Maintitle

Copyrights

Alicia Bárcena

Executive Secretary

Antonio Prado

Deputy Executive Secretary

Juan Alberto Fuentes

Chief

Economic Development Division

Ricardo Pérez

Chief

Publications and Web Services Division

The Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean is an annual publication prepared by the Economic Development Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). This 2013 edition was prepared under the supervision of Juan Alberto Fuentes, Chief of the Division, while Jürgen Weller, Senior Officer for Economic Affairs in the same Division, was responsible for the overall coordination.

In the preparation of this edition, the Economic Development Division was assisted by the Statistics Division, the ECLAC subregional headquarters in Mexico City and Port of Spain, and the Commission’s country offices in Bogota, Brasilia, Buenos Aires, Montevideo and Washington, D.C.

The regional analyses were prepared by Juan Alberto Fuentes with input from the following experts: Luis Felipe Jiménez, Alexander Loschky, Cameron Daneshvar and Guillermo Fuentes (external sector), Ricardo Martner, Michael Hanni and Ivonne González (fiscal policy), Ramón Pineda, Rodrigo Cárcamo, Yusuke Tateno and Alejandra Acevedo (monetary, exchange-rate and macroprudential policies), Sandra Manuelito and Seung-jin Baek (activity and prices) and Jürgen Weller (employment and wages). The economic projections were produced by Sandra Manuelito, Alexander Loschky and Claudio Aravena with input from the national offices and subregional headquarters. Jazmín Chiu, Giannina López and Carolina Serpell were responsible for the processing and presentation of the statistical data and graphical presentations.

The country notes are based on studies conducted by the following experts: Olga Lucía Acosta, Dillon Alleyne, Rodrigo Cárcamo, Cameron Daneshvar, Maria Kristina Eisele, Guillermo Fuentes, Stefanie Garry, Randolph Gilbert, Michael Hanni, Michael Hendrickson, Juan Pablo Jiménez, Luis Felipe Jiménez, Osvaldo Kacef, Alexander Loschky, Sandra Manuelito, Rodolfo Minzer, Carlos Mussi, María Odriozola, Ramón Padilla, Machel Pantin, Renata Pardo, Willard Phillips, Indira Romero, Sebastián Valdecantos, Daniel Vega, Francisco Villarreal, Kohei Yoshida and Willy Zapata.

The country notes are available on line at www.eclac.org.

The cut-off date for the information presented in this publication was 29 November 2013.

Note:

The following symbols have been used in the tables shown in the Preliminary Overview:

- Three dots (…) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported.

- A dash (-) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible.

- A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals.

- The word “dollars” refers to United States dollars unless otherwise specified.

United Nations publication

ISBN: 978-92-1-121839-8 • ISSN printed version: 1014-7810

E-ISBN: 978-92-1-056243-0

LC/G.2581-P • Sales No.: E.14.II.G.2

Copyright © United Nations, February 2014. All rights reserved

Printed in Santiago, Chile • 2013-1098

Applications for the right to reproduce this work, either in whole or in part, should be sent to the Secretary of the Publications Board, United Nations Headquarters, New York, N.Y. 10017, United States. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and inform the United Nations of such reproduction.

Contents

Executive summary

Chapter I

Chapter II

Chapter III

Chapter IV

Chapter V

Chapter VI

Statistical annex

Executive summary

The global economy showed lacklustre growth and financial volatility in 2013

Global economic growth slipped from 2.4% in 2012 to 2.1% in 2013, as signs of recovery coincided with a high degree of financial volatility in the second half of the year. The eurozone economy again contracted in 2013, by 0.6% in annualized terms, as the ongoing financial crisis and the fiscal austerity programmes implemented to contain it have sapped domestic demand and weakened imports from the rest of the world. The United States posted modest growth in 2013, partly owing to the difficulty in reaching a fiscal policy agreement, which triggered automatic spending cuts.

The absence of lasting budget agreements and announcements of shifts in United States monetary policy also contributed to turbulence. In May and June 2013, international financial volatility spiked after the Federal Reserve announced that it might taper off its asset purchase programme, depending on the country’s economic performance and especially its unemployment rate. Financial agents attempted to prepare their portfolios for this shift, pushing up yields on United States financial assets and strengthening the dollar. The risk premiums of emerging economies, especially those of Latin America, climbed significantly from May. In September, with United States unemployment rates still topping the target level of 6.5%, the Federal Reserve made a new announcement to the effect that monetary policy changes were no longer imminent. As a result, stock indexes jumped, United States bond yields fell, and several Latin American currencies strengthened, to an extent reversing the effects of the initial announcement.

In 2013 the region maintained modest growth, driven by domestic demand

The Latin American and Caribbean region recorded GDP growth of 2.6% in 2013, down from 3.1% in 2012, testifying to the continuation of the economic slowdown apparent in the region since 2011. The countries’ growth rates differed significantly, however. Sluggish growth in the region in 2013 partly reflects the lacklustre performance of its two largest economies: Brazil (2.4%) and Mexico (1.3%).[1] Paraguay, Panama, Peru and the Plurinational State of Bolivia grew by more than 5%, while Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Guyana, Nicaragua and Uruguay posted growth of between 4% and 5%. Of the subregions, South America returned growth of 3.1%, slightly behind the 3.7% for the group formed by Central America plus the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Growth remained sluggish (1.3%) in the English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean.

Regional growth was driven primarily by robust domestic demand, in particular consumption, which added 2.8 percentage points to GDP growth, while investment contributed 0.9 percentage points. Net exports again contributed negatively to GDP growth (-0.8 percentage points), but less so than in previous years.

Unemployment fell once again in the region, edging down from 6.4% in 2012 to 6.3% in 2013; however this dip was due less to job creation than to a reduction in the labour supply, with a lower overall participation rate. In practice, weakening job creation, associated with slower growth in the most consumption-dependent and labour-intensive non-tradable sectors (commerce, construction and community, social and personal services), coincided with a decline in job-seeking within households owing to limited job opportunities and a favourable labour context for those already in work after several years of rising employment. Slackening job creation in 2013 caused youth unemployment to rise across the region, which may be attributed to the fact that new entrants to the labour market, many of whom are young people, are the first to be affected when job creation cools off.

TABLE 1

Total gross domestic product, variation rates

(On the basis of constant 2005 dollars)

Country

2011

2012

2013 a

2014 b

Argentina

8.9

1.9

4.5

2.6

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

5.2

5.2

6.4

5.5

Brazil

2.7

1.0

2.4

2.6

Chile

5.9

5.6

4.2

4.0

Colombia

6.6

4.2

4.0

4.5

Costa Rica

4.4

5.1

3.2

4.0

Cuba

2.8

3.0

3.0

3.0

Dominican Republic

4.5

3.9

3.0

5.0

Ecuador

7.8

5.1

3.8

4.5

El Salvador

2.2

1.9

1.7

2.6

Guatemala

4.2

3.0

3.4

3.5

Haiti

5.6

2.8

4.0

4.5

Honduras

3.8

3.9

2.6

3.0

Mexico

3.8

3.9

1.3

3.5

Nicaragua

5.4

5.2

4.6

5.0

Panama

10.9

10.8

7.5

7.0

Paraguay

4.3

-1.2

13.0

4.5

Peru

6.9

6.3

5.2

5.5

Uruguay

6.5

3.9

4.5

3.5

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

4.2

5.6

1.2

1.0

Subtotal for Central America, Haiti and Dominican Republic

5.1

4.7

3.7

4.5

Subtotal for Latin America

4.4

3.1

2.6

3.2

Antigua and Barbuda

-2.0

3.3

1.5

1.5

Bahamas

1.7

1.8

1.6

2.5

Barbados

0.8

0.0

-0.7

1.0

Belize

2.1

4.0

1.6

2.8

Dominica

0.2

-1.1

-0.5

1.2

Grenada

0.8

-1.8

1.5

1.3

Guyana

5.4

4.8

4.8

4.6

Jamaica

1.4

-0.5

0.1

1.2

Saint Kitts and Nevis

1.7

-1.2

1.6

2.9

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

-0.4

1.6

2.1

1.4

Saint Lucia

1.4

1.3

1.1

2.3

Suriname

4.7

4.4

3.9

4.7

Trinidad and Tobago

-1.6

1.5

1.6

2.1

Subtotal for the Caribbean

0.5

1.2

1.3

2.1

Latin America and the Caribbean

4.3

3.1

2.6

3.2

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Estimates.

b Projections.

The external sector deteriorated

In 2013 there was a clear deterioration in the external sector, with the balance-of-payments current account deficit widening from 1.8% of GDP in 2012 to 2.5% in 2013 as goods imports grew more rapidly than exports. This trend reflected a general downturn in the terms of trade across the region, moderately offset by increased export volumes.

In addition to the narrowing of the region’s goods trade surplus, the deficit on the services balance widened slightly owing to a fall-off in tourism and higher transport costs. The deficit on the income balance also crept up, on the back of increased profit remittances and dividend payments, primarily from Brazil and Mexico. The current transfers surplus shrank somewhat, showing the impact of a downtrend in remittances to Mexico, even though remittances increased in several Central American countries.

The deterioration of the external sector had a number of consequences. First, as noted above, real net exports continued to contribute negatively to GDP growth. Second, sluggish consumption growth reflected the fact that gross national disposable income rose by less than GDP, owing partly to the downturn in the terms of trade —which mainly affected the countries of South America— and partly to the decline in remittances flowing into Mexico.

Third, the deterioration in external conditions, with a widening wider current account deficit and shrinking disposable income, also pushed up the contribution of external savings to financing investment in the region, continuing a trend that commenced in 2010 after several years (2003-2007) in which investment had been funded by national savings. The fact that the gross investment to GDP ratio (measured in current dollars) remained constant and low (21.4%), with especially poor rates in some Central American countries, and with an increasing proportion of financing coming from external savings (whose financial costs will likely increase as monetary stimuli are withdrawn), presents challenges for the sustainability of future growth.

International financial volatility led to a shift in the composition of the balance-of-payments financial account in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2013, with three main components. First, net foreign direct investment remained high. Second, still-low international interest rates —albeit with expectations of possible increases in the future— continued to favour net portfolio investment in the region, especially in private corporate, sovereign and quasi-sovereign foreign bonds, including in a growing number of Central American and Caribbean countries.

Third, contrasting with the trend in portfolio investment, net outflows of the more volatile components of external financing increased as global yields rose on United States financial assets in response to announcements of an impending change in United States monetary policy. The net result of these three effects was that short-term capital outflows were offset by bond issues and inflows of foreign direct investment, and the balance of the financial account for the region as a whole remained virtually constant. The combination of a financial account surplus and a wider current account deficit brought the accumulation of international reserves to a standstill in 2013, ending a 10-year uptrend for the region as a whole, although there were divergences between countries.

Macroeconomic policies were directed towards sustaining domestic demand and addressing international financial volatility

Slackening growth and the deterioration of the external sector led to a loosening of fiscal targets in the region, made possible, in most countries, by highly favourable access to financing at historically low rates. Public spending rose modestly as a proportion of GDP in most of the countries, and included higher capital spending, with the exceptions of Brazil and Mexico. Worsening fiscal accounts in several hydrocarbon-exporting economies were largely due to higher public spending, while lower commodity prices eroded fiscal income in the countries that export minerals and metals.

Serious fiscal imbalances remained in certain Central and South American countries, while in several Caribbean countries these imbalances coincided with limited borrowing room, forcing them to embark upon difficult fiscal adjustment processes. The overall deficit for Latin America stood at 2.4% of GDP, and the primary deficit, adjusted for interest payments, at 0.6% of GDP. This was the poorest performance since 2009. The Caribbean posted a narrower overall deficit than in 2012, at 3.0% of GDP.

In the second half of 2013, the average inflation rate of the Latin American and Caribbean countries was slightly up on the preceding months, so that mean inflation trended upwards over the year. The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and Argentina posted the region’s highest inflation rates, followed by Jamaica, the Plurinational State of Bolivia and Uruguay. However, inflation rates of under 5% prevailed in most of the region’s economies.

Amid prospects for lower inflation, slower economic growth and financial instability, many countries directed their monetary policy towards sustaining domestic demand and preparing for international financial volatility by lowering policy interest rates —in the case of economies with inflation-targeting schemes, with the exception of Brazil— or seeking stable growth in monetary aggregates. Financial instability and an easing of upward pressure on currencies slowed the accumulation of international reserves, and some countries intervened directly in the currency markets or implemented macroprudential measures to stave off greater exchange-rate fluctuations.

Outlook for 2014

Stronger external demand and an uptick in consumption will help to boost growth in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2014

Recent developments in the United States, Japanese and European economies, combined with a Chinese economy that performed slightly better than initially expected, have brightened expectations somewhat for 2014. Forecasts place the global economy’s growth rate at 2.9%, with growth picking up in both developed and developing countries. GDP growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to rally somewhat and the region could post a rate of around 3.2%, on the assumption of improving external conditions driving export growth. An upturn in the regional growth rate will depend, in part, on continued recovery in Mexico and better growth performance in Brazil, both of whose growth rates lagged the regional average in 2013.

Rising private consumption will continue to contribute to regional growth in 2014, although less vigorously than in previous years. Disposable income will grow at below-GDP rates owing to scant gains in the terms of trade or in remittances. Other factors in the loss of momentum in private consumption are the slowdown in lending already apparent in the region in 2013, the lacklustre expansion of the wage bill as the region’s growth becomes less labour-intensive, and more restrained real wage growth. For reasons which are outlined below, fiscal policy in the region as a whole is unlikely to boost consumption significantly. In this context, higher growth rates will be largely dependent on opportunities for boosting exports and investment in the region.

Export growth is likely, but the external sector will remain somewhat vulnerable

The partial upturn in the global economy could create some space for boosting regional export volumes, exports of services (particularly tourism) and remittance receipts. Nevertheless, goods and services imports could expand faster than exports as buoyant consumption and expectations of rising investment buoy domestic demand in the region. The risk here is that the region’s balance-of-payments current account will continue to deteriorate, as has been the case since 2010, but now the deficit will likely be costlier to finance, given the prospect that the monetary stimulus measures implemented by the United States and other countries will be gradually withdrawn.

Amid expectations that global demand for commodities will slacken, net foreign direct investment flows could drop slightly, and if, as expected, the United States Federal Reserve tapers off its asset purchases in 2014, the resulting contraction in international liquidity could lead to smaller inflows of portfolio investment and new external financial outflows, in particular more volatile components such as short-term deposits. In short, net inflows of external financial resources will likely be smaller in 2014 in the region overall. The risks and constraints accompanying this scenario could affect countries to varying degrees, since economies with significant reserves, low external debt and broad access to international capital markets will fare better than those without those advantages.

Fiscal policy challenges will grow while monetary, exchange-rate and macroprudential policies will continue along similar lines in most countries

The international liquidity squeeze expected in 2014 will likely tighten borrowing conditions and curb public spending growth, possibly —depending on economic growth— marking the beginning of a slightly more difficult period of fiscal adjustment. This situation, amid mounting demands from citizens and shrinking tax bases, could lead the authorities to look at tax reforms to generate more revenue, especially as new governments take office in several countries.

Monetary and macroprudential policy in the region is expected to be loosened during the first few months of 2014, in order to stimulate economic growth in light of low inflation rates in most countries. In other words, given the slowdown in lending observed in 2013, measures will continue to be adopted in 2014 to expand credit volume and reduce its cost, by lowering reserve requirements in some cases and cutting interest rates in others.

The global economy in 2014 will present opportunities and threats for Latin America and the Caribbean

The currency depreciation seen in several countries in the region in recent months, possibly strengthened by a shift in future financial flows towards developed countries, could, if sustained, increase incentives for investment in tradable sectors other than the region’s traditional exports (commodities), while redirecting expenditure to ease pressure on the current account. Complementary growth-supporting industrial, trade, environmental, social and labour policies that take into account the needs of small and medium-sized enterprises, could help to lessen the region’s structural heterogeneity. The pathway of growth combined with greater equality would thus gain economic and social sustainability, with greater reliance from investment and exports than in the recent past. As discussed in other ECLAC documents, this combination would be aided by social covenants for investment.

Uncertainties that have plagued the external environment in recent years remain current: these include the possibility of fiscal contraction and sluggish growth in the United States if the country is unable to reach an agreement on the public debt ceiling, and an uncertain outlook in a number of eurozone countries that have yet to resolve public finance difficulties, as public fatigue sets in and resistance to adjustments builds. In addition, announcements by the United States regarding the tapering of quantitative easing and the impacts of this represent just the first step in a process of global liquidity and monetary policy adjustment in developed countries in the wake of the global financial crisis. Central bank balance sheets expanded considerably in developed economies in response to the crisis, and have yet to be restored. Regaining balance sheet sustainability will take time and will require significant adjustments in public and private finances.

Chapter I

The international context

In 2013, the global economy showed lacklustre growth, with signs of some recovery in the second half of the year, and a high degree of financial volatility. Global economic growth slipped from 2.4% to 2.1%, matched by slower growth in both developed and developing countries (see figure I.1). According to information from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) from July 2013, the eurozone economy again contracted in 2013, by 0.6% in annualized terms. This was caused by the continuation of the financial crisis and efforts to contain it, largely in the form of fiscal austerity programmes that sapped domestic demand and weakened imports from the rest of the world.

FIGURE I.1

Real GDP growth by region and selected country groupings, 2010-2014

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of United Nations, “World Economic Situation and Prospects. Monthly Briefing”, New York, October 2013.

a Estimates.

b Projections.

During 2013, there were signs of an end to the downturn and incipient recovery as the economic contraction eased in some countries, expectations rose among consumers and purchasing managers, and unemployment rates came down, albeit remaining high. Country risk premiums decreased considerably, and political risk receded in Greece, Italy and Portugal, although some uncertainty remains over whether certain countries can exit the crisis (austerity fatigue in Portugal and warnings of a new bailout for Greece in 2014).

The European Central Bank (ECB) indicated that it would continue to pursue monetary stimulus policies for some time to come, maintaining low interest rates and not ruling out further cuts. Accordingly, in early November 2013 the ECB lowered its benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.25%, a new all-time low.

The United States posted modest growth in 2013, amid difficulties over a fiscal policy agreement which triggered automatic spending cuts, and the effects of the financial crisis, which have yet to be fully addressed. Fiscal expenditure was estimated to have dropped by about 5% in 2013, with respect to 2012. The budget deficit narrowed from 8.3% of GDP in 2012 to 5.8% in 2013, with 2 percentage points contributed by higher revenues and 0.5 by spending cuts, representing a considerable consolidation effort.[2] These contractionary factors were partially offset by rising private demand, sustained by the beginning of an upturn in lending and employment. During the last quarter, the lack of a budget agreement led to the temporary shutdown of several government institutions, while only a very short-term postponement (until February 2014) was achieved in negotiations over a new public debt ceiling.

Meanwhile, announcements of changes in United States monetary policy also contributed to turbulence. In May and June 2013, international financial market volatility spiked after the United States Federal Reserve announced a possible tapering of its asset purchase programme, depending on the country’s economic performance and especially its unemployment rate. Financial agents attempted to anticipate this change by adapting their portfolios, pushing up returns on United States financial assets and strengthening the dollar. Consequently, the currencies of emerging economies, especially those most integrated into international financial markets, came under downward pressure. In addition, the risk premiums of emerging countries, particularly those of Latin America, climbed significantly from May. In September, with unemployment still above the target level of 6.5%, the Federal Reserve made a new announcement, postponing the changes in its monetary policy. As a result, stock indexes jumped, United States bonds yields fell, and the currencies of several Latin American countries strengthened, to an extent reversing the effects of the initial announcement.

Lower growth in developed countries resulted in a drop in demand for developing country exports. China in particular saw its growth rate fall in relation to previous years, as its export growth slowed. This has led to a major rebalancing of the country’s development strategy, designed to boost consumption at the expense of exports and investment.

The first signs of a turning point in the world economy began to appear in the second half of the year. Several developed economies, and especially the United States, showed signs of early recovery with an upturn in production and employment levels, and improvements in leading indicators. Meanwhile, the performance of some eurozone countries, whose activity levels had slumped in 2012 and the first half of 2013, suggested an end to the downturn in the second half of the year. Recent economic trends in Europe, Japan and the United States, along with a Chinese economy that performed slightly better than initially expected, have brightened expectations somewhat for 2014. Global economic expansion is projected at 2.9% as growth recovers in both developed and developing countries.

Chapter II

Economic activity

Growth remained low in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2013

The Latin American and Caribbean region recorded GDP growth of 2.6% in 2013, down from 3.1% in 2012. The 2013 performance represented a gain of 1.6% (2.0% in 2012) in the region’s per capita GDP, less than half the average growth rate for this indicator over 2004-2008 (3.7%). These results testify to the continuation of the economic slowdown that has beleaguered the region since 2011. Aside from the regional performance, the countries’ growth rates differed significantly. Sluggish regional growth in 2013 partly reflects the lacklustre performance of the two largest economies in Latin America and the Caribbean: Brazil (2.4%) and Mexico (1.3%).[3] Excluding these two countries, the region’s GDP rose by 4.1%. Economic growth was most robust in Paraguay (13%), followed by Panama (7.5%), the Plurinational State of Bolivia (6.4%) and Peru (5.2%). The economies of Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Guyana, Haiti, Nicaragua and Uruguay grew at between 4% and 5% (see figure II.1).

FIGURE II.1

Latin America and the Caribbean: GDP growth projections, 2013

(Percentages based on dollars at constant 2005 prices)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

Of the subregions, South America posted growth of 3.1% (compared with 2.5% in 2012), slightly behind the 3.7% for the group formed by Central America plus the Dominican Republic and Haiti (4.7% in 2012). Growth remained sluggish in the English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean (1.3%), with Barbados (-0.7%) and Dominica (-0.5%) recording negative growth and the Jamaican economy at a virtual standstill (0.1%).

The slowdown in regional growth until the first quarter of 2013 was partially reversed in the following quarters. Nevertheless, regional quarterly GDP growth rates are well below those of 2010 and 2011 (see figure II.2).

FIGURE II.2

Latin America and the Caribbean: quarterly gross domestic product, variation in relation to the same quarter of the previous year, 2010 to third quarter 2013

(Percentages based on dollars at constant 2005 prices)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

As in previous years, domestic demand boosted growth

Regional growth was primarily driven by robust domestic demand (see figure II.3), thanks to both consumption, which added 2.8 percentage points to GDP growth, and investment, which contributed 0.9 percentage points. Net exports again contributed negatively to GDP growth (-0.8 percentage points), but less so than in previous years. Growth in consumption was largely underpinned by private consumption (up 3.4%), which nevertheless lost momentum despite outpacing GDP. This, in turn, was largely a reflection of employment and the wage bill, which continued to rise in the region, but more slowly than before. Public consumption also posted slacker growth, at 2.5%, the lowest rate since 2003.

Gross fixed capital formation expanded by 4.7% in the region, fuelled by investment in machinery and equipment. Construction activity saw a modest upturn, as well, although with uneven performances between countries: contractions in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and the Dominican Republic, and increases that topped 10% in Panama, Paraguay and Peru. Measured as a percentage of GDP based on dollars at constant 2005 prices, gross fixed capital formation stood at 23.2%, or 0.5 percentage points higher than the 2012 figure.

Gross domestic investment slowed, which indicates an adjustment in the accumulation of inventories in the region. Measured in current dollars, gross domestic investment remained at 21.4% of GDP, equivalent to the 2012 ratio and significantly lower than in rapidly growing countries such as India and China, where it exceeds (sometimes comfortably) 30% of GDP.

Goods and services imports increased by 4.9% in constant terms (a similar rate to that observed in 2012), reflecting the performance of domestic demand. Real exports of goods and services were up by 2.3% (compared with 3.1% in 2012), continuing the slowdown that began in 2010. The regional figure notwithstanding, in Chile, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay and the Plurinational State of Bolivia, exports of goods and services grew by more than 5% in real terms.

FIGURE II.3

Latin America: GDP variation and contribution to growth by the components of domestic demand and net exports, 2002-2013a

(Percentages based on dollars at constant 2005 prices)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The figures for 2013 are projections.

Commerce, construction and financial and business services were more buoyant

Private consumption, which was the main driver of GDP growth in 2013, boosted increased activity in the commerce sector, while the return of normal weather conditions allowed the agricultural sectors of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay to post higher growth rates. Robust activity in commerce, restaurants and hotels also benefited from tourism growth in 2013, although the increase in international tourist arrivals was smaller than in 2012. According to figures from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) for the first eight months of 2013, international tourist arrivals rose by 3.0% year-on-year in Central America (7.3% in 2012), 1.6% in South America (5.0% in 2012) and 0.1% in the Caribbean (3.7% in 2012).

Mining activity posted no gain over 2012 at the regional level, although Nicaragua, Panama, the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Uruguay and some economies of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) posted double-digit expansion. Manufacturing also performed modestly, with the countries generally experiencing low growth. Although the construction sector posted annual growth of less than 2% for the region, performance differed widely between countries. Antigua and Barbuda, Colombia, Grenada and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines saw construction activity surge by over 10%, while Nicaragua and Panama posted rates of over 20%. The sector posted a decline in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Mexico and some Central American and Caribbean economies, however.

Chapter III

Employment and wages

Job creation slowed

Preliminary information shows that unemployment fell once again in the region, albeit edging down very slightly from 6.4% in 2012 to 6.3% in 2013. Contrasting with the robust performance of the labour market in 2012, however, this year the dip in unemployment was not due to job creation but rather to a reduction in the labour supply, expressed as a lower overall participation rate.

Job creation lost momentum during 2013. After a steady climb from 2002 (with a rate of 51.8%) to 2012 (55.9%), interrupted only by the outbreak of the economic and financial crisis in 2009, the rate tailed off, albeit by just 0.1 of a percentage point. This slight fall-off contrasts with the 0.4 percentage-point rise recorded in 2012, despite a similar economic growth rate in both years.

As shown in table III.1, in 2012 employment-output elasticity exceeded 1 —a level that is not normally sustainable— in some countries, including Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, whose size affords them a significant impact on the region’s weighted averages.[4]

TABLE III.1

Latin America and the Caribbean (selected countries): simple employment-output elasticity and wage employment-output elasticity, 2012 and 2013

Elasticities 2012

Elasticities 2013 a

Employment

Wage employment

Employment

Wage employment

Argentina b

31 conurbations

0.38

0.35

0.24

0.09

Brazil

Six metropolitan areas

2.15

2.62

0.46

0.42

Chile

National total

0.33

0.75

0.45

0.52

Colombia

National total

0.85

1.25

0.34

1.05

Costa Rica

National total

0.22

0.42

0.16

-0.09

Dominican Republic

National total

0.52

0.91

-0.10

0.33

Ecuador

National total

0.41

0.78

0.33c

…

El Salvador

National total

2.29

1.86

…

…

Honduras

National total

0.17

-2.18

2.88

3.27

Jamaica

National total

0.77

…

4.30

…

Mexico

National total

0.83

1.11

0.46

1.46

Panama

National total

0.51

0.53

0.45

0.40

Peru

Metropolitan Lima

0.26

0.76

0.50

0.29

Uruguay

National total

0.04

…

-0.04

…

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

National total

0.28

0.64

2.42

3.17

Latin America and the Caribbean

Median

0.40

0.75

0.45

0.40

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Based on projected economic growth for the year and year-on-year growth in employment between the first and third quarters.

b Job creation refers to the first half-year.

c Refers to the urban total.

Job creation slowed in 2013 and, in several of the region’s larger countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, employment-output elasticity fell sharply. Although these falls were offset in the regional median by increases in other countries (Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Chile, Honduras, Jamaica and Peru), with the ratio of GDP growth to employment growth falling in the larger economies, 2013 employment growth slipped below trend of recent years (see figure III.1). In particular, the output elasticity of wage employment dropped in the median.

FIGURE III. 1

Latin America and the Caribbean: economic growth and employment rate, 2000-2013

(Percentages and percentage points)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Projections.

Wage employment grew faster than total employment in most countries. For the 12 economies for which comparable information was available, wage employment rose by 1.6%, as against 1.2% for total employment. However, wage employment growth was considerably down on the 2012 figure of 3.1%, and lagged total employment in a few countries.

As figure III.2 shows, job creation slowed more sharply during the first three quarters of the year. Year-on-year, the employment rate increased slightly in the first quarter of 2013, but slipped in the second and third. The figure also shows the fall in the unemployment rate flattening in 2013 compared with previous years; nevertheless, unemployment continued to decline year-on-year in all four quarters.

FIGURE III.2

Latin America and the Caribbean (10 countries): year-on-year variation in employment and unemployment rates, first-quarter 2008 to third-quarter of 2013

(Percentage points)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

The positive trend in the unemployment rate was attributable to slower expansion of the economically active population, reflecting a lower labour market participation rate. Even so, at the regional level, the long-term rise in the female participation rate has clearly continued, whereas the male participation rate has diminished. As shown in figure III.3, the gaps between the male and female employment and unemployment rates have narrowed.

FIGURE III.3

Latin America and the Caribbean (15 countries): year-on-year variation in the participation, employment and unemployment rates by sex, average for the first to third quarters of 2013

(Percentage points)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

Youth unemployment has risen

Slackening job creation seems to have impacted young people the most, with the employment rate falling and the unemployment rising for young people practically throughout the region (see table III.2). Conversely, the adult employment rate rose slightly and the unemployment rate declined in most countries. In some countries, including Brazil, Chile and Peru, the fall in the employment rate also reflected lower participation by young people in the labour market, contrasting with zero growth in the adult participation rate in these countries. This may be due in part to the long-term tendency for young people to remain longer in the education system, but another contributing factor in 2013 was undoubtedly the fact that new entrants to the labour market (among whom young people are overrepresented, for obvious reasons) are the first to be affected when job creation cools off.

TABLE III.2

Latin America and the Caribbean (selected countries): variation in the youth and adult participation, employment and unemployment rates, average for the first to third quarters of 2013 compared with the same period of the previous year

(Percentage points)

Participation rate

Employment rate

Unemployment rate

Youth

Adult

Youth

Adult

Youth

Adult

Argentina

0.7

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

1.7

0.0

Brazil

-0.9

-0.1

-1.1

0.0

0.5

-0.1

Chile

-1.1

0.0

-0.8

0.3

-0.4

-0.5

Colombia

-1.1

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

-1.0

-0.6

Dominican Republic

-1.2

-0.7

-0.6

-1.2

-0.6

0.9

Honduras

3.5

2.7

2.9

2.4

0.8

0.4

Jamaica

1.1

1.2

-0.9

0.5

4.7

0.8

Panama

0.5

0.7

0.2

0.7

0.5

-0.1

Peru

-1.3

0.1

-0.7

1.0

-0.8

-1.2

Uruguay

0.0

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

0.9

0.0

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

0.2

0.1

0.5

0.3

-0.9

-0.3

Latin America and the Caribbean, median

0.0

0.0

-0.4

0.3

0.5

-0.1

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on the basis of official figures.

Note: Youth refers to persons aged 15-24 year, except in Argentina (14-29), Colombia (14-28), Peru (14-24) and Dominican Republic (10-19). In Argentina, the data are averages for males and females in the respective age groups.

The slowdown in job creation also reflects the trend in formal employment. Figure III.4 shows that 2013 growth rates for this type of better-quality employment were down on the 2012 figure almost across the board. Moreover, formal employment generation slowed noticeably in many countries throughout the year.

FIGURE III.4

Latin America (selected countries): year-on-year variation in formal employment, first quarter 2012 to third quarter 2013

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

The counterpart to lower employment-output elasticity is higher labour productivity. The meagre 0.9% rise estimated in the weighted average of this indicator for the region overall in 2012 chiefly reflects the performance of Brazil and Mexico, since the simple average gain for 14 countries was 1.5%. Preliminary data for 2013 point to a 1.6% improvement in weighted average labour productivity for the region, with a simple average of 2.5%.

With employment growth slowing, so did growth in the wage bill, which cooled private consumption

In most countries for which information was available, growth in real wages slowed slightly (see statistical annex table A.21) owing to smaller increases in nominal wages, probably reflecting slackening demand for labour and, in some cases, an uptick in inflation. The countries where real wages gained more than in 2012 (Chile, Colombia and Paraguay) posted lower year-on-year inflation rates, based on the cumulative average for the first three quarters.

Slowing job creation and the smaller increases in real labour income resulted in a smaller wage bill expansion than the previous year. After climbing 5.4% in 2012, the wage bill (weighted average for nine countries) rose just 2.7% in 2013, which weakened household consumption as a driver of demand and, thus, as an engine of economic growth.

In 2013, several countries took steps to strengthen integration into the labour market, protect the unemployed, improve working conditions for specific groups or improve the efficiency of institutions (see table III.3).

In short, one of the outcomes of the modest economic growth was a slowdown in job creation, as weakening labour demand slowed wage employment creation and formal employment growth. Real wages were up by less than in 2012, albeit not in all the countries, such that total labour income drove domestic demand growth less strongly. While cooling job creation hurt youth labour indicators (employment, unemployment), the regionwide aggregate showed modest improvements (admittedly with differences from one country to the next). In particular, the unemployment rate was slightly down and wage employment —normally of better quality— climbed more vigorously than non-wage employment. A contributing factor in this seems to have been the robust job creation of the past decade: because the labour context has become relatively more favourable (a higher average employment rate per household), the weaker demand for labour did not, as in the past, force households to resort in large numbers to own-account work to offset income losses. This may also have played a part in reducing the participation rate, which, in turn helped to bring down the unemployment rate.

TABLE III.3

New labour policies, 2013

Argentina

Domestic workers extended the same entitlements as other workers.

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

Introduction of a second annual bonus, subject to GDP growth of at least 4.5%.

A decree that facilitates takeover by workers of firms undergoing bankruptcy proceedings.

Brazil

A change in the Constitution to give domestic workers the same rights as other wage-earning workers.

Chile

Establishment of the Office of the Superintendant for Safety and Security in the Workplace.

Colombia

Law No.1636 “establishing the mechanism for unemployment protection”, which comes under the public employment service. Establishment of legal basis for formalization of agreements between companies and labour inspection authorities. Mandatory membership in the General Labour Risk Prevention System for all persons with a formal job contract.

Cuba

Definition and expansion of the list of activities for which own account work is authorized.

Nicaragua

Introduction of oral legal proceedings on labour issues.

Paraguay

Youth Employment Integration Act, for fostering training and integration of young people aged 18 to 29 by means of new contractual arrangements, promotion of sound labour practices and hiring subsidies.

Peru

Establishment of guidelines for facilitating the economic and social integration of migrants who are returning to their home country owing to the critical economic situation in other countries.

Uruguay

Extension of maternity and paternity leave; Youth Employment Act, which establishes four procedures for fostering integration of young people into the labour market: first job experience, labour practices, internships, jobs that benefit from protection and promotion (by means of subsidies).

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information from the respective countries.

Chapter IV

The external sector

Deterioration of the balance-of-payments current account

Rising imports and stagnant exports in 2013, reflected in a narrower trade surplus, were the main but not the only explanation for the wider current account deficit for the region as a whole with respect to 2012 (see figure IV.1). As a proportion of GDP, the deficit widened from 1.8% in 2012 to 2.5% in 2013. The hydrocarbon-exporting economies posted a current account deficit (0.7%) for the first time in several years. The group formed by Central America (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama), Haiti and the Dominican Republic recorded the largest average deficit in the region (6.4%), though there were significant differences between the countries, with the deficit ranging from 16.2% in Panama to 3.0% in Haiti. That group was followed by the exporters of minerals and metals —Chile and Peru— with a deficit of 3.9% (Chile posted a deficit of 2.7% and Peru 5.4%).

FIGURE IV.1

Latin America: current account structure, 2006-2013a

(Percentages of GDP)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The figures for 2013 are projections.

The region’s balance-of-payment flows have deteriorated steadily over the past few years, reflecting its external vulnerability, which sharpens as higher international interest rates drive up the cost of covering this gap. With export values losing momentum and domestic demand resilient in most of the region’s countries, imports have grown faster than exports in recent years and continued to do so in 2013. As a result, the goods balance for the region as a whole deteriorated significantly, with its surplus narrowing from 0.9% of GDP in 2012 to 0.3% of GDP in 2013.

Meanwhile, the services trade deficit remained unchanged owing in part to slower growth in tourist arrivals in most countries. The stagnation of remittance inflows, attributable to leaner flows to Mexico (the leading recipient of remittances in the region), was reflected in a narrower transfers surplus. Meanwhile, the income balance deficit, measured in terms of GDP, increased slightly over 2012.

Slight deterioration in the terms of trade

Since mid-2011 the prices of several export commodities in the region have trended downwards, which may be viewed as part of a medium- to long-term stagnation or even a gradual decline in the prices of these goods, caused by, among other factors, more moderate growth in China (the main destination for several of the region’s primary products), sluggish growth in the developed economies and an increase in global supply of commodities.

Food prices fell by a year-on-year average of 7.8% in the first 10 months of 2013, while the price of tropical beverages dropped by 27.8% (see figure IV.2). The lower food prices were attributable mainly to the sharp drop (19.0% year-on-year) in the price of sugar (owing to overproduction and the withdrawal of speculative funds) and, to a lesser extent, the price of bananas (down 6.6%) and maize (down 7.5%). A 30% fall in coffee prices caused the decline in the price of tropical beverages. Certain Central American countries and Colombia were hardest hit by these price reductions.

FIGURE IV.2

Latin America: price indices for export commodities a and manufactured goods, 2009-2013

(Index: 2005=100, three-month moving average)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).

a The commodity groups are weighted by their share of Latin American exports.

Mineral and metal prices picked up initially in 2013, following their fall in 2012, only to subsequently relapse. Year-on-year price declines were recorded for copper (7.6%), a major export product for Peru and Chile, and for gold (13.1%). The price of iron, a key product for Brazil, recorded a small 1.1% increase.

The price of oil and oilseeds also started the year down owing to the good harvest of 2012/2013, but picked up subsequently, while prices of forestry and agricultural raw materials and energy held steady during 2013. Oil prices also remained relatively stable during 2013 (with some minor fluctuations) despite certain geopolitical tensions and the increasing use of gas in the United States.

The region as a whole is expected to see a 2.5% decline in its terms of trade in 2013 (see figure IV.3). That deterioration will be sharper than average in South America (-2.8%) owing mainly to the downward trend in the prices of minerals and metals, which will cause the terms of trade for Chile and Peru to fall by 4.6%. The exporters of agro-industrial products (Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay) will see a 2.3% decline. The hydrocarbon-exporting countries (Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Plurinational State of Bolivia and Trinidad and Tobago) experienced a 2.8% deterioration due to lower export prices. Brazil’s terms of trade worsened only slightly (-0.7 %) as the moderate rise in the prices of its imports was partially offset by the higher price of iron (the country’s main export product).

FIGURE IV.3

Latin America: estimated variation in the terms of trade, 2009-2013a

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The figures for 2013 are projections.

b Chile and Peru.

c Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.

d Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Plurinational State of Bolivia, and Trinidad and Tobago.

e Excluding Trinidad and Tobago.

Despite the fall in the prices of food and fuel, of which the Caribbean and Central American countries are not importers, these two subregions will see their terms of trade worsen slightly owing to the sharp slump in the price of their leading exports, especially sugar and coffee. Mexico is a case apart, because of its unique export structure, largely based on manufactured goods, which meant that falling prices for its main export commodities (gold, copper, silver, steel products and oil) did not have a major impact on its terms of trade.

The current account deteriorated owing to a narrower goods trade surplus and a slightly wider deficit on the services balance

As a result of the protracted crisis in Europe, sluggish growth in the United States and the economic slowdown in China, growth in imports by these major economic areas remains low or negative (see figure IV.4). With demand in the major economies picking up only slowly, the region’s exports are expected to grow at a very low rate (0.4%) in 2013, even less than in 2012 (1.6%), which followed two years (2010 and 2011) of export growth of around 25%. In 2013, the metal-exporting countries (Chile and Peru) experienced a 2.7% contraction in goods exports, while exports from the hydrocarbon-exporting countries (Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador and the Plurinational State of Bolivia) were down by 4.4%.

Following the pattern seen in 2012, and in contrast to the boom years for commodity prices, in 2013, the 2.1% fall in prices cut into export values, which edged up a mere 0.4% in 2013, and a 2.6% increase in volume was the only factor preventing an even sharper fall in export values in some countries. In South America (excluding Brazil), in particular, 2.4% growth in volume staved off a sharper fall. Brazil saw only a slight rise in its export volumes (1.5%), owing to sluggish demand among its main trading partners (Europe and China), ultimately recording only a 0.2% value increase because of the 1.2% drop in the prices of its exports (see figure IV.5).

FIGURE IV.4

Year-on-year variation in the imports of the European Union,a United States,

China and the BRICSb countries (excluding China),

first-quarter 2011 to third-quarter 2012

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the World Trade Organization (WTO).

a Extraregional trade of 27 countries.

b Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa.

FIGURE IV.5

Latin America: estimated variation in export values, by volume and price, 2013

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

As in 2012, prices varied less for imports than for exports. An estimated 89% of import growth in the region was attributable to larger volumes and only 11% to higher prices. Import prices stood still in South America (excluding Brazil) and even fell in Brazil and in Central America, the Dominican Republic and Haiti (see figure IV.6). With export growth slack and imports rising moderately, the goods trade surplus contracted sharply from 0.9% of GDP in 2012 to 0.3% in 2013.

The region’s services deficit remained unchanged from 2012, at 1.4%, and was largest in the hydrocarbon-exporting countries (Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador and the Plurinational State of Bolivia). The countries that are most dependent on tourism saw divergent trends. The Central American countries, together with Haiti and the Dominican Republic, posted a services surplus and, while tourist numbers continued to rise moderately in those countries and in Mexico, tourist arrivals stagnated in the Caribbean countries (see figure IV.7). Continued weak growth in the United States and the recession in the European Union, from where the bulk of tourists to the two subregions originate, heavily constrained the tourism industry’s performance. In the case of South America, slow economic growth in the region took a toll on intraregional tourism and business travel.

FIGURE IV.6

Latin America: estimated variation in import values, by volume and price, 2013

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

FIGURE IV.7

Latin America and the Caribbean: year-on-year variation in international tourist arrivals, 2009-January-August 2013

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

The deficit on the income balance widened while the current transfers surplus shrank slightly

The income balance deteriorated slightly to yield a deficit of 2.5% of GDP for the region overall, owing mainly to larger outflows —made up principally of profit remittances by foreign companies— from Mexico (8.8%) and Brazil (6.9%). As a result, the income deficit of these two countries widened by 16.0% and 9.6%, respectively. In Colombia, another country with substantial profit remittances, outflows declined by 5.2% and the balance improved by 4.9%.[5]

Current transfers, which in Latin America and the Caribbean consist principally of remittances from workers abroad, fell slightly and ended the year at 1.0% of GDP. However, patterns in remittances varied across the region (see figure IV.8). Thus far in 2013, Costa Rica, which started from a small base, reported the largest increase in remittances (10.5% year-on-year for the first half of 2013), followed by Honduras and Nicaragua (8.9% and 6.3% in the first nine months). The United States was the primary source of remittances received by Costa Rica and Honduras, while Nicaragua received the bulk of its inflows from Costa Rica. The largest declines in remittances were seen in Ecuador (5.1% in the first half of 2013) and Mexico (5.9% in the first nine months). The drop in remittances to Ecuador reflects the difficult employment situation in Spain and Italy, the main destination countries for its workers. The recent downtrend in remittances to Mexico is due to structural and cyclical factors, including the concentration of Mexican workers in the United States in the economic sectors that suffered most during and after the global economic and financial crisis (construction, manufacturing and commerce); migratory regulations that seem to affect Mexicans to a greater extent than other groups;[6] and the fact that the number of Mexican migrants to the United States has plateaued and even declined slightly.[7]

FIGURE IV.8

Latin America and the Caribbean (selected countries): variation in income from emigrant remittances, 2011-2013

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

International financial volatility prompted a change in the composition of the financial account in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2013

In 2012, the region received a fairly steady flow of net external financing similar to the levels of 2012. With a much wider current account deficit, however, accumulation of international reserves was much smaller in 2013 than in previous years —indeed, the lowest since the early 2000s.

Developments in the financial account were attributable to tensions in the international financial markets in 2013, especially as a result of uncertainty surrounding United States monetary policy and the use of foreign reserves to lessen currency depreciation in several countries in the region (see table IV.1). This was just the opposite of the situation in previous years, when many monetary authorities accumulated reserves to avert local currency appreciation.

TABLE IV.1

Latin America (17 countries): components of the balance of payments

(Millions of dollars)

Current account balance

Capital and financial accounts (including errors and omissions)

Reserves and related items a

2010

2011

2012

2013 b

2010

2011

2012

2013 b

2010

2011

2012

2013 b

Argentina

1 360

-2 173

-57

-2 971

2 798

-3 935

-3 248

-7 087

-4 157

6 108

3 305

10 058

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

766

77

2 127

1 321

157

2 083

-416

-998

-923

-2 160

-1 712

-323

Brazil

-47 272

-52 474

-54 230

-77 624

96 373

111 111

73 130

73 024

-49 101

-58 637

-18 900

4 600

Chile

3 224

-3 283

-9 497

-7 725

-200

17 473

9 130

7 234

-3 024

-14 190

367

491

Colombia

-8 919

-9 839

-12 173

-12 453

12 055

13 583

17 596

18 278

-3 136

-3 744

-5 423

-5 824

Costa Rica

-1 281

-2 195

-2 374

-2 284

1 842

2 328

4 484

2 825

-561

-132

-2 110

-541

Ecuador

-1 608

-225

-177

-1 770

395

497

-405

3 339

1 212

-272

582

-1 569

El Salvador

-576

-1 070

-1 258

-1 712

281

656

1 907

1 387

295

414

-649

326

Guatemala

-563

-1 599

-1 447

-1 673

1 240

1 805

1 946

1 937

-677

-206

-499

-264

Honduras

-682

-1 408

-1 587

-1 038

1 251

1 477

1 304

1 027

-569

-69

283

11

Mexico

-3 285

-12 262

-14 642

-17 568

23 900

40 442

32 166

29 368

-20 615

-28 180

-17 524

-11 800

Nicaragua

-875

-1 284

-1 381

-1 411

1 093

1 371

1 366

1 443

-219

-87

15

-32

Panama

-2 765

-3 826

-3 267

-6 521

3 072

3 597

3 249

6 531

-307

228

18

-10

Paraguay

-654

294

44

1 197

973

490

-69

-400

-319

-784

24

-797

Peru

-3 782

-3 341

-6 842

-11 690

14 955

8 032

21 650

14 094

-11 173

-4 691

-14 808

-2 404

Uruguay

-731

-1 371

-2 690

-4 175

370

3 936

5 977

6 691

361

-2 564

-3 287

-2 516

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

8 812

24 387

11 016

6 644

-16 872

-28 419

-12 012

-15 236

8 060

4 032

996

8 592

Latin America

-58 831

-71 593

-98 433

-141 452

143 684

176 528

157 754

143 456

-84 853

-104 935

-59 322

-2 003

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a A minus sign (-) indicates an increase in reserve assets.

b Projections.

The change in financial account composition reflected the very different ways in which the components of external financing reacted to the changing circumstances and trends in international financial markets

during 2013.

Three features characterized the change in the composition of the financial account. First, inflows of net foreign direct investment (FDI) remained strong, expanding by 22.4% in 2013, as a number of transactions that had been postponed in 2012 were brought to fruition.[8] This trend continued in 2013 as growth prospects in the region remained brighter than in the rest of the world. Another factor boosting net inflows was that the measures adopted by the countries experiencing currency tensions tended to hamper the remittance of profits abroad, leading companies to reinvest them instead.

Second, still-low international interest rates —albeit with expectations of possible increases in the future— continued to favour net portfolio investment in the region, especially in private corporate, sovereign and quasi-sovereign foreign bonds. Third, contrasting with the trend in portfolio investment, net outflows of the more volatile components of external financing (under the category net other investment liabilities) increased as global yields rose on United States financial assets in response to announcements of an impending change in that country’s monetary policy (see table IV.2).

TABLE IV.2

Latin America (17 countries): components of the financial account

(Millions of dollars)

Financial account balance

Net foreign direct investment

Net portfolio investment

Net other investment liabilities

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

Argentina

3 317

295

-1 679

-4 416

6 884

9 232

11 076

9 029

11 149

-4 257

-3 200

-1 682

-14 715

-4 680

-9 555

-11 763

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

924

971

529

-99

672

859

1 060

1 287

90

186

-360

-469

162

-75

-171

-916

Brazil

98 792

110 807

72 033

77 116

36 917

67 690

68 095

61 924

63 011

35 311

8 770

32 000

-1 136

7 806

-4 832

-16 808

Chile

-5 943

17 811

9 948

14 051

5 912

2 557

9 233

9 501

-6 421

11 534

-3 410

9 309

-5 434

3 719

4 124

-4 760

Colombia

11 770

13 309

17 295

19 512

-139

5 099

15 952

13 675

973

6 090

5 690

7 317

10 937

2 119

-4 347

-1 480

Costa Rica

1 933

2 534

4 338

4 400

1 441

2 098

1 859

2 551

373

263

2 121

2 531

119

173

358

-682

Ecuador

217

344

-390

3 901

163

641

591

486

-731

41

67

-1 647

785

-337

-1 048

5 062

El Salvador

-162

660

1 892

928

117

385

516

224

-121

100

883

408

-157

174

492

296

Guatemala

1 584

2 027

2 632

2 104

782

1 009

1 167

1 316

-12

-392

724

1 430

814

1 410

740

-642

Honduras

1 464

1 118

1 451

2 288

971

1 012

1 004

1 064

-41

88

1

1 004

534

18

446

219

Mexico

43 603

50 979

48 485

45 843

7 582

11 168

-7 782

24 600

31 432

45 946

72 856

47 084

4 588

-6 135

-16 588

-25 840

Nicaragua

657

1 781

1 713

1 846

491

961

761

1 004

-91

-220

64

-26

258

1 041

888

868

Panama

3 011

4 017

3 682

8 045

2 363

2 755

3 020

4 613

-1 058

-679

-116

-192

1 706

1 941

778

3 624

Paraguay

668

-69

186

144

340

215

144

406

0

0

600

1 000

328

-284

-558

-1 262

Peru

13 606

9 161

19 779

16 803

8 189

8 119

12 297

11 979

2 615

0

0

0

2 803

1 042

7 482

4 825

Uruguay

1 057

4 196

6 420

2 817

2 349

2 505

2 774

3 160

-683

1 977

1 642

2 422

-609

-285

2 004

-2 765

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

-13 706

-24 775

-8 829

-10 395

73

4 919

756

3 152

3 176

2 007

4 002

-12

-16 955

-31 701

-13 587

-13 535

Latin America

162 792

195 166

179 483

184 887

75 105

121 225

122 523

149 969

103 661

97 996

90 332

100 476

-15 974

-24 054

-33 372

-65 558

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Projections.

As expectations shifted regarding international interest rates, in particular those in the United States, spreads widened between yields on the region’s external bond issues and on United States Treasury bonds —the proxy variable for country risk. This rather reversed the easing of global risk perception and drop in risk ratings that had followed the European Central Bank’s 2012 announcement of greater support for the sovereign debt of eurozone countries. The turnaround was felt more forcefully during the first half of the year, and mainly by the countries that are more integrated into international markets (Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico, Panama, Peru and Uruguay). Other countries, for various reasons, continued to exhibit substantially higher levels of risk throughout the period (see table IV.3).

TABLE IV.3

Latin America and the Caribbean: country risk indicators

(EMBIG, basis points)

Annual averages

2012

2013

2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Oct-Nov

Argentina

696

701

1007

854

1095

1012

1066

1232

1192

1106

873

Belize

818

1011

1968

1656

1706

2195

2317

1232

794

879

859

Brazil

209

195

184

200

213

175

149

174

208

248

239

Chile

131

140

150

157

171

148

124

139

158

171

162

Colombia

194

166

150

171

172

136

119

140

164

189

178

Dominican Republic

373

453

459

535

511

439

349

374

380

404

374

Ecuador

954

819

827

810

877

795

826

703

646

632

510

El Salvador

322

383

450

470

486

442

400

341

395

412

364

Jamaica

492

485

656

624

634

662

702

680

654

632

646

Mexico

191

188

190

208

213

178

163

176

196

211

205

Panama

181

172

165

182

188

155

133

157

176

203

198

Peru

179

194

158

191

185

138

118

138

164

190

179

Trinidad and Tobago

297

279

Uruguay

219

200

176

200

213

156

134

156

187

209

191

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

1107

1213

996

1003

1088

1019

875

760

892

998

1065

Latin America and the Caribbean (simple average)

433

451

538

519

554

547

534

457

443

452

421

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of JP Morgan.

a Simple average.

The revised perception of the future evolution of interest rates prompted moves to secure external financing. Thus, private agents, as well as sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities, sought to leverage the still-low international interest rates and stepped up fundraising via external debt issuances. Bonds were issued by private and sovereign agents in a larger number of countries, including several in the Caribbean and Central America. During the month of September external bond issues totalled US$ 22.119 billion, the second highest amount ever after October 2009 (see figure IV.9). As a result, annual bond issues rose over 2012. In the year to October 2013, bond issues stood at US$ 106.969 billion, and for the year as a whole issues are projected to exceed the US$ 114.078 billion issued in 2012 (see annex table A-14).

FIGURE IV.9

Latin America: external bond issues and country risk, 2010-2013

(Millions of dollars and basis points)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of JP Morgan and Latin Finance.

The deterioration in the external sector led to lower growth in gross national disposable income, making investment financing increasingly reliant on external savings

Variations in the terms of trade in 2013 produced smaller gains for the region overall than they had in 2011 and 2012. In addition, as net payments abroad increased and current transfers declined, gross national disposable income rose by just 2.0%, below the rate of regional GDP growth (2.6%). The slowdown in gross national disposable income in Mexico, associated with lower inbound remittances in 2012 and 2013, had a significant impact on the figures for the region overall (see figure IV.10).

FIGURE IV.10

Latin America: variation in GDP and gross national disposable income, 2002-2013a

(Percentages, based on dollars at constant 2005 prices)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The figures for 2013 are projections.

Slower growth in gross national disposable income in the region is also one of the factors leading to the sluggish expansion of consumption and its diminishing role in driving aggregate demand. The slacker growth in gross national disposable income reflected terms-of-trade variations in the case of South America, mainly higher remittances in the Central American countries, and a combination of both factors in Mexico (see figure IV.11).

With growth in gross national disposable income flagging, national savings were squeezed and external savings contributed increasingly to financing investment. In current dollars and expressed as a percentage of GDP, national savings in the region declined from 19.4% of GDP in 2012 to 18.4% in 2013, while external savings swelled from 1.8% of GDP in 2012 to 2.5% in 2013. Against this backdrop, gross capital investment stood at 21.4%, similar to the 2012 level (see figure IV.12) and significantly lower than in fast-growing countries in other regions, as noted earlier.

FIGURE IV.11

Latin America: contribution of terms-of-trade gains, income payments abroad and net current transfers to the spread in the variation between GDP and gross national disposable income, 2004-2013a

(Percentage points, based on dollars at constant 2005 prices)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The figures for 2013 are projections.

FIGURE IV.12

Latin America: investment financing, 1990-2013a

(Percentages of GDP on the basis of dollars at current prices)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The figures for 2013 are projections.

Chapter V

Policies

Countries have altered their fiscal targets in response to economic cooling, with a shift towards slightly countercyclical policies

Fiscal policy in the region turned slightly countercyclical, mostly in the form of looser fiscal targets and measures to safeguard public sector solvency. This combination was made possible by ready access to financing at historically low rates.

For Latin America, the overall deficit stood at 2.4% of GDP and the primary deficit, adjusted for interest payments, at 0.6 GDP points. This was the poorest performance since 2009 (see table V.1 and figure V.1). The Caribbean posted a smaller overall deficit than in 2012, at 3.0% of GDP.

TABLE V.1

Latin America and the Caribbean: central government fiscal indicators, fiscal balance 2013 and estimated changes in revenues and expenditure, 2012-2013 a

(Percentages of GDP)

Region/country

Changes estimated between 2012 and 2013

Breakdown of

expenditure

Breakdown of

revenues

Overall

balance

Primary

balance 2013

Overall

balance

Total spending b

Primary current spending

Interest

Capital spending

Total

revenues

Ingresos tributarios

Otros ingresos

Latin America and the Caribbean (33 countries)

-2.5

-0.1

0.1

0.7

0.3

0.1

0.3

0.8

0.5

0.3

Latin America (19 countries)

-2.4

-0.6

-0.3

0.7

0.4

0.0

0.2

0.5

0.4

0.1

The Caribbean (13 countries)

-3.0

0.5

0.2

0.8

0.2

0.1

0.4

1.0

0.2

0.7

Central America and the Dominican Republic

-2.9

-1.1

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.1

-0.2

0.4

0.5

-0.1

Exporters of hydrocarbons c

-2.9

-1.0

-1.0

2.4

1.3

0.1

1.0

1.4

0.6

0.8

Exporters of metals and minerals d

-0.5

0.3

-1.4

0.7

0.5

0.0

0.1

-0.7

-0.6

-0.1

Exporters of food e

-1.9

-0.4

0.1

0.9

0.4

-0.1

0.6

1.0

0.5

0.5

Exporters of services f

-2.8

1.1

0.3

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.7

0.0

0.7

Brazil

-2.0

2.2

-0.0

0.1

0.7

-0.5

-0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

Mexico g

-2.4

-0.4

0.2

-1.2

-0.9

0.2

-0.4

-1.0

1.1

-2.0

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures and budgets and estimates.

a Simple averages. The data for 2013 are estimates.

b The variation in total spending includes changes in net lending.

c Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Plurinational State of Bolivia, and Trinidad and Tobago.

d Chile and Peru.

e Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.

f Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Jamaica, Panama, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Saint Lucia.

g Public sector.

FIGURE V.1

Latin America (19 countries): central government fiscal indicators, 2000-2013 a

(Percentages of GDP)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures and budgets and estimates.

a Simple averages. The data for 2013 are estimates.

With the international economy still vulnerable but on the road to recovery, Latin America has made a number of adjustments to ease negative impacts on the region. Most countries have eased their fiscal targets to gain room for manoeuvre without upsetting public debt sustainability. In 2013, the entry into effect of fiscal (especially tax) reforms that had been passed in 2012 boosted income in several of the region’s countries, notwithstanding the economic slowdown.

As figure V.2 shows, Chile, Peru and the Plurinational State of Bolivia maintained low levels of debt compared with the regional average, running fiscal surpluses or small deficits. The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras and Panama posted larger fiscal deficits than the regional average, yet still with moderate levels of debt. The rest of the economies showed deficits of less than 2% of GDP. Fiscal consolidation continued in the Caribbean, whose deficit came down by 0.2% of GDP on average in 2013, thanks to spending cuts in some countries and to new tax measures.

On average, Latin America’s debt levels continued to fall, with public debt at around 31% of GDP overall in 2013. Countries with debt below this level were Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Haiti, Paraguay, Peru and the Plurinational State of Bolivia. Close to the average were the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Colombia and Nicaragua, while Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Panama and Uruguay ran debt levels above the regional average. The picture was rather more uneven in the Caribbean countries, where average debt exceeded 76% of GDP in 2013, with rates of over 100% in Jamaica and Saint Kitts and Nevis. Serious fiscal disequilibria have led several of these countries to negotiate restructuring agreements with IMF or to announce broad fiscal reforms, as set out in table V.2.

FIGURE V.2

Latin America and the Caribbean: central government overall fiscal balance and public debt, 2013

(Percentages of GDP)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures and budgets and estimates.

a In the case of Mexico, the data refer to the public sector.

TABLE V.2

Latin America and the Caribbean: public finance measures and reforms, 2013

Country

Reform

Argentina

-A new payment plan was established to correct tax, customs and social-security debts.

-A voluntary scheme for the externalization of foreign currency was established which enables holdings of foreign currency in the country or abroad not registered with the tax authorities to enter the banking system (within a time limit of six months). No taxes, fines or penalties are payable on these funds if certain conditions are met.

-The income tax was amended, with changes including a rise in the non-taxable minimum bracket, an increase in general deductions, a 15% tax rate levied on transactions of unlisted equities and securities, the repeal of the exemption from capital gains tax for non-residents and a 10% tax levied on dividend distributions. A 20% increase was made in the rate of income tax payable in advance on credit or debit card purchases made abroad. The first half of the annual bonus paid to workers earning less than 25 000 pesos per month was made deductible.

-The scales in the Monotributo simplified regime for small taxpayers were increased and modifications were made to the amounts of fixed contributions to the national health insurance system and the national welfare system.

-The maximum taxable amount for calculating social security contributions was increased (Resolutions 30/2013 and 266/2013).

-Import duties on certain consumer goods were increased.

-The effective rate of export duties on oil and natural gas was reduced.

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

-Salaries of civil servants were increased by 6% and the pay scale for the highest State authorities was set.

-The “Oscar Alfaro” Act on Books and Reading was passed, making the importation and sale of books exempt from VAT.

-The foreign currency sales tax was amended to impose a levy of 0.70% on all foreign exchange transactions. The tax base was also modified to include 100% of each foreign-currency transaction made by money-changing institutions.

-Import duties were temporarily waived on diesel (for one year), tomato products (until 31 December 2013) and wheat and meslin products (for 180 days).

Chile

-The Chamber of Deputies passed a bill to make electronic invoicing more widespread, aimed at improving tax compliance, and reduced stamp duty with a view to benefiting SMEs.

-The Fiscal Advisory Council was established to verify structural balance calculations. It has also checked, for the purposes of drawing up the 2014 budget, cyclically adjusted revenue estimates used to set maximum levels of expenditure that fit within fiscal targets.

-A US$ 4-billion education fund was also set up with a view to complementing resources allocated to the Ministry of Education under the law on the budget.

Colombia

-Companies complying with certain conditions will be exempted as of May 2014 from paying parafiscal contributions to the National Apprenticeship Service (SENA) and the Colombian Family Welfare Institute (ICBF).

-The exemption from import duties for industrial products was extended until 2015.

Costa Rica

-A levy of US$ 25 was established for all customs declarations covering overland exports of goods out of the country.

Dominican Republic

-Purchases of low-cost housing were exempted from the industrialized goods and services transfer tax (ITBIS) for six months.

-The tax on annual productive financial assets that had been passed in 2011 was repealed, as per an agreement signed in February by the Ministry of Finance, the Directorate General of Internal Revenue and financial institutions that also required financial institutions to make an additional one-off advance income tax payment of a combined DR$ 2.5 billion.

Ecuador

-The Organic Law of Incentives for the Production Sector was passed, with a view to lending support to exporters hit by rising tariffs in export markets or the imposition of unilateral sanctions on Ecuadorian goods.

-The Organic Law on the National Public Procurement System was amended to bring greater transparency to tendering processes and give priority to Ecuadorian products and services.

-Changes were made to the tax regime for the mining sector by redefining what constitutes artisanal and small-, medium- and large -scale mining and changing arrangements for allocating royalty income.

El Salvador

-Caps were imposed on wage increases and the number of new jobs created in the public sector.

-The Law on International Services, which grants fiscal incentives, was reformed to include new activities and widen definitions of other activities with a view to promoting investment in the country.

-Exemptions from the tax on transfers of property and the provision of services were extended to cover owners of buses, minibuses and hire vehicles to encourage the use of public transport.

Guatemala

-The Law on Institution-building for Transparency and Quality in Public Expenditure was passed, with a view to bringing greater transparency to the management of the budget and public funds. The Organic Law on the Budget was amended, notably to make those managing or implementing public funds accountable for their actions and to impose sanctions on those approving floating debt. Changes were also made to the Organic Law on Supervision of Tax Administration that set annual targets, established the annual tax collection, monitoring and supervision plan, and stipulated that board members may no longer serve for life.

-The vehicle circulation tax was reduced by 50% and an amnesty on overdue taxes was declared.

Honduras

-All customs-duty exemptions and exonerations granted by the Secretary of State for Finance were suspended for 60 calendar days. A special committee was established to investigate customs-duty exemptions and exonerations.

-An amnesty was declared on interest payments, fines, fees or surcharges incurred as a result of administrative or judicial backlogs accumulated up to 31 December 2012.

Jamaica

-The Jamaican Government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) signed a four-year Extended Fund Facility arrangement, a package including a loan of US$ 958 million, in addition to the US$ 1.02 billion pledged by the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank (US$ 510 million each). The arrangement was agreed after the government met a number of conditions set by IMF, including carrying out a national debt exchange (NDX), fiscal measures and a civil service wage freeze.

Mexico

-The federal fiscal code was reformed with a view to simplifying the payment of taxes and to bringing new taxpayers into the system.

-The Fiscal Coordination Act was amended to bring greater transparency in the use of State and municipal funds.

-A reform of the customs law was approved with a view to facilitating international trade.

-The General Government Accounting Act was amended to enable the National Treasury to pay teaching staff directly via the Secretariat of Public Education from 2015.

-The Federal Act relating to the Budget and Fiscal Liability was reformed, the main changes including the repeal of the flat-rate business tax (IETU), a more progressive income tax, with its highest rate increased from 30% to 35%, a 10% tax on stock-market capital gains and a new 5% levy on the sale and import of high-calorie non-staple foods. It also introduces austerity measures for the three branches of government and autonomous bodies and caps increases in structural federal government spending at 2% for 2015 and 2016, although there is an exception clause that enables additional funding to be granted provided that adequate justification is forthcoming.

Panama

-The National Public Revenue Authority (ANIP) was established, with its remit including matters of authentication, tax collection, investigation, settlement, billing, refunds and oversight. The national treasury system was also set up and the single national treasury account was opened.

-Taxpayers were given the opportunity to regularize taxes falling under the remit of ANIP up until financial year 2011.

-Import tariffs were modified to safeguard the domestic ethyl alcohol sector.

Paraguay

-Law No 5098 on Fiscal Accountability was passed, which provides for general fiscal rules with a view to ensuring the stability and sustainability of public finances.

Peru

-The Accountability and Fiscal Transparency Act (No 2666/2013-PE) was passed, which aims to strengthen the current macro fiscal framework by ensuring greater predictability and stability in public spending and isolating spending from the most volatile source of State revenue.

Uruguay

-The rural real estate concentration tax (ICIR) was repealed (after being declared unconstitutional) and the estate tax was amended to include producers with assets in the agricultural sector.

-An extension until 31 July 2014 was granted for benefits for non-resident tourists, which include an exemption from VAT on tourism services paid for with credit or debit cards issued abroad.

-Exemptions from individual income tax (IRPF) and non-resident income tax (IRNR) for transactions involving bearer shares were repealed; they are now taxable in the same manner as those involving registered shares.

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

-Income tax exemptions granted to promote investment in primary production (including farming, forestry, livestock, poultry, fisheries and aquaculture) and mining projects, in collaboration with the Government of China.

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information.

Spending continued to rise in most of the countries of the region

In Latin America spending rose by almost one percentage point of GDP on average, from 21.6% to 22.4% of GDP in 2013 (see figure V.3). The largest rises occurred in Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, Peru and the Plurinational State of Bolivia. In the Caribbean, spending rose by over 3% of GDP in Antigua and Barbuda, Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago, financed by revenues from raw materials exports and grants.

Capital spending trended up throughout the region in 2013, from 5.0% to 5.2% of GDP on average. With investment rising across in the board, especially in infrastructure, domestic demand once again became a growth driver in the region as external demand cooled. Capital spending topped 10% of GDP in 2013 in Ecuador, Panama and Plurinational State of Bolivia within Latin America, and over 12% of GDP in Dominica and Guyana, in the Caribbean (see figure V.4). Conversely, investment levels fell in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Brazil and Mexico. Investment in the Caribbean continued to climb in 2013, but much more slowly than in preceding years.

FIGURE V.3

Latin America and the Caribbean: central government spending, 2012-2013

(Percentages of GDP)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures and budgets and estimates.

FIGURE V.4

Latin America and the Caribbean: central government capital expenditure, 2012-2013

(Percentages of GDP)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures and budgets and estimates.

a In the case of Mexico, the data refer to the public sector.

Fiscal revenues in the region benefited from recent tax reforms and rising income from hydrocarbons

Overall, fiscal revenues in the region rose by 0.8% of GDP in 2013. In Latin America, the rise was 0.5% of GDP, driven by the performance of the hydrocarbon-exporting economies, some Central American countries (Guatemala and Nicaragua) and the Dominican Republic (see table V.I and figure V.5). Tax income edged up (0.2% of GDP) in the Caribbean, as well, but here the 1 GDP point rise in fiscal revenues was due mainly to a hefty rise in grants.

FIGURE V.5

Latin America and the Caribbean: total fiscal income and tax income of the central government, by subregion and country grouping, 2012-2013 a

(Percentages of GDP)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures and budgets and estimates.

a The data for 2013 are estimates. The country groupings are as follows: hydrocarbon exporters: Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Plurinational State of Bolivia, and Trinidad and Tobago; exporters of minerals and metals: Chile and Peru; food exporters: Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay; services exporters: Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Jamaica, Panama, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Saint Lucia.

Generally speaking, in the Latin American countries where income rose (14 of 19), it did so modestly. According to estimates, the increase exceeded 1 GDP point in Argentina, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, the Plurinational State of Bolivia and Uruguay. In the case of Argentina, this was thanks to both higher tax receipts (with a larger take from VAT, profit tax, tax on bank loans and on account debits, and import duties) and a rise in inflows from non-tax sources, including property income in the form of profit transfers from the central bank and income from the country’s sustainability guaranty fund.

Increased receipts in the Dominican Republic were due chiefly to the tax reform of 2012. In Guatemala the higher income reflected the country’s larger take of direct taxes following the tax reforms of 2009 and 2012. In the Plurinational State of Bolivia, tax revenues were boosted by robust economic growth and new measures introduced in 2012 and 2013 to increase the financial sector’s share in the tax burden (see table V.2). Income from hydrocarbons also rose, with natural gas production reaching historic highs. In Uruguay domestic demand continued to be a crucial driver of fiscal income with a powerful impact on both tax and non-tax income.

Mexico saw a drop in income of 1.0% of GDP in 2013 (see table V.1), owing chiefly to a fall in non-tax income from non-renewable natural resources (duties on hydrocarbons). Tax income climbed strongly, however, thanks to higher receipts from income tax —buoyed by the sale of Grupo Modelo— and a smaller deficit on the special excise tax on production and services (IEPS) applied to fuels. The tax reform passed in the final quarter of 2013 should boost tax receipts in 2014.

Countries specializing in the export of primary products showed different trends, partly owing to production patterns and product prices. Fiscal income for 2013 was up by around 1.4% of GDP for the hydrocarbon exporters, largely reflecting increased production in Colombia and the Plurinational State of Bolivia. In Colombia, greater production of hydrocarbons and relatively high prices boosted fiscal revenues from non-renewable natural resources. Tax receipts also benefited from the fiscal reform of 2012, which took effect in 2013.

Estimates based on monthly data suggest that fiscal income rose in Ecuador on the back of rapid growth in non-petroleum revenues. Conversely, income was down in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, as declining revenues from the oil sector were not fully made up by income from other sources.

For the exporters of minerals and metals, the combination of lower prices and higher production costs eroded fiscal income by 0.7% of GDP. In Chile and Peru, income from taxes on mining sector profits tumbled over the year and were chiefly responsible for a drop in tax income of 0.6% of GDP. Both countries have made new changes to their fiscal rules for offsetting the impact of large swings in income (see table V.2).

Monetary policy has been directed towards sustaining domestic demand and offsetting international financial volatility

In the economies of the region that run inflation-targeting schemes, inflationary pressures have tended to remain within the targets set by the authorities in 2013 and most of the central banks (five of seven) therefore lowered their policy rates in the course of the year. By contrast, policy rates in Brazil rose over the year as the central bank sought to keep inflation around the centre of the target band. Given these economies’ close integration with international financial markets, policy rates have also responded to the possible tapering off and, ultimately, suspension of the United States Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme.

FIGURE V.6

Monetary policy rates in countries with inflation-targeting schemes, 2012-2013

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

In the economies which use monetary aggregates as the main monetary policy instrument, growth in the money supply has tended to slow, especially in the Central American and the dollarized economies. However, in the group of non-inflation-targeting South American economies —Argentina, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Paraguay, the Plurinational State of Bolivia and Uruguay[9]— monetary aggregates expanded considerably, with annualized rates of variation running at over 30%, in the case of M1. This average for South America is heavily biased by growth of monetary aggregates in Argentina and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, however. If these two countries are left out of the estimate, the average rate for the group is 15%, a figure much like that of 2012.

The policy measures mentioned above occurred in a context of slowing growth in domestic credit to the private sector throughout the region. This has occurred across all sectors of lending, but most notably in the commercial loans segment.

FIGURE V.7

Latin America and the Caribbean: annualized growth in the monetary aggregate M1, 2011-2013

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Costa Rica, Haiti, Honduras and Nicaragua.

b Argentina, Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Paraguay, Plurinational State of Bolivia and Uruguay.

c Ecuador, El Salvador and Panama.

In the non-inflation-targeting South American countries, credit growth picked up starting in the second quarter, especially in Argentina and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. At the same time, lending rates tended to ease down in most of the region’s economies, rising only in Argentina, Brazil, Honduras, Suriname and Uruguay.

FIGURE V.8

Latin America and the Caribbean: annualized growth in domestic lending to the private sector, October 2010-September 2013

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Costa Rica, Haiti, Honduras and Nicaragua.

b Argentina, Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Paraguay, Plurinational State of Bolivia and Uruguay.

c Ecuador, El Salvador and Panama.

d Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Mexico and Peru.

Stock market activity fluctuated and trended downwards throughout the region, to gauge by the movements on Latin America’s main stock markets. Stock market indices not only fell overall, but showed greater implicit volatility over 2012. Although the markets showed cumulative losses between December 2012 and October 2013, prices bottomed out following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of possible monetary stimulus tapering, then picked up as expectations brightened after the September announcement that the withdrawal would take place gradually, at a later date (see figure V.9).

FIGURE V.9

Stock market variation, January 2007-September 2013

(Index: January 2006=1.00)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The indices correspond to the following countries: IBOV: Brazil; MEXBOL: Mexico; IGBC: Colombia; IPSA: Chile; IGBVL: Peru. Left scale applies to Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and Chile and the right to Peru.

Differences in monetary policy reflected in different inflation trajectories

In the second half of 2013 the median rate of inflation in the Latin American and Caribbean countries was slightly up on the preceding months, so average inflation trended upwards throughout the year. In the 12 months to October 2013 the simple average inflation rate for the countries of the region was 7.2%, compared with a cumulative 5.5% in the 12 months to December 2012. The uptick in inflation was attributable to higher food price inflation in some countries owing mainly to specific impacts on local food supplies (see table V.3). By subregion the largest jump in inflation was in South America (see figure V.10). Notwithstanding the average figures, there were major differences between countries and considerable dispersion among inflation rates in the region.

The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and Argentina posted the region’s highest inflation rates, followed by Jamaica, the Plurinational State of Bolivia and Uruguay. In Argentina, the average rate of inflation reported by the provincial statistical institutions which conduct the monthly survey of this indicator and have information up to October 2013 (San Luis and Tierra de Fuego) registered a 12-month rise of 25% that month.

At October 2013, inflation was running at less than 1% in El Salvador, Bahamas and some of the economies of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), and at under 2% in Chile, Colombia, Barbados and Belize. By contrast, in Brazil, Nicaragua, the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Haiti inflation was between 5% and 10%. The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela posted the region’s highest rate (51.2%[10]), followed by Argentina and Jamaica. The other economies recorded rates of between 2% and 5%.

The surge in inflation in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, despite the existence of price controls for a large group of products, reflected the impact on domestic prices of the national currency devaluation of March 2013 and the increasing shortage of consumer goods. Other countries also took measures to slow price rises for some products in 2013. In February Ecuador set price controls for 46 food products, including beef, dairy products, eggs, fruit and vegetables. In April, Argentina decreed a six-month freeze on gasoline and diesel prices at service stations and the voluntary price controls agreed between the government and local producers and distributors were maintained.

TABLE V.3

Latin America and the Caribbean: 12-month variation in the consumer price index and food price index, December 2012-October 2013

(Percentages, simple average)

Cumulative 12-month inflation to December 2012

Cumulative 12-month inflation to October 2013

Overall CPI

CPI, food and beverages

Overall CPI

CPI, food and beverages

South America

6.3

7.8

9.7

12.6

Argentina

10.8

9.9

10.5 a

7.1

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

4.5

5.0

7.5

11.8

Brazil

5.8

9.9

5.8

8.9

Chile

1.5

5.5

1.5

4.0

Colombia

2.4

2.5

1.8

0.7

Ecuador

4.2

5.5

2.0

0.5

Paraguay

4.0

1.3

4.4

8.4

Peru

2.6

4.1

3.0

3.3

Uruguay

7.5

10.0

8.7

9.1

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

19.5

24.0

51.7

72.3

Central America and Mexico

4.5

5.1

4.0

5.0

Costa Rica

4.5

3.1

4.1

4.1

El Salvador

0.8

1.1

0.5

2.4

Guatemala

3.4

6.0

4.2

7.7

Haiti

7.8

8.8

4.5

4.7b

Honduras

5.4

3.8

4.6

4.5

Mexico

3.6

7.2

3.4

2.7

Nicaragua

7.1

9.2

6.5

8.2

Panama

4.6

0.2

3.9

6.0

Dominican Republic

3.9

6.8

4.7

4.9

The Caribbean

2.9

5.4

2.2

3.3

Antigua and Barbuda

1.8

2.6

0.8

1.9c

Bahamas

0.7

…

-0.4

0.1

Barbados

2.4

5.4

2.7

3.7d

Belize

0.8

1.7

1.6

2.8e

Dominica

2.0

3.0

0.5

1.3c

Grenada

1.8

1.3

0.7

1.4c

Guyana

…

…

…

…

Jamaica

8.0

14.3

10.3

9.9

Saint Kitts and Nevis

0.2

0.0

0.6

2.8c

Saint Lucia

5.0

10.4

2.6

8.6c

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

1.0

1.1

0.9

1.8c

Suriname

4.4

6.4

2.5

2.0f

Trinidad and Tobago

7.1

12.7

3.0

3.0b

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The average rate of inflation reported by the provinces which conduct a monthly survey of this indicator and have information up to October 2013 (San Luis and Tierra de Fuego) registered a 12-month rise of 25% that month.

b Data to September 2013, compared to September 2012.

c Data to June 2013, compared to June 2012.

d Data to July 2013, compared to July 2012.

e Data to May 2013, compared to May 2012.

f Data to August 2013, compared to August 2012.

FIGURE V.10

Latin America and the Caribbean: 12-month inflation, simple average January 2007 to October 2013

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

Core inflation tracked general inflation fairly closely throughout 2013 (see figure V.11). As a simple average, the region’s core inflation stood at 6.3% in the 12 months to October, driven by a larger rise in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Argentina and Uruguay.

Higher inflation presented the economic authorities with additional monetary policy challenges, in view of the international conditions and the cooler growth in relation to previous years. In Brazil, for example, the inflation rate came very close to the upper limit of the target band (6.5%) and even breached it slightly in the first half of 2013, which led the monetary authorities to embark upon a steady series of interest rate hikes, in a context of slack economic growth. However, although the 12-month rate for overall inflation had eased to 5.8% by October (compared with 6.7% in the 12 months to June), core inflation has continued to rise and exceeded the overall rate in October.

FIGURE V.11

Latin America: variation in consumer price index, the food price index and core inflation, January 2007 to October 2013

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

Exchange-rate volatility sharpened

At the start of May 2013, an upturn in several economic indicators in the United States and the corresponding announcement by the Federal Reserve led the markets to believe that the entity would soon rein in its asset purchases, which would slow international liquidity growth. At the same time, mounting signs of a slowdown in China’s economy reduced the prospects for an upturn in commodity prices. These two factors led to nominal exchange rates falling between May and August in the countries that are most integrated into the international capital markets, including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay.

In all those countries, except Colombia, the local currency depreciated by over 5% between May and November 2013, notwithstanding some exchange-rate volatility during the period caused by shifting expectations and slowing economies in some cases, and a more uncertain growth outlook in others, and the consequent interest rate cuts or changes in liquidity and credit conditions. The Brazilian real depreciated by 12.5% and the Uruguayan peso by 11% in this period.

In other countries the exchange rate reflected chiefly domestic factors in 2013. In Argentina, the nominal exchange rate fell throughout the year, with larger monthly depreciations in the peso from April onwards, amid high inflation and rapid growth of monetary aggregates, and a large gap between the official and parallel exchange rates throughout the period. In the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, the exchange rate for currency provided by the Foreign Exchange Administration Commission (CADIVI) fell by 46.5% in February 2013. Nevertheless, owing among other things to the rapid acceleration of inflation (to an annual rate of 54.3% in October), the gap with respect to the parallel rate widened significantly.

FIGURE V.12

Mexico, Peru and Uruguay: nominal exchange rate against the United States dollar, 2011-2013

(Index: January 2008=100)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

FIGURE V.13

Brazil, Chile and Colombia: nominal exchange rate against the United States dollar, January 2011-November 2013

(Index: January 2008=100)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

The extraregional real effective exchange rate for Latin America and the Caribbean fell by 0.5% between November 2012 and November 2013. In South America, the fall was 1.3% on average. The Central American countries and the Dominican Republic posted virtually no change in this indicator (up 0.1%), nor did the Caribbean overall (down 0.2%).

Between November 2012 and November 2013, 10 countries saw their currencies depreciate against those of their trading partners, in five cases by over 5%: Chile (8%), Brazil (6.1%), Colombia (5.5%), Peru (5.3%) and Jamaica (5.1%). Despite a positive inflation rate and currency depreciation in major trading partners, including Brazil and Chile, the Plurinational State of Bolivia posted an effective currency appreciation of 4.4% during the period, because the country uses a de facto fixed nominal exchange rate as an anchor against inflation. In the case of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, high inflation in 2013 offset the nominal depreciation of the bolívar in February 2013 and led to the real effective exchange rate remaining overvalued: in November 2013 this rate was over 45% under the average level for 1990-2009.

The build-up of international reserves came to a halt

After a decade of double-digit growth, the region’s overall level of international reserves remained virtually unchanged in 2013, decreasing slightly from 14.8 % of GDP in 2012 to 14.7% in 2013. This is attributable mainly to steady current account deterioration and to the use of reserves to offset exchange-rate volatility —especially heavy depreciations— after the United States Federal Reserve announced the possible withdrawal of monetary stimulus programmes in May.

The rate of reserve accumulation diverged within the region in 2013. Between November 2012 and December 2013 international reserves climbed strongly in Belize (36%), Colombia (16%), Paraguay (16%) and Uruguay (18%), while the positive rates in Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and the Plurinational State of Bolivia were slowing in the second half of the year. Conversely, reserves declined by over 20% in 2013 in Argentina and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. They were down, too, in several Caribbean countries, including the Bahamas, Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica and Suriname, where foreign exchange outflows exceeded inflows from tourism and FDI.

FIGURE V.14

Gross international reserves as a proportion of GDP a

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The figures shown in the graph are the most recent available at the close of this publication (see statistical annex).

In the early months of 2013, the central banks of Colombia and Peru stepped up dollar purchases in the currency markets and built up reserves. By contrast, as of May, the central banks of Brazil and Peru sold dollars on the currency markets to ease the volatility resulting from rapid local currency depreciation after the announcement by the Federal Reserve that asset purchases could be gradually discontinued.

A range of macroprudential policies were adopted in the region

In response to the volatility of exchange rates and other asset prices in 2013, especially after the hike in long-term interest rates in the United States in May, a series of macroprudential measures were implemented to strengthen financial systems and reduce economic exposure to the vicissitudes of the international markets.

TABLE V.4

Latin America and the Caribbean: monetary, exchange-rate and macroprudential measures adopted in 2013

Country

Reform

Argentina

A number of foreign-exchange measures were introduced, including: taxes (deductible from the corporate income tax) first on credit card operations abroad and later on purchases of tourism services and travel; restrictions on the use of credit cards to withdraw foreign currency; restrictions on sales of foreign currency for imports.

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

New rules were adopted to enable the government to set commercial bank rates and allocations of mandatory loans to specific economic sectors or activities, such as hydrocarbons and construction.

Brazil

The authorities repealed the tax on foreign currency derivatives and on bond purchases, and discontinued the reserve requirement on local bank short dollar positions.

The Central Bank of Brazil introduced a scheme of daily currency swap auctions as a means of controlling the dollar exchange rate.

Mexico

A new anti-money-laundering act was promulgated to enhance surveillance of goods purchases, cash operations, and financial activities and transactions. Another piece of legislation introduced new tools to monitor the risk exposure of the insurance industry, in order to increase transparency and improve risk management.

Peru

The Central Bank of Peru raised its reserve requirement on inflows of foreign exchange several times up to April 2013; starting in May, it proceeded to reduce the reserve requirement on several occasions, especially for operations in soles.

The Central Bank also raised the limit on the amount of investments that private pension funds could hold abroad.

Suriname

The Central Bank of Suriname raised the reserve requirement on deposits in foreign currency.

Uruguay

The reserve requirement on purchases of central bank paper by non-residents was raised from 40% to 50%. This requirement was also applied to securities issued by the Ministry of the Economy of Uruguay, in pesos or indexed units of account.

The government raised the cash reserve requirement on national and foreign currency deposits from 20% to 25%, and from 40% to 45%, respectively.

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

The Transaction System for Foreign Currency Denominated Securities (SITME), a bond-swap platform, was replaced by the Complementary System for Foreign Currency Administration (SICAD), a foreign currency auction system.

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information from the central banks and ministries of finance of the respective countries.

Chapter VI

Outlook

Recent developments in the United States, Japanese and European economies, combined with a performance from the Chinese economy than was slightly better than expected, support a moderately optimistic outlook for global growth in 2014. Forecasts place the global economy’s growth rate at 2.9%, with growth picking up in both developed and developing countries. GDP growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to rally somewhat and the region could post a rate of around 3.2%, on the assumption of improving external conditions driving export growth. An upturn in the regional growth rate will depend, in part, on continued recovery in Mexico and better growth performance in Brazil, both of whose growth rates lagged the regional average in 2013.

FIGURE VI.1

Latin America and the Caribbean: GDP growth projections, 2014

(Percentages, based on constant 2005 dollars)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

Rising private consumption will continue to contribute to regional growth in 2014, although less vigorously than in previous years, especially compared with 2003-2008. Disposable income will grow at below-GDP rates owing to scant gains in the terms of trade (in South America) or in remittances (in Central America and the Caribbean). Other factors in the loss of momentum in private consumption are the slowdown in lending already apparent in the region in 2013, and lacklustre expansion of the wage bill amid slowing employment growth. Higher growth rates will be largely dependent on opportunities for boosting exports and investment in the region.

The boom in commodity prices that began in 2003 has levelled off since 2011 and few significant changes are forecast in Latin American and Caribbean commodity prices in the coming year, given that the horizon for 2014 includes a sluggish recovery in Europe, a partial upturn in the United States, and similar growth rates in China as in 2013. The partial recovery of the world economy could create some space for boosting regional export volumes, exports of services (particularly tourism) and remittances receipts, but expanding domestic demand in the region, associated with buoyant consumption and prospects for rising investment, could mean that goods and services imports expand faster than exports. The risk here is that the region’s balance-of-payments current account will continue to deteriorate, as has been the case since 2010.

While Latin America and the Caribbean will continue to grow faster than the developed economies, net foreign direct investment flows are projected to hold steady or tail off slightly, amid expectations of slacking global demand for commodities. In addition, if, as expected, the United States Federal Reserve cuts back on its asset purchases in 2014, the resulting contraction in international liquidity could lead to smaller inflows of portfolio investment and new external financial outflows, in particular more volatile components such as short-term deposits. Potentially more costly external resources and volatile regional exchange rates in a more uncertain climate could dissuade some agents, especially in the private sector, from drawing aggressively on the international financial market. In short, net inflows of external financial resources will likely be smaller in 2014 in the region as a whole. The risks and constraints accompanying this scenario could affect countries to varying degrees, since economies with significant reserves, low external debt and broad access to international capital markets will fare better than those without those advantages.

Employment may be expected to contribute rather more to domestic demand expansion than in 2013, but the vibrant job creation seen in the years after 2003 will not recur. Between 1991 and 2002, regional economic growth averaging 4% raised the employment rate by only 0.1 percentage points a year, while between 2003 and 2012 a similar economic growth rate pushed the employment rate up by nearly 0.5 percentage points. This was probably the result of a pattern of growth whereby expansion of labour-intensive production of non-tradable goods and services —in such areas as commerce, construction, and community, social and personal services— was increasingly driven by buoyant household consumption. As this pattern of growth weakens, growth may become less labour-intensive. The fact that in 2013 the employment-output elasticity moved away from the trends prevailing over the past 10-15 years and job creation weakened, suggests that a tipping point may have been reached in 2013 and consumption will not expand in the same way as in the recent past.

Alongside the possibility of flagging demand for labour, the labour supply as reflected in the working-age population is slowing, owing to population ageing in most countries in the region. While buoyant labour demand could still help bring unemployment rates down even further, low numbers of unemployed tend to slow the growth of the labour supply. Nevertheless, the long-term trend of a gradual increase in labour participation may pick up again in 2014. If this happens, demand-driven job creation (wage employment) could improve employment quality by replacing low-productivity jobs with higher productivity ones.

It therefore seems reasonable to assume that job creation will not regain the labour intensity seen between 2003 and 2012, but equally growth will be more labour-intensive than during the earlier period. A moderate increase in the employment rate of around 0.1-0.2 percentage points may be expected to accompany economic growth of 3.2%.

Real wages should continue to rise in most countries in 2014. Factors contributing to this include nominal increases on the back of relatively low unemployment levels, as well as low inflation in many countries. Nevertheless, limited labour demand will likely restrain wage increases in real terms. Still, assuming slightly more dynamic job creation than in 2013, in 2014 the regional wage bill should also climb somewhat more than the year before, supporting a modest rise in private consumption in the region, perhaps at a higher rate than in 2013, but without regaining the momentum of previous years.

Fiscal policy in the region as a whole is unlikely to boost consumption significantly. Non-procyclical fiscal policies have been adopted to combat the recent slowdown in growth and the deteriorating terms of trade, both of which have eroded public sector revenue. Highly favourable borrowing conditions, with abundant access to external and domestic financing and historically low interest rates, have allowed many countries to run countercyclical fiscal deficits without jeopardizing their long-term fiscal sustainability. There are of course notable exceptions, including several countries in the Caribbean that have limited borrowing room and have endured difficult fiscal adjustment processes, and some Central American and South American countries that have serious fiscal imbalances.

The international liquidity squeeze expected in 2014 will likely tighten borrowing conditions and curb public spending growth, probably also prompting the authorities to look at new measures for enhancing tax collection. In other words, depending on economic performance, 2014 could mark the beginning of a slightly more difficult period of fiscal adjustment, against a backdrop of slower growth in comparison with the period 2003-2008.

Tax reforms are also possible, given that elections will be held in several countries and the new governments will take office amid mounting demands from citizens and shrinking tax bases. In any case, the impact of deeper income tax reforms will be seen over the longer term, with tax packages to be approved during the coming year.

Monetary and macroprudential policy in the region is expected to be loosened during the first few months of 2014, in order to stimulate economic growth in light of low inflation rates in most countries. This indicates that, given the slowdown in lending observed in 2013, measures will continue to be adopted in 2014 to expand credit volume and reduce its cost, by lowering reserve requirements in some cases and cutting interest rates in others. Possible exceptions include Argentina and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, which face significant macroeconomic challenges, and Brazil, whose cycle of interest rate hikes is aimed at bringing inflation within the target range set by the central bank.

On the external front, the United States Federal Reserve may postpone tapering of its bond purchases until the second quarter of 2014, since the country’s unemployment rates remain high and the pending debate on the public debt ceiling will not be held until February 2014. Few changes are thus expected in monetary policy in the region until late in the first quarter of 2014. However, the central banks may continue to intervene periodically to curb excessive volatility of nominal exchange rates against the United States dollar.

This external scenario for 2014, with some improvements in real activity levels and shifts in the global financial climate, presents the region with opportunities that, if exploited, could work in favour of growth with equality. In the wake of the financial crisis, several countries were able to maintain their pace of growth (or avoid declines) on the back of domestic demand (consumption and investment). The current slowdown, however, seems to indicate that it is increasingly difficult for consumption and investment to continue to drive growth in the countries of the region.

The currency depreciation seen in several countries in the region in recent months, possibly strengthened by a shift in financial flows towards developed countries, could, if sustained, increase incentives for investment in tradable sectors other than the region’s traditional exports (commodities), while redirecting expenditure to ease pressure on the current account. Complementary growth-supporting industrial, trade, environmental, social and labour policies that take into account the needs of small and medium-sized enterprises, could help to lessen the region’s structural heterogeneity. The pathway of growth combined with greater equality would thus gain economic and social sustainability, with greater reliance on investment and exports than in the recent past. As discussed in other ECLAC documents, this combination would be aided by social covenants for investment.

Uncertainties that have plagued the external environment in recent years remain current: these include the possibility of a re-ignition of the disagreements over how to handle the public debt ceiling in the United States, and the fiscal contraction that ultimate failure to agree would bring; the need for new support schemes for eurozone countries that have yet to resolve public finance difficulties, as public fatigue sets in and resistance to adjustments builds; and geopolitical tensions that could affect oil markets. In addition, announcements by the United States regarding the tapering of quantitative easing and the impacts of this represent just the first step in a process of global liquidity and monetary policy adjustment in developed countries in the wake of the global financial crisis. Many changes that are still to come also augur uncertainty and volatility. One of these is restoring central bank balance sheets in developed economies: regaining balance sheet sustainability after heavy expansion in response to the crisis will take time and will require significant adjustments in public and private finances.

1 These two economies together account for about 63% of the total GDP of Latin America and the Caribbean.

2 United Nations, “World Economic Situation and Prospects. Monthly Briefing”, New York, October 2013.

3 These two economies account for about 63% of the total GDP of Latin America and the Caribbean.

4 Data on the labour situation in Brazil are taken from the monthly employment survey conducted in six metropolitan areas, where the employment rate went up by 2.2% on average for 2012. The national household survey indicated a slightly smaller rise of 1.6% in employment. This does not mean, however, that the performance of the metropolitan areas was completely atypical in showing a much larger expansion in employment than the rest of the country. On the contrary, the expansion in wage employment was even greater at the national level (2.9%) than in the metropolitan areas (2.6%).

5 However, it is worth recalling that since the balance of payments is calculated on an accrual basis and not on a withdrawal basis, a significant portion of these profit remittances are reinvested and enter as investment via the financial account.

6 See BBVA Resarch, “Situación migración México”, July 2013 [online] http://www.bbvaresearch.com/KETD/fbin/mult/1307_SitMigracionMexico_Jul13_tcm346-394011.pdf?ts=592013 [date of reference: 5 September 2013].

7 See Jeffrey Passel, D’Vera Cohn and Ana Gonzalez-Barrera, “Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero—and Perhaps Less”, Pew Hispanic Center, 2012 [online] http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/04/23/net-migration-from-mexico-falls-to-zero-and-perhaps-less/ [date of reference: 5 September 2013].

8 In Mexico, part of the Modelo brewery was sold for almost US$ 20 billion, of which US$ 13.25 billion was disbursed during the first half of 2013.

9 The Central Bank of Uruguay abandoned the policy rate and switched back to money supply variables as its main monetary policy instrument, in order to boost its efforts to control inflation amid large flows of foreign capital. It also broadened the official inflation target band, to increase credibility and influence expectations more effectively.

10 Measured by the consumer price index of the Metropolitan Area of Caracas.

Statistical annex (1-4)

TABLE A-1

Latin America and the Caribbean: main economic indicators

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

Annual growth rates

Gross domestic product b

5.9

4.5

5.6

5.5

4.0

-1.6

5.8

4.3

3.1

2.6

Per capita GDP b

4.5

3.2

4.3

4.3

2.8

-2.7

4.6

3.2

1.9

1.5

Consumer prices c

7.3

6.1

5.1

6.5

8.1

4.6

6.5

6.8

5.6

7.1

Percentages

Urban open unemployment

10.3

9.0

8.6

7.9

7.3

8.1

7.3

6.7

6.4

6.3

Total gross external debt / GDP d e

34.6

25.1

21.2

19.8

17.6

20.3

20.4

19.6

21.2

21.0

Total gross external debt / exports

139

102

85

84

74

102

98

89

94

97

of goods and services

Balance of payments e

Millions of dollars

Current account balance

22 702

36 465

50 329

13 196

-32 495

-22 358

-58 024

-78 349

-106 418

-143 607

Exports of goods, f.o.b.

483 488

583 346

696 889

783 530

908 149

706 216

894 874

1 109 423

1 125 009

1 129 988

Imports of goods, f.o.b.

424 703

502 391

598 399

713 525

867 878

653 065

846 109

1 036 841

1 078 806

1 114 094

Services trade balance

-12 197

-15 270

-16 725

-24 557

-31 771

-32 069

-48 933

-66 332

-73 320

-78 057

Income balance

-69 246

-82 554

-95 509

-99 294

-108 723

-101 352

-119 502

-147 642

-141 086

-143 529

Net current transfers

45 360

53 335

64 074

67 042

67 728

57 912

61 646

63 043

61 786

62 084

Capital and financial balance f

-7 982

24 574

13 546

111 943

71 146

68 643

144 168

184 355

164 350

146 853

Net foreign direct investment

50 188

57 346

32 460

92 817

99 089

70 226

76 516

126 269

128 848

149 056

Other capital movements

-58 169

-32 772

-18 914

19 127

-27 943

-1 584

67 652

58 087

35 502

-2 203

Overall balance

14 721

61 040

63 876

125 139

38 651

46 284

86 144

106 006

57 932

3 246

Variation in reserve assets g

-23 504

-39 643

-51 129

-127 084

-42 279

-50 586

-87 593

-106 408

-58 041

-3 246

Other financing

8 783

-21 397

-12 747

1 945

3 628

4 301

1 449

402

109

0

Net transfer of resources

-68 294

-80 010

-95 327

13 634

-33 949

-28 409

26 115

37 116

23 373

3 324

International reserves

225 752

262 160

318 912

458 914

512 348

567 042

655 643

773 885

835 700

832 061

Fiscal sector h

Percentages of GDP

Overall balance

-1.6

-1.0

0.1

0.3

-0.4

-2.8

-1.8

-1.6

-2.1

-2.4

Primary balance

0.7

1.4

2.3

2.3

1.2

-1.0

-0.2

0.1

-0.4

-0.6

Total revenue

16.7

17.7

18.7

19.2

19.3

18.2

18.7

19.1

19.5

20.0

Tax revenue

13.1

13.7

14.2

14.7

14.6

14.1

14.4

14.9

15.4

15.8

Total expenditure

18.4

18.7

18.6

18.9

19.7

20.9

20.5

20.8

21.6

22.4

Capital expenditure

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.9

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.9

5.1

Central government public debt

51.2

43.2

36.1

30.7

29.7

30.9

30.1

30.1

31.0

31.4

Public debt of the non-financial public-sector

54.9

46.3

38.8

33.4

32.4

33.6

32.4

32.3

33.6

33.7

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Preliminary figures.

b Based on official figures expressed in dollars at constant 2005 prices.

c December - December variation.

d Estimates based on figures denominated in dollars at current prices.

e Does not include Cuba.

f Includes errors and omissions.

g A minus sign (-) indicates an increase in reserve assets.

h Central government, except for Mexico and the Plurinational State of Bolivia, where coverages correspond to the public sector and the general government, respectively. Simple averages for 19 countries.

TABLE A-2

Latin America and the Caribbean: gross domestic product

(Annual growth rates)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

Latin America and the Caribbean b

5.9

4.5

5.6

5.5

4.0

-1.6

5.8

4.3

3.1

2.6

Latin America

5.9

4.5

5.5

5.6

4.1

-1.5

5.9

4.4

3.1

2.6

Argentina

9.0

9.2

8.5

8.7

6.8

0.9

9.2

8.9

1.9

4.5

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

4.2

4.4

4.8

4.6

6.1

3.4

4.1

5.2

5.2

6.4

Brazil

5.7

3.2

4.0

6.1

5.2

-0.3

7.5

2.7

1.0

2.4

Chile

6.0

5.6

4.6

4.6

3.7

-1.0

5.8

5.9

5.6

4.2

Colombia

5.3

4.7

6.7

6.9

3.5

1.7

4.0

6.6

4.2

4.0

Costa Rica

4.3

5.9

8.8

7.9

2.7

-1.0

5.0

4.4

5.1

3.2

Cuba

5.8

11.2

12.1

7.3

4.1

1.5

2.4

2.8

3.0

3.0

Dominican Republic

1.3

9.3

10.7

8.5

5.3

3.5

7.8

4.5

3.9

3.0

Ecuador

8.2

5.3

4.4

2.2

6.4

0.6

3.5

7.8

5.1

3.8

El Salvador

1.9

3.6

3.9

3.8

1.3

-3.1

1.4

2.2

1.9

1.7

Guatemala

3.2

3.3

5.4

6.3

3.3

0.5

2.9

4.2

3.0

3.4

Haiti

-3.5

1.8

2.3

3.3

0.8

2.9

-5.4

5.6

2.8

4.0

Honduras

6.2

6.1

6.6

6.2

4.2

-2.4

3.7

3.8

3.9

2.6

Mexico

4.2

3.1

5.0

3.2

1.4

-4.7

5.2

3.8

3.9

1.3

Nicaragua

5.3

4.3

4.2

5.0

4.0

-2.2

3.6

5.4

5.2

4.6

Panama

7.5

7.2

8.5

12.1

10.1

3.9

7.5

10.9

10.8

7.5

Paraguay

4.1

2.1

4.8

5.4

6.4

-4.0

13.1

4.3

-1.2

13.0

Peru

5.0

6.8

7.7

8.9

9.8

0.9

8.8

6.9

6.3

5.2

Uruguay

11.8

6.6

4.1

6.5

7.2

2.2

8.9

6.5

3.9

4.5

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

18.3

10.3

9.9

8.8

5.3

-3.2

-1.5

4.2

5.6

1.2

The Caribbean

3.7

3.6

7.7

3.2

1.3

-3.5

0.1

0.5

1.2

1.3

Antigua and Barbuda

5.3

6.1

13.4

9.5

0.1

-12.0

-7.2

-2.0

3.3

1.5

Bahamas

0.9

3.4

2.5

1.4

-2.3

-4.2

1.0

1.7

1.8

1.6

Barbados

1.4

4.0

5.7

1.7

0.3

-4.1

0.3

0.8

0.0

-0.7

Belize

4.6

3.0

4.7

1.2

3.8

0.3

3.1

2.1

4.0

1.6

Dominica

2.6

-0.3

4.6

6.0

7.8

-1.1

1.2

0.2

-1.1

-0.5

Grenada

-0.6

13.3

-4.0

6.1

0.9

-6.6

-0.5

0.8

-1.8

1.5

Guyana

1.6

-2.0

5.1

7.0

2.0

3.3

4.4

5.4

4.8

4.8

Jamaica

1.3

0.9

2.9

1.4

-0.8

-3.4

-1.4

1.4

-0.5

0.1

Saint Kitts and Nevis

4.6

9.3

5.9

2.8

4.1

-5.6

-3.2

1.7

-1.2

1.6

Saint Lucia

7.2

-0.4

7.2

1.4

4.7

-0.1

-0.7

1.4

-1.3

1.1

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

4.2

2.5

7.7

3.3

1.6

-2.1

-3.3

-0.4

1.6

2.1

Suriname

0.5

7.2

11.4

5.1

4.1

3.0

4.1

4.7

4.4

3.9

Trinidad and Tobago

8.0

5.4

14.4

4.5

3.4

-4.4

0.2

-1.6

1.5

1.6

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Preliminary figures.

b Based on official figures expressed in dollars at constant 2005 prices.

TABLE A-3

Latin America and the Caribbean: per capita gross domestic product

(Annual growth rates)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

Latin America and the Caribbean b

4.5

3.2

4.3

4.3

2.8

-2.7

4.6

3.2

1.9

1.5

Latin America

4.6

3.1

4.1

4.3

2.9

-2.7

4.8

3.2

2.0

1.5

Argentina

8.1

8.2

7.5

7.7

5.8

-0.0

8.2

7.9

1.0

3.6

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

2.2

2.5

3.0

2.8

4.4

1.7

2.5

3.6

3.6

4.9

Brazil

4.4

2.0

2.9

5.1

4.2

-1.2

6.6

1.9

0.2

1.7

Chile

4.9

4.5

3.5

3.6

2.7

-2.0

4.8

4.9

4.6

3.3

Colombia

3.7

3.1

5.1

5.3

2.0

0.2

2.5

5.2

2.8

2.6

Costa Rica

2.4

4.1

7.0

6.2

1.2

-2.5

3.5

3.0

3.7

1.9

Cuba

5.5

11.0

12.0

7.2

4.1

1.5

2.4

2.8

3.0

3.0

Dominican Republic

-0.2

7.7

9.1

7.0

3.8

2.1

6.3

3.1

2.6

1.7

Ecuador

6.2

3.4

2.6

0.5

4.6

-1.1

1.8

6.0

3.4

2.1

El Salvador

1.5

3.2

3.5

3.4

0.8

-3.6

0.8

1.7

1.3

1.1

Guatemala

0.6

0.7

2.8

3.7

0.8

-1.9

0.4

1.7

0.5

0.9

Haiti

-4.9

0.4

0.9

2.0

-0.4

1.6

-6.6

4.3

1.5

2.5

Honduras

4.1

4.0

4.5

4.1

2.2

-4.3

1.7

1.8

1.9

0.6

Mexico

2.9

1.8

3.7

1.9

0.1

-5.9

4.0

2.6

2.8

0.2

Nicaragua

4.0

3.0

2.8

3.7

2.7

-3.4

2.3

4.0

3.7

3.1

Panama

5.5

5.2

6.6

10.1

8.2

2.1

5.6

9.0

9.0

5.7

Paraguay

2.1

0.2

2.9

3.5

4.5

-5.6

11.2

2.6

-2.8

11.2

Peru

3.7

5.6

6.5

7.7

8.6

-0.1

7.6

5.7

5.1

4.0

Uruguay

11.9

6.6

3.9

6.3

6.8

1.9

8.6

6.2

3.6

4.1

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

16.2

8.4

8.0

6.9

3.5

-4.8

-3.0

2.6

4.0

-0.3

The Caribbean

2.9

2.9

7.0

2.5

0.7

-4.1

-0.5

-0.1

0.7

0.5

Antigua and Barbuda

4.2

5.0

12.2

8.3

-1.0

-13.0

-8.2

-3.0

2.3

0.5

Bahamas

-1.2

1.3

0.5

-0.5

-4.1

-5.8

-0.7

0.0

0.3

0.1

Barbados

0.9

3.5

5.2

1.2

-0.1

-4.6

-0.2

0.3

-0.5

-1.2

Belize

2.0

0.4

2.0

-1.3

1.2

-2.2

0.6

-0.4

1.5

-0.8

Dominica

2.2

-0.6

4.4

5.8

7.7

-1.3

1.0

-0.1

-1.5

-1.0

Grenada

-0.9

12.9

-4.3

5.8

0.6

-6.9

-0.9

0.4

-2.2

1.1

Guyana

1.1

-2.5

4.5

6.3

1.3

2.6

3.7

4.8

4.2

4.2

Jamaica

0.6

0.3

2.3

1.0

-1.2

-3.8

-1.9

4.3

1.5

2.5

Saint Kitts and Nevis

3.0

7.7

4.4

1.5

2.8

-6.7

-4.4

0.5

-2.4

0.5

Saint Lucia

6.1

-1.6

5.7

-0.1

3.1

-1.5

-2.0

0.4

-2.2

0.3

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

4.0

2.3

7.5

3.2

1.5

-2.2

-3.3

-0.4

1.6

2.1

Suriname

-0.8

5.8

10.1

4.0

3.1

2.1

3.2

3.7

3.5

3.0

Trinidad and Tobago

7.4

4.8

13.8

3.9

2.9

-4.8

-0.2

-2.0

1.2

1.3

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Preliminary figures.

b Based on official figures expressed in dollars at constant 2005 prices.

TABLE A-4

Latin America and the Caribbean: gross fixed capital formation a

(Percentages of GDP)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 b

Latin America and the Caribbean

17.9

18.8

19.9

21.0

22.2

20.6

21.5

22.4

22.3

23.0

Argentina

19.1

21.5

23.4

24.4

25.0

22.2

24.7

26.4

24.7

25.2

Bahamas

19.9

24.2

29.0

27.8

25.8

24.2

24.3

25.7

31.1

…

Belize

17.6

18.5

18.0

18.4

22.7

18.3

14.0

13.7

14.4

…

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

12.7

13.0

13.5

14.6

16.3

16.2

16.8

19.7

19.0

19.0

Brazil

15.9

15.9

16.8

18.1

19.5

18.3

20.6

21.0

19.9

21.3

Chile

18.1

21.2

20.8

22.1

25.5

22.6

24.0

26.0

27.7

28.4

Colombia

18.2

19.7

21.8

23.3

24.7

24.0

24.2

26.9

27.8

28.8

Costa Rica

19.0

18.7

19.1

20.9

22.6

20.3

20.4

21.2

21.8

22.5

Cuba

8.3

9.0

11.5

11.0

11.4

10.5

9.9

10.2

…

…

Dominican Republic

15.8

16.4

17.9

18.6

19.3

15.9

17.3

16.2

16.2

14.4

Ecuador

19.4

20.4

20.5

20.8

22.7

21.8

23.2

25.0

26.4

26.9

El Salvador

15.5

15.3

16.5

17.1

16.0

13.3

13.5

15.0

14.5

13.9

Guatemala

18.1

18.3

20.1

19.8

18.1

15.6

14.9

15.2

15.4

14.6

Haiti

27.5

27.4

27.4

27.3

27.9

28.0

27.7

28.6

29.4

…

Honduras

26.8

24.9

26.5

31.0

31.6

21.0

20.5

23.1

23.1

22.2

Mexico

20.8

21.3

22.1

22.7

23.5

22.4

21.5

22.4

22.5

22.2

Nicaragua

21.8

23.0

22.5

23.7

23.0

20.4

20.0

23.2

28.7

29.2

Panama

16.9

16.8

18.1

22.7

25.9

23.4

24.3

26.2

27.5

28.2

Paraguay

16.5

16.6

16.5

17.6

19.5

18.9

20.3

21.6

20.2

20.2

Peru

17.5

18.3

20.2

22.9

27.5

25.0

29.0

29.6

32.0

33.5

Trinidad and Tobago

20.7

30.2

15.8

14.7

15.6

…

…

…

…

…

Uruguay

15.0

16.5

18.1

18.6

20.7

19.1

19.8

19.6

22.5

23.4

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

16.2

20.3

23.9

27.6

26.9

25.4

24.2

24.2

28.3

26.8

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Based on official figures expressed in dollars at constant 2005 prices.

b Preliminary figures.

Statistical annex (5)

TABLE A-5

Latin America and the Caribbean: balance of payments

(Millions of dollars)

Exports of goods, f.o.b.

Exports of services

Imports of goods, f.o.b.

Imports of services

2011

2012

2013 a

2011

2012

2013 a

2011

2012

2013 a

2011

2012

2013 a

Latin America and the Caribbean

1 109 423

1 125 009

1 129 988

138 023

141 820

141 071

1 036 841

1 078 806

1 114 094

204 354

215 140

219 331

Latin America

1 086 902

1 104 337

1 108 657

123 238

128 923

133 649

1 010 435

1 053 883

1 090 313

193 291

204 874

214 440

Argentina

84 051

80 927

83 593

15 670

15 076

14 836

71 126

65 556

71 074

17 804

18 657

19 305

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

8 358

11 233

11 458

880

944

1 015

7 927

8 269

9 013

1 249

1 417

1 553

Brazil

256 040

242 581

243 096

38 210

39 863

39 066

226 247

223 164

238 880

76 141

80 908

85 006

Chile

81 455

78 277

79 166

13 133

12 626

12 752

70 911

74 855

75 101

15 711

15 061

15 277

Colombia

58 336

61 471

60 323

4 766

5 314

5 831

52 232

56 703

56 874

9 503

10 767

11 274

Costa Rica

10 383

11 438

11 680

4 988

5 501

5 815

15 542

16 801

17 352

1 780

2 013

1 949

Dominican Republic

8 612

9 079

9 611

5 340

5 553

5 808

17 436

17 758

16 613

2 253

2 294

2 246

Ecuador

23 082

24 654

25 640

1 587

1 810

1 858

23 243

24 585

26 925

3 150

3 217

3 437

El Salvador

5 401

5 447

5 657

1 073

1 320

1 385

9 647

9 912

10 464

1 106

1 184

1 303

Guatemala

10 519

10 107

10 104

2 267

2 342

2 439

15 482

15 838

16 602

2 386

2 394

2 554

Haiti

768

785

851

249

261

225

3 014

2 679

2 755

1 140

1 161

1 051

Honduras

7 977

8 274

8 015

1 023

1 066

1 086

11 126

11 374

11 127

1 446

1 512

1 565

Mexico

349 946

371 378

382 160

15 582

16 146

19 496

351 209

371 151

382 331

30 375

30 708

31 921

Nicaragua

4 057

4 628

4 388

663

712

675

6 125

6 789

6 680

838

919

879

Panama

16 929

18 872

17 840

7 261

8 918

9 250

22 946

24 623

25 409

3 383

3 860

4 713

Paraguay

12 634

12 023

14 367

732

745

819

11 737

11 117

12 140

902

889

1 085

Peru

46 268

45 933

41 724

4 364

5 130

5 883

36 967

41 113

43 271

6 497

7 388

7 847

Uruguay

9 274

9 890

10 280

3 594

3 392

3 094

10 704

12 258

12 517

2 075

2 360

3 287

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

92 811

97 340

88 705

1 855

2 205

2 314

46 813

59 339

55 185

15 552

18 164

18 188

The Caribbean

22 521

20 672

21 331

14 784

12 897

7 422

26 406

24 923

23 781

11 062

10 265

4 891

Antigua and Barbuda

56

59

61

482

483

489

431

484

494

211

204

218

Bahamas

834

984

1 007

2 631

2 767

2 593

2 966

3 385

3 284

1 292

1 538

1 533

Barbados

448

…

…

1 405

…

…

1 703

…

…

578

…

…

Belize

604

626

616

340

407

443

775

837

916

172

188

202

Dominica

33

41

…

153

152

…

199

183

…

64

64

…

Grenada

37

43

45

159

164

162

295

300

305

100

95

99

Guyana

1 129

1 396

1 413

298

298

...

1 771

1 997

1 891

434

526

…

Jamaica

1 665

1 667

1 780

2 620

2 601

2 830

5 922

5 810

5 800

1 950

1 957

1 950

Saint Kitts and Nevis

68

64

62

173

194

201

246

228

251

115

120

126

Saint Lucia

194

197

200

381

389

403

616

537

551

203

190

196

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

43

48

50

139

141

145

292

315

320

84

87

89

Suriname

2 467

2 563

2 620

201

175

155

1 679

1 782

1 994

563

594

479

Trinidad and Tobago

14 944

12 983

13 476

5 803

5 128

...

9 511

9 065

7 976

5 297

4 703

...

Goods and services balance

Income balance

Current transfers

balance

Current account

balance

2011

2012

2013 a

2011

2012

2013 a

2011

2012

2013 a

2011

2012

2013 a

Latin America and the Caribbean

6 251

-27 117

-62 162

-147 642

-141 086

-143 529

63 043

61 786

62 084

-78 349

-106 418

-143 607

Latin America

6 413

-25 498

-62 446

-143 198

-136 518

-140 722

60 299

59 034

59 159

-76 486

-102 982

-144 010

Argentina

10 791

11 791

8 050

-12 400

-11 452

-10 793

-565

-395

-228

-2 173

-57

-2 971

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

62

2 491

1 906

-1 161

-1 629

-1 944

1 175

1 266

1 358

77

2 127

1 321

Brazil

-8 139

-21 629

-41 724

-47 319

-35 447

-38 848

2 985

2 846

2 947

-52 474

-54 230

-77 624

Chile

7 966

987

1 540

-14 141

-12 676

-11 629

2 892

2 192

2 364

-3 283

-9 497

-7 725

Colombia

1 367

-685

-1 994

-16 040

-15 967

-15 192

4 834

4 479

4 733

-9 839

-12 173

-12 453

Costa Rica

-1 951

-1 875

-1 806

-567

-833

-799

323

333

321

-2 195

-2 374

-2 284

Dominican Republic

-5 737

-5 420

-3 440

-2 089

-2 192

-2 253

3 417

3 371

3 402

-4 409

-4 240

-2 291

Ecuador

-1 723

-1 338

-2 864

-1 223

-1 305

-1 340

2 721

2 486

2 435

-225

-157

-1 770

El Salvador

-4 279

-4 329

-4 724

-632

-932

-1 023

3 841

4 004

4 035

-1 070

-1 258

-1 712

Guatemala

-5 082

-5 783

-6 612

-1 650

-1 371

-1 083

5 134

5 708

6 022

-1 599

-1 447

-1 673

Haiti

-3 137

-2 795

-2 730

41

68

68

2 757

2 368

2 395

-339

-359

-267

Honduras

-3 572

-3 547

-3 592

-974

-1 275

-966

3 138

3 235

3 520

-1 408

-1 587

-1 038

Mexico

-16 056

-14 335

-12 596

-19 179

-22 866

-26 518

22 974

22 559

21 546

-12 262

-14 642

-17 568

Nicaragua

-2 244

-2 368

-2 496

-254

-292

-304

1 230

1 310

1 389

-1 268

-1 350

-1 411

Panama

-2 139

-693

-3 032

-1 854

-2 656

-3 551

167

81

62

-3 826

-3 267

-6 521

Paraguay

727

762

1 961

-1 308

-1 476

-1 459

714

759

695

132

44

1 197

Peru

7 169

2 563

-3 510

-13 710

-12 701

-11 404

3 200

3 296

3 225

-3 341

-6 842

-11 690

Uruguay

89

-1 337

-2 430

-1 614

-1 469

-1 859

154

116

114

-1 371

-2 690

-4 175

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

32 301

22 042

17 646

-7 124

-10 048

-9 824

-790

-978

-1 177

24 387

11 016

6 644

The Caribbean

-163

-1 619

284

-4 444

-4 568

-2 807

2 743

2 752

2 926

-1 863

-3 435

403

Antigua and Barbuda

-104

-146

-161

-39

-51

-53

26

30

30

-118

-167

-184

Bahamas

-793

-1 172

-1 217

-236

-263

-298

-36

11

16

-1 066

-1 424

-1 499

Barbados

-427

...

...

-102

...

...

23

...

...

-506

...

...

Belize

-3

7

-59

-98

-118

-91

84

76

83

-17

-35

-68

Dominica

-77

-54

…

-11

-17

…

16

16

…

-71

-55

…

Grenada

-199

-189

-196

-32

-34

-28

24

30

26

-207

-193

-198

Guyana

-778

-829

-761

-9

-1

1

415

419

289

-372

-411

-471

Jamaica

-3 588

-3 498

-3 140

-518

-403

-407

1 996

1 996

2 300

-2 110

-1 906

-1 247

Saint Kitts and Nevis

-120

-89

-113

-30

-24

-19

47

29

28

-103

-84

-104

Saint Lucia

-245

-141

-143

-20

-35

-26

21

7

7

-244

-169

-162

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

-194

-214

-214

-13

-4

-4

8

25

24

-199

-193

-193

Suriname

426

362

302

-262

-194

-205

87

73

80

251

241

177

Trinidad and Tobago

5 939

4 344

5 987

-3 074

-3 424

-1 678

33

40

42

2 899

959

4 350

Capital and

financial balance b

Overall balance

Reserve assets

(variation) c

Other financing

2011

2012

2013 a

2011

2012

2013 a

2011

2012

2013 a

2011

2012

2013 a

Latin America and the Caribbean

184 355

164 350

146 853

106 006

57 932

3 246

-106 408

-58 041

-3 246

402

109

0

Latin America

181 699

162 041

146 014

105 213

59 059

2 003

-105 574

-59 125

-2 003

362

67

0

Argentina

-3 935

-3 248

-7 087

-6 108

-3 305

-10 058

6 108

3 305

10 058

0

0

0

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

2 083

-416

-998

2 160

1 712

323

-2 160

-1 712

-323

0

0

0

Brazil

111 111

73 130

73 024

58 637

18 900

-4 600

-58 637

-18 900

4 600

0

0

0

Chile

17 473

9 130

7 234

14 190

-367

-491

-14 190

367

491

0

0

0

Colombia

13 583

17 596

18 278

3 744

5 423

5 824

-3 744

-5 423

-5 824

0

0

0

Costa Rica

2 328

4 484

2 825

132

2 110

541

-132

-2 110

-541

0

0

0

Dominican Republic

4 563

3 806

2 291

154

-434

0

-331

542

...

177

-108

0

Ecuador

497

-424

3 339

272

-582

1 569

-336

475

-1 569

64

107

0

El Salvador

656

1 907

1 387

-414

649

-326

414

-649

326

0

0

0

Guatemala

1 805

1 946

1 937

206

499

264

-206

-499

-264

0

0

0

Haiti

525

536

267

186

177

0

-209

-209

...

23

31

0

Honduras

1 477

1 304

1 028

69

-283

-11

-86

283

11

18

-0

0

Mexico

40 442

32 166

29 368

28 180

17 524

11 800

-28 180

-17 524

-11 800

0

0

0

Nicaragua

1 295

1 329

1 443

27

-21

32

-73

3

-32

46

18

0

Panama

3 597

3 249

6 531

-228

-18

10

228

18

-10

0

0

0

Paraguay

649

-69

-400

782

-24

797

-784

25

-797

2

-0

0

Peru

8 032

21 650

14 094

4 691

14 808

2 404

-4 724

-14 827

-2 404

33

19

0

Uruguay

3 936

5 977

6 691

2 564

3 287

2 516

-2 564

-3 287

-2 516

0

0

0

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

-28 419

-12 012

-15 236

-4 032

-996

-8 592

4 032

996

8 592

0

0

0

The Caribbean

2 656

2 309

840

793

-1 127

1 243

-834

1 084

-1 242

40

43

0

Antigua and Barbuda

129

175

220

11

8

36

-11

-8

-36

0

0

0

Bahamas

1 090

1 350

1 301

24

-75

-198

-24

75

198

0

0

0

Barbados

473

...

...

-32

...

...

32

...

...

0

...

...

Belize

95

180

58

79

145

-10

-79

-145

10

0

0

0

Dominica

78

61

…

6

6

0

-6

-6

…

0

0

0

Grenada

209

191

216

2

-2

19

-2

2

-19

0

0

0

Guyana

357

423

380

-15

12

-91

-25

-55

91

40

43

0

Jamaica

1 905

1 065

1 967

-205

-841

720

205

841

-720

0

0

0

Saint Kitts and Nevis

166

108

147

62

24

43

-62

-24

-43

0

0

0

Saint Lucia

251

185

154

7

16

-8

-7

-16

8

0

0

0

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

176

214

210

-23

21

16

23

-21

-16

0

0

0

Suriname

-127

-61

-54

124

180

123

-124

-180

-123

0

0

0

Trinidad and Tobago

-2 146

-1 581

-3 758

753

-622

592

-753

622

-592

0

0

0

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Preliminary figures.

b Includes errors and omissions.

c A minus sign (-) indicates an increase in reserve assets.

Statistical annex (6-7)

TABLE A-6

Latin America and the Caribbean: international trade of goods

(Indices: 2005=100)

Exports of goods, f.o.b.

Value

Volume

Unit value

2011

2012

2013 a

2011

2012

2013 a

2011

2012

2013 a

Latin America

191.1

194.2

194.9

117.8

122.9

126.1

162.2

157.9

154.6

Argentina

208.1

200.4

207.0

133.0

126.2

131.7

156.5

158.8

157.2

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

295.7

397.4

405.3

134.2

174.3

181.5

220.3

228.0

223.4

Brazil

216.4

205.0

205.5

107.3

107.0

108.5

201.7

191.7

189.4

Chile

194.1

186.5

188.6

108.0

110.1

117.1

179.7

169.5

161.0

Colombia

268.5

282.9

277.6

148.7

156.7

159.4

180.6

180.6

174.1

Costa Rica

146.3

161.1

164.5

149.6

165.6

171.0

97.7

97.3

96.2

Dominican Republic

140.2

147.8

156.4

111.1

118.3

124.7

126.1

124.9

125.4

Ecuador

220.5

235.5

244.9

123.6

130.0

135.9

178.4

181.1

180.3

El Salvador

155.9

157.2

163.3

128.6

133.0

139.3

121.2

118.2

117.2

Guatemala

192.7

185.1

185.1

134.1

136.3

141.1

143.7

135.8

131.2

Haiti

167.1

170.8

185.3

137.8

127.7

133.0

121.3

133.8

139.3

Honduras

158.0

163.9

158.8

102.8

122.2

131.1

153.7

134.2

121.1

Mexico

163.0

173.0

178.1

123.2

133.4

138.1

132.3

129.7

128.9

Nicaragua

245.3

279.8

265.3

176.0

200.7

196.7

139.4

139.4

134.9

Panama

229.5

255.9

241.9

190.8

209.8

192.6

120.3

122.0

125.6

Paraguay

260.1

247.5

295.8

189.8

177.1

219.2

137.0

139.8

134.9

Peru

266.4

264.5

240.2

114.7

117.8

113.8

232.2

224.5

211.1

Uruguay

245.7

262.0

272.4

148.7

153.5

160.1

165.2

170.7

170.1

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

166.6

174.7

159.2

78.8

81.0

76.0

211.5

215.7

209.4

Imports of goods, f.o.b.

Value

Volume

Unit value

2011

2012

2013 a

2011

2012

2013 a

2011

2012

2013 a

Latin America

208.4

217.4

224.9

157.1

163.3

168.3

132.7

133.1

133.6

Argentina

260.5

240.1

260.3

210.3

190.2

203.2

123.9

126.2

128.1

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

326.1

340.2

370.8

231.6

241.4

258.6

140.8

140.9

143.4

Brazil

307.4

303.2

324.5

207.4

202.7

218.0

148.2

149.6

148.8

Chile

231.2

244.1

244.9

189.1

199.6

204.1

122.3

122.3

120.0

Colombia

259.4

281.6

282.5

194.4

211.3

210.7

133.4

133.3

134.1

Costa Rica

167.9

181.5

187.4

151.8

164.1

171.7

110.6

110.6

109.2

Dominican Republic

176.7

179.9

168.3

135.1

137.6

130.6

130.8

130.8

128.9

Ecuador

239.4

253.2

277.3

174.1

184.2

202.0

137.5

137.5

137.3

El Salvador

148.4

152.4

160.9

115.5

117.6

124.2

128.4

129.6

129.5

Guatemala

160.4

164.1

172.0

112.1

114.7

120.4

143.1

143.1

142.9

Haiti

230.3

204.8

210.6

132.6

110.7

117.2

173.7

185.0

179.6

Honduras

170.0

173.8

170.0

115.8

118.4

116.5

146.8

146.8

145.9

Mexico

158.0

166.9

172.0

125.0

132.1

134.4

126.4

126.4

127.9

Nicaragua

207.2

229.7

226.0

151.3

167.7

166.5

136.9

136.9

135.7

Panama

256.9

275.6

284.4

197.2

209.5

215.2

130.3

131.6

132.2

Paraguay

317.7

301.0

328.7

255.9

240.0

263.1

124.2

125.4

124.9

Peru

306.0

340.3

358.2

189.7

207.4

218.5

161.3

164.0

163.9

Uruguay

285.2

326.6

333.5

193.6

222.8

232.9

147.3

146.6

143.2

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

195.0

247.2

229.9

154.9

194.5

181.0

125.8

127.1

127.0

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Preliminary figures.

TABLE A-7

Latin America: terms of trade for goods, f.o.b./f.o.b.

(Indices: 2005=100)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

Latin America

95.3

100.0

106.7

109.6

112.9

103.3

113.4

122.2

118.6

115.7

Argentina

102.2

100.0

106.0

110.0

124.6

118.9

118.4

126.3

125.8

122.7

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

93.0

100.0

125.0

127.0

128.7

124.6

140.9

156.4

161.8

155.8

Brazil

98.7

100.0

105.3

107.5

111.3

108.7

126.1

136.1

128.1

127.2

Chile

89.3

100.0

131.1

135.6

117.9

119.3

146.0

146.9

138.5

134.2

Colombia

92.2

100.0

103.8

112.1

124.4

107.0

121.0

135.4

135.5

129.8

Costa Rica

104.0

100.0

97.1

96.1

92.5

95.6

91.8

88.4

87.9

88.1

Cuba

102.7

100.0

126.3

132.9

…

…

…

…

…

...

Dominican Republic

101.0

100.0

99.0

102.3

97.7

105.7

101.8

96.5

95.5

97.3

Ecuador

89.3

100.0

107.3

110.3

121.1

107.2

118.0

129.8

131.7

131.3

El Salvador

100.0

100.0

98.7

97.7

95.0

98.1

94.4

94.4

91.2

90.5

Guatemala

100.9

100.0

98.1

96.3

93.8

101.8

101.3

100.4

94.9

91.8

Haiti

103.8

100.0

96.2

93.5

67.2

87.0

84.1

69.8

72.3

77.5

Honduras

100.0

100.0

95.4

93.6

87.9

94.0

96.6

104.7

91.4

83.0

Mexico

98.1

100.0

100.5

101.4

102.2

90.8

97.7

104.7

102.6

100.7

Nicaragua

101.4

100.0

97.6

96.6

92.4

101.3

102.2

101.8

101.8

99.4

Panama

101.9

100.0

97.1

96.2

91.8

96.3

94.4

92.4

92.7

95.0

Paraguay

107.1

100.0

98.1

102.7

110.2

107.8

107.8

110.3

111.4

108.0

Peru

93.2

100.0

127.3

132.0

114.4

108.1

127.7

143.9

136.9

128.8

Uruguay

110.1

100.0

97.6

97.8

103.7

106.8

110.2

112.2

116.4

118.8

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

76.5

100.0

119.4

130.9

161.6

117.6

139.8

168.1

169.7

164.9

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Preliminary figures.

Statistical annex (8-14)

TABLE A-8

Latin America and the Caribbean (selected countries): remittances from emigrant workers

(Millions of dollars)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

178

304

569

1 020

1 084

1 023

939

1 012

1 094

572 b

Brazil

2 458

2 479

2 890

2 809

2 913

2 224

2 189

2 134

1 990

1 440

Colombia

3 170

3 314

3 861

4 430

4 789

4 090

3 996

4 064

3 970

2 688 c

Costa Rica

302

400

490

596

563

489

505

487

527

272 b

Dominican Republic

2 230

2 430

2 738

3 046

3 222

3 042

2 998

3 200

3 158

1 557 b

Ecuador

1 832

2 454

2 928

3 088

3 083

2 736

2 591

2 672

2 467

1 169 b

El Salvador

2 548

3 017

3 471

3 695

3 742

3 387

3 431

3 649

3 911

2 932

Guatemala

2 551

2 993

3 610

4 128

4 315

3 912

4 127

4 378

4 783

3 801

Haiti

...

...

...

...

...

366

1 506

1 554

1 212

...

Honduras

1 074

1 719

2 252

2 510

2 714

2 403

2 526

2 750

2 842

2 308

Jamaica

1 466

1 621

1 770

1 964

2 021

1 792

1 906

2 025

2 037

1 368 c

Mexico

18 332

21 688

25 567

26 059

25 144

21 306

21 304

22 803

22 438

16 248

Nicaragua

519

616

698

740

818

768

823

912

1 014

787

Peru

1 133

1 440

1 837

2 131

2 389

2 409

2 534

2 697

2 788

2 003

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Figures as of September.

b Figures as of June.

c Figures as of August.

TABLE A-9

Latin America and the Caribbean: net resource transfer a

(Millions of dollars)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 b

Latin America and the Caribbean

-68 294

-80 010

-95 327

13 634

-33 949

-28 409

26 115

37 116

23 373

3 324

Latin America

-67 994

-78 615

-90 975

15 163

-31 682

-27 854

28 634

38 863

25 590

5 291

Argentina

-7 175

-3 722

-10 388

-198

-14 317

-16 154

-8 544

-16 334

-14 700

-17 880

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

-571

-434

-175

-43

-154

-1 094

-707

923

-2 045

-2 942

Brazil

-29 955

-35 633

-10 553

56 642

-9 401

37 269

56 887

63 792

37 683

34 177

Chile

-10 615

-10 541

-23 481

-29 153

-1 352

-13 265

-14 886

3 332

-3 546

-4 395

Colombia

-849

-1 846

-2 896

2 776

-669

-2 873

31

-2 457

1 628

3 086

Costa Rica

432

1 166

2 058

1 929

2 022

-247

1 097

1 761

3 651

2 026

Cuba

150

-633

-618

-960

…

…

…

…

…

...

Dominican Republic

-2 324

-321

-221

666

2 462

1 248

3 096

2 651

1 506

38

Ecuador

-1 084

-1 580

-3 691

-2 138

-2 236

-2 258

-602

-662

-1 623

1 999

El Salvador

132

-59

375

1 039

1 477

179

-270

24

975

363

Guatemala

1 359

995

1 096

1 159

809

-902

29

154

574

854

Haiti

94

-20

201

286

465

479

1 033

589

636

335

Honduras

743

177

149

612

1 530

-429

546

521

29

61

Mexico

1 089

727

-10 998

1 098

7 372

-3 498

12 579

21 263

9 301

2 849

Nicaragua

616

590

804

1 178

1 315

780

838

1 087

1 056

1 139

Panama

-414

418

-1 198

925

1 562

-664

1 223

1 744

593

2 980

Paraguay

-1 093

-1 161

-1 101

-1 046

-915

-767

-1 036

-656

-1 545

-1 859

Peru

-1 354

-4 596

-7 681

-165

-288

-6 619

3 762

-5 645

8 968

2 689

Uruguay

-137

84

-52

710

3 045

929

-1 131

2 322

4 508

4 832

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

-17 037

-22 225

-22 603

-20 155

-24 408

-19 968

-25 312

-35 543

-22 060

-25 061

The Caribbean

-300

-1 395

-4 352

-1 529

-2 266

-554

-2 519

-1 747

-2 217

-1 968

Antigua and Barbuda

56

137

260

333

282

108

167

89

124

167

Bahamas

349

57

787

723

903

909

606

854

1 087

1 002

Barbados

58

263

89

293

204

102

278

372

...

...

Belize

7

25

-51

-84

38

22

-88

-3

61

-34

Dominica

20

62

48

66

108

116

73

67

44

...

Grenada

47

138

203

211

201

160

154

177

157

188

Guyana

-10

143

242

215

350

485

415

388

465

381

Jamaica

605

623

798

937

2 120

430

871

1 386

662

1 560

Saint Kitts and Nevis

43

23

70

89

184

172

142

136

84

128

Saint Lucia

47

40

268

295

257

125

195

231

150

129

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

99

70

106

168

204

189

221

163

210

206

Suriname

37

225

-211

-181

-96

-11

-720

-389

-255

-259

Trinidad and Tobago

-1 659

-3 200

-6 962

-4 594

-7 022

-3 362

-4 833

-5 220

-5 005

-5 436

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The net resource transfer is calculated as total net capital income minus the income balance (net payments of profits and interest). Total net capital income is the balance on the capital and financial accounts plus errors and omissions, plus loans and the use of IMF credit plus exceptional financing. Negative figures indicate resources transferred outside the country.

b Preliminary figures.

TABLE A-10

Latin America and the Caribbean: net foreign direct investment a

(Millions of dollars)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 b

Latin America and the Caribbean

50 188

57 346

32 460

92 817

99 089

70 226

76 516

126 269

128 848

149 056

Latin America

47 942

54 732

29 269

89 169

93 583

67 530

74 362

123 876

126 361

147 013

Argentina

3 449

3 954

3 099

4 969

8 335

3 307

6 884

9 232

11 076

9 029

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

63

-242

278

363

509

420

651

859

1 060

1 287

Brazil

8 339

12 550

-9 380

27 518

24 601

36 033

36 917

67 690

68 095

61 924

Chile

5 096

4 962

5 214

7 720

6 367

5 654

5 912

2 557

9 233

9 501

Colombia

2 873

5 590

5 558

8 136

8 110

3 789

-139

5 099

15 952

13 675

Costa Rica

733

904

1 371

1 634

2 072

1 339

1 441

2 098

1 859

…

Dominican Republic

909

1 123

1 085

1 667

2 870

2 165

1 896

2 275

3 610

…

Ecuador

837

493

271

194

1 058

308

163

641

591

486

El Salvador

366

398

268

1 455

824

366

117

385

516

224

Guatemala

255

470

552

720

737

574

782

1 009

1 167

1 316

Haiti

6

26

161

75

30

38

150

181

179

…

Honduras

553

599

669

926

1 007

505

971

1 012

1 004

1 064

Mexico

20 389

17 899

14 248

23 057

25 731

8 940

7 582

11 168

-7 782

24 600

Nicaragua

250

241

287

382

626

434

508

968

810

1 004

Panama

1 019

918

2 547

1 899

2 147

1 259

2 363

2 755

3 020

4 613

Paraguay

28

36

114

202

209

95

216

403

144

…

Peru

1 599

2 579

3 467

5 425

6 188

5 165

7 062

8 119

12 297

11 979

Uruguay

315

811

1 495

1 240

2 117

1 512

2 349

2 505

2 774

3 160

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

864

1 422

-2 032

1 587

45

-4 374

-1 462

4 919

756

3 152

The Caribbean

2 246

2 614

3 191

3 647

5 506

2 696

2 153

2 393

2 487

2 043

Antigua and Barbuda

80

221

359

338

159

81

97

65

129

135

Bahamas

274

563

706

746

860

497

872

667

360

345

Barbados

-16

119

200

256

223

218

…

…

…

…

Belize

111

126

108

139

167

108

96

94

195

84

Dominica

26

19

26

40

57

42

24

14

20

…

Grenada

65

70

90

157

135

103

60

43

31

62

Guyana

30

77

102

110

178

164

198

247

294

…

Jamaica

542

581

797

751

1 361

480

169

144

273

293

Saint Kitts and Nevis

56

93

110

134

178

131

116

110

92

92

Saint Lucia

77

78

234

272

161

146

121

81

76

94

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

66

40

109

119

159

110

97

86

115

122

Suriname

-37

28

-163

-247

-231

-93

-248

73

62

66

Trinidad and Tobago

973

599

513

830

2 101

709

549

771

840

751

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Corresponds to direct investment in the reporting economy after deduction of outward direct investment by residents of that country. Includes reinvestment of profits.

b Preliminary figures.

TABLE A-11

Latin America and the Caribbean: gross external debt a

(Millions of dollars, end-of-period stocks)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Latin America and the Caribbean

755 376

674 418

666 207

737 621

761 141

823 512

993 937

1 109 433

1 197 867

1 222 410

Latin America

743 558

662 303

653 596

724 726

747 790

809 286

977 324

1 092 182

1 180 511

1 207 373

Argentina

Total

171 205

113 768

108 839

124 542

124 916

115 537

129 333

140 655

141 126

135 040 b

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

Total

7 562

7 666

6 278

5 403

5 930

5 801

5 875

6 298

6 625

7 265 c

Brazil

Total

201 373

169 451

172 589

193 219

198 340

198 192

256 804

298 204

312 899

318 043 b

Chile

Total

43 515

46 211

49 497

55 733

64 318

74 041

86 738

98 895

117 776

124 496 c

Colombia

Total

39 497

38 507

40 103

44 553

46 369

53 719

64 723

75 903

78 642

85 140 d

Costa Rica

Total

5 766

6 763

7 191

8 444

9 105

8 238

9 189

10 714

14 510

15 891 b

Dominican Republic

Public

6 380

5 847

6 295

6 556

7 219

8 215

9 947

11 625

12 872

13 978 d

Ecuador

Total

17 211

17 237

17 099

17 445

16 900

13 514

13 914

15 210

15 903

17 935 b

El Salvador

Total

8 211

8 877

9 692

9 349

9 994

9 882

9 698

10 670

11 736

13 578 b

Guatemala

Total

…

8 832

9 844

10 909

11 163

11 248

12 026

14 021

15 758

15 919 b

Haiti

Public

1 376

1 335

1 484

1 628

1 917

1 272

353

727

1 049

…

Honduras

Total

6 023

5 135

3 935

3 190

3 464

3 345

3 773

4 188

4 844

5 686 c

Mexico

Total

130 925

128 248

119 084

128 090

129 424

165 932

197 727

209 743

229 032

231 468 b

Nicaragua

Public

5 391

5 348

4 527

3 385

3 512

3 661

3 876

4 073

4 289

4 440 e

Panama

Public

7 219

7 580

7 788

8 276

8 477

10 150

10 439

10 800

10 782

11 989 f

Paraguay

Total

2 901

2 700

2 739

2 868

3 256

3 167

3 719

3 823

3 773

4 207 c

Peru

Total

31 244

28 657

28 897

32 894

34 838

35 157

43 674

47 544

58 830

62 263 b

Uruguay

Total

14 082

13 717

12 977

14 864

15 425

17 969

18 425

18 345

21 117

21 269 b

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

Total

43 679

46 427

44 735

53 378

53 223

70 246

97 092

110 745

118 949

118 766 c

The Caribbean

Public

11 818

12 115

12 611

12 895

13 351

14 226

16 613

17 251

17 356

15 037

Antigua and Barbuda

Public

532

317

321

481

436

416

431

441

431

…

Bahamas

Public

285

287

289

273

384

703

711

799

1 037

1 052 g

Barbados

Public

676

777

958

997

989

1 198

1 359

1 382

1 325

1 268 e

Belize

Public

913

970

985

973

958

1 017

1 021

1 032

1 029

1 065 c

Dominica

Public

209

221

225

241

234

222

242

248

254

…

Grenada

Public

331

401

481

469

481

512

538

551

555

…

Guyana

Public

1 189

1 215

1 043

718

834

933

1 043

1 111

1 358

1 248 b

Jamaica

Public

5 120

5 376

5 796

6 123

6 344

6 594

8 390

8 626

8 256

8 274 b

Saint Kitts and Nevis

Public

304

299

310

313

328

306

317

342

306

…

Saint Lucia

Public

344

350

365

399

364

373

393

391

432

…

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Public

167

183

187

219

235

261

273

271

277

…

Suriname

Public

384

390

391

298

319

269

334

419

444

484 b

Trinidad and Tobago

Public

1 364

1 329

1 261

1 392

1 445

1 422

1 561

1 639

1 654

1 646 h

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Includes debt owed to the International Monetary Fund.

b First semester.

c Third quarter.

d Figures as of July.

e Figures as of October.

f Figures as of April.

g Figures as of August.

h First quarter.

TABLE A-12

Latin America and the Caribbean: sovereign spreads on EMBI+ and EMBI global

(Basis points to end of period)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

Latin America

EMBI+

420

283

186

268

722

328

305

410

317

402

Argentina

EMBI+

4 703

504

216

410

1 704

660

496

925

991

921

Belize

EMBI Global

...

...

...

...

...

...

617

1 391

2 245

873

Brazil

EMBI+

382

311

192

221

428

192

189

223

142

220

Chile

EMBI Global

64

80

84

151

343

95

115

172

116

161

Colombia

EMBI+

332

238

161

195

498

196

172

195

112

172

Dominican Republic

EMBI Global

...

...

...

...

...

...

322

597

343

362

Ecuador

EMBI+

690

669

920

614

4 731

769

913

846

826

499

El Salvador

EMBI Global

...

...

...

...

...

...

302

478

396

369

Jamaica

EMBI Global

...

...

...

...

...

...

427

637

711

648

Mexico

EMBI+

166

126

98

149

376

164

149

187

126

170

Panama

EMBI+

290

335

246

184

540

171

162

201

129

198

Peru

EMBI+

220

206

118

178

509

165

163

216

114

175

Uruguay

EMBI Global

388

298

185

243

685

238

188

213

127

190

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

EMBI+

411

318

182

506

1 862

1 017

1 044

1 197

773

997

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of information from JPMorgan, Emerging Markets Bond Index Monitor.

a Figures as of October.

TABLE A-13

Latin America and the Caribbean: risk premia on five-year credit default swaps

(Basis points to end of period)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

Argentina

-

367

203

462

4 041

914

602

922

1 442

1 756

Brazil

305

225

100

103

301

123

111

162

108

203

Chile

23

20

19

32

203

68

84

132

72

83

Colombia

341

167

114

130

309

143

113

156

96

127

Mexico

80

63

41

69

293

134

114

154

98

102

Panama

211

148

81

118

302

134

99

150

98

118

Peru

204

221

91

116

304

124

113

172

97

136

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

289

221

129

452

3 218

1 104

1 016

928

647

1 226

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of information from Bloomberg.

a Figures as of November.

TABLE A-14

Latin America and the Caribbean: international bond issues a

(Millions of dollars)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 b

Total

39 834

47 893

44 373

40 066

17 034

72 879

83 533

96 385

114 078

106 969

National issues

39 784

47 109

43 556

39 823

16 587

69 001

82 007

93 464

111 248

104 955

Argentina

200

540

1 896

3 326

65

686

3 146

2 193

663

150

Bahamas

-

-

-

-

100

300

-

-

-

-

Barbados

-

325

-

-

-

450

390

-

-

-

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

108

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

500

500

Brazil

11 603

15 038

19 489

10 433

6 400

30 631

39 580

38 147

49 946

36 709

Chile

2 350

900

1 062

250

-

3 773

6 750

6 049

9 443

9 970

Colombia

1 545

2 435

3 427

3 065

-

3 450

1 912

6 411

7 459

8 300

Costa Rica

310

-

-

-

-

-

-

250

1 250

3 000

Dominican Republic

-

160

675

605

-

-

1 034

750

750

1 800

Ecuador

-

650

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

El Salvador

286

375

925

-

-

800

450

654

800

310

Guatemala

330

-

-

-

-

-

-

150

1 200

1 050

Honduras

-

-

-

-

-

-

20

-

-

500

Jamaica

814

1 050

930

-

-

750

1 075

694

1 750

1 300

Mexico

15 647

14 153

8 464

10 249

5 336

19 338

19 957

25 846

28 147

32 291

Panama

1 176

1 530

2 076

670

686

1 323

0

897

1 100

850

Paraguay

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

100

500

500

Peru

1 305

2 675

333

1 827

-

1 150

4 693

2 455

7 240

5 725

Trinidad and Tobago

-

100

500

900

-

850

-

175

-

-

Uruguay

350

1 062

3 679

999

-

500

-

1 493

500

2 000

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

3 760

6 115

100

7 500

4 000

5 000

3 000

7 200

-

-

Supranational issues

50

784

817

243

447

3 878

1 526

2 921

2 830

2 014

Corporate

50

-

-

-

-

2 200

-

1 506

746

475

Arcos Dorados

-

-

-

-

-

900

-

256

146

375

Foreign Trade Bank of Latin America

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

400

-

Central American Bottling Corporation

50

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

200

100

Multilateral

-

784

817

243

447

1 678

1 526

1 415

2 084

1 539

Central American Bank for Economic Integration

-

200

183

-

-

500

151

-

250

245

Caribbean Development Bank

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

175

-

-

Andean Development Corporation

-

584

634

243

447

1 178

1 375

1 240

1 834

1 294

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures provided by Merrill-Lynch, JP Morgan and LatinFinance.

a Includes sovereign, bank and corporate bonds.

b Figures as of October.

Statistical annex (15-20)

TABLE A-15

Latin America and the Caribbean: stock exchange indices

(National indices to end of period, 31 December 2005=100)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

Argentina

89

100

135

139

70

150

228

160

185

368

Brazil

78

100

133

191

112

205

207

170

182

156

Chile

91

100

137

155

121

182

251

213

219

192

Colombia

46

100

117

112

79

122

163

133

155

139

Costa Rica

78

100

177

217

207

142

118

121

129

185

Ecuador

79

100

130

121

128

107

126

128

135

144

Jamaica

108

100

96

103

77

80

82

91

88

74

Mexico

73

100

149

166

126

180

217

208

246

239

Peru

77

100

268

365

147

295

487

406

430

316

Trinidad and Tobago

101

100

91

92

79

72

78

95

100

110

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

147

100

256

186

172

270

320

574

2 312

12 212

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of information from Bloomberg.

a Figures as of November.

TABLE A-16

Latin America and the Caribbean: gross international reserves

(Millions of dollars, end-of-period stocks)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

Latin America and the Caribbean

225 752

262 160

318 912

458 914

512 348

567 042

655 643

773 885

835 700

832 061

Latin America

219 316

254 021

309 242

447 797

498 511

553 130

639 769

756 937

819 987

817 152

Argentina

19 299

27 262

31 167

45 711

46 198

47 967

52 145

46 376

43 290

33 232

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

1 272

1 798

3 193

5 319

7 722

8 580

9 730

12 018

13 927

14 250

Brazil

52 935

53 799

85 839

180 334

193 783

238 520

288 575

352 012

373 147

364 505

Chile

16 016

16 963

19 429

16 910

23 162

25 371

27 864

41 979

41 640

40 817

Colombia

13 220

14 634

15 109

20 607

23 672

24 992

28 464

32 303

37 474

43 298

Costa Rica b

1 922

2 313

3 115

4 114

3 799

4 066

4 627

4 756

6 857

7 441

Dominican Republic b

825

1 929

2 251

2 946

2 662

3 307

3 765

4 098

3 559

3 963

Ecuador c

...

2 147

2 023

3 521

4 473

3 792

2 622

2 958

2 483

4 206

El Salvador

1 871

1 735

1 793

1 872

2 518

2 958

2 853

2 473

3 143

2 818

Guatemala b

3 529

3 783

4 061

4 310

4 659

5 213

5 954

6 188

6 694

6 658

Haiti

166

187

305

494

587

733

1 284

1 343

1 337

1 794 d

Honduras b

2 159

2 526

2 824

2 733

2 690

2 174

2 775

2 880

2 629

2 618 d

Mexico

64 198

74 110

76 330

87 211

95 302

99 893

120 587

149 209

167 050

177 162

Nicaragua

670

730

862

1 032

1 062

1 490

1 708

1 793

1 778

1 787

Panama b

699

1 245

1 379

2 094

2 637

3 222

2 843

2 514

2 441

2 451 d

Paraguay

1 168

1 293

1 703

2 462

2 864

3 861

4 169

4 984

4 994

5 832

Peru

12 649

14 120

17 329

27 720

31 233

33 175

44 150

48 859

64 049

66 453

Uruguay

2 512

3 078

3 091

4 121

6 360

7 987

7 743

10 302

13 605

16 117

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

24 208

30 368

37 440

34 286

43 127

35 830

27 911

29 892

29 891

21 750

The Caribbean

6 436

8 139

9 669

11 117

13 837

13 913

15 874

16 949

15 712

14 910

Antigua and Barbuda e

120

127

143

144

138

108

136

147

161

197 f

Bahamas

668

579

500

454

563

816

861

897

816

646 d

Barbados

387

416

444

622

523

563

575

587

630

403

Belize

40

58

95

99

156

210

216

242

289

393

Dominica e

42

49

63

60

55

64

66

75

92

88 f

Grenada e

122

94

100

110

104

112

103

106

104

123 f

Guyana

225

251

277

313

356

628

780

798

862

682

Jamaica

1 882

2 169

2 399

1 906

1 795

1 752

2 979

2 820

1 981

1 727

Saint Kitts and Nevis e

78

71

89

96

110

123

156

233

252

297 f

Saint Lucia e

130

114

132

151

140

151

182

192

208

201 f

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines e

74

69

78

86

83

75

111

88

109

126 f

Suriname

129

126

215

401

433

659

639

941

1 008

771

Trinidad and Tobago

2 539

4 015

5 134

6 674

9 380

8 652

9 070

9 822

9 200

9 257 g

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Figures as of October.

b Series corresponding to the harmonized monetary and financial statistics.

c Freely available international reserves.

d Figures as of September.

e Net international reserves.

f Figures as of June.

g Figures as of August.

TABLE A-17

Latin America and the Caribbean: real effective exchange rates a

(Indices: 2005=100, average values for the period)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012 b

2 013 b c

Latin America and the Caribbean d

106.8

100.0

97.2

94.3

88.6

88.0

85.2

82.9

80.8

80.7

Argentina

100.2

100.0

101.9

101.4

97.2

99.3

98.6

99.1

95.1

102.6

Barbados

101.6

100.0

97.4

98.6

97.8

93.1

89.4

91.5

90.4

90.7

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

92.6

100.0

102.3

101.3

92.5

84.3

88.0

86.7

82.1

78.4

Brazil

122.6

100.0

89.0

82.5

79.9

81.5

70.6

67.5

75.5

78.6

Chile

105.6

100.0

95.5

97.2

96.9

100.9

95.4

94.3

92.5

92.8

Colombia

113.1

100.0

101.9

91.5

87.9

91.9

79.1

79.1

75.4

77.7

Costa Rica

99.4

100.0

99.6

97.4

93.9

92.8

82.4

79.4

76.6

73.6

Dominican Republic

139.0

100.0

106.0

106.1

106.3

110.4

108.9

110.4

112.7

115.9

Dominica

97.2

100.0

101.8

104.7

105.5

108.1

106.8

110.1

112.2

112.8

Ecuador

96.1

100.0

101.4

107.0

109.0

101.9

100.1

102.2

99.8

98.3

El Salvador

98.5

100.0

100.7

101.7

103.0

100.4

101.9

103.2

103.6

104.9

Guatemala

108.5

100.0

97.0

96.6

91.7

94.6

94.2

90.1

88.6

87.0

Honduras

100.2

100.0

98.7

97.5

93.8

87.0

86.1

84.9

83.7

84.5

Jamaica

107.7

100.0

102.1

105.0

99.2

111.1

98.5

96.2

96.2

100.0

Mexico

103.7

100.0

100.0

100.9

103.3

117.9

108.9

108.9

112.3

106.2

Nicaragua

99.0

100.0

99.6

100.3

97.6

103.7

101.2

106.1

107.9

106.7

Panama

98.1

100.0

101.7

103.2

101.5

97.0

98.1

98.2

94.2

91.9

Paraguay

92.3

100.0

88.5

81.6

72.9

80.4

77.9

69.8

70.8

66.8

Peru

99.4

100.0

101.9

102.6

99.3

97.7

94.1

96.0

89.1

89.2

Trinidad and Tobago

100.3

100.0

96.6

94.8

90.7

82.6

78.7

79.2

73.5

70.4

Uruguay

111.8

100.0

99.1

99.0

92.1

90.7

78.7

76.6

74.2

68.5

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

98.2

100.0

93.3

83.6

68.5

52.4

79.6

69.8

58.3

62.9

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Annual averages. A country’s overall real effective exchange rate index is calculated by weighting its real bilateral exchange rate indices with each of its trading partners by each partner’s share in the country’s total trade flows in terms of exports and imports. The extraregional real effective exchange rate index excludes trade with other Latin American and Caribbean countries. A currency depreciates in real effective terms when this index rises and appreciates when it falls.

b Preliminary figures, weighted by trade in 2011.

c Figures as of October.

d Simple average of the extraregional real effective exchange rate for 20 countries.

TABLE A-18

Latin America and the Caribbean: participation rate

(Average annual rates)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2012

2013 a

January to October

Latin America and the Caribbean b

58.9

58.6

58.8

58.9

58.9

59.1

59.4

59.6

59.8

…

…

Argentina

Urban areas

60.3

59.9

60.3

59.5

58.8

59.3

58.9

59.5

59.3

58.8

59.0 c

Barbados

Nationwide total

69.4

69.6

67.9

67.8

67.6

67.0

66.6

67.6

66.2

67.2

66.6 d

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

Departamental capitals e

58.6

55.7

58.7

57.1

… |

56.9

57.3 f

…

…

…

…

Brazil

Six metropolitan areas

57.2

56.6

56.9

56.9

57.0

56.7

57.1

57.1

57.3

52.7

57.1

Chile g

Nationwide total

55.0

55.6

54.8

54.9

56.0

55.9 |

58.5

59.8

59.6

59.6

59.4 h

Colombia

Nationwide total

61.5

60.5

59.1

58.3

58.5

61.3

62.7

63.7

64.5

64.6

64.1

Costa Rica i

Nationwide total

54.4

56.8

56.6

57.0

56.7 |

60.4

59.1

60.7

60.1

60.1

59.7 j

Cuba k

Nationwide total

71.0

72.1

72.1

73.7

74.7

75.4

74.9

76.1

…

…

…

Dominican Republic

Nationwide total

56.3

55.9

56.0

56.1

55.6

53.8

55.0

56.2

56.5

56.5

55.7 l

Ecuador

Urban total

59.1

59.5

59.1

61.3

60.1

58.9

56.9

55.2

55.9

56.3

55.2 h

El Salvador m

Nationwide total

51.7

52.4

52.6 |

62.1

62.7

62.8

62.5

62.7

63.2

…

…

Guatemala n

Nationwide total

56.1

…

…

60.1

…

…

54.3 |

61.8

65.4

…

…

Honduras

Nationwide total

50.6

50.9

50.7

50.7

51.0

53.1

53.6

51.9

50.8

50.8

53.7 o

Jamaica

Nationwide total

64.3

64.2

64.7

64.9

65.4

63.5

62.4

62.3

61.9

61.9

63.1

Mexico

Nationwide total

57.6

58.0

58.7

58.8

58.6

58.7

58.4

58.6

59.2

59.3

59.0

Nicaragua i

Nationwide total

53.1

53.8

51.4

53.4

53.3 |

66.9

72.1

74.9

…

…

…

Panama

Nationwide total

63.3

63.6

62.6

62.7

63.9

64.1

63.5

61.9

63.5

63.4

64.1 p

Paraguay

Nationwide total

63.4

61.8

59.4

60.8

61.7

62.9

60.5

60.7

64.3

…

…

Peru

Metropolitan Lima

68.0

67.1

67.4

68.9

68.1

68.4

70.0

70.0

69.1

69.2

68.9 h

Trinidad and Tobago

Nationwide total

63.0

63.7

63.9

63.5

63.5

62.7

62.1

61.3

61.9 q

…

…

Uruguay

Nationwide total

58.5

58.5

60.7

62.5

62.7

63.4

62.9

64.8

64.0

63.9

63.5

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

Nationwide total

68.5

66.3

65.4

64.9

64.9

65.1

64.6

64.4

63.9

64.0

64.4

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The figures in the last two columns refer to the period January-October.

b The regional series are weighted averages of national data (excluding Guatemala, Nicaragua and the Plurinational State of Bolivia) and include adjustments for lack of information and changes in methodology. The data relating to the different countries are not comparable owing to differences in coverage and in the definition of the working-age population.

c The figures in the last two columns refer to the period January-June.

d The figures in the last two columns refer to the first quarter.

e Up to 2007, urban areas.

f First semester.

g New measurements have been used since 2010; the data are not comparable with the previous series.

h The figures in the last two columns refer to the period January-September.

i New measurements have been used since 2009; the data are not comparable with the previous series.

j The figures in the last two columns refer to the measurement of July.

k The working-age population is measured as follows: for males, 17 to 59 years and for females, 15 to 54 years.

l The figures in the last two columns refer to the measurement of April.

m New measurements have been used since 2007; the data are not comparable with the previous series.

n New measurements have been used since 2011; the data are not comparable with the previous series.

o The figures in the last two columns refer to the measurement of May.

p The figures in the last two columns refer to the measurement of August.

q Average of the March, June and September measurements.

TABLE A-19

Latin America and the Caribbean: open urban unemployment a

(Average annual rates)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 b

Latin America and the Caribbean c

10.3

9.0

8.6

7.9

7.3

8.1

7.3

6.7

6.4

6.3

Argentina

Urban areas

13.6

11.6

10.2

8.5

7.9

8.7

7.7

7.2

7.2

7.1 d

Bahamas e

Nationwide total

10.2

10.2

7.6

7.9

8.7

14.2

…

15.9

14.0

16.2

Barbados e

Nationwide total

9.8

9.1

8.7

7.4

8.1

10.0

10.8

11.2

11.6

11.0 f

Belize e

Nationwide total

11.6

11.0

9.4

8.5

8.2

13.1

12.5

…

15.3

…

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

Departamental capitals g

6.2

8.1

8.0

7.7 |

6.7

7.9

6.1

5.8

…

…

Brazil

Six metropolitan areas

11.5

9.8

10.0

9.3

7.9

8.1

6.7

6.0

5.5

5.5

Chile

Nationwide total

10.0

9.2

7.7

7.1

7.8

9.7 |

8.2

7.1

6.4

5.9

Colombia e

Thirteen metropolitan areas

15.8

14.3

13.1

11.4

11.5

13.0

12.4

11.5

11.2

10.6

Colombia h

Thirteen metropolitan areas

14.4

13.1

12.2

10.7

11.0

12.4

11.8

10.9

10.6

10.0

Costa Rica i

Urban total

6.7

6.9

6.0

4.8

4.8 |

8.5

7.1

7.7

7.8

8.3

Cuba

Nationwide total

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.7

2.5

3.2

3.8

…

Dominican Republic

Nationwide total

6.1

6.4

5.5

5.1

4.7

5.3

5.0

5.8

6.5

7.0 j

Ecuador e

Urban total

9.7

8.5

8.1

7.4

6.9

8.5

7.6

6.0

4.9

4.6 d

Ecuador h

Urban total

7.0

6.5

5.7

5.5

5.3

6.8

6.1

4.9

4.2

4.1 d

El Salvador

Urban total

6.5

7.3

5.7

5.8

5.5

7.1

6.8

6.6

6.2

…

Guatemala k

Urban total

4.4

…

…

…

…

…

4.8 |

3.1

4.0

3.9

Honduras

Urban total

8.0

6.5

4.9

4.0

4.1

4.9

6.4

6.8

5.6

6.0

Jamaica e

Nationwide total

11.7

11.3

10.3

9.8

10.6

11.4 |

12.4

12.6

13.9

15.4 l

Jamaica h

Nationwide total

6.4

5.8

5.8

6.0

6.9

7.5 |

8.0

8.4

9.3

10.3 l

Mexico

Urban areas

5.3

4.7

4.6

4.8

4.9

6.7

6.4

6.0

5.8

5.8

Nicaragua

Urban total

9.3

7.0

7.0

6.9

8.0

10.5

9.7

…

…

…

Panama e

Urban total

14.1

12.1

10.4

7.8

6.5

7.9

7.7

5.4

4.8

4.7

Panama h

Urban total

11.4

9.8

8.4

5.8

5.0

6.3

5.8

3.6

3.6

3.7

Paraguay

Urban total

10.0

7.6

8.9

7.2

7.4

8.2

7.0

6.5

6.1

…

Peru

Urban total

9.4

9.6

8.5

8.4

8.4

8.4

7.9

7.7

6.8

6.0

Trinidad and Tobago e

Nationwide total

8.4

8.0

6.2

5.6

4.6

5.3

5.9

5.1

5.0 m

…

Uruguay

Urban total

13.1

12.2

11.4

9.6

7.9

7.6

7.1

6.6

6.7

6.8

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

Nationwide total

15.3

12.4

9.9

8.4

7.3

7.9

8.7

8.3

8.1

7.8

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of household surveys.

a Unemployed population as a percentage of the economically active population.

b Estimate based on data from January to October.

c Weighted average adjusted for lack of information and differences and changes in methodology. The data relating to the different countries are not comparable owing to differences in coverage and in the definition of the working age population.

d Estimate based on data from January to September.

e Includes hidden unemployment.

f January-June average.

g Up to 2007, urban areas.

h Includes an adjustment to the figures for the economically active population for exclusion of hidden unemployment.

i New measurements have been used since 2009; the data are not comparable with the previous series.

j Figure for April.

k Owing to methodological changes, as of 2011 the data are not comparable with the previous series.

l January-July average.

m Average of the March, June and September measurements.

TABLE A-20

Latin America and the Caribbean: employment rate a

(Average annual rates)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2012

2013 b

January to October

Latin America and the Caribbean c

53.0

53.4

53.8

54.3

54.6

54.4

55.0

55.5

55.9

…

…

Argentina

Urban areas

52.0

52.9

54.1

54.5

54.2

54.2

54.4

55.2

55.0

54.6

54.5 d

Bahamas

Nationwide total

68.0

68.5

69.4

70.2

69.7

63.0

…

60.6

64.1

…

…

Barbados

Nationwide total

62.7

63.2

61.9

62.7

62.1

60.3

59.4

60.0

58.5

59.3

58.9 e

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

Departmental capitals f

55.0

51.2

54.0

52.7

… |

52.4

53.6

…

…

…

…

Brazil

Six metropolitan areas

50.6

51.0

51.2

51.6

52.5

52.1

53.2

53.7

54.2

54.0

54.0

Chile g

Nationwide total

49.5

50.4

50.5

51.0

51.7

50.5 |

53.7

55.5

55.7

55.6

55.8 h

Colombia

Nationwide total

53.1

53.4

52.0

51.8

51.9

53.9

55.4

56.8

57.9

57.8

57.8

Costa Rica i

Nationwide total

50.9

53.0

53.3

54.4

53.9 |

55.4

54.8

56.0

55.4

55.4

54.6 j

Cuba k

Nationwide total

69.7

70.7

70.7

72.4

73.6

74.2

73.0

73.6

…

…

…

Dominican Republic

Nationwide total

46.0

45.9

46.9

47.4

47.7

45.8

47.1

48.0

48.2

48.4

47.4 l

Ecuador

Urban total

53.5

54.4

54.3

56.8

56.0

53.9

52.6

51.9

53.2

53.6

52.7 h

El Salvador m

Nationwide total

48.2

48.3

49.2 |

58.1

59.0

59.2

58.1

58.6

59.4

…

…

Guatemala n

Urban total

54.3

…

…

58.6

…

…

52.4 |

59.2

63.5 o

63.5

58.6 p

Honduras

Nationwide total

47.6

48.6

49.0

49.2

49.4

51.5

51.5

49.7

49.0

49.0

51.6 q

Jamaica

Nationwide total

56.8

57.0

58.0

58.6

58.5

56.3 |

54.6

54.4

54.1

53.3

53.4

Mexico

Nationwide total

55.4

55.8

56.7

56.7

56.3

55.4

55.3

55.5

56.3

56.4

56.1

Nicaragua j

Nationwide total

49.6

50.8

48.8

48.6

50.1 |

61.8

66.8

…

…

…

…

Panama

Nationwide total

55.9

57.3

57.2

58.7

60.3

59.9

59.4

59.1

60.8

60.8

61.5 r

Paraguay

Nationwide total

58.8

58.2

55.4

57.4

57.0

57.1

57.1

57.3

61.2

…

…

Peru

Urban total

61.6

60.7

61.8

63.0

62.4

62.7

64.5

64.5

64.4

64.2

64.7 h

Trinidad and Tobago

Nationwide total

57.8

58.6

59.9

59.9

60.6

59.4

58.4

58.2

58.8 s

…

…

Uruguay

Nationwide total t

50.9

51.4 |

54.1

56.7

57.7

58.5

58.4

60.7

59.9

59.6

59.1

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

Nationwide total

58.1

58.1

58.9

59.5

60.2

60.0

59.0

59.0

58.7

58.8

59.4

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Employed population as a percentage of the working-age population.

b The figures in the last two columns refer to the period January-October.

c The regional series are weighted averages of national data (excluding Guatemala, Nicaragua and the Plurinational State of Bolivia) and include adjustments for lack of information and changes in methodology. The data relating to the different countries are not comparable owing to differences in coverage and in the definition of the working-age population.

d The figures in the last two columns refer to the period January-June.

e The figures in the last two columns refer to the first quarter.

f Up to 2007, urban areas.

g New measurements have been used since 2010; the data are not comparable with the previous series.

h The figures in the last two columns refer to the period January-September.

i New measurements have been used since 2009; the data are not comparable with the previous series.

j The figures in the last two columns refer to the measurement of July.

k The working-age population is measured as follows: for males, 17 to 59 years and for females, 15 to 54 years.

l New measurements have been used since 2007; the data are not comparable with the previous series.

m Owing to methodological changes, as of 2011 the data are not comparable with the previous series.

n Average of the June and July measurements.

o Average of the April and May measurements.

p The figures in the last two columns refer to the measurement of May.

q The figures in the last two columns refer to the measurement of August.

r The figures in the last two columns refer to the measurement of April.

s Average of the March, June and September measurements.

t Up to 2005, urban total.

Statistical annex (21-22)

TABLE A-21

Latin America: real average wages

(Indices: 2005=100) a

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 b

Bolivia (Plurinational State of) c

103.7

100.0

92.7

86.8

80.1

81.9

84.5

83.4

…

…

Brazil d

100.4

100.0

103.5

105.0

107.2

108.6

110.9

113.6

117.8

120.4 e

Chile f

98.1

100.0

101.9

104.8

104.6

109.6

112.0

114.8

118.5

123.3

Colombia g

98.8

100.0

104.0

103.8

102.2

103.5

106.4

106.7

107.8

110.7 e

Costa Rica h

101.9

100.0

101.6

102.9

100.9

108.6

110.9

117.2

118.8

119.9 e

Cuba

88.5

100.0

111.6

109.9

110.0

115.1

118.5

118.8

119.3

…

El Salvador i

102.4

100.0

100.4

98.0

94.9

98.2

99.3

96.4

93.7

…

Guatemala h

104.2

100.0

98.9

97.3

94.8

94.9

97.6

98.0

101.9

…

Mexico h

98.1

100.0

101.6

103.1

103.3

102.3

101.4

102.2

102.4

102.6

Nicaragua h

99.9

100.0

102.2

100.0

96.0

101.6

102.8

103.0

103.3

103.2 e

Panama

101.2

100.0

102.0

103.4

99.1

101.8

109.0

109.1

112.9

114.9 j

Paraguay

99.0

100.0

100.6

103.0

102.3

106.8

107.6

110.5

111.3

114.8 k

Peru l

102.0

100.0

101.2

99.4

101.6

104.8

107.5

…

…

…

Uruguay

95.6

100.0

104.3

109.3

113.2

121.4

125.5

130.5

136.0

139.8

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

97.5

100.0

105.1

106.4

101.6

95.7

90.6

93.3

98.8

94.5 e

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Figures deflated by the official consumer price index of each country.

b Estimate based on data from January to October.

c Private sector average wage index.

d Private sector workers covered by social and labour legislation.

e Estimate based on data from January to September.

f General index of hourly remuneration.

g Manufacturing.

h Average wage declared by workers covered by social security.

i Gross salary.

j January-July average.

k Figure for June.

l Private-sector workers in the Lima metropolitan area.

TABLE A-22

Latin America and the Caribbean: monetary indicators

(Percentage variation with respect to the year-earlier period)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

Latin America

Argentina

Monetary base

28.2

10.5

23.7

29.0

19.1

5.4

25.1

37.1

34.9

31.7

Money (M1)

47.2

22.8

25.2

23.4

16.7

13.0

24.1

32.4

33.3

30.6 b

M2

30.3

22.6

22.4

24.5

18.1

5.9

27.6

36.9

32.4

32.5 b

Foreign-currency deposits

143.8

21.2

37.9

27.8

36.4

61.6

35.9

8.7

-22.6

-14.0 b

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

Monetary base

5.0

27.4

44.3

48.2

53.8

19.6

32.4

11.6

18.2

13.4 c

Money (M1)

15.7

31.4

45.1

55.2

50.2

9.4

24.1

27.2

18.3

13.7 c

M2

19.4

39.8

53.6

68.1

59.6

18.4

34.6

34.0

31.3

23.8 c

Foreign-currency deposits

-4.6

4.8

-2.8

11.2

-9.2

20.4

4.7

-12.8

-5.0

-4.3 c

Brazil

Monetary base

10.7

15.3

18.6

20.9

12.5

8.0

17.5

11.0

9.4

5.9 d

Money (M1)

18.9

13.8

15.4

23.3

11.8

7.4

17.5

6.1

5.9

11.8 d

M2

12.8

18.4

15.6

14.1

30.3

22.1

11.1

21.0

13.4

8.8 d

Chile

Monetary base

13.7

16.5

14.6

20.8

7.0

15.0

13.8

14.8

13.7

16.6

Money (M1)

21.6

13.9

11.3

17.9

11.1

14.1

27.7

10.9

9.1

10.6

M2

11.9

21.2

18.0

20.3

17.7

3.7

5.1

14.7

14.7

9.4

Foreign-currency deposits

3.9

2.1

17.4

11.6

40.7

2.6

8.5

11.8

8.9

17.8

Colombia

Monetary base

16.6

19.6

23.2

18.1

14.3

10.3

12.4

15.1

9.5

11.8 d

Money (M1)

15.1

18.5

20.6

13.5

8.0

9.7

14.7

16.2

6.7

13.1 b

M2

13.9

20.1

18.0

18.7

14.6

13.2

6.9

14.8

16.9

17.7 b

Costa Rica

Monetary base

22.1

27.2

30.2

25.4

25.7

6.3

10.0

11.7

12.1

14.2 b

Money (M1)

14.4

18.1

25.2

41.1

21.7

-3.4

9.5

19.2

9.4

11.1 b

M2

16.6

28.4

29.9

34.9

22.9

1.3

2.6

11.1

13.8

13.4 b

Foreign-currency deposits

34.5

24.5

17.0

7.2

10.7

36.8

-1.9

-7.1

-1.2

1.8 b

Dominican Republic

Monetary base

32.4

9.0

13.2

18.4

12.3

3.4

6.4

5.8

9.0

5.1 d

Money (M1)

35.0

5.6

29.7

26.7

11.0

-1.1

17.7

4.9

7.1

12.4 d

M2

36.8

13.0

0.0

14.2

10.6

7.2

13.3

8.8

12.0

11.2 d

Foreign-currency deposits

26.7

-7.8

16.9

11.0

14.9

4.6

18.7

17.8

18.4

16.8 d

Ecuador

Monetary base

…

…

…

…

16.4

18.1

24.1

9.9

16.2

22.1 c

Money (M1)

…

…

…

…

44.5

38.0

16.1

15.5

14.0

15.4 c

M2

…

…

…

…

33.0

22.0

18.6

20.0

17.8

13.2 c

El Salvador

Monetary base

5.4

-4.4

7.1

13.9

8.1

10.8

0.4

-1.3

1.8

4.0 d

Money (M1)

11.0

9.7

12.6

12.2

8.5

7.6

19.8

10.4

4.4

2.1 d

M2

2.6

3.1

9.1

15.0

6.1

0.9

1.6

-2.1

0.5

1.8 d

Guatemala

Monetary base

8.1

12.3

18.9

17.3

4.1

6.6

8.0

10.1

5.8

10.5 d

Money (M1)

10.4

15.1

17.9

17.6

3.4

7.6

7.2

9.1

5.8

7.7 d

M2

8.6

13.5

19.9

11.7

7.3

9.4

8.4

10.6

9.4

10.0 d

Foreign-currency deposits

298.7

6.8

6.1

4.2

9.9

18.1

11.6

4.9

3.2

10.9 d

Haiti

Monetary base

20.2

10.9

12.4

11.3

16.1

14.2

34.1

18.1

9.2

4.3 c

Money (M1)

12.5

15.2

8.8

3.5

21.4

9.2

26.9

14.4

8.7

15.2 c

M2

15.5

11.1

9.6

5.3

13.7

6.9

17.4

11.5

5.7

10.9 c

Foreign-currency deposits

13.8

17.6

15.9

3.2

22.1

14.4

22.5

18.4

6.9

9.1 c

Honduras

Monetary base

19.0

21.0

14.9

31.3

24.8

11.6

-13.8

10.7

11.3

2.3 d

Money (M1)

13.8

14.6

22.0

18.4

11.5

2.2

5.2

17.7

2.1

-7.3 d

M2

13.6

17.1

26.5

19.4

9.2

0.8

4.7

17.1

8.5

2.6 d

Foreign-currency deposits

15.8

20.5

12.7

10.5

20.3

-1.0

5.4

7.8

15.3

14.0 d

Mexico

Monetary base

14.0

12.1

16.5

12.6

12.6

15.9

9.7

9.5

13.9

5.9

Money (M1)

12.3

12.9

35.9

11.6

8.5

11.8

11.2

16.2

13.7

7.1 d

M2

6.9

11.6

19.8

7.5

13.9

11.5

5.8

12.4

10.7

6.8 d

Foreign-currency deposits

13.5

10.9

24.9

-6.4

2.8

20.7

0.9

3.0

16.8

12.9 d

Nicaragua

Monetary base

25.7

21.3

25.5

18.3

15.2

0.7

24.0

20.5

18.3

6.8 d

Money (M1)

25.5

23.3

18.8

18.2

32.9

4.4

21.4

24.8

17.6

6.8 b

M2

25.5

23.3

18.8

18.2

32.9

4.4

21.4

24.8

17.6

6.8 b

Foreign-currency deposits

13.5

12.5

10.5

8.0

10.2

5.3

25.8

7.8

21.2

13.2 b

Panama

Monetary base

10.4

12.7

7.5

9.6

17.7

11.2

7.5

27.1

12.7

21.4 d

Money (M1)

15.2

9.5

24.5

29.2

26.5

17.4

19.2

21.5

17.1

10.2 d

M2

8.0

5.5

14.8

22.4

17.1

9.2

11.3

9.9

10.8

9.7 d

Paraguay

Monetary base

35.0

2.3

8.7

31.2

27.6

30.7

5.2

5.0

11.8

6.2 d

Money (M1)

28.9

22.2

16.5

34.4

30.5

6.6

28.7

7.8

8.6

16.5 d

M2

23.5

20.8

12.9

34.2

38.4

13.3

26.4

14.0

13.7

18.2 d

Foreign-currency deposits

-0.7

0.1

0.9

9.3

21.1

40.1

16.4

13.5

14.9

13.5 d

Peru

Monetary base

19.6

27.8

17.1

25.2

38.2

2.1

24.2

31.3

31.2

25.5

Money (M1)

22.9

29.0

17.1

30.6

31.3

8.8

28.0

19.9

18.9

16.4 d

M2

17.1

28.9

7.7

37.7

48.5

-2.2

27.8

18.8

23.6

22.2 d

Foreign-currency deposits

-3.3

2.5

11.4

7.9

11.2

23.1

-0.1

14.1

0.2

9.8 d

Uruguay

Monetary base

3.8

24.6

23.5

28.9

28.6

6.1

12.9

23.1

21.8

14.3

Money (M1)

21.7

23.1

28.5

23.0

22.4

13.1

24.6

19.6

18.4

12.0 d

M2

17.4

19.1

28.8

22.5

26.1

11.3

25.8

26.0

17.4

12.2 d

Foreign-currency deposits

13.5

-15.3

2.9

2.2

4.5

25.7

0.2

7.1

13.5

11.1 d

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

Monetary base

54.0

48.0

61.7

65.5

39.5

18.3

24.5

27.0

40.8

61.3 d

Money (M1)

60.6

50.2

105.5

66.8

24.3

28.8

27.5

44.8

62.0

63.9 d

M2

54.0

52.6

61.9

60.2

16.9

28.3

18.0

37.6

57.5

62.8 d

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

The Caribbean

Antigua and Barbuda

Monetary base

6.8

17.2

4.2

10.0

2.0

-10.5

0.9

20.1

29.4

…

Money (M1)

30.2

28.8

10.8

16.4

6.7

-14.2

-7.3

-6.6

-2.1

-1.8 c

M2

14.7

10.4

7.2

11.3

7.6

-2.9

-3.1

-1.1

1.7

2.2 c

Foreign-currency deposits

14.1

30.4

15.9

32.0

-0.5

39.9

-45.2

5.8

-12.8

-8.2 c

Bahamas

Monetary base

31.9

-8.1

-3.0

17.2

6.4

2.0

2.5

26.8

-7.8

-1.4 e

Money (M1)

24.0

16.0

3.2

1.5

0.3

-0.2

2.8

6.2

8.6

5.6 e

M2

9.2

8.9

7.1

8.5

6.5

2.8

2.8

2.3

1.1

-0.8 e

Foreign-currency deposits

1.7

22.6

13.8

17.7

15.9

8.4

0.1

-2.7

11.6

1.9 e

Barbados

Monetary base

-3.3

-15.8

4.8

26.8

9.2

-13.9

3.4

7.7

-0.9

16.2 d

Money (M1)

23.4

6.0

4.1

11.9

7.7

-5.3

1.7

-0.5

-20.4

-3.1 f

M2

15.5

8.8

11.0

15.8

8.8

-1.1

-1.5

-0.0

-6.7

2.0 f

Belize

Monetary base

3.4

19.3

19.2

15.1

11.5

11.9

-1.2

8.2

17.5

20.5 c

Money (M1)

14.7

7.3

13.0

17.0

9.2

-1.9

-0.9

9.1

24.0

16.9 c

Dominica

Monetary base

12.5

-10.5

9.9

6.5

-0.1

-4.6

9.7

8.5

17.8

…

Money (M1)

30.4

24.7

10.8

10.1

4.4

-1.3

-1.5

-2.1

9.8

6.6 c

M2

14.1

13.4

6.7

10.5

8.2

7.5

3.8

3.2

7.0

5.7 c

Foreign-currency deposits

149.5

-33.2

-32.1

-0.6

19.0

15.9

30.2

38.8

25.4

-3.5 c

Grenada

Monetary base

19.9

0.1

-11.1

9.2

3.5

-8.5

6.0

7.2

4.7

…

Money (M1)

35.0

18.6

-5.8

7.1

3.1

-12.9

3.8

-7.3

2.9

2.1 c

M2

15.4

10.9

-0.9

5.2

8.1

1.0

3.4

0.4

1.8

2.8 c

Foreign-currency deposits

1.5

4.2

-18.7

26.0

2.7

17.4

-3.9

-5.5

5.5

-24.4 c

Guyana

Monetary base

9.1

12.3

4.2

0.8

16.5

10.6

17.7

17.4

15.2

8.9 d

Money (M1)

19.8

10.0

14.2

20.5

18.6

8.2

12.9

21.9

16.1

9.3 d

Jamaica

Monetary base

13.2

9.1

14.2

15.1

9.5

22.8

5.5

5.3

6.3

6.5

Money (M1)

20.6

14.7

17.2

18.8

9.1

7.6

7.0

7.8

4.7

7.3 d

M2

13.7

11.5

11.8

14.3

7.9

4.4

6.1

5.6

3.3

6.9 d

Foreign-currency deposits

21.4

7.3

3.0

18.2

10.9

17.5

-0.9

-4.8

6.8

28.5 d

Saint Kitts and Nevis

Monetary base

5.5

16.1

8.1

15.7

7.3

48.3

-3.2

36.1

13.7

…

Money (M1)

32.4

8.8

6.5

17.4

7.2

9.2

16.8

28.6

18.2

25.8 c

M2

30.7

12.5

6.6

11.9

10.3

10.2

9.4

10.7

8.8

7.7 c

Foreign-currency deposits

27.9

18.8

17.5

16.4

-9.2

-7.0

-9.0

-1.0

6.4

31.8 c

Saint Lucia

Monetary base

8.1

-10.0

7.8

14.4

10.2

8.5

3.6

16.3

4.2

…

Money (M1)

55.5

11.1

9.6

5.0

7.1

-2.4

-4.3

4.0

3.2

6.2 c

M2

14.3

10.9

11.5

11.3

10.7

4.1

0.2

4.9

3.7

5.0 c

Foreign-currency deposits

49.6

54.6

32.5

47.8

8.9

9.3

-13.2

16.4

14.0

-14.6 c

Saint Vincent and the Grenadinas

Monetary base

12.5

-7.7

14.3

4.5

2.0

-3.2

11.9

0.8

11.8

…

Money (M1)

16.5

8.1

12.8

6.8

-1.4

-8.3

-0.5

-3.9

-0.4

8.0 c

M2

14.3

4.1

6.7

9.5

1.9

0.8

2.2

1.9

1.2

9.4 c

Foreign-currency deposits

50.3

32.7

7.4

102.1

1.5

-6.5

-7.7

30.8

-7.3

14.0 c

Suriname

Monetary base

…

…

…

39.7

30.2

22.1

13.0

3.2

27.0

19.4 d

Money (M1)

…

…

…

26.7

21.3

26.3

16.7

5.3

17.0

13.4 d

M2

…

…

…

30.2

21.0

25.1

18.2

7.0

20.0

19.8 d

Foreign-currency deposits

…

…

…

25.7

24.3

12.0

7.9

39.1

13.6

9.2 d

Trinidad and Tabago

Monetary base

-7.8

14.4

41.5

19.0

32.3

37.6

24.7

14.1

15.4

17.6 b

Money (M1)

8.8

24.2

21.7

7.6

17.6

24.0

25.5

17.2

15.4

17.2 b

M2

6.2

23.7

24.7

13.3

17.2

17.6

17.9

8.4

12.0

11.5 b

Foreign-currency deposits

33.1

10.9

11.8

36.4

21.1

32.2

7.9

-4.0

4.7

17.8 b

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Figures as of October.

b Figures as of August.

c Figures as of July.

d Figures as of September.

e Figures as of June.

f Figures as of March.

Statistical annex (23-26)

TABLE A-23

Latin America and the Caribbean: domestic credit

(Percentage variation with respect to the year-earlier period)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

Latin America

Argentina

3.8

-3.1

-6.2

1.7

23.9

2.3

51.3

59.5

33.0

41.3

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

1.9

2.4

-3.2

6.5

7.5

10.9

13.0

18.8

22.7

22.4 b

Brazil

…

…

18.8

20.1

15.8

11.3

18.0

17.6

16.8

12.9

Chile

10.6

12.4

10.5

15.6

18.4

6.6

-0.1

12.1

15.1

9.2 c

Colombia

11.5

11.2

16.1

15.4

15.7

14.4

20.6

15.1

14.6

14.6 d

Costa Rica

20.1

14.4

16.6

22.1

21.1

19.1

4.6

12.4

11.7

7.0 d

Dominican Republic

28.3

6.7

22.4

10.5

17.2

14.4

12.5

12.0

13.1

14.8

Ecuador

8.2

13.6

9.3

18.2

1.7

20.8

33.6

31.5

21.5

16.5

El Salvador

8.7

43.1

8.6

12.4

11.3

2.4

2.2

3.5

9.6

4.6

Guatemala

26.7

11.5

15.5

13.8

10.4

5.2

5.6

15.2

11.3

12.2

Haiti

11.4

8.1

5.3

0.1

7.8

9.7

-22.9

-17.0

11.6

77.9 c

Honduras

11.7

-6.9

34.4

49.0

27.1

6.7

10.0

10.8

18.0

9.7

Mexico

6.9

10.6

13.5

21.6

8.7

16.7

10.6

11.3

10.7

9.2 d

Nicaragua

4.1

7.9

3.8

11.1

10.1

-2.1

-3.9

-7.3

22.7

24.6 d

Panama

8.8

6.1

16.0

10.7

15.9

1.2

9.5

18.8

18.1

17.2

Paraguay e

-4.1

10.0

13.9

25.2

51.5

31.8

36.1

28.2

21.0

12.9

Peru

12.1

6.1

23.2

38.0

9.4

9.9

24.1

12.0

9.5

6.5

Uruguay

-24.3

-27.2

3.9

8.9

3.2

-2.6

13.9

39.9

12.6

5.2

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) f

62.8

59.3

82.7

51.6

22.0

28.4

13.7

36.0

56.1

58.8 c

The Caribbean

Antigua and Barbuda

-0.5

2.6

9.3

17.3

12.5

19.9

0.6

-3.9

-3.4

-6.8 c

Bahamas

5.1

12.9

14.3

4.8

7.5

5.3

3.4

0.8

4.0

1.7

Barbados

12.0

20.4

10.7

8.2

10.1

6.4

-0.5

-0.9

6.6

11.3 b

Belize

16.1

4.9

15.9

13.6

9.3

5.6

-0.3

-1.6

0.6

-0.8 c

Dominica

…

0.3

3.7

-9.3

5.0

8.5

12.5

13.7

7.6

7.1 c

Grenada

…

-3.1

12.5

15.4

13.1

8.9

3.9

2.6

5.0

1.3 c

Guyana

20.5

24.1

-6.7

28.9

15.8

4.5

-0.8

34.5

40.1

24.2

Jamaica

12.1

7.7

-1.5

12.4

16.3

15.0

-3.4

-4.1

11.7

17.7 d

Saint Kitts and Nevis

…

21.3

16.7

9.9

3.0

6.2

6.3

0.2

-9.0

-23.4 c

Saint Lucia

…

15.0

23.5

29.6

21.1

4.6

-0.3

2.9

6.6

7.2 c

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

…

2.4

11.9

16.5

9.5

7.1

1.5

-7.2

-1.0

8.1 c

Suriname

…

…

…

20.7

18.5

16.9

21.4

20.8

8.4

21.4

Trinidad and Tobago

-3.3

-5.3

-40.0

90.1

6.5

35.5

36.6

9.3

7.9

-12.1 d

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Figures as of September.

b Figures as of March.

c Figures as of July.

d Figures as of August.

e Credit granted to the private sector by the banking sector.

f Credit granted by the commercial and universal banks.

TABLE A-24

Latin America and the Caribbean: monetary policy rates

(Average rates)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

Latin America

Argentina

1.5

6.0

7.3

9.1

11.3

14.0

12.3

11.8

12.8

14.4

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

7.0

5.6

5.3

6.0

9.0

7.0

3.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

Brazil

16.4

19.1

15.4

12.0

12.4

10.1

9.9

11.8

8.6

8.0

Chile

1.9

3.5

5.0

5.3

7.2

1.8

1.5

4.8

5.0

5.0

Colombia

6.8

6.3

6.6

8.8

9.8

5.8

3.2

4.0

5.0

3.5

Costa Rica

…

…

8.0

6.0

8.0

9.6

8.1

5.6

5.0

4.6

Dominican Republic

25.0

7.6

9.2

7.3

9.0

5.1

4.2

6.4

5.9

5.0

El Salvador

2.3

3.0

4.4

4.6

3.9

1.8

1.3

1.8

1.6

1.3

Guatemala

0.0

3.3

4.7

5.5

6.9

5.5

4.5

4.9

5.3

5.2

Haiti

13.0

12.7

18.2

11.6

6.9

6.2

5.0

3.2

3.0

3.0

Honduras

…

6.9

6.4

6.3

8.4

4.9

4.5

4.8

6.6

7.0

Mexico

6.8

9.2

7.2

7.2

7.8

5.7

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.1

Nicaragua

…

…

…

8.3

8.9

7.4

2.1

1.0

0.9

1.6 b

Paraguay

6.6

4.8

9.7

6.0

5.9

2.1

2.2

7.9

6.0

5.5

Peru

2.7

3.0

4.3

4.7

5.9

3.3

2.1

4.0

4.3

4.3

Uruguay

…

…

…

6.6

7.4

8.5

6.3

7.5

8.8

9.3 b

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

…

…

9.8

9.8

12.3

8.1

6.3

6.4

6.4

6.2 c

The Caribbean

Antigua and Barbuda

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

Bahamas

5.8

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

4.8

4.5

4.5

Barbados

7.5

8.8

11.7

12.0

11.8

7.9

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0 d

Belize

16.8

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

11.0

11.0

11.0 d

Dominica

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

Grenada

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

Guyana

5.8

6.0

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.9

6.4

5.4

5.4

5.1

Jamaica

14.2

12.8

12.3

11.7

14.1

14.8

9.0

6.6

6.3

5.9 e

Saint Kitts and Nevis

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

Saint Lucia

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

Trinidad and Tobago

5.0

5.5

7.3

8.0

8.4

7.5

4.7

3.2

2.9

2.8

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Figures as of October.

b Figures as of June.

c Figures as of September.

d Figures as of August.

e Figures as of July.

TABLE A-25

Latin America and the Caribbean: representative lending rates

(Average rates)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

Latin America

Argentina b

10.8

10.5

12.9

14.0

19.8

21.3

15.2

17.7

19.3

21.1

Bolivia (Plurinational State of) c

17.2

12.1

8.8

8.3

8.9

8.5

5.2

6.3

6.7

6.9

Brazil d

73.5

69.4

62.3

51.0

54.1

47.5

42.9

44.9

39.9

38.6

Chile e

11.0

13.5

14.4

13.6

15.2

12.9

11.8

12.4

13.5

13.4

Colombia f

15.1

14.6

12.9

15.4

17.2

13.0

9.4

11.2

12.6

11.1 g

Costa Rica h

23.4

24.0

22.7

17.3

16.7

21.6

19.8

18.1

19.7

17.6

Dominican Republic i

30.3

21.4

15.7

11.7

16.0

12.9

8.3

11.7

12.2

10.7

Ecuador j

10.2

8.7

8.9

10.1

9.8

9.2

9.0

8.3

8.2

8.2

El Salvador k

6.3

6.9

7.5

7.8

7.9

9.3

7.6

6.0

5.6

5.7

Guatemala l

13.8

13.0

12.8

12.8

13.4

13.8

13.3

13.4

13.5

13.6

Haiti m

34.1

27.1

29.5

31.2

21.3

21.6

20.7

19.8

19.4

19.0 g

Honduras n

19.9

18.8

17.4

16.6

17.9

19.4

18.9

18.6

18.4

20.0

Mexico o

7.4

9.7

7.5

7.6

8.7

7.1

5.3

4.9

4.7

4.4

Nicaragua p

13.5

12.1

11.6

13.0

13.2

14.0

13.3

10.8

12.0

15.2

Panama q

8.2

8.2

8.1

8.3

8.2

8.3

7.9

7.3

7.0

7.3

Paraguay r

21.0

15.5

15.7

12.8

13.5

14.6

12.5

16.9

16.6

16.9 g

Peru s

24.7

25.5

23.9

22.9

23.7

21.0

19.0

18.7

19.2

18.5

Uruguay t

26.0

15.3

10.7

10.0

13.1

16.6

12.0

11.0

12.0

12.7

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) u

17.3

15.6

14.6

16.7

22.8

20.6

18.0

17.4

16.2

15.6

The Caribbean

Antigua and Barbuda v

11.5

11.2

10.7

10.3

10.1

9.5

10.2

10.1

9.4

9.4 g

Bahamas w

11.2

10.3

10.0

10.6

11.0

10.6

11.0

11.0

10.9

11.1

Barbados v

9.9

10.3

10.7

10.7

10.4

9.8

9.5

9.3

8.6

8.4 g

Belize x

13.9

14.3

14.2

14.3

14.1

14.1

13.9

13.4

12.4

11.7

Dominica v

8.9

9.9

9.5

9.2

9.4

10.0

9.4

8.7

8.9

9.0 g

Grenada v

10.3

10.0

9.8

9.7

9.4

10.7

10.3

10.4

9.5

9.1 g

Guyana s

16.6

15.1

14.9

14.1

13.9

14.0

15.2

14.7

14.0

12.2

Jamaica v

25.1

23.2

22.0

22.0

22.3

22.6

20.3

18.3

17.8

16.6

Saint Kitts and Nevis v

10.0

9.9

9.2

9.3

8.6

8.6

8.5

9.2

8.5

8.3 g

Saint Lucia v

10.7

10.4

10.5

9.7

9.3

9.5

9.5

9.2

8.6

8.4 g

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines v

9.7

9.6

9.7

9.6

9.5

9.1

9.0

9.0

9.3

9.1 g

Suriname y

20.4

18.1

15.6

13.8

12.0

11.7

11.7

11.8

11.7

12.0

Trinidad and Tobago s

9.4

9.1

10.2

10.5

12.3

11.9

9.2

8.0

7.7

7.5

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Figures as of October.

b Local-currency loans to the non-financial private sector, at fixed or renegotiable rates, signature loans of up to 89 days.

c Nominal local-currency rate for 60-91-day operations.

d Interest rate on total consumer credit.

e Non-adjustable 90-360 day operations.

f Weighted average of consumer, prime, ordinary and treasury lending rates for the working days of the month. Owing to the high turnover of treasury credit, its weighting was set at one fifth of the amount disbursed daily.

g Figures as of September.

h Average system lending rate in local currency.

i Prime lending rate.

j Effective benchmark lending rate for the corporate commercial segment.

k Basic lending rate for up to one year.

l Weighted average of the system lending rates in local currency.

m Average of highest and lowest lending rates.

n Weighted average of lending rates.

o Weighted average rate of private debt issues of up to 1 year, expressed as a 28-day curve. Includes only stock certificates.

p Weighted average of short-term lending rates in local currency.

q Interest rate on one-year trade credit.

r Commercial lending rate, local currency.

s Market lending rate, average for transactions conducted in the last 30 business days.

t Business credit, 30-367 days.

u Average rate for loan operations for the six major commercial banks.

v Weighted average of lending rates.

w Weighted average of lending and overdraft rates.

x Rate for personal and business loans, residential and other construction loans; weighted average.

y Average lending rate published by the central bank.

TABLE A-26

Latin America and the Caribbean: consumer prices

(12-month percentage variation)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 a

Latin America and the Caribbean b

7.3

6.1

5.1

6.5

8.1

4.6

6.5

6.8

5.6

7.1

Latin America

Argentina

6.1

12.3

9.8

8.5

7.2

7.7

10.9

9.5

10.8

10.5 c

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

4.6

4.9

4.9

11.7

11.8

0.3

7.2

6.9

4.5

7.5

Brazil

7.6

5.7

3.1

4.5

5.9

4.3

5.9

6.5

5.8

5.8

Chile

2.4

3.7

2.6

7.8

7.1

-1.4

3.0

4.4

1.5

1.5

Colombia

5.5

4.9

4.5

5.7

7.7

2.0

3.2

3.7

2.4

1.8

Costa Rica

13.1

14.1

9.4

10.8

13.9

4.0

5.8

4.7

4.5

4.1

Cuba d

2.9

3.7

5.7

10.6

-0.1

-0.1

1.5

1.3

2.0

0.3 c

Dominican Republic

28.7

7.4

5.0

8.9

4.5

5.7

6.3

7.8

3.9

4.7

Ecuador

1.9

3.1

2.9

3.3

8.8

4.3

3.3

5.4

4.2

2.0

El Salvador

5.4

4.3

4.9

4.9

5.5

-0.2

2.1

5.1

0.8

0.5

Guatemala

9.2

8.6

5.8

8.7

9.4

-0.3

5.4

6.2

3.4

4.2

Haiti

19.1

15.3

10.3

10.0

10.1

2.0

6.2

8.3

7.6

4.2

Honduras

9.2

7.7

5.3

8.9

10.8

3.0

6.5

5.6

5.4

4.6

Mexico

5.2

3.3

4.1

3.8

6.5

3.6

4.4

3.8

3.6

3.4

Nicaragua

8.9

9.7

10.2

16.2

12.7

1.8

9.1

8.6

7.1

6.5

Panama

-0.2

3.4

2.2

6.4

6.8

1.9

4.9

6.3

4.6

3.9

Paraguay

2.8

9.9

12.5

6.0

7.5

1.9

7.2

4.9

4.0

4.4

Peru

3.5

1.5

1.1

3.9

6.7

0.2

2.1

4.7

2.6

3.0

Uruguay

7.6

4.9

6.4

8.5

9.2

5.9

6.9

8.6

7.5

8.7

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

19.2

14.4

17.0

22.5

31.9

26.9

27.4

29.0

19.5

51.7

The Caribbean

Antigua and Barbuda

2.8

2.5

0.0

5.2

0.7

2.4

2.9

4.0

1.8

0.8 e

Bahamas

1.9

1.2

2.3

2.8

4.6

1.3

1.4

3.2

0.7

0.2 c

Barbados

4.3

7.4

5.6

4.7

7.3

4.4

6.5

9.6

2.4

2.7 f

Belize

3.1

4.2

2.9

4.1

4.4

-0.4

0.0

2.6

0.8

0.8 c

Dominica

0.8

2.7

1.8

6.0

2.0

3.2

2.3

1.3

1.9

0.5 e

Grenada

2.5

6.2

1.7

7.4

5.2

-2.3

4.2

3.5

1.8

0.7 e

Guyana

5.5

8.2

4.2

14.1

6.4

3.6

4.5

3.3

3.4

2.9 g

Jamaica

13.6

12.6

5.6

16.8

16.9

10.2

11.8

6.0

8.0

10.3

Saint Kitts and Nevis

1.6

6.2

8.0

2.9

6.5

1.2

5.2

2.9

0.2

0.6 e

Saint Lucia

1.7

3.9

4.8

8.3

8.7

-1.6

0.9

4.7

1.0

2.6 e

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

3.5

5.2

-0.5

6.8

3.4

-3.1

4.2

4.8

5.0

2.6 e

Suriname

…

15.8

4.7

8.3

9.4

1.3

10.3

15.3

4.4

1.2

Trinidad and Tobago

5.6

7.2

9.1

7.6

14.5

1.3

13.4

5.3

7.2

2.7

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Twelve-month variation to October 2013.

b The only English-speaking Caribbean countries included are Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago.

c Twelve-month variation to September 2013.

d Refers to national-currency markets.

e Twelve-month variation to June 2013.

f Twelve-month variation to July 2013.

g Twelve-month variation to March 2013.

Statistical annex (27-31)

TABLE A-27

Latin America and the Caribbean: central government primary and overall balances

(Percentages of GDP)

Primary balance

Overall balance

2010

2011

2012

2013

2010

2011

2012

2013

Latin America and the Caribbean a

-0.2

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

-2.6

-2.5

-2.6

-2.5

Latin America b

-0.2

0.1

-0.4

-0.6

-1.8

-1.6

-2.1

-2.4

Argentina

1.5

-0.1

-0.1

-0.0

-0.1

-2.3

-2.3

-1.7

Bolivia (Plurinational State of) c

1.4

-0.2

2.7

0.9

-0.1

-1.1

1.8

0.4

Brazil

2.1

2.3

2.0

2.2

-1.7

-2.6

-2.0

-2.0

Chile

0.1

1.8

1.1

-0.4

-0.4

1.3

0.6

-1.0

Colombia

-1.2

-0.3

0.1

0.4

-3.9

-2.8

-2.3

-2.2

Costa Rica

-3.1

-1.9

-2.3

-2.7

-5.2

-4.1

-4.4

-5.0

Cuba

-2.2

…

…

…

-3.6

-1.8

-4.3

1.2

Dominican Republic

-0.7

-0.1

-2.9

-0.2

-2.7

-2.2

-5.4

-2.8

Ecuador

-0.9

-0.7

-1.0

-3.8

-1.7

-1.6

-2.0

-5.1

El Salvador

-0.4

-0.1

0.5

0.2

-2.7

-2.3

-1.7

-2.2

Guatemala

-1.8

-1.3

-0.9

-0.9

-3.3

-2.8

-2.4

-2.5

Haiti

1.8

2.5

-0.5

-0.5

1.3

2.1

-0.8

-0.8

Honduras

-3.7

-3.2

-4.3

-4.3

-4.7

-4.6

-6.0

-6.0

Mexico d

-1.0

-0.7

-0.7

-0.4

-2.8

-2.4

-2.6

-2.4

Nicaragua

0.3

1.5

1.5

1.6

-0.7

0.5

0.5

0.5

Panama

0.1

-1.2

-1.5

-2.1

-2.5

-3.5

-3.5

-4.4

Paraguay

1.6

1.0

-1.6

-2.0

1.2

0.7

-1.8

-2.3

Peru

1.2

2.0

2.2

1.0

0.1

1.0

1.2

0.0

Uruguay

1.3

1.9

0.4

0.7

-1.2

-0.6

-2.0

-1.8

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

-2.1

-1.8

-2.2

-0.3

-3.6

-4.0

-4.9

-3.4

The Caribbean e

0.0

-0.3

0.2

0.5

-3.6

-3.7

-3.1

-3.0

Antigua and Barbuda

1.0

-2.7

1.1

1.9

-1.4

-5.3

-1.4

-1.8

Bahamas f

-2.0

-3.4

-4.2

-2.5

-4.7

-5.7

-6.7

-5.2

Barbados g h

-1.8

-1.3

0.5

1.0

-7.7

-7.4

-5.6

-5.3

Belize g

1.8

2.5

1.7

1.0

-1.7

-0.9

-0.2

-1.9

Dominica

-4.7

-6.7

-8.4

-6.7

-6.4

-8.6

-9.8

-8.3

Grenada

-0.4

-0.7

-2.1

…

-2.4

-3.2

-5.5

…

Guyana

-1.2

-1.6

-3.8

-3.5

-2.9

-3.1

-4.9

-4.6

Jamaica g

4.7

3.2

5.3

7.5

-6.4

-6.5

-4.0

-0.5

Saint Kitts and Nevis

2.7

8.9

17.2

17.2

-4.3

2.5

11.2

…

Saint Lucia

2.2

-1.9

-3.3

-3.6

-0.6

-4.9

-7.1

-7.4

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

-0.0

-0.2

0.3

0.3

-2.9

-2.7

-2.1

…

Suriname

-2.0

0.9

-1.6

-2.1

-2.9

-0.1

-2.5

-3.0

Trinidad and Tobago i

0.3

-0.7

-0.4

-2.2

-2.2

-2.7

-2.3

-4.1

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Simple averages of the figures for 33 countries.

b Simple averages. Does not include Cuba.

c General government.

d Public sector.

e Simple averages.

f Fiscal years, from 1 July to 30 June.

g Fiscal years, from 1 April to 31 March.

h Non-financial public sector.

i Fiscal years, from 1 October to 30 September.

TABLE A-28

Latin America and the Caribbean: central government tax revenues composition

(Percentages of GDP)

Total revenue

Tax revenue

2010

2011

2012

2013

2010

2011

2012

2013

Latin America and the Caribbean a

22.4

22.9

22.8

23.6

17.4

17.9

17.9

18.5

Latin America b

18.7

19.1

19.5

20.0

14.4

14.9

15.4

15.8

Argentina

22.7

22.1

23.7

25.6

19.8

20.3

21.7

22.8

Bolivia (Plurinational State of) c

30.8

32.8

35.1

39.5

18.0

20.0

20.9

22.5

Brazil

24.3

23.8

24.3

24.5

24.3

23.8

24.1

…

Chile

21.5

22.7

21.9

20.7

17.2

18.7

18.8

17.9

Colombia

13.8

15.2

16.1

16.5

12.3

13.5

14.3

14.1

Costa Rica

14.3

14.6

14.4

14.2

13.3

13.7

13.6

13.2

Cuba

45.4

46.7

39.0

42.8

17.8

24.0

15.6

21.9

Dominican Republic

13.6

13.5

14.0

15.3

12.8

12.9

13.5

14.1

Ecuador

22.3

22.4

23.2

23.9

13.0

12.7

14.6

16.4

El Salvador

15.0

15.4

15.7

…

13.5

13.8

14.4

…

Guatemala

11.2

11.6

11.7

12.7

10.8

11.2

11.2

12.2

Haiti

15.7

14.7

15.5

15.7

11.9

13.1

13.9

14.5

Honduras

16.9

17.0

16.6

…

14.4

14.8

14.7

…

Mexico d

22.3

22.5

22.6

21.6

9.5

8.9

8.4

9.5

Nicaragua

16.6

17.4

17.7

18.4

14.0

14.7

15.0

15.9

Panama

18.5

17.8

17.7

17.7

11.4

11.3

12.1

12.2

Paraguay

17.1

18.0

19.0

19.0

13.2

13.8

14.3

…

Peru

17.0

17.8

18.1

18.0

14.5

15.2

15.6

15.4

Uruguay

21.5

21.2

20.5

21.5

18.7

18.9

18.5

19.0

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

19.3

22.5

23.5

23.6

11.1

12.5

13.2

12.7

The Caribbean e

26.2

26.7

26.4

27.4

21.8

21.9

21.8

22.0

Antigua and Barbuda

22.4

20.4

20.1

22.8

18.8

18.1

18.7

20.1

Bahamas f

18.2

18.4

18.8

17.8

16.4

16.2

17.3

15.8

Barbados g h

26.9

28.1

26.7

28.0

25.8

26.6

25.3

…

Belize g

27.8

28.3

26.9

26.6

23.6

22.5

22.6

22.2

Dominica

30.6

29.4

26.3

27.7

25.6

23.5

22.6

…

Grenada

22.4

23.1

20.7

…

18.7

19.2

18.6

…

Guyana

26.0

25.6

24.5

27.9

21.9

21.2

20.3

…

Jamaica g

27.3

26.0

25.5

27.3

24.3

23.4

23.7

24.2

Saint Kitts and Nevis

30.7

37.0

42.6

…

18.3

20.8

20.2

…

Saint Lucia

26.2

26.1

26.2

27.9

22.5

23.4

23.1

21.9

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

27.1

27.8

26.9

…

22.9

22.5

23.0

…

Suriname

21.7

25.1

25.6

…

15.7

19.0

19.2

…

Trinidad and Tobago i

33.4

31.6

32.1

33.8

28.2

27.9

28.4

28.8

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Simple averages of the figures for 33 countries.

b Simple averages. Does not include Cuba.

c General government.

d Public sector.

e Simple averages.

f Fiscal years, from 1 July to 30 June.

g Fiscal years, from 1 April to 31 March.

h Non-financial public sector.

i Fiscal years, from 1 October to 30 September. Corresponds to the non-petroleum sector.

TABLE A-29

Latin America and the Caribbean: central government expenditure composition

(Percentages of GDP)

Total expenditure

Interest payments on public debt

Capital expenditure

2010

2011

2012

2013

2010

2011

2012

2013

2010

2011

2012

2013

Latin America and the Caribbean a

25.0

25.4

25.4

26.1

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.4

4.8

4.9

5.0

5.2

Latin America b

20.5

20.8

21.6

22.4

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.8

4.4

4.5

4.9

5.1

Argentina

22.8

24.5

26.0

27.3

1.6

2.2

2.2

1.7

3.1

3.0

2.7

3.3

Bolivia (Plurinational State of) c

30.9

33.9

33.3

39.1

1.5

1.0

0.9

0.5

9.9

12.1

10.8

14.7

Brazil

26.0

26.4

26.3

26.4

3.8

4.9

4.0

3.5

5.9

4.8

5.2

5.1

Chile

21.9

21.4

21.4

21.7

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

3.9

4.1

4.0

3.9

Colombia

17.6

18.0

18.4

18.7

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.6

2.1

2.4

2.8

2.8

Costa Rica

19.5

18.7

18.8

19.3

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.4

2.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

Cuba

49.0

48.4

43.2

41.6

1.3

…

…

…

6.1

5.7

5.8

5.3

Dominican Republic

16.3

15.7

19.3

18.1

2.0

2.1

2.4

2.6

3.7

3.2

5.8

3.7

Ecuador

24.0

24.0

25.3

29.1

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.4

9.5

10.5

11.0

11.5

El Salvador

17.7

17.6

17.5

…

2.3

2.2

2.2

...

3.2

3.1

3.3

…

Guatemala

14.5

14.4

14.1

15.2

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

4.1

4.0

3.3

3.5

Haiti

14.4

12.5

16.4

16.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3

3.7

2.3

5.2

5.0

Honduras

21.5

21.6

22.6

…

1.0

1.3

1.7

...

3.7

4.6

4.6

…

Mexico d

25.1

25.0

25.2

24.0

1.8

1.8

1.9

2.0

5.0

4.8

4.8

4.4

Nicaragua

17.3

17.0

17.2

17.9

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.1

3.9

3.8

4.1

4.7

Panama

21.0

21.3

21.2

22.2

2.6

2.3

2.0

2.3

7.3

8.0

8.8

9.4

Paraguay

15.9

17.3

20.8

21.3

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.3

3.4

4.0

4.8

6.0

Peru

16.9

16.8

16.9

18.0

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

4.3

4.1

4.2

4.5

Uruguay

22.7

21.8

22.5

23.2

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.5

1.7

1.5

1.5

1.6

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

22.9

26.4

28.4

26.9

1.5

2.1

2.7

3.0

2.9

3.1

4.8

4.6

The Caribbean e

29.8

30.4

29.5

30.3

3.6

3.5

3.3

3.4

5.2

5.4

5.0

5.3

Antigua and Barbuda

23.8

25.7

21.5

24.7

2.4

2.5

2.5

3.7

1.7

2.2

0.6

1.0

Bahamas f

22.9

24.1

25.6

23.0

2.7

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.6

3.1

4.4

2.8

Barbados g h

34.6

35.6

32.2

33.3

5.9

6.1

6.1

6.3

1.4

1.1

0.9

1.7

Belize g

29.5

29.2

27.1

28.5

3.5

3.4

1.9

2.9

5.1

4.8

4.7

4.8

Dominica

36.9

38.0

36.1

36.0

1.6

1.9

1.5

1.6

12.3

13.3

12.7

12.2

Grenada

24.8

26.3

26.2

…

2.1

2.5

3.4

…

5.2

6.3

5.0

…

Guyana

28.9

28.7

29.4

32.5

1.7

1.5

1.1

1.1

10.1

9.5

9.7

13.6

Jamaica g

33.7

32.5

29.5

27.8

11.1

9.7

9.4

8.0

4.8

4.3

2.8

3.0

Saint Kitts and Nevis

35.0

34.5

31.3

…

7.0

6.4

5.9

5.6

6.6

4.3

3.7

…

Saint Lucia

26.8

31.0

33.3

35.3

2.9

3.1

3.8

3.8

4.5

8.2

7.6

8.3

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

30.0

30.5

29.0

…

2.8

2.5

2.4

2.4

4.3

3.4

2.9

…

Suriname

24.6

25.2

28.1

…

0.9

1.0

0.9

0.9

4.6

5.0

4.6

…

Trinidad and Tobago i

35.6

34.2

34.4

38.0

2.5

1.9

1.9

2.0

4.9

5.0

5.0

5.7

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Simple averages of the figures for 33 countries.

b Simple averages. Does not include Cuba.

c General government.

d Public sector.

e Simple averages.

f Fiscal years, from 1 July to 30 June.

g Fiscal years, from 1 April to 31 March.

h Non-financial public sector.

i Fiscal years, from 1 October to 30 September.

TABLE A-30

Latin America and the Caribbean: non-financial public sector gross public debt

(Percentages of GDP)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Latin America and the Caribbean a

70.1

63.3

54.2

47.8

47.0

50.4

50.3

49.7

51.2

50.7

Latin America a

54.9

46.3

38.8

33.4

32.4

33.6

32.4

32.3

33.6

33.7

Argentina

143.3

87.6

76.3

66.7

57.8

53.6

45.3

42.4

44.9

43.6

Bolivia (Plurinational State of) b

83.9

78.1

52.4

40.0

36.8

39.5

38.1

34.5

32.9

31.2

Brazil c

68.6

67.7

56.4

58.0

57.4

60.9

53.4

54.2

59.3

58.8

Chile

16.0

12.3

10.0

8.7

11.4

12.1

14.7

17.8

18.8

19.1

Colombia

51.6

50.1

47.4

43.8

42.7

45.1

46.2

42.9

38.8

38.8

Costa Rica

46.9

42.9

38.4

31.8

29.9

34.0

35.7

38.3

42.7

…

Dominican Republic d

…

22.0

20.2

18.3

24.7

28.2

29.2

30.1

33.3

36.0

Ecuador

39.0

34.6

28.5

26.9

22.0

16.3

19.6

18.9

22.1

23.6

El Salvador

40.5

39.7

39.9

37.0

36.9

45.2

45.1

44.1

47.8

45.0

Guatemala

22.4

21.5

21.9

21.6

20.4

23.3

24.4

23.9

24.6

24.2

Haiti e

51.1

47.5

38.7

35.9

44.5

35.1

23.2

24.4

28.2

…

Honduras d

59.6

44.7

28.7

17.4

20.1

23.9

29.2

31.4

33.2

38.3

Mexico f

23.9

22.4

22.2

22.5

26.7

34.3

33.5

34.9

35.2

35.0

Nicaragua

77.6

71.5

53.9

33.1

30.3

34.2

34.8

33.1

32.1

31.7

Panama

70.4

66.2

61.0

52.9

45.4

45.4

43.0

40.9

38.9

38.2

Paraguay g

37.3

31.2

24.0

19.6

17.5

16.8

14.6

12.7

14.7

14.4

Peru

41.8

38.2

31.3

27.2

24.4

23.7

21.6

19.2

17.8

15.8

Uruguay

75.5

67.4

61.8

53.3

52.4

49.4

43.5

44.2

44.7

44.9

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) d

38.8

33.1

24.0

19.1

14.0

18.2

20.2

25.1

27.5

30.9

The Caribbean a

91.3

88.2

76.6

69.0

68.3

75.0

76.4

75.3

77.1

75.6

Antigua and Barbuda

139.6

101.8

90.5

81.1

81.5

95.7

87.1

86.7

89.4

88.4

Bahamas h

35.8

35.5

36.2

36.9

37.4

44.1

45.7

50.2

54.5

56.4

Barbados i

47.6

49.5

50.7

51.7

55.7

66.0

75.1

80.3

87.3

90.4

Belize i

99.7

99.5

92.5

83.6

79.4

82.2

72.3

70.7

72.8

71.3

Dominica

87.4

95.7

89.4

81.2

72.0

66.4

73.1

70.7

72.7

71.4

Grenada

95.3

83.8

87.5

82.9

79.1

90.0

91.8

86.8

88.6

…

Guyana

172.3

183.9

93.1

60.0

61.6

60.5

61.2

65.2

62.0

60.5

Jamaica i

122.0

121.1

117.7

113.0

120.3

134.4

136.1

131.5

134.1

126.7

Saint Kitts and Nevis

157.0

160.6

149.5

134.6

127.6

142.0

151.4

141.1

129.3

110.0

Saint Lucia

68.4

68.2

65.3

64.7

61.9

64.0

65.5

66.3

71.0

76.5

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

67.7

65.9

62.3

55.5

58.4

64.7

66.7

65.5

67.0

64.9

Suriname

51.4

44.0

29.2

23.0

27.9

27.6

27.5

27.6

28.6

33.1

Trinidad and Tobago j

42.0

36.8

32.1

28.8

24.7

37.5

39.7

36.0

45.0

44.7

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Simple averages.

b Refers to the external debt of the non-financial public-sector and central-government domestic debt.

c General government.

d Central government.

e Does not include public sector commitments to commercial banks.

f Federal public sector.

g Domestic debt includes commitments to the central bank only.

h Fiscal years, from 1 July to 30 June.

i Fiscal years, from 1 April to 31 March.

j Fiscal years, from 1 October to 30 September.

TABLE A-31

Latin America and the Caribbean: central government gross public debt

(Percentages of GDP)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Latin America a

51.2

43.2

36.1

30.7

29.7

30.9

30.1

30.1

31.0

31.4

Argentina

126.4

72.8

63.6

55.7

48.5

48.5

45.1

41.6

44.7

…

Bolivia (Plurinational State of) b

81.1

75.4

49.6

37.1

34.0

36.3

34.5

34.4

29.1

27.6

Brazil

68.6

67.7

56.4

58.0

57.4

60.9

53.4

54.2

59.3

58.8

Chile

10.2

6.9

5.0

3.9

4.9

5.8

8.6

11.1

11.9

12.0

Colombia

38.9

39.1

37.5

32.9

33.3

35.0

34.9

33.4

32.7

33.0

Costa Rica

41.0

37.5

33.3

27.6

24.9

27.4

29.2

30.8

35.3

37.0

Dominican Republic

…

22.0

20.2

18.3

24.7

28.2

29.2

30.1

33.3

36.0

Ecuador

36.4

32.2

26.3

24.7

20.1

15.2

19.7

18.9

17.8

19.2

El Salvador

38.1

37.5

37.7

34.9

34.4

42.6

42.6

41.7

45.6

43.0

Guatemala

21.4

20.8

21.7

21.3

20.1

22.9

24.1

23.7

24.4

23.5

Haiti c

46.7

44.1

36.2

33.6

42.3

34.4

23.1

24.3

28.2

…

Honduras

59.6

44.7

28.7

17.4

20.1

23.9

29.2

31.4

33.2

38.3

Mexico d

20.4

19.9

20.2

20.7

24.2

27.7

27.1

27.9

28.5

28.6

Nicaragua

77.5

71.4

53.6

32.4

29.5

33.2

34.0

32.3

31.4

31.1

Panama

69.6

65.1

60.3

52.3

44.8

44.7

42.3

40.3

38.4

37.7

Paraguay

35.1

29.4

22.6

16.5

14.5

14.4

13.9

12.1

13.0

13.1

Peru

40.1

36.9

30.1

26.2

24.1

23.4

21.3

19.0

17.7

14.9

Uruguay

71.4

64.2

58.5

50.0

49.0

45.1

39.9

40.2

37.1

39.4

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

38.8

33.1

24.0

19.1

14.0

18.2

20.2

25.1

27.5

30.9

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Simple averages.

b General government.

c Does not include public sector commitments to commercial banks.

d Federal government.

Table of Contents

Maintitle

Copyrights

Contents

Executive summary

Chapter I

Chapter II

Chapter III

Chapter IV

Chapter V

Chapter VI

Statistical annex (1-4)

Statistical annex (5)

Statistical annex (6-7)

Statistical annex (8-14)

Statistical annex (15-20)

Statistical annex (21-22)

Statistical annex (23-26)

Statistical annex (27-31)