2.53
3.73

0.73
5.82
1.95
1.18
0.66
0.62
0.48
0.32
0.31
0.30

9.86
78.87
26.41
15.98
8.94
8.45
6.49
4.32
4.16
4.12

Branchesb with smaller shares (mature branches)
Average
Total

0.19
1.93

2.02
20.20

0.16
1.56

2.11
21.13

9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

0.56
0.34
0.17
0.24
0.16
0.16
0.09
0.12
0.08
0.02

5.82
3.58
1.76
2.48
1.69
1.64
0.92
1.22
0.83
0.24

0.27
0.25
0.24
0.22
0.17
0.12
0.11
0.09
0.06
0.03

3.65
3.39
3.29
3.01
2.31
1.63
1.51
1.18
0.75
0.40

511
562
516
512
591
233
551
266
584
572

Source: Prepared by the author on the basis of ECLAC (1994).
The branches are ranked according to their percentage share of world trade in 1993.
b
Based on the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC).
a

three main branches accounted for 64% of the industry’s share in the world petrochemical market.
These branches are: i) petroleum products, ii) resins of polyethylene, polypropylene, PVC and
ABS-SAN, and iii) plasticizers, oil additives and
anti-detonants.

By 1993, however, this concentration tended to
go down, largely because of the smaller share of the
most mature basic goods –i.e., commodities, and especially petroleum products– in contrast with the
increase in the share of final goods and petrochemical specialties (table 2).

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VII
Results and types of technological maturity:
the market and some variables
In this section, technological maturity is analysed
with the incorporation of the market share variable
(y axis) and five other variables (x axis), as
shown earlier in figure 2.
1.

Market share and market dynamism:
maturity of the market

We will now analyse the dynamism of the international petrochemical market, which is different for
innovative or dynamic products as against mature or
non-dynamic goods: i.e., for those which grow more
than the average for the total imports of the OECD
between 1980 and 1993 on the international market
as against those which grew less than the average.
This definition, which is based on the share of
the PCI market in 1993, will represent our first identification of the maturity of the market, in which the
dynamic products are the innovative ones and the
non-dynamic products are the mature ones.
For the PCI as a whole, we note that the innovative branches are in the majority (10 out of 18), but
the net result is negative (-23%) because the mean
negative growth of the mature branches (-50%) was
greater than the mean positive growth of the innovative branches (+35%) (table 3).
Another noteworthy feature is that, as we shall
see below, almost all the innovative branches coincide with those that have a greater content of technology. In contrast, in the mature branches the
technological content is variable, so that they include
branches with high and low contents of technology.15

15 This finding coincides with that obtained by Hochgraf (1983),
cited in Gutiérrez (1988), for four of the five products on which
he based his sample, namely, ethyl alcohol (group 512), benzene
(group 511), synthetic fibres (group 266) and synthetic elastomers (group 233).

The mature branches were fewer in number
(8 out of 18) and had a smaller share of the petrochemical market (44%) in 1993, although they had
had the largest share in 1980 (68%).
The large share of petroleum products (group
334) is noteworthy (49% in 1980 and 26% in 1993),
but this was the branch that decreased most (58%)
(table 3).
The weight of the innovative branches is increasingly great. Between 1980 and 1993 their share
increased by 35%, because this category contains the
most dynamic branches on the market, located further ahead in the petrochemical chain. Particularly
rapid growth was registered by groups 514
–acrylonitrile, amides and anilines, with 80%– and
533 –pigments, paints and varnishes, with 60% (table
3 and figure 10).
This behaviour indicates that some of the
branches of the PCI are, as we already noted, in a
state of maturity or are being replaced by other products. It may also be noted that the dynamism of some
branches is due to the fact that they provide inputs
for products which are very dynamic on the international market, such as plasticizers in the electronics
and motor industries or new materials for the manufacture of information processing, robotics and telecommunications equipment.
Some branches –especially those producing petrochemical specialties– have been so dynamic that
they have even been classed as part of the new
techno-economic paradigm, in which the spearhead
sectors have a wide dissemination and presence in
other sectors.
Among the branches with high market shares
(over 4%) there are six innovative branches (groups
583, 514, 582, 598, 533 and 513) but only two mature branches (petroleum products and group 522)
(table 3).
The results show that most of the 18 branches
studied are innovative (10 out of 18) while the remainder are mature (figure 11).

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Market dynamism in the world petrochemical industry, 1980-1993 a
Share of petrochemical branch

Petrochemical branches

b

1980

Growth rate
1980-1993
(%)

1993

World market

PCI%

World market

PCI%

World petrochemical industry
Average
Total

4.77
9.54

50.00
100.0

3.69
7.38

50.00
100.0

-22.62

Dynamic (innovative) branches
Average
Total

0.31
3.05

3.20
32.01

0.41
4.12

5.59
55.85

35.01

0.35
0.20
0.17
0.48
0.02
0.24
0.09
0.94
0.40
0.16

3.64
2.09
1.76
5.07
0.24
2.53
0.92
9.82
4.24
1.69

0.62
0.32
0.24
0.66
0.03
0.31
0.11
1.18
0.48
0.17

8.45
4.32
3.29
8.94
0.40
4.16
1.51
15.98
6.49
2.31

79.72
59.68
44.73
36.33
27.73
27.24
27.06
25.89
18.59
5.43

Non-dynamic (mature) branches
Average
Total

0.81
6.49

8.50
67.99

0.41
3.21

5.52
44.15

-49.76

11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

0.24
0.36
0.16
0.12
0.34
0.08
0.56
4.64

2.48
3.73
1.64
1.22
3.58
0.83
5.82
48.69

0.22
0.30
0.12
0.09
0.25
0.06
0.27
1.95

3.01
4.12
1.63
1.18
3.39
0.75
3.65
26.41

-5.96
-14.40
-23.14
-25.27
-26.78
-30.01
-51.51
-58.02

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

514
533
516
598
572
513
551
583
582
591

512
522
233
266
562
584
511
334

Source: Prepared by the author.
The branches are ranked according to their percentage growth rates.
b
Based on the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC).
a

FIGURE 10

Growth rates of market shares of some branches
of the world petrochemical industry, 1980-1993
(Percentages)

Source: Prepared by the author on the basis of table 3.

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FIGURE 11

Final results by type of technological maturity of PCI branches a

PCI
branches
233
266
334
511
512
513
514
516
522
533
551
562
572
582
583
584
591
598

b

1
Market
share

2
Market
dynamism

(MS)
M
M
I
M
M
I
I
M
I
I
M
M
M
I
I
M
M
I

(MD)
M
M
M
M
M
I
I
I
M
I
I
M
I
I
I
M
I
I

3

4

5

MS +
MD

Production

6
Produc-

Patents

M
M
M
M
M
I
I
I
M
I
I
I
I
I
I
M
I
I

M
M
M
M
I
I
I
M
I
M
I
I
M
I
I
I
I
I

M
M
I
I
M
I
I
M
I
I
I
M
I
I
I
M
I
M

7

tion
chain
I
I
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
I
I
M
I
I
I
M
I
I

Evolutionary
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
I
I
M
I
I
M
I
M

Source: Prepared by the author.
a
M = mature; I = innovative.
b
Based on the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC).

2.

Market share and dynamism of production:
maturity of production

Dynamism of production is based on the growth of
the volume of world production (in metric tons)
shown in the statistics of United Nations (1993 and
1994), harmonized with the SITC.
Maturity of production is defined by the growth
of petrochemical products compared with the average for industry as a whole.
Innovative branches are those which had a positive mean growth rate between 1980 and 1992 compared with the average for all petrochemical
branches; mature branches are those which had a
negative growth rate compared with that average.
The behaviour of the PCI has varied from one
branch to another. Generally speaking, the behaviour
of world production (figure 12) displays well-defined
analytical categories in terms of the petrochemical
cycle.

FIGURE 12

Growth rates of volume of world
petrochemical production, 1977-1992
(Metric tons and percentages)

Innovative

Mature

v

Overall
average

Source: Prepared by the author on the basis of United Nations
(1993 and 1994).

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TABLE 4

Rate of patent applications in the world petrochemical industry, 1983-1994
(Percentages of number of patents registered in the United States)
Branches a

Products of branch

Growth rate (%)

0.03

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

582
551
533
513
583
514
334
511
572
591

Branches with a low rate of patent
applications (mature)
Total
Average
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

512
584
266
233
598
522
516
562

Phenols, alcohols
Esters, ethers
Synthetic fibres, nylon
SBR, latex
Oil additives
Carbon black, nitric acid
Formaldehyde, acetaldehyde
Urea, phosphates

0.12
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.08
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.05
0.04

4.50
0.29
4.01
6.55
6.14
3.94
5.96
13.45
0.68
0.52

53.96
6.75

0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
–
-0.04
-0.05

Polyamides, PET
Perfumes and flavourings
Varnishes, pigments
Carboxylic acids
Polyethylene, PVC
Anilines, amides
Olefins
Ethylene, toluene, benzene
Explosives and pyrotechnic products
Insecticides, fungicides

46.04
4.60

-0.02
–

Branches with a high rate of patent
applications (innovative)
Total
Average

100.0
5.56

0.80
0.08

World PCI
Total
Average

Share (%)

16.32
14.70
2.70
3.27
2.74
2.78
4.39
7.07

Source: Prepared by the author on the basis of data from the U.S. Patent Office.
Based on the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC).

a

Noteworthy among the innovative branches are
those manufacturing final products such as polypropylene, phenolic resins, acetates and polystyrene
(groups 582, 583, 514, 598, 513, 522, 591, 584, 512
and 562).
Among the mature branches, there are many
which produce basic goods such as benzene, butadiene, carbon black, ammonia, and some intermediate goods such as ethylene glycol, ethylene oxide
and phenol (groups 334, 533, 266, 572, 511, 233 and
516) (figure 11).
In most of the branches the results with regard to
maturity of production are similar to those for market
maturity, except in the case of seven branches
(groups 512, 516, 522, 533, 562, 572 and 584).

3.

Market share and intensity of applications for
patents: maturity in terms of applications for
patents

Patents have been used as one of the technological
indicators, since they reflect the results of inventiveness and changes in products and/or processes.16
16 Among the indicators relating to intellectual property, one of
the most accessible and useful in the case of the PCI is that regarding patents. Another potentially useful but not readily accessible indicator is that relating to “industrial secrets”. With
regard to the advantages and disadvantages of this indicator for
measuring the process of innovation, see Griliches (1990), Dosi,
Freeman, Nelson and others (1988) and Dosi, Pavitt and Soete
(1990).

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Patents are one of the means whereby entrepreneurs protect their inventions and innovations. This
means of protection allows them to maximize their
monopolistic gains from innovation by making it
more difficult for potential competitors to copy or
imitate them.
Patents capture and measure the first stages of a
process which, through development, testing and engineering, leads from the invention itself to the complete innovation. Patents can extend over the whole
product cycle, from those which protect the basic invention, through those relating to the product and
process engineering, and finally a large number of
patents to protect improvements and block action by
competitors (Dosi, Pavitt and Soete, 1990).
In this study, measuring the intensity of patent
applications is effected by identifying the branches
of the PCI in which most patents are taken out (table 4). Branches defined as innovative are those
where there was positive growth in the rate of applications for patents between 1983 and 1994,
while mature branches are those where growth in
this rate was negative. This reflects a certain ageing of the products concerned, with prevalence of
those where fewest patents are taken out: branches
using technologies which have been covered for 20
years by the patents obtained. The period selected
was from 1983 to 1994 in order to maintain compatibility with the periods used for studying the
other variables17 (table 4).
The results obtained between 1983 and 1994
show that the innovative branches as a whole registered a larger number of patents (four or five times
more than the mature branches between 1969 and
1996). However, it has been noted that it is not
necessarily the most dynamic branches in terms of
patent applications which account for the largest
share of patents (measured in relation to the number of patents registered in the United States), although in some cases there is indeed a strong
correlation between the rate of applications for
patents and market shares.
Thus, for example, some innovative branches
(groups 551, 572 and 591) display considerable dynamism in terms of patent applications (rates of 0.10,
17 If we had selected a longer series this would have enabled us
to determine the results in terms of maturity more precisely,
since it would include innovations made before the period in
question, many of which may have been the basis for subsequent developments, and it would also have made it possible to
determine the radical or incremental nature of the innovations.

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FIGURE 13

Rate of patent applications of
some PCI branches, 1969-1996

Years
Mature branches

Innovative branches

Source: Prepared by the author on the basis of data from the U.S.
Patent Office.

0.05 and 0.04% respectively) yet have low shares of
the number of patents registered (0.29, 0.68 and
0.52% respectively). Conversely, some mature
branches (groups 512, 584 and 562) account for a
greater share of patents but display low levels of dynamism in this respect (0.02, 0.02 and -0.05% respectively).
This result confirms that many of the mature
branches correspond to commodity producers and
that although some of these branches have made
changes or improvements which are reflected in patents, these are much fewer than in the innovative
branches. This tendency also shows how much importance the companies have attached to intellectual
protection through patents (figure 13).
The results obtained by combining patent dynamism with market share show that almost half of the
PCI (8 out of 18 branches) is in mature branches
(groups 598, 522, 512, 584, 266, 233, 516 and 562),
while a little more than half (10 out of 18) corresponds to innovative branches (groups 582, 533, 513,
583, 514, 334, 551, 572, 511 and 591) (figure 11).
4.

Market share and the production chain:
maturity in the production chain

The analysis of technological maturity is further
completed by determining the location of each
branch in the production chain (figure 6) and in the
life cycle of its products (figure 5), in order to identify the degree of maturity of the two typical lines of

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business of the PCI –commodities and specialties–
referred to at the beginning of this article.
The petrochemical chain (figure 4) is divided in
this case into two major stages. The first comprises
steps 1 and 2, which involve the production of commodities and intermediate products and are marked
by maturity. The second stage comprises steps 3 and
4, which correspond to final goods and petrochemical specialties such as resins, fibres and rubber inputs
and are innovative products.
The further along the petrochemical chain, the
greater will be the technological content. Consequently, the mature branches are those which produce commodities and are located in the first stage of
the chain, while the innovative branches are those
that produce petrochemical specialties and are located in the second stage.
The results show that, as we saw when looking
at the previous types of maturity, most of the
branches (10 out of 18) are innovative (groups 533,
582, 583, 598, 233, 266, 516, 551, 572 and 591),
while the remaining eight are mature (groups 334,
513, 514, 522, 511, 512, 562 and 584). These results
show that commodities or specialties may be in the
innovative or mature stages, depending on the criteria used (figure 11).
5.

Market share and technological taxonomy:
maturity of evolution

The technological content as defined by the maturity
of evolution shows the variety of forms of technological behaviour of the enterprises studied and is based
on the taxonomy prepared by Pavitt (1984).
This taxonomy identifies the different levels
of innovation of economic sectors and proposes
four technological categories corresponding to
different forms and intensities of innovation,
namely: i) supplier-dominated forms; ii) “scaleintensive” forms; iii) those having a specialized
supplier, and iv) science-based forms. The differences in each category vary according to the origin
of the technology, the supplier-user relationship
and the possibility of appropriating technological
rents.
The composition of each branch with regard to
these categories determines the innovative or maturity potential of each industry, taken as a whole.
In this taxonomy, the mature branches (groups
233, 266, 334, 511, 512, 513, 514, 516, 522, 533,

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135

572, 562, 584 and 598) are those which correspond
to the categories defined by Pavitt as being supplier-dominated or “scale-intensive” (figure 11).
The traditional branches, in many cases producing commodities, are to be found in this category.
They are also branches which use widely available
technology, make few investments in scientific and
technological research, and have only limited infrastructure. There is a high possibility of imitation,
so the level of appropriation is low. The means of appropriation used are brand names, product differentiation, industrial secrets and
patents. These
characteristics mean that there are few innovations,
usually of an incremental nature, because there are
few efforts or results in the field of innovation. Technological changes involve above all the machinery
and equipment, or else large-scale production associated with the equipment.
The rest of the branches (groups 551, 582, 583
and 591) are the innovative ones and belong to the
categories of specialized suppliers and science-based
branches (figure 11).
These categories are marked on the one hand
by being producers of specialized machinery,
equipment and instruments and, on the other, by
assimilating and applying scientific knowledge developed in the technology centres of the companies
themselves or in institutions such as universities or
research centres.
Innovation is mainly at the product level, and the
type of technological change is primarily radical or
major. The rents from the technology are generally
high and are based on a very close interrelation with
users. In research activities, the predominant areas
are those of know-how, design, quality, patents, and
industrial secrets. In both categories, the innovations
range from incremental and widely disseminated
developments to radical innovations, thus pointing to
greater innovative activity than in the mature
branches.
The results obtained in terms of maturity by
combining market share with the technological taxonomy show that the performance of the PCI as a
whole bears out the initial argument of this article,
which emphasizes that maturity varies from one
branch to another in the PCI.
The majority of the petrochemical branches (14
out of 18) have little innovative activity, as highlighted in Pavitt’s taxonomy, so that the PCI as a
whole is marked by relative maturity (figure 11),

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with most branches (14 out of 18) being mature and
only the remaining four being innovative.
6.

The petrochemical industry as a mature
industry with some innovative branches:
a summary

As a whole, the PCI is a mature industry, as reflected
in its market, production and technological results.
At the level of its individual branches, however,
the situation in terms of maturity is not always the
same, as it can vary depending on the indicator used
(figure 11).
In 12 of the 18 branches studied, the variables
used give complementary results in terms of maturity
or technological innovation. In the remaining six
branches, however, there are contradictions as regards whether they are mature or innovative. If we
take the differentiation between commodities and
specialties, we likewise see that there are both
coincidences and contradictions with regard to the
concept of maturity (figure 11).
If we take all the variables, 8 out of the 18 petrochemical branches (groups 233, 266, 334, 511, 512,
522, 562 and 584) prove to be preponderantly mature
in the sense that the maturity indicator coincides in at
least five variables.
The preponderantly innovative branches are in
the minority (4 out of 18: groups 551, 582, 583 and
591). They have characteristics and rates typical of
innovation and correspond to branches in which the
innovation indicator coincided in five out of six of
the variables used.
The remaining six branches out of the 18
(groups 513, 514, 516, 533, 572 and 598) may be defined as either mature or innovative, depending on
the variable used.

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These results show that the criteria usually applied to distinguish between mature and innovative
branches do not necessarily coincide with those used
by technical experts, academics or the specialized
press. This also applies to the distinction between the
commodity and specialty lines of business in the industry.
Finally, the direction of causality has been determined between each of these variables, in order to
provide even stronger grounds for the conclusions
reached. The basis for the analysis was the application of the coefficient of correlation by ranks
(Spearman’s index) to the quantitative variables,
market share (MS), market dynamism (MD), production dynamism (PD) and rate of patent applications
(PA).
Synthesis of the results in terms of market share
and measurement of technological maturity shows
a weak positive correlation between MS and MD
(= 0.19), MS and PD (= 0.21) and MS and PA
(= 0.18). These data show that although the coefficients of correlation are positive, they are different in
the three cases and the case which best explains the
causality is that which combines market share with
production dynamism.
The index of correlation is as follows:18
rK = 1 –

6 Σd 2
n( n 2 – 1)

where d is the difference between pairs of corresponding ranks and n is the number of pairs.
However, it is also necessary to take into account the characteristics relating to purely technological aspects, as noted earlier for the variables relating
to patents, the production chain and intensity of innovation.

VIII
Conclusions
The analysis of technological maturity must be seen
as a complex and evolutionary process in which the
technological dimension, in combination with the
market, production and the production chain, may
maintain or modify the degree of maturity.
The measurement of technological maturity
varies according to the indicators used in it, and this

may lead to differing results with regard to the
definition of branches as mature or innovative. The
criteria for defining maturity are neither clear nor

18

The distribution in the sample is symmetrical around 0 and
ranges from -1 to +1.

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precise, and this highlights the importance of making
them more uniform in order to be able to classify
products as mature or innovative.
When only market variables or those typical of
comparative advantages are taken into account for
measuring maturity, differences and contradictions
arise in the resulting degrees of maturity. The analysis should therefore include not only market share
and production dynamism but also other variables
(especially those of a technological nature) which
help to explain the dynamics of the cycle.
Performance in terms of innovation in the PCI is
specific to each of the branches making up the industry: that is to say, it is differentiated. The combination of the various criteria for analysing
technological maturity has given different results for
different branches, thus giving different types of maturity. Two types of branches have been identified in
the petrochemical industry: innovative branches,
which are those where technological activity is greatest but do not always obtain outstanding results in
the market and are generally engaged in the production of petrochemical specialties, and mature
branches, which register a lower level of technological activity, with variable market results, and are generally engaged in the production of commodities.
Combination of the different variables and indicators used (market share, share in production, rate
of patent application activity, place in the production
chain, and technological taxonomy) gave rise to
types and states of maturity which coincided in many
cases with the results for each variable analysed,
with weak positive levels of correlation between the
variables.
In the set of variables analysed it was found that
the innovative branches, which are generally specialized, tend to have a greater presence on international
markets. This result was observed in the branches located in the more advanced steps of the petrochemical
chain, corresponding to goods with more technological
content and greater added value. There can also be innovative branches which have poor market results,
however. In this case, their market position can improve
if there is a substantial demand push, or get worse if
this does not exist or the other branches improve their
technological situation. In other words, petrochemical
specialties do not always have excellent market results,
even though they generally have a favourable position
in the international market.
The mature branches, for their part, which are
generally engaged in the production of commodities,

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137

have intermediate market results: they may have an
important presence in the market, generally in specific niches, or they can tend to be replaced by new
branches. Generally speaking, they are towards the
end of the production life cycle and at the beginning
of the production chain, and their position in the international market is usually unfavourable.
The analysis of technological maturity can be
useful for showing the form of insertion in the international economy of the leading countries and those
that follow them. The leaders set the pace of international technological competitiveness, which is related in practice with the technological frontier and
innovative products and processes. In contrast, the
international insertion of the followers is usually in
less innovative, mature, product lines and processes,
generally associated with commodities.
The application of this methodology at the country or enterprise level can show how the different
countries operate and their position in the economy.
The division of the world market into innovative and
mature branches is useful for understanding and
justifying sectoral lines of competition, in terms of
the market and technological results, which help to
identify or strengthen the international competitiveness of a country or enterprise. It can also aid in the
analysis of the respective macroeconomic configurations and hence serve as a guide in the application of
forward-looking structural reforms, identifying the
strengths, weaknesses and opportunities of the different types of international insertion, in mature or innovative branches.
This analysis should be complemented with an examination of the scenario represented by a system or
policy of innovation at the regional and national level
aimed at reducing the effects of international recessions
or deterioration in the terms of trade on the mature
branches, which are more seriously affected by these
phenomena than the innovative branches.
In the future, maturity studies of this nature
could help in the analysis of international trade specialization and the results of technological change in
terms of competitiveness. The results regarding positioning would help to go more deeply into the causes
and possibilities of improving or modifying the position occupied by a country or enterprise and its type
of international insertion.
The foregoing suggests various lines of future
research. One of these would be to apply the study of
technological maturity to other economic branches.

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Another would be to identify the results obtained by
a country’s industry at the international level and see
whether they coincide with the performance of enterprises within that country.
It is important to make studies in greater depth
at the enterprise level and find aspects which are not
visible from the indicators and statistics at the country, industry or product level. In order to do this, the

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strategic performance of enterprises and their capacity for learning and developing technological skills
should be analysed and then included in the examination of market and technological variables, in order to identify possible relations and common
characteristics between the enterprises and institutions in question.
(Original: Spanish)

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