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José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs

Executive Secretary

Javier Medina Vásquez

Deputy Executive Secretary a.i.

Simone Cecchini

Chief, Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre

(CELADE)-Population Division of ECLAC

Sally Shaw

Chief, Documents and Publications Division

This publication was prepared by Helena Cruz Castanheira, Gabriel Mendes Borges, José Henrique Costa Monteiro da Silva and Guiomar Bay, under the supervision of Fabiana Del Popolo, Chief of the Demography and Population Information Area of the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of ECLAC, and Simone Cecchini, Chief of CELADE-Population Division of ECLAC.

The United Nations and the countries it represents assume no responsibility for the content of links to external sites in this publication.

For additional information on the contents of this Observatory, please contact:

Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of ECLAC

Email: celade@cepal.org

For subscriptions or single issues:

publicaciones.cepal@un.org

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This publication should be cited as: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Demographic Observatory, 2024 (LC/PUB.2024/22-P), Santiago, 2024.

Applications for authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part should be sent to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Documents and Publications Division, publicaciones.cepal@un.org. Member States of the United Nations and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and to inform ECLAC of such reproduction.

Contents

Maintitle

Copyright

Contents

Foreword

Introduction

I. Population in Latin America and the Caribbean

II. Decomposing demographic change

III. Mortality

IV. Fertility

V. International migration

VI. Population ageing and implications for the demand for long-term care

VII. Conclusions

Bibliography

Annex A1

Foreword

The Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) is pleased to present its readers with this edition of the Demographic Observatory, which includes selected indicators of population estimates and projections for 47 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean.

The estimates and projections herein were presented on 11 July 2024, World Population Day, on the occasion of the publication by the United Nations of World Population Prospects 2024, a revision containing an analysis of 1,910 population and housing censuses, 79 more than in the 2022 revision. The national population estimates and projections for the 20 countries of Latin America were prepared by CELADE-Population Division of ECLAC in conjunction with the United Nations Population Division.

For Latin America and the Caribbean, the 2024 revision, analysed in this edition of the Demographic Observatory, incorporates the available census results, by age and sex, for the 2020 census round for Argentina (2022), Brazil (2022), Ecuador (2022) and Panama (2023).[1] Country data were also updated on the basis of the most recent population and health surveys and vital statistics published by 2023. CELADE-Population Division of ECLAC also updated its estimates for the labour force and the urban and rural populations of the 20 countries of Latin America, which are available on the ECLAC website.[2]

This edition of the Demographic Observatory analyses the acceleration of demographic changes in the first quarter of the twenty-first century as well as population prospects and certain implications linked with ageing, the labour force and care. With regard to the acceleration of demographic changes, the population estimates for 2000–2023 presented in the 2024 revision —which incorporated at least one population and housing census from each of the region’s countries— show a sharper demographic shift than had been predicted in 2000 on the basis of the trends to 1999.

According to the results, Latin America and the Caribbean has around 663 million inhabitants in 2024, accounting for nearly 8.1% of the world’s population, which is estimated at 8.2 billion. The region’s population is expected to peak at approximately 730 million by 2053, while the global population will reach its highest level in 2084, at 10.3 billion.

These results differ from the projections of the early 2000s. At the time, in line with the decline over the previous decade and patterns in other world regions, it was estimated that fertility rates in Latin America and the Caribbean would be generally higher than the rates actually observed between 2000 and 2024. The volume of migration was also expected to be lower than the actual figure. The significant demographic shifts during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic had not been predicted either, especially the rise in mortality.

The demographic transition in Latin America and the Caribbean has been faster than that of other regions, such as Europe. As the region underwent that transition, the high mortality and fertility rates of the 1950s fell to the current lows. The drop in fertility is unprecedented: in the 1950s, women in the region had an average of 5.8 children during their childbearing period; by 2024, that figure had fallen to 1.8, below the replacement level. However, the region’s demographic transition is highly uneven, owing to differences in socioeconomic and cultural factors and in access to services in each country. For example, the total fertility rate in Argentina in 1950 was 3.2 children per woman, while in the Plurinational State of Bolivia it was 6.2. By 2024, these figures had fallen to 1.5 and 2.5, respectively. Adolescent fertility has also fallen sharply in several countries of the region, although it remains high compared to other world regions.

The demographic transition has dramatically changed the age structure of the region’s population. In 1950, around 41% of the population was under 15 years of age; today, the proportion has fallen to 22.5%. At the same time, the adult population aged 15 to 64 rose from 55.6% of the total in 1950 to 67.6% in 2024. It is expected that, by 2050, people over 65 years of age will account for around 18.9% of the region’s population, approximately double the proportion in 2024 (9.9%).

The change in the age structure of the population and the steady decline in fertility to below the replacement level compound the challenges in Latin America and the Caribbean, where socioeconomic inequality is high and there are significant gaps in access to government goods and services. Ageing affects all areas of public policy, leading in particular to rising demand for long-term care services. There is no question that the demographic landscape is and will remain highly consequential in re-envisioning how to build more productive, inclusive and sustainable societies.

Simone Cecchini

Chief

Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre

(CELADE)-Population Division of ECLAC

1. [1] The censuses of Chile (2017), Colombia (2018), Guatemala (2018), Mexico (2020) and Peru (2017) had already been included in the 2022 revision. Census results for El Salvador (2024), the Dominican Republic (2022), Paraguay (2022), the Plurinational State of Bolivia (2024) and Uruguay (2023) were not available in time for the 2024 revision of population projections and will be included in the next revision.

2. [2] See [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections.

Introduction

Demographic projections and estimations are essential for planning and development, as they provide a framework for forecasting population changes that will affect public policy decisions and the use of resources in various areas. The 2024 revision of population estimates and projections of the United Nations is based on the progress made in the 2022 revision, in which significant methodological improvements were introduced using the cohort component method based on single ages and calendar years, in contrast with the 2019 edition, which was based on years ending in 0 and 5 and on age groups. A new data portal was also created, enhancing the standards for data quality, transparency and replicability and responding to the growing demand for greater disaggregation of demographic indicators (United Nations, 2024).[1]

Given the dynamic nature of demographic phenomena, which necessitates regular revision, the United Nations Population Division and the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of ECLAC update their population estimates and projections every two or three years. Analysing population forecasts as new data become available is extremely important for Latin America and the Caribbean, where demographic changes have been rapid.

In recent decades, social, economic and cultural shifts in the region have coincided with significant demographic transformations. The demographic transition, in which a society’s birth and death rates fall from high to low, has been more rapid in the region than in higher-income countries and has accelerated over the past 20 years. This process has marked the population growth rate and age structure. When mortality declines, the population tends to grow, but later, as fertility falls, population growth slows. Declines in mortality, and mainly in fertility, also bring about population ageing over the medium and long term, increasing the proportion of older persons.

Although the demographic transition is a universal process that has taken place in all countries, albeit with different characteristics, it cannot explain all demographic changes. Other theories include the second demographic transition (Lesthaeghe, 2014) —in particular the post-transition stage, in which new topics are analysed that often become significant when fertility falls below the replacement level— a consolidated ageing process, and major changes in family structure. The backdrop for the above-mentioned changes is a shift in gender relations, with women gaining more independence and autonomy in making a range of decisions, including those related to control over their bodies and reproductive health. Migration is another significant and largely unforeseen factor in the classic demographic transition. In general, the second demographic transition brings with it a variety of new social issues, including those related to ageing, integration of immigrants, adaptation to other cultures, lower marital stability, more complex households, and high poverty or exclusion in certain kinds of households (Lesthaeghe, 2014; Brignoli, 2022).[2]

This publication presents the main demographic indicators for Latin America and the Caribbean according to the 2024 revision of the population estimates and projections of the United Nations, comparing them with the 2000 revision to highlight the main demographic changes in the region since the turn of the twenty-first century. It breaks down the difference in total population between the 2000 and 2024 revisions and shows that birth and death rates declined faster than forecast, except during the pandemic, and that net migration was lower than had been anticipated in the 2000s. The chapters that follow offer a detailed analysis of mortality, fertility and international migration and the outlook for these components based on the 2024 revision. Lastly, the challenges and opportunities of rapid population ageing in the region and growing demand for care are examined.

1. [1] The new data portal may be viewed at [online] https://population.un.org/dataportal/data/.

2. [2] As these rapid demographic changes unfold, international population and development agendas and their monitoring indicators are being updated (ECLAC, 2015; United Nations, 2017). These agendas aim to address emerging challenges and opportunities, meet people’s needs in line with human rights standards and promote sustainable and inclusive development.

I. Population in Latin America and the Caribbean

A. Changes to the total population

In this chapter, the main demographic indicators projected for Latin America and the Caribbean in the 2000 revision of CELADE-Population Division of ECLAC and the United Nations Population Division are compared with the figures from the 2024 revision. Rather than evaluating the quality of the projections, which are naturally somewhat uncertain, this exercise aims to contrast the evolution of the demographic changes observed with the expectations of the late twentieth century. This enables the establishment of counterfactual parameters to compare the forecasted trends with the observations of the first quarter of the twenty-first century, to contribute to the discussion on demographic trends over the period.

In interpreting the future demographic trends implied by the projections, the analysis also highlights the importance of these comparisons. Considerable progress has been made in accounting for the inherent uncertainty of the assumptions of demographic projections, enabling a deeper understanding of population dynamics and enhancing the capacity to prepare for the opportunities and challenges of the future. For example, the United Nations has used probabilistic forecasting methods since the 2010 revision of World Population Prospects, which more clearly reflect the inherent uncertainty of these projections than the previous scenario-based forecasting method, with no probabilistic interpretation.[1]

Figure I.1 shows the annual growth rates of the region’s total population indicated in the 2000 and 2024 revisions. In the 1960s, growth rates were over 2.5% per year, suggesting that the population would double every 28 years. However, a downward trend began in the middle of the decade, owing mainly to the decline in fertility. While the 2000 revision forecast that the downward trend would continue, the 2024 revision shows that from the 2000s onward, the decline was faster than anticipated, although it remains within the lower and upper limits forecast in the 2000 revision (see box I.1 for more information on the population projection methodology of the United Nations). In addition, according to the 2024 revision, the growth rate will approach zero in 2050, earlier than had been predicted in the 2000 revision.

Figure I.1

Latin America and the Caribbean: annual growth rate of total population, 1952–2048

(Percentages)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, revisions to 2000 and 2024” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: This figure presents high, medium and low projection scenarios from the 2000 revision of World Population Prospects. In the 2024 revision, the prediction interval for the medium scenario is 95%, which means there is a 95% probability that the projected values will fall within the range indicated.

Box I.1

United Nations population estimation and projection methodology, 2000 and 2024 revisions

World Population Prospects 2024 (United Nations, 2024) is the twenty-eighth round of global population estimates and projections produced by the United Nations Population Division since 1951. In each revision, new data and methodologies are incorporated, both for past estimates and in the production and interpretation of future demographic trends. The Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of ECLAC has contributed to this publication since 1957 and has a mandate to review the estimates for the 20 countries of Latin America. Although originally, United Nations projections were published only for the world as a whole or for major regions, the figures for each country have been published separately since 1968. The following table presents a comparison of the main methodological characteristics of the 2000 and 2024 revisions, which are relevant for the analyses presented in this edition of the Demographic Observatory.

Comparison of methodologies used in 2000 and 2024 revisions of World Population Prospects

2000

2024

Data sources

Data sources published up to 1999 were used, meaning that most of the censuses of the 2000 round (1995–2004) were not included. Fertility, mortality and migration were estimated on the basis of data obtained from household surveys, censuses, vital statistics and administrative records published up to 1999.

Data sources published up to 2023 were used, including the population and housing censuses of the 2020 round that had been published by that year. Various data sources (censuses, household surveys, vital statistics, administrative records and others) were used to estimate annual series of the demographic components, namely fertility, mortality and migration, for 1950–2023.a The impact of COVID-19 was included by incorporating estimates of excess mortality until 2023.

Population projection method

For the 187 countries and territories with an estimated population of 140,000 or more, projections were calculated using the cohort component method, which required fertility, mortality and migration to be estimated. For

the 41 countries and territories whose estimated population was lower, projections were calculated using the estimated population growth rate, without forecasting fertility, mortality or migration separately. Thirteen of the countries and territories of Latin America and the Caribbean fell into the latter group.

The cohort component method was used for all countries and territories.

Age groups

and periods

Five-year periods and age groups were used to estimate mortality and fertility rates and net migration. For example, the mortality table is abbreviated by age group and shows 5-year periods, such as 1990–1995. A total of 10 mortality tables were estimated for 1950–2000.

One-year periods and single ages were used, meaning that mortality

and fertility rates and net migration were estimated for each year. For example, since the mortality table displays single ages, it is complete,

and it is annual, with one age cohort per year: 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993,

1994 and 1995. For 1950–2023, 73 mortality tables were estimated

for each country or territory.

Projection scenarios

Projections were calculated using deterministic scenarios. Only fertility scenarios were calculated; existing assumptions were maintained for mortality and migration, namely the medium scenario. In the high scenario, the total fertility rate was assumed to be 0.5 children per woman above the average; in the low scenario, it was assumed to be 0.5 children below. Other scenarios were established for illustrative purposes, but not as possible future trends. The low and high scenarios enabled the incorporation of the lower and upper limits of population growth. The medium scenario was taken as the main benchmark for determining long-term trends.

Probabilistic projections were established for each component (total fertility rate, women’s life expectancy at birth and net migration rate). The cohort component method was used for each subsequent distribution scenario, and the trend average was used to establish the medium projection. Prediction intervals of 80% and 95% were also estimated for these scenarios. The lower and upper limits of the 95% prediction interval were used as the low and high scenarios for the projections. Deterministic scenarios were also published in this case, using a total fertility rate of 0.5 children per woman in the high scenario and 0.5 children per woman in the low scenario, but the estimates were calculated using the medium trajectory for the projected rate, using probabilistic methods. However, the use of the probabilistic prediction interval was recommended, as it allowed for a more straightforward interpretation because it could be expressed probabilistically. For example, the 95% prediction interval indicated a 95% probability that the projected value was within the range considered. In addition to the projections utilizing probabilistic prediction intervals, other scenarios were published, resulting in a total of 13 scenarios.

Projection

of fertility

Countries were classified by fertility rate (low, medium or high). The logistical parameters for each category were used to establish the projections. Most Latin American and Caribbean countries were in the medium category, with total fertility rates that were trending downward while remaining above the replacement level. The medium scenario for this group’s projections suggested that growth would decline to the replacement level before 2050. For the high

and low scenarios, an overall fertility rate

of 0.5 children per woman was assumed

for both categories.

A Bayesian hierarchical logistic model was used to project fertility for the countries in stage 2 of the fertility transition (no country in the world is currently in pre-transition, stage 1). This model is based on the demographic transition theory and takes into account both the historical trends in each country and global experience. For countries in stage 3 of the fertility transition (low fertility), a first-order autoregressive time series (AR(1)) was used, as part of the Bayesian hierarchical model. The average total fertility rate was calculated for 5-year periods to determine whether a country was in stage 2 or stage 3. It was then verified whether fertility had increased over two consecutive periods following a decline in the average fertility rate to below 2. If no increase was observed over two consecutive periods, it was deemed that the country was still in stage 2 in 2023; otherwise,

it was deemed to have entered stage 3.

Projection

of mortality

Mortality was projected using the model for change in life expectancy of the United Nations. In the countries most affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, its impact was considered by establishing annual projections of the HIV infection rate.

Mortality projections were calculated on the basis of women’s life expectancy at birth, using a double logistic function within a Bayesian hierarchical model. Both the historic trends of each country and global experience were incorporated into the model. Men’s life expectancy was calculated by modelling the gap between men and women, using autoregression and co-variables. It was assumed that life expectancy would increase over the projection period, with a return to the pre-pandemic trajectory in 2024.

Projection

of migration

The hypotheses used to forecast migration were based on recent net migration trends by age and sex and the policies implemented in each country.

For the first time, international migration was projected using probabilistic methods. Net migration rates were modelled using a Bayesian hierarchical approach, based on historical experiences and

the uncertainties and correlations among countries. After the rates were calculated, they were converted into net migration counts that were used in the component method.

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024: Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections (DESA/POP/2024/DC/NO.10), July 2024; and World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision. Volume III: Analytical Report (ST/ESA/SER.A/200), New York.

a For a full list of the data sources for each country, see [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/DataSources/; data may be viewed at [online] https://population.un.org/dataportal/data/.

In the 2000 revision, it was estimated that the total population would reach 689 million by 2024, but in this year’s revision, the estimate is 663 million (see figure I.2). In other words, the region’s total population today is 3.8% lower than had been forecast in the 2000s. These recent changes also affect subsequent projections: in the 2000 revision, it had been projected that the total population of Latin America and the Caribbean would exceed 800 million by 2050, while the latest revision estimates that figure at around 730 million. In this case also, the figures forecast in the 2024 revision are lower than the values anticipated in the 2000 revision, but remain within the parameters of the original scenarios. Considering the 95% credibility intervals of the 2024 revision, it is highly improbable that the population of Latin America and the Caribbean will reach the figure of 800 million forecast in the 2000 revision. An analysis of individual countries in the region shows that despite the disparities between the population estimates of the 2000 and 2024 revisions, the estimates in the 2024 revision remain below those of the 2000 revision for the same period, while also often falling within the established range (United Nations, 2001 and 2024).

Figure I.2

Latin America and the Caribbean: total population at midyear, estimated and projected, 1950-2050

(Millions of people)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, revisions to 2000 and 2024” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: This figure presents high, medium and low projection scenarios from the 2000 revision of World Population Prospects. In the 2024 revision, the prediction interval for the medium scenario is 95%, which means there is a 95% probability that the projected values will fall within the range indicated.

B. Structural changes by age and sex

Slower population growth in the region has coincided with demographic transformations that are starkly revealed in the age structure of the population. Since demographic change has been more marked over the past 25 years than had been expected at the turn of the century, the shapes of the 2024 population pyramids derived from the 2000 and 2024 revisions vary somewhat (see figure I.3). The deviation is even greater for the 2050 forecasts. In general, the population pyramids established on the basis of the 2024 revision show more ageing than those derived from the 2000 revision: the bases of the 2024 and 2050 pyramids are narrower (reflecting fewer births), and the centre of the 2050 pyramid, which represents the population aged 25–64, is broader. Chapter IV presents the evolution of other age structure indicators through time.

Figure I.3

Latin America and the Caribbean: total population at midyear, estimated and projected, by sex and age group, 2000, 2024 and 2050

(Percentages)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, revisions to 2000 and 2024” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

1. [1] The United Nations incorporated probabilistic projections of fertility, life expectancy at birth and net migration rate in the 2010, 2012 and 2024 revisions of World Population Prospects, respectively. Hence, in the latest revision, all three components are projected probabilistically.

II. Decomposing demographic change

Population changes through time can be described using the basic demographic equation, Nt+1 = Nt + Bt - Dt + It - Et, where the estimated population in year t+1 (Nt+1) is derived by taking the population of the previous year (Nt), adding births (Bt), subtracting deaths (Dt) and incorporating net migration (It - Et).

Similarly, the population growth rate may be decomposed into the three components of demographic change, namely birth, death and migration:

Rt = TBNt - TBMt + TMt, (1)

where Rt is the population growth rate in year t, TBNt is the crude birth rate, TBMt is the crude death rate and TMt is the net migration rate in year t.

Figure II.1 shows the projections of the 2000 and 2024 revisions for the three rates comprising demographic change. The 2000 revision had forecast a birth rate higher than the rate actually observed in the first quarter of the twenty-first century. Mortality had also been projected to be slightly higher than the rate observed, except during the pandemic (2020, 2021 and 2022). The degree to which the region’s net migration would be negative was also underestimated in the 2000 revision. These comparisons show that demographic change accelerated across all three components, namely fertility and mortality —which declined more rapidly— and migration, which increased.

Figures A1.1 to A1.4 in the annex contrast the crude birth and death rates of the 2000 revision with those of the 2024 revision for all countries and territories in the region.

Figure II.2 shows the difference between the population growth rates implicit in the 2000 and 2024 revisions, as well as the breakdown of this difference into its components (births, mortality and migration). The differences increased between 2000 and 2005, stabilized until 2016, and then increased again (growing rapidly during the pandemic). With the exception of those years, the gap between crude mortality rates is positive, indicating that mortality was lower than expected in 2000. At the beginning of the period analysed, the discrepancies between the growth rates of the two revisions are explained mainly by variations in migration, as negative net migration was higher than expected. The increasing difference in birth rates over time means that the 2000 revision had estimated a higher birth rate than that observed in the 2024 revision; between 2010 and 2020, the birth rate accounts largely for the difference in growth rates. During the pandemic, all components contributed to the difference in the same direction given the unprecedented rise in the mortality rate, leading to much lower observed growth rates than anticipated.

Figure II.1

Latin America and the Caribbean: crude birth rate, crude death rate and net migration rate, estimated and projected, 2002–2048

(Per 1,000)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, revisions to 2000 and 2024” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: This figure presents high, medium and low projection scenarios from the 2000 revision of World Population Prospects. In the 2024 revision, the prediction interval for the medium scenario is 95%, which means there is a 95% probability that the projected values will fall within the range indicated.

Figure II.2

Latin America and the Caribbean: difference between population growth rates and between birth, death and migration rates estimated in 2000 and 2024 revisions of World Population Prospects, 2002–2048

(Per thousand)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, revisions to 2000 and 2024” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Figures A1.5 and A1.6 in the annex show the differences between population growth rates and between birth, mortality and migration rates for the 2000 and 2024 revisions for each country and territory of Latin America and the Caribbean. Although the growth rate is generally lower in the 2024 revision than in the 2000 revision, the pattern varies considerably from one country to another.

Regarding death rates, indicators were better than expected in some countries, such as Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Ecuador, while in others, such as the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and Mexico, mortality was higher than expected. Clearly, in the pandemic years, mortality indicators were generally higher than anticipated. The birth rate has been lower than projected in 2000 in most countries, including Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Paraguay, the Bahamas and Jamaica.

International migration reflects a greater impact at the individual country level than when analysing the region as a whole. This is because intraregional migration flows increased but totalled zero in the aggregate. In general, migration intensified in most countries, with more pronounced negative or positive balances than initially anticipated. For example, Mexico’s population growth in

2005–2015 was higher than had been predicted at the beginning of the twenty-first century owing mainly to the wide gap between the estimated and projected net migration rate. In other words, net migration was, on average, less negative than expected in the 2000s, and this translated into a lower population loss for the country. By contrast, the growth rate of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela was significantly lower in 2019 than what had been estimated in 2000. This discrepancy also stemmed from the difference in migration, as the population loss was higher than expected. Migration flows in the region also reflected an opposite trend: some destination countries, especially Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, received more migrants than expected in the 2000s.

III. Mortality

Since 1950, the infant mortality rate, which indicates the probability of a newborn dying before the age of one, has decreased sharply in the region and is expected to continue declining, a trend that is also common in each country (see figure III.1 and figures A1.7 and A1.8 in the annex). In the region as a whole and in most countries, the decline in infant mortality has been greater than expected at the beginning of the twenty-first century. A similar trend is observed in child mortality, such that, by 2024, most countries had already surpassed target 3.2 of the Sustainable Development Goals, to reduce under-5 mortality to at least as low as 25 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030 (see table III.1). Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and the Plurinational State of Bolivia are the only countries that have not yet met this target, and efforts will have to be scaled up to achieve it by 2030. Despite progress to date, the under-5 mortality rate remains high in the region (15.6 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2024) and is 3.8 times higher than that of Europe (4.14 deaths per 1,000 live births). Thus, the countries of the region still have a long way to go in this area.

Figure III.1

Latin America and the Caribbean: infant mortality rate, 1950–2050

(Number of deaths per 1,000 live births)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, revisions to 2000 and 2024” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: This figure presents the medium scenario and 95% prediction interval of the 2024 revision of World Population Prospects, which means that there is a 95% probability that the projected values are within the indicated range.

Table III.1

Latin America and the Caribbean (47 countries and territories): under-5 mortality rate, 2024

(Number of deaths per 1,000 live births)

Latin America and the Caribbean

15.6

Latin America

15.6

The Caribbean

14.3

Argentina

10.2

Anguilla

5.5

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

40.4

Antigua and Barbuda

9.2

Brazil

13.7

Aruba

13.3

Chile

6.4

Bahamas

12.5

Colombia

11.7

Barbados

12.3

Costa Rica

7.5

Belize

10.5

Cuba

5.6

British Virgin Islands

12.3

Dominican Republic

31.5

Caribbean Netherlands

12.4

Ecuador

12.1

Cayman Islands

1.5

El Salvador

11.3

Curaçao

9.9

Guatemala

21.2

Dominica

31.7

Haiti

56.8

Grenada

14.4

Honduras

15.0

Guadeloupe

8.0

Mexico

12.5

Guyana

22.2

Nicaragua

13.2

French Guiana

11.1

Panama

13.2

Jamaica

18.9

Paraguay

19.3

Martinique

7.6

Peru

12.8

Montserrat

6.2

Uruguay

7.0

Puerto Rico

6.5

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

17.9

Saint Kitts and Nevis

14.5

Saint Lucia

16.6

Sint Maarten

14.5

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

14.2

Trinidad and Tobago

15.8

Turks and Caicos Islands

5.6

Suriname

12.4

United States Virgin Islands

5.6

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, revisions to 2000 and 2024” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: Indicator 3.2.1 of the Sustainable Development Goals, defined as the under-5 mortality rate, is not a rate strictly speaking (not the number of deaths divided by the number of people at risk during a given time period), but rather a probability of death derived from the life table (5q0) and is expressed as a rate per 1,000 live births. For more information, see [online] https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/files/Metadata-03-02-01.pdf.

Figure III.2 shows life expectancy at birth in Latin America and the Caribbean: the indicator increased significantly between 1950 and 2019, fell in 2020, 2021 and 2022, and is expected to recover in the future, with consistently higher values for women than for men. Latin America and the Caribbean was the region where life expectancy at birth decreased the most during the pandemic: compared to 2019, losses amounted to 1.98 years in 2020 (1.61 for women and 2.25 for men), 3.4 years in 2021 (3 for women and 3.7 for men) and 0.6 years in 2022 (0.57 for women and 0.62 for men).[1] The total loss recorded in 2021 represents a reversal of 18 years of progress on life expectancy at birth in the region, as it returned to values recorded in 2003. This decline in life expectancy not only reflects death from the coronavirus, but also from other causes that were affected by the pandemic.

Figure III.2

Latin America and the Caribbean: life expectancy at birth, 1950–2050

(Years)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: This figure presents the medium scenario and 95% prediction interval of the 2024 revision of World Population Prospects, which means that there is a 95% probability that the projected values are within the indicated range.

In some countries, such as Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic, life expectancy has risen more rapidly; in others, such as the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Jamaica and Mexico, this indicator has improved more slowly or has stagnated (see figures A1.9 and A1.10 in the annex).

1. [1] While Latin America and the Caribbean was the region where life expectancy at birth decreased the most in 2020 and 2021, in 2022 the largest losses were observed in North America, where life expectancy at birth was 0.94 years lower that year than in 2019 (0.63 for women and 1.17 for men).

IV. Fertility

The 2000 revision of population estimates and projections forecasted a declining trend in the total fertility rate in Latin America and the Caribbean, stabilizing at around 2.1 children per woman.[1] As figure IV.1 shows, the actual decline was much faster and the rate is expected to continue falling in the coming decades, albeit at a slower pace, stabilizing at around 1.7 children per woman. Even considering the credibility intervals of the projections, which incorporate both the historical experiences of the region’s countries and observations in other countries that are at more advanced stages of the demographic transition, it is unlikely that the total fertility rate will return to levels above 1.9. As shown in figures A1.11 and A1.12 in the annex, several countries of the region reflect trends aligned with regional tendencies. The drop in fertility in countries such as Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica and Uruguay in the second half of the 2010s —owing mainly to the decline in fertility among younger women (aged 15–24)— is particularly striking. The total fertility rate for these countries in 2024 is 1.5, 1.14, 1.32 and 1.4 children per woman, respectively.

Figure IV.2 shows the age-specific fertility rates in Latin America and the Caribbean from 1950 to 2024, and projections to 2050. From the 1960s onward, fertility declined sharply in almost all age groups, with the 15–19 age group registering a more gradual decline. Since the mid-2010s, however, the drop in adolescent fertility has accelerated in the region and is expected to continue falling, together with the rate for the 20–24 age group. In other age groups, the rate is expected to stabilize or even recover slightly.

Figure IV.1

Latin America and the Caribbean: total fertility rate, 1950–2050

(Live births per woman)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: This figure presents the medium scenario and 95% prediction interval of the 2024 revision of World Population Prospects, which means that there is a 95% probability that the projected values are within the indicated range.

Figure IV.2

Latin America and the Caribbean: age-specific fertility rate, by age group, 1950–2050

(Number of live births per 1,000 women)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Figures A1.13 and A1.14 in the annex show the age-specific fertility rates for each country in Latin America and the Caribbean. The general regional trend is mirrored in several countries, albeit at different levels. The fertility of women aged 15–19 and 20–24 has declined in all countries since the 2000s: the most significant drop in Latin America was in Chile (91%) and Costa Rica (70%), and in the Caribbean, in Bermuda (95%) and Puerto Rico (82%).

In 2024, the average fertility rate for the 15–9 age group in Latin America and the Caribbean is 50 live births per 1,000 women: in 8 Latin American countries this fertility rate is lower, while in 12 it is higher. Chile has the lowest fertility rate for this group in Latin America (6 per 1,000), followed by Costa Rica and Uruguay (25 per 1,000) and Argentina (26 per 1,000). The countries in Latin America with the highest adolescent fertility rate are Nicaragua (94 per 1,000), Honduras (81 per 1,000), the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (74 per 1,000), Paraguay (71 per 1,000) and Guatemala (68 per 1,000). In the Caribbean, fertility among adolescents aged 15–19 is 77 per 1,000. The rate is highest in Belize, French Guiana and Guyana, at over 100 per 1,000.

The age distribution of the fertility rate has changed dramatically in the region: both the shape of the curve and the value of the rate have visibly transformed between 2000 and 2024, and fertility is expected to last even longer in 2050 (see figure IV.3 and figures A1.15 and A1.16 in the annex). The fertility mode, that is, the age at which the age-specific fertility rate is highest, increased from 21 years in 2000 to 24 years in 2024, and is expected to rise to 28 years in 2050. The average age of fertility has also changed in the region over the last two decades, up from 26.9 years in 2000 to 27.6 years in 2024, and is projected to increase to 28.7 years in 2050. This shows that, in addition to the considerable decline in fertility, the age at which childbearing begins has been gradually postponed.

Figure IV.3

Latin America and the Caribbean: age-specific fertility rate, by age, 1950–2050

(Number of live births per 1,000 women)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

1. [1] The assumption that fertility would stabilize at replacement level (2.1) in different countries was used until the 2000 revision. A significant change in the assumptions about future fertility was introduced in the 2002 revision. For the first time, it was predicted that, at some point in the twenty-first century, fertility would fall below replacement level in most developing countries. This change was based on the conclusions of a series of expert meetings held since 1997, according to which there no longer appeared to be any barriers for most countries to reach replacement level and subsequently fall to a lower level (United Nations, 2003).

V. International migration

International migration has remained a constant throughout Latin American and Caribbean history. The region received immigrants from the start of its colonization until the mid-twentieth century, when it became characterized by emigration: in fact, since 1950, net migration for the region has been negative.

It is estimated that around 1950, the region’s net migration rate was close to -0.5 net migrants per 1,000 inhabitants. This rate fell steadily to -2 net migrants per 1,000 inhabitants in the 1970s and 1980s, when it reached an all-time low. In the 1990s, the migration rate varied between -1.5 and -2.0 net migrants per 1,000 inhabitants and returned to these levels in the early 2000s. From 2010 onward, there was a trend towards zero net migration, and in 2020 the rate was close to -0.5 net migrants per 1,000 inhabitants given that some countries closed their borders after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Although Latin America and the Caribbean has been characterized by negative net migration since 1950, countries’ migration profiles reflect significant differences. The region includes countries where, historically, emigration has outstripped immigration, such as the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Nicaragua, the Plurinational State of Bolivia and Uruguay, as well as countries where the opposite has occurred since the 1990s, such as Costa Rica and Panama.

In addition to the changes in migration across world regions, recent intraregional migration movements between Latin American and Caribbean countries have increased and diversified, as shown in figure V.1. These changes are largely linked to the growth in Venezuelan migration. The intensity of the flow of Venezuelan migrants to countries such as Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru is unprecedented in the region’s recent history (at least in the past 70 years). The increase in net migration from the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela accelerated starting around 2016: that year, the country had a negative migration balance of over 280,000 people, which increased to roughly 1.4 million people in 2018. That same year, countries such as Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru recorded the highest migration balance in recent years owing to the large number of Venezuelan migrants. These figures have been falling each year, with a sharp decline following border closures by some countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Figure V.1

Latin America and the Caribbean (15 countries): net migration, by country or territory, 2000–2024

(Millions of people)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: This figure presents information for the 15 Latin American and Caribbean countries with the highest levels of absolute net migration between 2000 and 2024.

VI. Population ageing and implications for the demand for long-term care

Swiftly changing demographic trends in Latin America and the Caribbean represent challenges and opportunities for the region, which is facing rapid population ageing, a significant increase in the median age of the population and growing demand for care.

A. Population ageing

Population ageing refers to the increase in the proportion of older persons in relation to the younger population or the total population, owing to changes in and interactions among the components of demographic dynamics, namely fertility, mortality and migration. Although decreasing fertility is typically the main cause of population ageing, lower mortality in older age groups has also contributed to this trend. In certain contexts, international migration may also influence age structure and lead to ageing or rejuvenation, depending on the age composition of migrants and the resident population. Migration may also affect fertility changes if the proportion of immigrant women of reproductive age is high relative to resident women of the same age, and if there is a considerable difference between the total fertility rate of immigrants and that of residents.

This section presents indicators of the age structure of Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as selected countries in the region, according to the 2024 revision of population estimates and projections. Over time, declining fertility leads to a larger proportion of adults in the population and a consequent increase in the median age of the population, that is, the age at which the population is divided into two halves: one whose age is above the median and one whose age is below. In 1950, for example, roughly half of the population of Latin America and the Caribbean was under the age of 18; in 2024, this value had risen to 31 years and, by 2050, it is expected to be approximately 40 years (see figure VI.1).

Figure VI.2 shows the median age of Latin American countries and Caribbean countries and territories in 2024 and 2050. The median age in Latin America is expected to rise from 31.2 years in 2024 to 40.4 years in 2050. In the Caribbean, the median age is higher and is expected to increase from 36.1 years in 2024 to 45.1 years in 2050.

Figure VI.1

Latin America and the Caribbean: median age of population, 1950–2050

(Years)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: This figure presents the medium scenario and 95% prediction interval of the 2024 revision of World Population Prospects, which means that there is a 95% probability that the projected values are within the indicated range.

Figure VI.2

Latin America (20 countries) and the Caribbean (27 countries and territories):a median age of population, 2024 and 2050

(Years)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

a Latin America: Argentina, Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Plurinational State of Bolivia and Uruguay. The Caribbean: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, British Virgin Islands, Caribbean Netherlands, Cayman Islands, Curaçao, Dominica, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Jamaica, Martinique, Montserrat, Puerto Rico, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Sint Maarten, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands and United States Virgin Islands.

With the exception of three Caribbean territories (Guadeloupe, Martinique and the United States Virgin Islands), the median age is expected to continue to increase until 2050. Chile and Cuba have the highest median age in Latin America and this trend is likely to continue until 2050. The median age is expected to rise the most in Chile and Costa Rica, from 36.4 years in 2024 to 48.9 years in 2050, and from 34.6 years in 2024 to 47.0 years in 2050, respectively. The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Haiti, Paraguay and the Plurinational State of Bolivia are some of the countries in the region where the median age is lowest and is expected to rise the least in the coming decades. Among Caribbean countries, the median age is expected to increase the most in Jamaica, from 32.2 years to 46.0 years. In 2050, Puerto Rico is expected to have the highest median age in the subregion, increasing from 45.5 years to 54.7 years.

The rise in the median age across the region is ascribed mainly to falling fertility, which will remain low in the future. Reduced mortality at older ages also tends to contribute to this increase. In addition, migration may affect the rising median age in some countries, depending on the characteristics of migration flows. For example, if a country’s migration rate is negative for ages below the median and positive for older ages (because of return migration), then migration plays a dual role in population ageing.

Figure VI.3 shows the total demographic dependency ratio, the child dependency ratio and the old-age dependency ratio. Since the second half of the 1960s, the child dependency ratio has declined rapidly while the old-age dependency ratio has trended upward. The sum of these two indicators is the total dependency ratio, which is linked to the demographic dividend. Simply put, the demographic dividend represents the economic growth that may result from changes in a population’s age structure. When the number of people in the labour force grows relative to the number of dependents (children and older persons), this boosts productivity and economic growth.

Figure VI.3

Latin America and the Caribbean: total, child and old-age dependency ratios, 1950–2050

(Per 100)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: The child dependency ratio refers to the ratio between the number of children (aged 0–14) and the number of persons of working age (aged 15–64), multiplied by 100. The old-age dependency ratio is the ratio between the number of older persons (aged 65 and over) and persons of working age (aged 15–64), multiplied by 100. The total dependency ratio is the sum of the two.

It is important to note how the difference between projected and actual trends in demographic components in the first quarter of the twenty-first century affects the age structure. The results of the 2024 revision indicate that the total dependency ratio in the region is lower than projected, and that minimum values are being reached a decade later than predicted in the 2000 revision. This may lead to development opportunities for the region, with better investment in quality education, increased productivity and women’s stronger participation in the labour market thanks to a lower child dependency ratio and advances in gender equality. Meanwhile, a faster increase in the old-age dependency ratio is expected, which will pose challenges for public policies targeting this population group.

Figures A1.17 and A1.18 in the annex show the dependency ratios in Latin American countries and Caribbean countries and territories, respectively. The general trend towards a lower child dependency ratio leads to a fall in the total dependency ratio, which then rises given the higher old-age dependency ratio. This process occurs in almost all countries, but at varying speeds and in different years. In the region as a whole, the number of older persons will exceed that of children in 2046. In several countries, such as Aruba, Barbados, Chile, Cuba, Trinidad and Tobago and Uruguay, this change is expected to occur earlier, while in others, such as Belize, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, French Guiana, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Paraguay and the Plurinational State of Bolivia, it will occur after 2050.

The demographic dependency ratio is easy to calculate and enables comparisons over time and between countries. However, the old-age dependency ratio uses the same standard age for all countries and all time periods to determine when a person is considered old, which does not necessarily reflect changes in older persons’ productive and autonomous capacities, which may expand as health conditions improve and life expectancy increases. An alternative way to conceptualize a person’s age that considers their needs and capabilities is to measure ageing in relation to remaining life expectancy. This measure of age is called the prospective dependency ratio.[1]

Figure VI.4 shows a comparison between the traditional old-age dependency ratio and the prospective old-age dependency ratio. The two indicators differ in that the latter uses the value of life expectancy at birth minus 15 years as the lower limit to determine who is considered old. If life expectancy at birth is 80 years, the indicators are the same, since in both cases the population of older persons is considered to be those aged 65 and over. As life expectancy at birth increases, the lower limit rises. This means that the lower age limit that defines who makes up the group of older persons changes over time as the mortality of the population evolves. When adjusted to align with increased life expectancy at birth, the dependency ratio decreases and the process occurs more slowly, since the decline in mortality represents an increase in the indicator’s denominator and a decrease in its numerator. One limitation of the prospective dependency ratio is that it does not take into account the health of the population during its remaining years of life and assumes that the population below the prospective age (life expectancy at birth minus 15 years) is not dependent.

Figures A1.19 and A1.20 in the annex show the traditional and prospective old-age dependency ratio for each country and territory in the region. In each case, the prospective dependency ratio tends to rise more slowly than the traditional dependency ratio owing to the increase in life expectancy.

Figure VI.4

Latin America and the Caribbean: old-age dependency ratio, traditional and prospective, 1950–2050

(Per 100)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

B. Implications of population ageing for the labour force

The increase in the proportion of persons aged 15–65 in Latin America and the Caribbean has led to a rise in the number of employed persons. Estimates for Latin American countries for 1980–2024 reflect an increase in the total working-age population, especially in urban areas (see figure VI.5).[2]

In 2024, Latin America’s labour force comprises nearly 332 million people, with some 274 million in urban areas. Urban workers make up almost 83% of the total, up from 68% in 1980. The urban labour force is projected to continue growing until 2050, reaching 337 million out of a total labour force of 395 million. Meanwhile, the rural labour force is expected to stagnate, maintaining the trend over the past decade.

The observed and projected growth of the labour force is largely the result of an increase in women’s participation, mainly between 1980 and 2000. The female labour force participation rate was close to 27% in 1980 and stood at 38% in 2000 and 42% in 2024. The labour force is expected to continue growing until 2050, with women accounting for nearly 45% by then.

Figure VI.5

Latin America (20 countries):a number of persons in labour force, by area and sex, 1980–2050

(Millions)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

a Argentina, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, the Plurinational State of Bolivia and Uruguay.

The total number of men in the region’s labour force rose from 83.66 million in 1980 to 135.14 million in 2000, an increase of 61.5%. Between 2000 and 2024, the male labour force grew by 41.4% to 190.9 million, and is expected to expand by a further 14% between 2024 and 2050. The number of women in the labour force in 2000 was 2.6 times higher than in 1980. Between 2000 and 2024, that number rose by 71.4%, to 138.6 million, and is expected to grow a further 26% by 2050, to 177.4 million.

The changing age structure is also reflected in the make-up of the labour force. Figure VI.6 presents estimated and projected labour force participation in Latin America from 1980 to 2050, by sex, area of residence and age group. The labour force participation of persons aged 15–19 declines over time owing to the expansion of education in the region. For adults (the 20–24, 25–64, and 65 and over age groups), participation rises, although men’s participation has increased less than women’s in recent decades. In 1980, only around 32% of women aged 25–64 were part of the labour force; by 2024, that proportion had grown to 65%. Women’s participation nonetheless remains well below that of men: over the entire period, the labour force participation rate of men aged 25–64 held steady at 90%.

The figure also shows differences in the labour force participation of the different age groups depending on area of residence. In the 15–19 age group, there are no significant differences in the participation of residents of urban and rural areas. However, in the 65 and over age group, the proportion of persons in the labour force is generally higher in rural areas than in urban areas. In particular, the participation rate for women over 65 is higher in rural areas than in urban areas. For the 20–24 age group, participation is also higher in rural areas, possibly because there are fewer people from those areas in higher education than in urban areas. Lastly, there are no significant differences between urban and rural areas in the 25–64 age group. In general, larger differences in labour force participation rates by age group and in rate variations across time relate to sex rather than to area of residence.

Figure VI.6

Latin America (20 countries):a relative labour force participation, by sex, area of residence and age group, 1980–2050

(Per 100)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

a Argentina, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, the Plurinational State of Bolivia and Uruguay.

C. Implications of population ageing for the demand for long-term care

The swift decline in fertility and mortality in Latin America and the Caribbean has resulted in rapid population ageing. Reduced mortality at all ages also means that the population lives longer, and while this is an important societal achievement, it also poses challenges linked to the health and well-being of older persons. Although not all older persons require care, the increase in the number of people aged 65 and over and, specifically, the rapid rise in the proportion of people over age 80, “poses a care challenge, since the demand for support services, accompaniment and specialized care is increasing and will continue to do so” (ECLAC, 2022a, p. 145). These demographic changes pose challenges, owing in particular to the increased demand for long-term care for older persons, which falls on family members and especially on women, who tend to bear the burden of family care for both children and older persons.[3] Because women’s life expectancy is generally longer than men’s, women are more likely to require long-term care. However, improvements in health and increased life expectancy mean that women of various ages —even in old age— are also caring for family members, such as spouses and grandchildren. Along these lines, a particular characteristic of several Latin American countries, which sets them apart from those of other regions, is that private intergenerational transfers generally flow from older to younger generations (Lee, 2020).[4]

Population changes may have a significant impact on the demand for care, especially if these changes are rapid and society is not prepared to mitigate them. Even if the decline in fertility decreases the need for childcare, the relative increase in the population aged 65 and over (and especially persons aged 80 and over) may mean that caregivers will face a greater burden of care in the future if solutions are not found to meet demand. In general, women assume the burden of care, which often requires their withdrawal from the labour force (ECLAC, 2022b).

The Madrid II scale (Durán, 2012) makes it possible to measure a population’s demand for care according to its age structure.[5] Considering that all care will be assumed by people aged 15–64 (regardless of sex), the care burden in Latin America and the Caribbean will be considerably higher in the future (see figure IV.7). In 2080, for example, it will be 3.5 care units per caregiver in Chile and 4.6 in Puerto Rico. The situation will be even more worrying if the market, the State or other organizations do not address the care burden and it is shouldered entirely by women. In Chile, for example, the care burden is expected to be 7 care units per woman in 2080. However, the region is already experiencing a care crisis and a situation in which women are forced to take on more unpaid care work than they already do would be unsustainable. Excessive unpaid care unjustly burdens women, violates their rights and undermines their autonomy, in addition to being economically inefficient and constraining countries’ economic recovery and growth.

The total care burden can be split to show the contribution of those under 15 years of age and those aged over 65. According to the analysis, the burden of care is expected to grow from 2030 onward, following a period of decline that began in the 1960s (see figure VI.8). The projected increase in the care burden per caregiver will stem mainly from the higher demand for care of persons aged 65 and over, while the previously observed drop was the result of reduced demand for childcare.

Figure VI.7

Latin America (20 countries) and the Caribbean (27 countries and territories):a care units per caregiver, 1950–2100

(Care units per person aged 15–64)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/ and M.Á. Durán, El trabajo no remunerado en la economía global, Fundación BBVA, 2012.

a Latin America: Argentina, Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Plurinational State of Bolivia and Uruguay. The Caribbean: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, British Virgin Islands, Caribbean Netherlands, Cayman Islands, Curaçao, Dominica, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Jamaica, Martinique, Montserrat, Puerto Rico, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Sint Maarten, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands and United States Virgin Islands.

Figure VI.8

Latin America and the Caribbean: units of total care, childcare and care for older persons per caregiver, 1950–2050

(Care units per person aged 15–64)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/ and M.Á. Durán, El trabajo no remunerado en la economía global, Fundación BBVA, 2012.

Figures A1.21 and A1.22 in the annex provide information on each country in Latin America and the Caribbean. They show that the demand for care varies among the countries of the region —both in terms of how it has evolved from 1950 to 2024 and in terms of projected future trends. For example, in countries experiencing faster population ageing, such as Chile, Costa Rica and Cuba, the burden of care has already grown considerably in the current decade. This increase may be of concern in the future, since the dynamics of women’s entry into the labour market have changed significantly and it is difficult, and undesirable, for today’s women to take on workloads similar to or greater than those assumed by women in the past.

1. [1] The prospective dependency ratio (PDR) is calculated similarly to the traditional dependency ratio (TDR), except that instead of using a fixed age (65 years) to identify the population of older persons, a prospective age (PA) is used, which changes according to the mortality conditions in a specific period. The traditional ratio is calculated using the following equation:

(2)

The prospective ratio, meanwhile, is calculated as follows:

(3)

Prospective age, in turn, is defined as the age at which remaining life expectancy in the life table for the period equals 15 years. The advantage of this measure is that it reflects progress in terms of population survival. For more information on the calculations and applications of this indicator, see Gietel-Basten, Saucedo and Scherbov (2020).

2. [2] CELADE-Population Division of ECLAC calculates labour force estimates and projections in urban and rural areas for the 20 countries of Latin America only: Argentina, Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Plurinational State of Bolivia and Uruguay. No labour force estimates or projections are prepared for Caribbean countries and territories because the census and survey data required to apply the methodology are not available.

3. [3] Long-term care is that provided to people who are not fully capable of caring for themselves, with the aim that they continue to enjoy the highest possible quality of life (Montes de Oca, 2023).

4. [4] The study conducted by Lee (2020) considers the following countries: Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay.

5. [5] In the Durán index or Madrid II scale, three care units are attributed to ages 0–4 and 85 years and over, two units to ages 5–14 and 65–84, and one unit to ages 15–64.

VII. Conclusions

This edition of the Demographic Observatory analyses the main outcomes of the 2024 revision of World Population Prospects, which consolidates the methodological advances of previous revisions and incorporates new census, survey and vital statistics data published in recent years. The results of the estimates and projections of CELADE-Population Division of ECLAC for urban and rural areas and the labour force are also presented.

The rapid demographic transition in Latin America and the Caribbean has been widely documented, and this publication underscores that it has outpaced previous projections. Fertility has plummeted in recent decades in several countries and in the region as a whole, driven by declines among younger women, and is expected to remain below the replacement level in the future. The decline in mortality has also accelerated over the first quarter of the twenty-first century, with exceptions during the pandemic years and in specific countries, while a swift recovery from the impact of the pandemic is projected in the coming years. Migration flows, in particular intraregional flows, also accelerated in the region over the years analysed.

The trends seen in the first quarter of the twenty-first century and the comparison with projections for the same period in the 2000 revision of World Population Prospects underscore the importance of periodically updating population estimates and projections. In this context, access to high-quality censuses, vital statistics and other records and surveys is essential, as they underpin the accuracy of such estimates.

As a result of the changes seen, the region’s population is smaller and older than had been anticipated at the end of the twentieth century. The findings of the 2024 revision suggest that the total dependency ratio will remain low until the mid-2030s, which may present opportunities for regional development by increasing productivity, thanks primarily to a decline in child dependency and increased investment in education. These demographic changes also encourage stronger female labour participation. In addition, the dependency ratio of older persons is expected to rise more sharply, which will pose challenges for public policies targeting that population group.

Against a backdrop of socioeconomic inequalities and gaps in access to health and social protection, these demographic changes raise significant issues related to the need for long-term care. Efforts must be made to ensure healthy ageing and that everyone, in particular lower-income groups, has access to health and social protection systems that reduce the impact on families of the growing demand for long-term care for older persons. It is critical to consider the situation of women, as they usually bear the burden of caring for family, including children and older persons.

Bibliography

Brignoli, H. P. (2022), América Latina en la transición demográfica (1800-2050), Buenos Aires, Editorial Teseo/Centro Centroamericano de Población, Universidad de Costa Rica.

Durán, M.Á. (2012), El trabajo no remunerado en la economía global, Fundación BBVA.

ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) (2022a), Ageing in Latin America and the Caribbean: inclusion and rights of older persons (LC/CRE.5/3), Santiago.

____(2022b), The care society: a horizon for sustainable recovery with gender equality (LC/CRM.15/3), Santiago.

____(2015), Operational guide for implementation and follow-up of the Montevideo Consensus on Population and Development (LC/L.4061(CRPD.2/3)/Rev.1), Santiago.

Gietel-Basten, S., S. E. G. Saucedo and S. Scherbov (2020), “Prospective measures of aging for Central and South America”, PloS one, vol. 15, No. 7.

Lee, R. (2020), “Population aging and the historical development of intergenerational transfer systems”, Genus, vol. 76, Nº 1.

Lesthaeghe, R. (2014), “The second demographic transition: A concise overview of its development”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 111, No. 51.

Montes de Oca, V. (2023), “Políticas y sistemas integrales de cuidados de largo plazo para las personas mayores: análisis de experiencias en América Latina y el Caribe”, Project Documents (LC/TS.2023/158), Santiago, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

United Nations (2024), World Population Prospects 2024 [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

____(2017), “Annex. Global indicator framework for the Sustainable Development Goals and targets of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”, Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 6 July 2017 (A/RES/71/313) [online] https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/n17/207/67/pdf/n1720767.pdf.

____(2003), World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision. Volume II: Sex and Age Distribution of Populations (ST/ESA/SER.A/223), New York.

____(2001), World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision. Volume II: Sex and Age Distribution of the World Population, New York.

Annex A1

Figure A1.1

Latin America (20 countries): crude birth rate, estimated and projected, 2002–2048

(Per 1,000)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, revisions to 2000 and 2024” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Figure A1.2

The Caribbean (27 countries and territories): crude birth rate, estimated and projected, 2002–2048

(Per 1,000)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, revisions to 2000 and 2024” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: The components of demographic change were not estimated in the 2000 revision for countries or territories with fewer than 140,000 inhabitants. Some of the figures therefore do not present data for that revision.

Figure A1.3

Latin America (20 countries): crude death rate, estimated and projected, 2002–2048

(Per 1,000)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, revisions to 2000 and 2024” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Figure A1.4

The Caribbean (27 countries and territories): crude death rate, estimated and projected, 2002–2048

(Per 1,000)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, revisions to 2000 and 2024” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: The components of demographic change were not estimated in the 2000 revision for countries or territories with fewer than 140,000 inhabitants. Some of the figures therefore do not present data for that revision.

Figure A1.5

Latin America (20 countries): difference between population growth rates and birth, death and migration rates of 2000 and 2024 revisions of World Population Prospects, 2002–2048

(Per 1,000)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, revisions to 2000 and 2024” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Figure A1.6

The Caribbean (12 countries and territories): difference between population growth rates and birth, death and migration rates of 2000 and 2024 revisions of World Population Prospects, 2002–2048

(Per 1,000)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, revisions to 2000 and 2024” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: The components of demographic change were not estimated in the 2000 revision for countries or territories with fewer than 140,000 inhabitants. As such, there are some Caribbean countries and territories for which figures are not included.

Figure A1.7

Latin America (20 countries): infant mortality rate, 1950–2050

(Number of deaths per 1,000 live births)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: This figure presents the medium scenario and 95% prediction interval of the 2024 revision of World Population Prospects, which means that there is a 95% probability that the projected values are within the indicated range.

Figure A1.8

The Caribbean (27 countries and territories): infant mortality rate, 1950–2050

(Number of deaths per 1,000 live births)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: This figure presents the medium scenario and 95% prediction interval of the 2024 revision of World Population Prospects, which means that there is a 95% probability that the projected values are within the indicated range.

Figure A1.9

Latin America (20 countries): life expectancy at birth, 1950–2050

(Years)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: This figure presents the medium scenario and 95% prediction interval of the 2024 revision of World Population Prospects, which means that there is a 95% probability that the projected values are within the indicated range.

Figure A1.10

The Caribbean (27 countries and territories): life expectancy at birth, 1950–2050

(Years)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: This figure presents the medium scenario and 95% prediction interval of the 2024 revision of World Population Prospects, which means that there is a 95% probability that the projected values are within the indicated range.

Figure A1.11

Latin America (20 countries): total fertility rate, 1950–2050

(Live births per woman)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: This figure presents the medium scenario and 95% prediction interval of the 2024 revision of World Population Prospects, which means that there is a 95% probability that the projected values are within the indicated range.

Figure A1.12

The Caribbean (27 countries and territories): total fertility rate, 1950–2050

(Live births per woman)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: This figure presents the medium scenario and 95% prediction interval of the 2024 revision of World Population Prospects, which means that there is a 95% probability that the projected values are within the indicated range.

Figure A1.13

Latin America (20 countries): age-specific fertility rate, by age group, 1950–2050

(Live births per 1,000 women)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Figure A1.14

The Caribbean (27 countries and territories): age-specific fertility rate, by age group, 1950–2050

(Live births per 1,000 women)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Figure A1.15

Latin America (20 countries): age-specific fertility rate, by age group, 2000, 2024 and 2050

(Number of live births per 1,000 women)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Figure A1.16

The Caribbean (27 countries and territories): age-specific fertility rate, by age group, 2000, 2024 and 2050

(Number of live births per 1,000 women)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Figure A1.17

Latin America (20 countries): total, child and old-age dependency ratios, 1950–2050

(Per 100)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: The child dependency ratio refers to the ratio between the number of children (aged 0–14) and the number of persons of working age (aged 15–64), multiplied by 100. The old-age dependency ratio is the ratio between the number of older persons (aged 65 and over) and persons of working age (aged 15–64), multiplied by 100. The total dependency ratio is the sum of the two.

Figure A1.18

The Caribbean (27 countries and territories): total, child and old-age dependency ratios, 1950–2050

(Per 100)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Note: The child dependency ratio refers to the ratio between the number of children (aged 0–14) and the number of persons of working age (aged 15–64), multiplied by 100. The old-age dependency ratio is the ratio between the number of older persons (aged 65 and over) and persons of working age (aged 15–64), multiplied by 100. The total dependency ratio is the sum of the two.

Figure A1.19

Latin America (20 countries): old-age dependency ratio, traditional and prospective, 1950–2050

(Per 100)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Figure A1.20

The Caribbean (27 countries and territories): old-age dependency ratio, traditional and prospective, 1950–2050

(Per 100)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Figure A1.21

Latin America (20 countries): units of total care, childcare and care for older persons per caregiver, 1950–2050

(Care units per person aged 15–64)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/ and M.Á. Durán, El trabajo no remunerado en la economía global, Fundación BBVA, 2012.

Figure A1.22

The Caribbean (27 countries or territories): units of total care, childcare and care for older persons per caregiver, 1950–2050

(Care units per person aged 15–64)

Source: Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Population estimates and projections, 2024 revision” [online] https://www.cepal.org/en/subtopics/demographic-projections/latin-america-and-caribbean-population-estimates-and-projections/population-estimates-and-projections-excel-tables and United Nations, World Population Prospects [online] https://population.un.org/wpp/ and M.Á. Durán, El trabajo no remunerado en la economía global, Fundación BBVA, 2012.

Table of Contents

Maintitle

Copyright

Contents

Foreword

Introduction

I. Population in Latin America and the Caribbean

II. Decomposing demographic change

III. Mortality

IV. Fertility

V. International migration

VI. Population ageing and implications for the demand for long-term care

VII. Conclusions

Bibliography

Annex A1