Maintitle

Copyright

Alicia Bárcena

Executive Secretary

Antonio Prado

Deputy Executive Secretary

Daniel Titelman

Chief, Economic Development Division

Ricardo Pérez

Chief, Publications and Web Services Division

The Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean is an annual publication prepared by the Economic Development Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). This 2014 edition was prepared under the supervision of Daniel Titelman, Chief of the Division, while Jürgen Weller, Senior Economic Affairs Officer in the same Division, was responsible for the overall coordination.

In the preparation of this edition, the Economic Development Division was assisted by the Statistics Division, the ECLAC subregional headquarters in Mexico City and Port of Spain, and the Commission’s country offices in Bogota, Brasilia, Buenos Aires, Montevideo and Washington, D.C.

The regional analyses were prepared by Daniel Titelman with input from the following experts: Luis Felipe Jiménez, Alexander Loschky, José Luis Germán and Pablo Carvallo (external sector); Ricardo Martner, Juan Pablo Jiménez, Michael Hanni and Ivonne González (fiscal policy); Ramón Pineda, Rodrigo Cárcamo, Yusuke Tateno and Alejandra Acevedo (monetary, exchange-rate and macroprudential policies); Sandra Manuelito (activity and prices); Seung-jin Baek (prices), and Jürgen Weller (employment and wages). The economic projections were produced by Sandra Manuelito, Alexander Loschky and Claudio Aravena with input from the national offices and subregional headquarters. Alda Díaz was responsible for the processing and presentation of the statistical data and graphical presentations.

The country notes are based on studies conducted by the following experts: Anahí Amar and Daniel Vega (Argentina), Michael Hendrickson (Bahamas and Belize), Willard Phillips (Barbados), Alexander Loschky (Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela), Carlos Mussi (Brazil), Luis Felipe Jiménez (Chile), Olga Lucía Acosta, Juan Carlos Ramírez and Luis Javier Uribe (Colombia), Rodolfo Minzer (Costa Rica and Panama), Indira Romero (Cuba), Willy Zapata (Dominican Republic and Nicaragua), Sandra Manuelito (Ecuador), Francisco Villarreal (El Salvador), Stefanie Garry (Guatemala), Michael Milligan (Guyana), Randolph Gilbert (Haiti), Cameron Daneshvar (Honduras), Dillon Alleyne (Jamaica and Suriname), Ramón Padilla (Mexico), Sonia Gontero (Paraguay), Rodrigo Cárcamo (Peru), Michael Hanni (Plurinational State of Bolivia), Machel Pantin (Trinidad and Tobago), Sheldon McLean (Eastern Caribbean Monetary Union), Verónica Amarante and Álvaro Lalanne (Uruguay). Seung-jin Baek, José Luis Germán and Yusuke Tateno reviewed the notes for the Caribbean countries

.

The country notes are available on line at www.eclac.org.

The cut-off date for the information presented in this publication was 25 November 2014.

Notes

- The following symbols have been used in the tables shown in the Preliminary Overview:

- Three dots (…) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported.

- A dash (-) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible.

- A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals.

- The word “dollars” refers to United States dollars unless otherwise specified.

United Nations publication

ISBN: 978-92-1-121878-7 (print and pdf)

ISBN: 978-92-1-057092-3 (ePub)

ISSN printed version: 1014-7802

ISSN electronic version: 1684-1417

LC/G.2632-P

Sales No.: E.15.II.G.2

Copyright © United Nations, 2014

All rights reserved.

Printed at United Nations, Santiago, Chile

This publication should be cited as: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2014, (LC/G.2632-P), Santiago, Chile, 2014.

Applications for authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part should be sent to the Secretary of the Publications Board, United Nations Headquarters, New York, N.Y. 10017, United States of America. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and to inform the United Nations of such reproduction.

Contents

Executive summary

Chapter I

Chapter II

Chapter III

Chapter IV

Chapter V

Chapter VI

Chapter VII

Statistical annex

Executive summary

A. The international context

The world economy improved slightly in 2014, amid a mixed performance from developed countries and a slowdown in emerging economies.

Global economic growth increased to 2.6%, compared with 2.4% in 2013. Trends were varied among the developed countries. The United Kingdom stood out with economic growth accelerating to 3.1% in 2014, up from 1.7% the previous year. The United States economy grew by 2.1%, slightly down on the 2013 figure of 2.2%, albeit with a second-half performance that bodes well for greater gains in 2015. Eurozone growth was again limited in 2014, with marked contrasts between Germany and Spain on the one hand (which expanded by 1.5% and 1.3% respectively) and, on the other, France, which posted growth of just 0.3%, and Italy, which went into recession with a downturn of 0.4%. Japan showed signs of recovery in early 2014, but slipped into recession towards the end of the year.

Growth in developing economies continued to slow in 2014, while nevertheless remaining far more buoyant than in the developed world. On average, developing economies grew by an estimated 4.4% in 2014, with China’s growth slowing from 7.7% in 2013 to 7.3% in 2014, and India’s rising to 5.4%, from 4.7% in 2013.

Consistently with these developments, the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean have seen external aggregate demand slump owing to the lacklustre performance of developed economies and the slowing of emerging ones, especially China, which has established itself as the main trading partner for several countries in the region, particularly those that export raw materials.

Raw material prices resumed a downward trend, especially in the second half of 2014, albeit with variation from one commodity to another. The estimated average price fall for the group of raw materials steepened to 10.5% in 2014, from a 5.2% drop in 2013. The price of metals fell by 2.3% in 2014, having tumbled by 16.7% in 2013. Food prices were down by about 6.9%, compared with a 15.5% fall in 2013; while energy prices plunged by some 17%, following a 4.6% climb in 2013.

Liquidity in international financial markets remained relatively high, thanks to the accommodative monetary policy of the main developed economies, as well as low risk perception. Interest rates remained low, while the withdrawal of monetary stimulus measures in the United States did not lead to interest rate increases, but caused some volatility in financial flows during 2014. The European Central Bank launched a programme of quantitative easing, which at present is limited to the purchase of private financial assets on a smaller scale than similar programmes adopted by the United States Federal Reserve and the Central Bank of Japan.

B. Economic activity

The GDP of the Latin American and Caribbean region grew by 1.1% in 2014, its slowest rate of expansion since 2009. Considerable differences were observed between countries, with the sluggish regional rate largely determined by slow or negative growth in some of the largest economies: Argentina (-0.2%), the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (-3.0%), Brazil (0.2%) and Mexico (2.1%). The median GDP growth rate for the region was 2.8%, broadly in line with the 2013 figure.

The region’s fastest-growing economies were the Dominican Republic and Panama (6.0% in both cases), followed by the Plurinational State of Bolivia (5.2%), Colombia (4.8%) and Guyana and Nicaragua (both 4.5%). Argentina, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and Saint Lucia contracted by 0.2%, 3.0% and 1.4%, respectively, while the other economies grew at rates ranging from 0.5% to 4%.

By subregion, South America posted economic expansion of 0.7% (as against 2.8% in 2013), while Central America (including the Spanish-speaking Caribbean and Haiti) expanded by 3.7% (4.0% in 2013). The Mexican economy grew by 2.1% in 2014, compared with 1.1% in 2013. The Caribbean economies likewise saw growth accelerate on previous years, reaching 1.9% in 2014.

The region’s patterns of economic activity varied throughout 2014. The regional economy’s deceleration became more apparent in the second quarter, as investment declined in several South American economies and consumption, especially private consumption, weakened across the board. Growth picked up slightly in the third and fourth quarters, however.

Gross fixed capital formation contracted by almost 3.0% in the region as a whole, although again with differences at the country level. Rates of investment rose by more than 5% in Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, the Plurinational State of Bolivia and several Central American economies, while declining in Argentina, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Brazil and Chile. In Peru, gross fixed investment slowed sharply in comparison with previous years.

The performance of gross fixed capital formation in the region translated into a drop in the investment rate. Measured as a percentage of GDP based on dollars at constant 2010 prices, the regional investment rate dropped to 19.2% of GDP —below the 2010 figure (19.8%)— having hovered at around 20.5% between 2011 and 2013.

C. Employment

One significant consequence of low economic growth was weak job creation, leading to a sharper-than-expected 0.4 percentage point fall in the urban employment rate.

However, despite weak job creation, the urban open unemployment rate edged down from 6.2% to 6.0%. Sluggish economic growth did not trigger a rise in unemployment because the participation rate fell faster than employment (by 0.6 percentage points). Until 2012, declining unemployment reflected a faster rise in employment than in participation, but since 2013 participation has fallen more heavily than employment.

The labour performance of the region’s countries was rather mixed. The regional outcome was determined by similar trends posted in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, while a variety of results were observed in the other countries.

Although job creation has been weak —especially in wage employment— the labour market situation remains relatively benign. The open unemployment rate is at historically low levels, while other positive aspects include a widespread fall in the hourly underemployment rate, as well as real wage increases (measured at 1.3% according the weighted average of 10 countries, or 1.8% by the simple average of those countries).

Nevertheless, slower job creation is affecting women more than men, bringing an end to previous trends in which some gender labour gaps were narrowing.

D. The external sector

In 2014, the region’s current account deficit eased down to 2.3% of GDP (2.6% in 2013), thus ending a four-year run of deficit expansion.

Underlying this performance lie factors that vary by subregion and the destinations of each country’s exports. Mexico and the Central American and Caribbean service-exporting countries benefited from the steady economic recovery in the United States, the main destination for many of their exports. The upturn in the United States’ labour market also underpinned a surge in remittances to Mexico, Central America (except for Costa Rica, where they fell by 1% year-on-year in the first half-year) and the Dominican Republic.

Conversely, South America felt the effects of slack demand for its goods in Europe and China, which resulted in a standstill or a fall in export volumes in Brazil (0.1%), Chile (1.8%) and Peru (-5.0%).

Export volumes fell in Argentina and stagnated in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. At the same time, weak labour market conditions in emigrant destination countries eroded the remittances flowing into several South American countries.

The combination of these factors produced a flat performance in goods and services export values in 2014 (-0.1%), which was little different from 2013 (0.3%).

Import performance, too, was differentiated by subregion. In South America, import volumes dropped sharply on the back of a heavy fall in domestic demand, consumption and investment in most of the countries. In Chile, import volumes plunged 7.8%, with the fall encompassing all durable goods segments, including machinery and equipment. Imports were down, as well (in volume terms), in Brazil (-2.6%) and Peru (-2.0%) as a result of more sluggish spending. The volume of imports also dropped sharply in Argentina (-9.9%) and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (-17.7%). Conversely, in Colombia, Mexico and most of the Central American countries, import volumes continued to rise, albeit more slowly than in the past, in keeping with their economic performance. For Latin America overall, import values were down —by 1.1%— for the first time since the international financial crisis of 2008-2009

Prices for the region’s raw material exports have continued to slide. The terms of trade have accordingly continued to deteriorate, as well, and were down by 2.6% in 2014 for the region overall, although with some differences from one country to another.[1]

External financing has continued to be readily available for the region, whose international reserves thus rose again. Although FDI was down by between 25% and 30% in 2014, reflecting the culmination of mining investment cycles and fewer acquisitions by foreign firms, portfolio investment, especially in the form of external bonds issued by the region, has remained buoyant. These developments have remained within the ranges of recent times, however, and show no sign of the change in external financial conditions that the end of the expansionary monetary cycle in the United States is expected to produce. The shift towards portfolio investment within overall flows could signal future vulnerabilities, however, insofar as these flows are more volatile.

E. Policies

According to projections, Latin America’s fiscal balance has, on average, deteriorated slightly in 2014. The subregion’s primary deficit (before public debt interest payments) is expected to stand at 0.8% of GDP, and the overall central government deficit will widen from 2.4% of GDP in 2013 to 2.7% of GDP in 2014, with a drop in total revenues and a slight upturn in public spending. The subregion as a whole has posted a fiscal deficit since 2009, but this has not pushed up public debt, which has held steady at about 32% of GDP, with an external component of less than 15% of GDP.

The Caribbean should see an improved fiscal position in 2014, with the overall average subregional deficit at the central government level shrinking from 4.1% of GDP in 2013 to 3.9% of GDP in 2014. Jamaica has made a sizeable contribution to that improvement as it brought down its debt by 4 percentage points of GDP within the framework of its fiscal consolidation programme. Nevertheless, the subregion’s debt levels remain high at close to 80% of GDP on average, with a substantial external component.

Beyond the averages, the fiscal situation in Latin America and the Caribbean is diverse and heterogeneous. Despite the wider deficit and slowing economies, public debt has not risen in general. This apparent contradiction is explained by very favourable borrowing conditions in many countries in the region, which have led to improvements in the cost and maturity profile of public debt in recent years.

Total fiscal revenues fell in the oil-exporting countries and tax revenues rose slightly in several of the region’s economies. The sharp fall in international commodity prices dragged down the fiscal revenues of the commodity-exporting countries. Non-tax revenues were down by 1.8 percentage points of GDP in Mexico, and by an average of 0.7 points in the other oil-exporting countries. The metal- and mineral-exporting countries also reported a drop in non-tax revenues (by 0.3 percentage points of GDP).

The performance of tax revenues in the Caribbean diverged by type of exporter: they fell in countries that export non-renewable natural resources but climbed strongly in exporters of services, thanks to the economic upturn. Tax revenues also performed favourably in Mexico and Central America. On average for Latin America, non-tax revenues decreased and tax revenues increased.

Despite the slowdown, the countries of the region were able to maintain public spending and investment as a percentage of GDP. Capital spending also held steady or even increased as a share of GDP in many countries in 2014. It was down in Central America and the Dominican Republic, however, as well as in the oil-exporting countries, which nevertheless —especially in the cases of Ecuador and the Plurinational State of Bolivia and Ecuador— kept up very high levels of public investment. In the Caribbean and in Brazil, the very heavy burden of interest payments is standing in the way of more active fiscal measures.

On the monetary and exchange-rate front, countries in the region adopted a clearly countercyclical approach in 2014, regardless of policy regime. More emphasis was placed on stimulating aggregate demand and setting and monitoring medium-term inflation targets. At the same time, authorities sought to mitigate the effects of external volatility on the region’s financial markets by using international reserves and modifying macroprudential regulations.

Those countercyclical efforts led to a reduction in lending rates in the region’s economies. However, growth in domestic credit to the private sector slowed. In the South American economies that use monetary aggregates as the principal policy instrument and in Brazil, domestic lending to the private sector increased despite high lending rates.

The prevailing conditions in international financial markets heightened exchange-rate volatility in the region and caused the depreciation of currencies under flexible exchange-rate regimes. These exchange-rate developments, together with the pace of inflation in the region’s economies, resulted in an appreciation of the real effective extraregional exchange rate, especially in the economies of South America.

In response to external uncertainty, authorities in the region drew on international reserves and made changes to macroprudential regulations in order to mitigate exchange-rate volatility and reduce the exposure of the region’s financial systems. Notwithstanding these measures, reserves in Latin America and the Caribbean, as a whole, expanded from 14.0% of GDP in 2013 to 14.2% of GDP in 2014.

Average cumulative inflation in the 12 months to October 2014 stood at 9.4%,[2] compared with 7.6% in December 2013. Although most countries in the region recorded higher inflation relative to 2013, there were significant differences between them. The regional average was driven up significantly by the sustained rise in official inflation in Argentina and the high rate of consumer inflation in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.

The rise in regional inflation reflected both the rise in food prices and higher core inflation. Food prices have risen dramatically since May 2014. Meanwhile, core inflation[3] also rose sharply in most countries in the first half of the year. As a regional average, food prices surged by 11.8% in the 12 months to October 2014 (compared with 9.3% in the 12 months to December 2013 and 8.3% in 2012), while core inflation was up by 9.1% in the 12 months to October 2014 (compared with 7.0% in the 12 months to December 2013).

F. Outlook for 2015 and challenges

In 2015 the global economy is expected to continue expanding at a moderate rate of about 3.1%. As in 2014, the pace of growth in the developed countries will be mixed. China’s 2015 growth is forecast at about 7%, down from 7.3% in 2014.

Projections indicate a trend towards a moderate uptick in global growth, but a number of serious risks could threaten that outcome. In particular, its highly leveraged economies cast doubt on the eurozone’s ability to sustain growth. Inflation trends point to persistent risks of deflation and low growth in that part of the world. In turn, the situation in Japan could cut into exports from neighbouring countries, especially China, and erode global growth in 2015. In addition to economic factors, geopolitical elements, such as the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East, could hurt growth in 2015.

Beyond the uncertainty regarding the impact of global economic conditions on the region’s export potential, there are other risks associated with commodity prices and international financial dynamics. Certain commodity prices remain on a confirmed downtrend. The World Bank[4] projects that average energy prices (hydrocarbons) will come down by 4.6% in 2015, after declining by an estimated 2.5% in 2014, although the price drop in late 2014 could ultimately increase the year-on-year fall. The prices of agricultural products (food) are expected to drop by 1.1% in 2015, compared with the 3.1% estimated for 2014, while metal prices will go up by 1.2%, after falling by some 5.4% in 2014.

In the financial sphere, despite the uncertainties surrounding the withdrawal of monetary stimulus in the United States, no major changes or turmoil are expected in 2015. Although the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates towards the end of the year, United States monetary policy will remain accommodative. The European Central Bank is expected to maintain or expand its quantitative easing programme in the eurozone.

Global economic conditions impact the countries and subregions of Latin America and the Caribbean in a variety of ways. Overall, the region is projected to grow at an average of 2.2% in 2015, with rates differing, as in 2014, between countries and subregions: Central America, including the Spanish-speaking Caribbean and Haiti, will post growth of 4.1%; South America, 1.8%; and the English-speaking Caribbean, 2.2%.

Stimulating economic growth and reversing the slowdown poses broad challenges for the region in the current global conditions. Weak growth in the developed countries and modest expansion in the emerging economies, together with the post-crisis dynamics of world trade, suggest that boosting the region’s external demand will be a slow and difficult process, which will limit the contribution of exports to growth. Therefore, although international trade remains a source of opportunity, the region must redouble its efforts to build competitiveness in existing external markets and open up new ones.

In this context, regional integration processes can help to boost aggregate demand through trade integration. They can boost productivity and competitiveness through value chains and the integration of production and infrastructure. And, through financial integration, regional cooperation builds capacity to withstand external shocks.

Since the 2009 financial crisis, domestic demand has been the main driver of growth in the region, while net exports made a negative contribution to growth between 2010 and 2013. Against this backdrop, along with boosting its export potential, the region must sustain and increase domestic demand to reverse the slowdown. Loss of momentum in investment —a key component of domestic demand— has been one of the key factors behind the slowdown in many of the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean. That is why the primary challenge now facing the region’s countries in terms of boosting economic growth is to increase public and private investment rates.

Countries’ ability to promote public investment depends on their current fiscal position and their capacity to mobilize resources. As noted above, on average the region’s fiscal deficit has remained relatively stable and its external and domestic public debt levels, with the exception of the Caribbean, are relatively low. So, notwithstanding differences between countries, the region conceivably has the scope to expand public investment with a view to enhancing production capacity and competitiveness through infrastructure projects. This type of investment not only promotes productivity gains, but also serves as an incentive for private investment.

In countries with higher levels of public debt or financing difficulties, the weaker public accounts forecast for 2015 have prompted announcements of budget cuts for the year ahead. Spending containment measures should take into account the need to protect investment and avoid vicious circles whereby fiscal overadjustments strangle growth and tax revenues, ultimately widening the deficit and increasing the public debt burden.

Treating greater public or public-enterprise investment as central to boosting overall investment poses new challenges in terms of countercyclical architecture in Latin America and the Caribbean. The region has made good progress on countercyclical policies to smooth public revenue flows in the event of cyclical changes in the sources of fiscal income. This development has been crucial to sustaining economic growth and should be pursued further. At the same time, the countercyclical architecture needs to include mechanisms to ensure that investment —as an increasingly key variable of economic performance and growth— can be financed at the different phases of the cycle.

Strengthening the investment component not only helps mobilize domestic demand in the short term and promote growth, but is also the main bridge between the challenges of the economic cycle and medium- and long-term growth and development. In this context, development macroeconomics should aim not only to smooth economic cycles, but also to enhance production development and structural change by armour-plating investment growth over time.

Chapter I

International context

The world economy improved slightly in 2014, amid a mixed performance from developed countries and a slowdown in emerging economies.

Global economic growth increased to 2.6%, compared with 2.4% in 2013. Trends were varied among the developed countries. The United Kingdom stood out with economic growth accelerating to 3.1% in 2014, up from 1.7% the previous year. The United States economy grew by 2.1%, slightly down on the 2013 figure of 2.2%, albeit with a second-half performance that bodes well for greater gains in 2015. Eurozone growth was again limited in 2014, with marked contrasts between Germany and Spain on the one hand (which expanded by 1.5% and 1.3% respectively) and, on the other, France, which posted growth of just 0.3%, and Italy, which went into recession with a downturn of 0.4%. Japan showed signs of recovery in early 2014, but slipped into recession towards the end of the year.

Growth in developing economies continued to slow in 2014, while nevertheless remaining far more buoyant than in the developed world. On average, developing economies grew by an estimated 4.4% in 2014, with China’s growth slowing from 7.7% in 2013 to 7.3% in 2014, and India’s rising to 5.4%, from 4.7% in 2013 see figure I.1.

Figure I.1

Selected regions and countries: GDP growth, 2007-2015 a

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of United Nations, Global Economic Outlook, New York, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, October 2014.

a Figures for 2014 are estimates and those for 2015 are projections.

Consistently with these developments, the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean have seen external aggregate demand slump owing to the lacklustre performance of developed economies and the slowing of emerging ones, especially China, which has established itself as the main trading partner for several countries in the region, particularly those that export raw materials.

In keeping with developments in the global economy, the GDP of the Latin American and Caribbean region’s trading partners outside the region expanded 2.9% in 2014, barely above the previous year’s figure (2.8%). This particular indicator of external demand is still performing under the rate seen before the global financial crisis, and more markedly so in South America, whose extraregional trading partners have suffered steeper slowdowns in GDP (see figure I.2).

Figure I.2

Latin America and the Caribbean: economic growth in extraregional trading partner economies a

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Refers to the average GDP growth rates of export destination economies, weighted by their share in the region’s extraregional exports in 2011.

b Projections.

As figure I.3 shows, raw material prices resumed a downward trend in 2014, especially in the second half of the year, albeit with variations from one commodity to another. The estimated average price fall for the group of raw materials steepened to 10.5% in 2014, from a 5.2% drop in 2013. The price of metals fell by 2.3% in 2014, having tumbled by 16.7% in 2013. Food prices were down by about 6.9%, compared with a 15.5% fall in 2013; while energy prices plunged by some 17%, following a 4.6% climb in 2013.

Figure I.3

Index of international commodity prices, weekly values, January 2013 to November 2014

(Base value at January 2013=100)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of Bloomberg and JP Morgan Commodity Index.

Within the region’s main export commodities, food prices weakened by 4.8% on average year-on-year in the first nine months of 2014, with average price falls for maize (-28.5%), owing to a supply surplus, and sugar (-2.3%) owing to overproduction. A good harvest in Argentina and Brazil even as demand slackened in China led to a slump in prices for soybean (-5.9%) and related products, which translated into a price drop of 5.3% for the oil and oilseed category overall.

Tropical beverage prices rose sharply in the first nine months of 2014 (27.2% year-on-year on average), mainly because of the effects of coffee blight in Central America and Mexico and drought in Brazil early in the year.

Prices for minerals and metals fell heavily (-12.9%) over the first three quarters, chiefly reflecting slowdowns in construction and manufacturing in China, one of the world’s largest buyers of these products.

Oil prices rose slightly in the first half of 2014 (2.7% between December 2013 and June 2014), but then fell by a hefty 30% between June and November. On average for the year overall, oil prices will be down by some 3%-4% on 2013, as demand has stagnated in the European Union and China and fallen in some of the emerging economies, amid stable supply by producer countries and increased production from non-conventional sources in the United States. Despite the price fall, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided against cutting oil production at its November 2014 meeting.

Liquidity in international financial markets remained relatively high, thanks to the accommodative monetary policy of the main developed economies, as well as low risk perception. Interest rates remained low, while the withdrawal of monetary stimulus measures in the United States did not lead to interest rate increases, but caused some volatility in financial flows during 2014. The European Central Bank launched a programme of quantitative easing, which at present is limited to the purchase of private financial assets on a smaller scale than similar programmes adopted by the United States Federal Reserve and the Central Bank of Japan.

Chapter II

Economic activity

The GDP of the Latin American and Caribbean region grew by 1.1% in 2014,[5] which was the slowest rate of expansion since 2009 and translated into a standstill in regional per capita GDP. The sluggish regional performance was largely determined by slow or negative growth in some of the largest economies: Argentina (-0.2%), the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (-3.0%) and Brazil (0.2%). Nevertheless, there were substantial differences in growth rates from one country to another.

The region’s fastest-growing economies were the Dominican Republic and Panama (6.0% in both cases), followed by the Plurinational State of Bolivia (5.2%), Colombia (4.8%), Nicaragua and Guyana (4.5% in both cases), then Ecuador, Guatemala and Paraguay (all 4.0%). Chile and Peru were two of the economies that slowed most heavily, with growth rates of 1.8% and 2.8% respectively. The Mexican economy grew by 2.1% in 2014, up from the 1.1% recorded in 2013. With the exception of Saint Lucia, whose economy contracted by 1.4%, the other economies grew at rates ranging from 0.5% to 4.0%. By subregion, South America posted economic expansion of 0.7% (as against 2.8% in 2013), while Central America expanded by 3.7% (4.0% in 2013). The Caribbean economies (not including Cuba, the Dominican Republic or Haiti) posted growth of 1.9%, a stronger rate than in previous years and the highest since 2008 (see figure II.1).

The region’s economic growth is expected to pick up in 2015, with GDP growth of 2.2%, thanks to a variety of factors. First, domestic demand —and especially gross fixed capital formation in several South American countries— is projected to rise, after the downturn in 2014, driven by public or State-driven investment in infrastructure. Economic activity in Mexico and most of the Central American economies should gather (or, in some cases, maintain) momentum thanks to rising demand from the United States, still strong migrant remittances and faster growth in tourism on the back of growth in several developed economies which are major sources for that industry in the subregion.

The pattern of economic activity was differentiated in the region throughout 2014. The slowdown took firmer hold in the second quarter, as investment contracted in several South American economies and consumption weakened across the board. The third quarter brought the beginnings of an upturn in economic activity which carried over into the fourth quarter, but was not enough to offset the poor showing of the first three quarters or to regain the rate from early in the year (see figure II.2).

The lacklustre regional growth may be attributed in large part to a slowdown in private consumption which, in turn, reflected stagnant job creation and slower real wage growth (owing to higher inflation in most of the countries) and slacker credit growth in the financial system. Furthermore, gross fixed capital formation contracted as the construction sector lost momentum or even went into decline, and investment in machinery and equipment fell across the board.

Figure II.1

Latin America and the Caribbean: GDP growth rates, 2014 a

(Percentages on the basis of dollars at constant 2010 prices)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The figures for 2014 are projections.

Gross fixed capital formation contracted by almost 3.5% in the region as a whole, although again with differences at the country level. Gross fixed capital formation rose by more than 5% in Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, the Plurinational State of Bolivia and several Central American economies, but barely grew or even contracted in Argentina, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. In Peru, gross fixed investment slowed sharply in comparison with previous years, as private investment fell and public investment expanded only minimally. Factors in the downturn in gross fixed capital formation in the region were expectations of lower external demand for raw materials, especially metals and minerals, and a rise in operating costs in large-scale mining projects. This was in addition to the culmination of some investments in mining and infrastructure and, in some cases, financing constraints.

The performance of gross fixed capital formation in the region translated into a drop in the investment rate. Measured as a percentage of GDP based on dollars at constant 2010 prices, the regional investment rate dropped to 19.2% of GDP —below the 2010 figure (19.8%)— having hovered at around 20.5% between 2011 and 2013.

Net exports made a positive, albeit slight, contribution to regional growth, since exports of goods and services posted stronger growth (around 3.0%) than in 2013 (1.6%). The upturn in exports was strongest in Mexico and some Central American economies, which benefited from the economic upturn in the United States and a recovery in tourism, an important source of foreign exchange for these countries. Imports of goods and services stagnated in real terms, reflecting slower growth in private consumption and the contraction in gross fixed capital formation (see figure II.3).

Figure II.2

Latin America and the Caribbean: year-on-year change in quarterly GDP, 2010-2014 a

(Percentages on the basis of dollars at constant 2010 prices)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The figure for the fourth quarter of 2014 is an estimate.

Figure II.3

Latin America: GDP growth rate and contribution to growth by the components of domestic demand and net exports, 2002-2014 a

(Percentages and percentage points, on the basis of dollars at constant 2010 prices)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The figures for 2014 are projections.

By sector of economic activity, the slowdown in private consumption led to slacker growth in the commerce, hotels and restaurants sector, despite stronger growth than in 2013 in tourist arrivals in the region. The agricultural sector performed unevenly from one country to another, suffering the effects of adverse climate conditions in Argentina, Brazil and Nicaragua, but growing at rates well above the regional average in Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic and Paraguay.

Mining and drilling activity was also uneven among the countries: in Brazil, Ecuador, the Dominican Republic and Guatemala the sector grew strongly, thanks to increased oil production in the first two countries and new mining projects coming on stream in the latter two. In Peru, however, the sector posted a slight contraction, with increased hydrocarbon production insufficient to offset a downturn in mining output. The mining and drilling sector contracted in Mexico, as well, owing to a fall in oil production. In Chile, the sector expanded slightly thanks to a rise in iron ore and coal production.

Manufacturing, too, delivered a modest performance overall in 2014, contracting in several countries (Argentina, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Brazil and Chile), and posting a stronger performance in Mexico. The construction sectors contracted slightly at the regional level, and more sharply in some South American economies, despite rapid rates of expansion in Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Panama and Paraguay. Growth in the services sector varied from country to country, in line with economic activity overall.

Although prices fell throughout 2014 for many of the commodities exported by the region, which hurt terms of trade, the net food- and fuel- importing countries benefited from these international price trends. The combination of the two patterns resulted in a net terms-of-trade gain for the year overall, albeit a much smaller one than in the three preceding years.

Net payments abroad also declined slightly over the year, reflecting lower remittances of profits and dividends by non-resident firms and higher current transfers as emigrant remittances saw an upturn in Mexico and rose steadily in several Central American countries. As a result, gross national disposable income trended upwards (0.8%), although more slowly than GDP (see figure II.4).

Figure II.4

Latin America: annual growth in GDP and gross national disposable income, 2003-2014 a

(Percentages, on the basis of dollars at constant 2010 prices)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The figures for 2014 are projections.

Slower growth in gross national disposable income led to loss of momentum in national saving at the regional level, which was down on 2013 in GDP terms. In current dollars, the region’s national saving was 17.1% of GDP (compared with 18.1% in 2013), significantly lower than the 22% achieved in 2008. External saving was also down (from 2.6% of GDP in 2013 to 2.4% in 2014). As a result, Latin America’s gross capital investment declined by one percentage point, from 20.7% of GDP in 2013 to 19.5% in 2014 (see figure II.5).

Figure II.5

Latin America: financing of gross domestic investment, 1990-2014

(Percentages of GDP, on the basis of current dollars)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The figures for 2014 are projections.

Chapter III

Domestic prices

Cumulative 12-month inflation in the Latin American and Caribbean region[6] was 9.3% to October 2014, compared with 7.6% in December 2013. Inflation rose above the 2013 figure in most of the countries, but with significant differences between them. The regional figure is heavily influenced by the steady rise in official inflation reported by Argentina (a cumulative figure of 21.3% in the first ten months of the year), and the high rate of consumer inflation in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, which reported a cumulative rate of 39% in the first eight months. In the latter case, the steady rise in consumer prices reflects shortages, as well as the impact of national currency depreciation on domestic prices and rapid growth of monetary aggregates. Argentina began to publish a new list of national urban consumer prices in 2014, to replace the consumer price index of the Greater Buenos Aires Province, and consumer inflation rates rose.

Inflation came in at 8.1% in the 12 months to October 2014 in Uruguay, and 9.0% and 7.8%, respectively, in the 12 months to September in Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago. Consumer inflation was lowest in El Salvador (1.9%), Bahamas (1.0%), Belize (0.7%) and some economies of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. By subregion, South America posted the highest average rate, at just under 12%, with Central America and Mexico posting lower rates. Several economies in the Caribbean also saw inflation rise over the December 2013 figure (see figure III.1).

The higher regional inflation figure reflected a rise in both food prices and core inflation. Food inflation ticked up sharply as of May 2014 and exceeded overall inflation, except in Argentina, Barbados, Belize, Costa Rica, Haiti, Panama, Paraguay, Plurinational State of Bolivia and Saint Lucia. Core inflation[7] increased in most of the countries in the first half of the year. In the regional average, food prices were up by 11.8% in the 12 months to October 2014 (as against a 9.3% cumulative rise in the 12 months to December 2013 and 8.3% in 2012), while core inflation rose 9.1% in the 12 months to October 2014, compared with 7.0% in 12 months to December 2013 and 5.1% in 2012 (see figure III.2).

By country, the highest inflation rates in the 12 months to October 2014 were posted in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (91%),[8] Argentina (20.6%),[9] Trinidad and Tobago (15.7%), Jamaica (12.5%), Chile (10.1%), Nicaragua (10.2%) and Uruguay (9.9%). In Mexico and some Central American and Caribbean countries, food inflation to October 2014 ran at between 2 and 5.2 percentage points above general inflation, in a reversal of the pattern in the first half of the year, when food prices rose more slowly than consumer prices overall.

The behavior of food and core inflation is reflected in the pattern of goods and services prices in the region. As figure III.3 shows, whereas services prices quickened throughout the year, inflation in goods prices rose mostly from the second quarter on, driven by the uptick in food price inflation.

Figure III.1

Latin America and the Caribbean: consumer price index, 12-month variation, January 2010-October 2014

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

Figure III.2

Latin America and the Caribbean: 12-month cumulative rates of consumer price inflation, food inflation and core inflation, January 2007-October 2014

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

Figure III.3

Latin America and the Caribbean: 12-month rates of variation in indices of consumer prices, goods prices and services prices, January 2007-October 2014

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

Table III.1

Latin America and the Caribbean: 12-month cumulative rate of variation in general consumer inflation and in foods and beverages price index, 2013-2014

12-month cumulative inflation to December 2013

12-month cumulative inflation to October 2014

Overall CPI

CPI foods and beverages

Overall CPI

CPI foods and beverages

Latin America and the Caribbean

7.6

9.3

9.3

11.8

South America

9.2

11.7

11.8

14.3

Argentina a

10.9

9.3

24.2

20.6

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

6.5

9.2

3.6

3.0

Brazil

5.9

8.5

6.6

7.6

Chile

3.0

5.7

6.1

10.1

Colombia

1.9

0.8

3.3

4.3

Ecuador

2.7

2.2

4.0

4.9

Paraguay

3.7

6.2

3.5

2.1

Peru

2.9

2.2

3.1

3.7

Uruguay

8.5

8.5

8.1

9.9

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) b

56.2

73.9

63.4

91.0

Central America and Mexico

3.9

4.3

4.3

6.5

Costa Rica

3.7

3.4

5.7

5.2

Cuba c

0.0

…

1.2

…

Dominican Republic

3.9

2.1

2.9

5.6

El Salvador

0.8

1.9

1.9

5.9

Guatemala

4.4

8.7

3.6

8.8

Haiti c

3.4

2.9

5.3

4.5

Honduras

4.9

4.9

6.3

7.8

Mexico

4.0

4.1

4.3

6.5

Nicaragua

5.4

5.1

6.8

10.2

Panama

3.7

4.6

2.1

1.9

The Caribbean d

5.1

5.4

5.6

8.7

Antigua and Barbuda e

1.1

2.1

0.8

1.3

Bahamas b

0.7

1.2

1.0

7.3

Barbados b

1.1

0.5

3.1

1.3

Belize c

0.0

0.4

0.7

-0.3

Dominica e

-1.1

0.9

1.0

1.3

Grenada e

-0.1

0.6

-1.3

0.6

Guyana e

0.9

0.0

0.3

-0.1

Jamaica c

9.7

7.9

9.0

12.5

Saint Kitts and Nevis e

0.4

4.1

0.5

3.0

Saint Lucia e

-0.7

-2.2

4.3

0.3

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines e

0.0

1.8

-0.2

2.5

Suriname b

1.4

2.4

3.3

3.7

Trinidad and Tobago c

5.6

10.2

7.8

15.7

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Data issued by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) for the consumer price index of the Greater Buenos Aires Province (IPC-GBA) (for 2013 data) and for the national urban consumer price index (IPCNu) published since January 2014 were used to calculate 12-month inflation to October 2014.

b Data to August 2014.

c Data to September 2014

d According to the latest information available in the countries.

e Data to June 2014.

Chapter IV

Employment and wages

The patterns of the main labour variables in 2013 carried over into 2014 in Latin America and the Caribbean, with sluggish economic growth keeping labour demand subdued and limiting growth in the number of wage workers, which led to a fall in the employment rate. The region’s participation rate also continued to fall faster than the employment rate, however, so urban unemployment eased down once again, notwithstanding the lacklustre economic conditions. For 2014 overall, the urban employment rate is estimated to have edged down to 56.2% from 56.6% in 2013, and urban participation to 59.8% in 2014 from 60.4% in 2013. As a result, the region’s open unemployment rate came down again, albeit slightly, from 6.2% to 6.0%. The number of urban unemployed is estimated to have fallen by 230,000, to about 13.2 million.

The year-on-year decline in the employment rate comes as no surprise, given this variable’s close link with economic growth. However, as figure IV.1 shows, as in 2013, the fall was slightly larger than might have been expected in view of the pattern of preceding years. Two explanations may be ventured in this regard: on the demand side, the slowdown in certain labour-intensive tertiary sector activities may have constrained wage job creation; and, on the supply side, the slack labour demand did not result (as it has in the past in the region) in mass engagement in low-productivity own-account work, which would typically have lessened the impact of weak labour demand on the overall picture. These two points will be explored in greater depth later.

Figure IV.1

Latin America and the Caribbean: economic growth and variation in the urban employment rate, 2000-2014

(Percentages and percentage points)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Figures for 2014 are projections.

Until 2012 (except for 2009), declining unemployment reflected a faster rise in employment than in participation, but in the rolling year from the third quarter of 2012 to the second quarter of 2013, when regional employment came down slightly, it was instead the result of a reversal in the participation rate, which began to fall faster than employment. As shown in figure IV.2, this pattern took firmer hold in 2014, with a steeper decline in both participation and employment

At the same time, this pattern regarding the main labour variables in the region did not occur evenly across all the countries. Figure IV.3 shows variation in the participation and employment rates for a group of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. The diagonal line separates the countries with rises and falls in the unemployment rate. The only country in which unemployment declined because of participation falling more than employment was Brazil. However, a lower participation rate also averted a hefty rise in unemployment in Peru and contained the increase in Argentina, Ecuador and Mexico. By contrast, the employment rate rose in several countries and helped to bring down unemployment in some of them, through not all. In fact, taking an average for the 16 countries for which these data are available for the first three quarters of 2014, apart from Ecuador and Mexico as mentioned above, only Chile, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Panama and Paraguay posted higher urban unemployment.

Figure IV.2

Latin America (10 countries): a participation, employment and unemployment rates, rolling years, first quarter 2011 to third quarter 2014

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Includes Argentina, Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Jamaica, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay.

Unemployment was down in the three Caribbean countries for which information in available (Bahamas, Belize and Jamaica), thanks to a modest upturn in economic activity in the subregion.

In the first three quarters of the year, employment climbed by an estimated 0.9% in the regional aggregate (weighted average for 13 countries), reflecting a marginal (0.2%) variation in average labour productivity. In particular, wage employment rose by an estimated 1.1%, and unwaged employment only slightly. However, in some countries (including Argentina and Brazil), own-account work expanded quite strongly, suggesting that this category of employment could return to the behaviour it typically exhibits when labour demand is weak.

The gender breakdown for the main labour indicators is very different in the weighted and simple averages for the countries included. As noted earlier, in the weighted average for 15 countries, both participation and employment declined. In the weighted average, both these rates fell more sharply for women than for men, breaking the long-term trend in which the gender gaps in these two variables were narrowing. The only gap that continued to narrow was in the unemployment rate, which fell a little more steeply for women than for men. However, in the simple averages for the same countries, both participation and employment rose. Yet, women are at a disadvantage by this measure too, since both rates rose less for women than for men, and unemployment decreased by less for women than for men.

Figure IV.3

Latin America and the Caribbean (16 countries): year-on-year variation in urban participation and employment rates, average for first to third quarters of 2014

(Percentage points)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

Figure IV.4

Latin America and the Caribbean (simple and weighted averages for 15 countries): year-on-year variation in rates of participation,

employment and unemployment for men and women, average for first to third quarters of 2014

(Percentage points)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

The slower rate of job creation for women than for men —as expressed in a larger drop in female employment in the weighted average for the countries and a smaller rise in female employment in the simple average— could be related to the weakening of employment in the tertiary sector, owing to slacker demand on the part of households. Many activities within the tertiary sector are associated with consumption, and this sector has contributed a sizeable proportion of new employment (chiefly in the medium- or high-productivity segment) in the past few years.[10] This particular dynamic appears to have run its course, however. In the simple average for 12 countries, employment in the main branches of the tertiary sector (commerce, restaurants and hotels; community, social and personal services; and transport, storage and communications) slipped as a proportion of total employment (0.2 percentage points) in the first three quarters of 2014, in a break from the long-run trend towards concentration of employment in this sector. Employment in commerce has, in fact, declined in relative terms almost across the region, dropping by 0.2 percentage points of total employment in these 12 countries in the median.[11]

Weak demand for labour also slowed registered employment creation.[12] As shown in figure IV.5, year-on-year rates of formal job creation trended down in most of the countries. Among the countries with data available, only Mexico shows an upturn in the course of the year, possibly owing in part to economic growth above the 2013 figure and to renewed efforts to formalize existing jobs, with recently implemented incentives for small businesses and microenterprises, including tax discounts and subsidized social security contributions.

Figure IV.5

Latin America (7 countries): year-on-year variation in the registered employment rate, moving quarterly averages, first quarter of 2012 to third quarter of 2014 a

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The data refer to wage workers paying into social security systems, except for Peru, where they refer to employment in formal enterprises, whether small, medium or large.

Meanwhile, in Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru and Uruguay, year-on-year expansion in formal employment slipped below 2% in the third quarter of 2014.[13]

Conversely, hourly underemployment lessened in almost all the countries with information available and varied little in the rest (see figure IV.6).[14]

Figure IV.6

Latin America (10 countries): year-on-year variation in the hourly underemployment rate, average for first to third quarters of 2014

(Percentage points)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

Real average wage trends in the region tracked the mixed patterns of economic activity. In the South American countries for which information is available, on the whole real wages rose less in 2014 than in 2013, in some cases reflecting smaller nominal wage rises, but mostly because of higher inflation. By contrast, in Mexico and the Central American countries, real wages climbed faster than in 2013, thanks to a larger nominal wage gain and lower average inflation than in 2013.

Figure IV.7

Latin America (10 countries): a breakdown of year-on-year variation in real wages, by subregion, 2013 and first three quarters of 2014

(Percentage points)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Includes Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Panama in Central America; Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay in South America; as well as Mexico.

For the 10 countries with information available for 2014, real wages are estimated to have increased by 1.3%, the same figure as in 2013, in the weighted average for the countries, and by 1.8% in the simple average. With wage variation similar to 2013, but job creation weaker, wage bill expansion was smaller in 2014, which subdued demand by households and thereby demand overall.

In the past in Latin America, weak job creation, such as that seen in 2014, has typically pushed up unemployment and informal employment and dampened nominal wage growth, as households increase the labour supply in an effort to generate income amid narrowing job options. The cooling of labour demand which began in 2013 and has sharpened in 2014 at the regional level —although not in all the countries— has not produced this typical response on a broad scale, however. As noted earlier, the lower levels of employment did not lead to higher unemployment because labour market participation declined significantly. The fact that labour markets were freer than they might have been from supply-side pressures allowed hourly underemployment to come down more or less across the board, and nominal wages to expand similarly to 2013 (although with some differences between countries).

This departure from the region’s historical pattern may be attributed to recent changes in the levels and composition of household income. First, the proportion of poor households in the region has decreased quite substantially thanks in part to gains in real income on the back of a strongly climbing employment rate as of 2003. Since poor households are precisely those that tend to show countercyclical labour supply behaviour (while better-off households tend to behave procyclically in respect of labour supply), the gain in labour income tended to make overall labour supply less countercylical.[15] Second, many countries set up support systems for low-income households, which had the effect of reducing labour supply pressure. The fact that many of these transfers have been conditional upon school attendance by children in recipient households has added incentives to keep these children and young people in school and out of the labour market. Several countries also created specific schemes to keep young people in education longer.

In light of the foregoing, what may be expected for the region’s labour market in 2015? The weak economic growth projection suggests that labour demand will remain subdued, although the employment rate should not decline as sharply as in 2014. Although a falling participation rate is clearly not sustainable in the long run, it is hard to say whether labour supply will return to its long-term trend in 2015 or if its increase will remain contained. The most likely scenario seems to be that the participation rate will decrease less than in 2014 at the regional level, but will not start to rise again either. Accordingly, unemployment will not fall further, but is unlikely to increase significantly.

With labour demand slack, nominal wages are expected post smaller gains, although the relatively low levels of unemployment will avert too sharp a slowdown in wage growth. With inflation tending to stabilize or, in some cases, to ease downwards, wages will continue to rise moderately in real terms.

Chapter V

The external sector

In 2014, the region’s current account deficit eased down to 2.4% of GDP (2.6% in 2013), thus ending a four-year run of deficit expansion (see figure V.1).

Figure V.1

Latin America: current account structure, 2006-2014

(Percentages of GDP)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Figures for 2014 are projections.

The current account components showed no major variations in 2014 for the regional overall. Amid a sluggish global economic and trade performance, the goods balance held steady at 0.3% of GDP in both 2013 and 2014, with imports falling slightly more than exports. Tourism picked up in the region, especially in Mexico and Central America, helping to drive a marginal narrowing of the services deficit (from -1.4% of GDP in 2013 to -1.3% in 2014). Family remittances from the United States gathered momentum, but those from Spain shrank, leaving the current transfers surplus (1.0% of GDP) at the same figure over both years. The deficit on the income balance narrowed slightly (from -2.6% of GDP in 2013 to -2.5% in 2014), thanks to lower remittances of profits from foreign direct investment (FDI), as the region’s export prices trended down during the year.

The prices of a number of the region’s export commodities, which had begun to fall in 2012, continued to trend downwards —or stood still, in certain cases— in 2014. This was partly the effect of shrinking global demand for these goods, owing chiefly to China’s economic slowdown, and partly the effect of an expansion in global supply resulting from earlier investments in the natural resources sector. Financial market dynamics have also affected the behavior of commodity prices.

The terms of trade are estimated to have deteriorated by 2.6% in 2014 for the region overall (see figure V.2), although with differences from one country to another. In South America the downturn (-2.7%) is the result of lower prices for the subregion’s export commodities, which eroded the terms of trade of the main exporters of mining products and metals, Brazil (2.7%), Chile and Peru (2.8%). The hydrocarbon exporters —Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador and Plurinational State of Bolivia— also saw a significant decline (-4.6%) in their terms of trade. However, the countries that export agro-industrial products, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, posted a smaller term-of-trade loss, at -0.4%, than the subregion overall.

Figure V.2

Latin America and the Caribbean: variation in the terms of trade, 2011-2014 a

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The figures for 2014 are projections.

The Central American countries recorded a 1.1% terms-of-trade gain, thanks to higher prices for some of their export products and lower prices for energy imports. Terms of trade for the Caribbean food- and fuel- importing countries (that is, the Caribbean not including Trinidad and Tobago) are set to post a stable gain of 0.1%. Despite the large share of manufactures in its export structure, Mexico’s terms of trade were down by 2.4%, similarly to the figure for the region overall, owing to the steep price drops for its export commodities (gold, silver, steel and oil).

Although the eurozone emerged from recession in the second half of 2013, its year-on-year quarterly growth rate has remained stubbornly below 1% and its recovery is likely to be a lengthy process. China’s economy has continued to slow as the country seeks to shift its development model away from exports and investment towards one based chiefly on domestic consumption. Conversely, growth is picking up in the United States, which has boosted its imports from Latin America. As shown in figure V.3, United States imports are gathering strength while those of the European Union (28 countries, extraregional trade) are still growing only slowly. China’s imports have flattened out at a relatively low level compared with previous years, and the rest of the BRICS countries (Brazil, the Russian Federation, India and South Africa) turned in a negative performance in the first half of 2014.

Sluggish external demand and increased supply of commodities (hydrocarbons, soybean and copper) in some markets pushed down export prices (with a 2.8% drop in unit values), which eroded the region’s export performance and the value of exports came down by 0.8%, a heavier fall than in 2013 (-0.2%).

Underlying this performance lie factors that vary by subregion and the destinations of each country’s exports. As shown in figure V.4, in South America both volumes and prices fell for exports, while in Mexico, export volumes rose on the whole, but unit values declined.

Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean service-exporting economies benefited from the steady economic recovery in the United States, the main destination for many of their exports.

Figure V.3

United States, European Union,a China and the other BRICS:b year-on-year variation in imports, first quarter of 2011 to third quarter of 2014

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the World Trade Organization (WTO).

a Extraregional trade of 28 countries.

b Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa.

Figure V.4

Latin America: estimated variation in export values, by volume and price, 2014

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

Conversely, South America felt the effects of slack demand for its goods in Europe and China, which resulted in a standstill in export volumes in Brazil (0.1%) and Chile (1.8%), and a decline in exports in Peru (-5.9%). Export volumes slumped in Argentina (-10.0%), as well, and stagnated in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (0.2%).

Import performance, too, was differentiated by subregion. In most of the South American countries, import volumes dropped sharply (by 5.0%) on the back of a heavy fall in domestic demand, consumption and investment (see figure V.5).

In Chile, import volumes plunged 7.8%, with the fall encompassing all durable goods segments, including machinery and equipment. Imports were down, as well (in volume terms), in Brazil (-2.6%) and Peru (-2.1%), as a result of more sluggish spending. The volume of imports also dropped sharply in Argentina (-10.5%) and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (-17.7%). Conversely, in Colombia, Mexico and most of the Central American countries, import volumes continued to rise, albeit more slowly than in the past, in keeping with their economic performance. For Latin America overall, import values were down —by 1.1%— for the first time since the international financial crisis of 2008-2009.

Figure V.5

Latin America: estimated variation in import values, by volume and price, 2014

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

Since the factors underlying the more subdued import demand are chiefly procyclical in nature, an upturn in domestic demand, particularly consumption, could send the current account back into deterioration.

In the first eight months of 2014 Mexico enjoyed a considerable upturn in international tourist arrivals (19.0%). In fact, Mexico was the country with the strongest growth in the tourism sector, thanks to the economic recovery and mounting consumer confidence in the United States, which boosted tourism spending by United States citizens above the previous years’ figures. The Caribbean and Central American countries recorded stronger growth in tourist arrivals (5.9% in both cases) for the same reason. In the case of South America, the football world cup helped to increase arrivals (6.6%) (see figure V.6).

Figure V.6

Latin America and the Caribbean: year-on-year variation in international tourist arrivals, 2011-2014

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The figures for 2014 refer to January-August.

The upturn in the United States’ labour market also underpinned a surge in remittances to Mexico (7.2% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2014) and Central America, including the Dominican Republic (8.7% in the first half-year) and with the exception of Costa Rica, where remittances fell by 1.0% year-on-year in the first half. The high rate of unemployment in Spain forced many emigrants to return home and eroded remittances from that country. As a result, remittances dropped heavily (by -=5.5% in the first half-year) for the South American countries which receive the highest flows from Spain: Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay and the Plurinational State of Bolivia. All in all, the different patterns in remittances between the subregions left the transfers balance unchanged from 2013.

Figure V.7

Latin America and the Caribbean (12 countries): variation in inflows of remittances from migrants abroad, 2012-2014

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The data for 2014 refer to January-June for Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic and Ecuador; to January-July for Colombia and Jamaica; to January-August for the Plurinational State of Bolivia; to January-September for El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Peru; and to January-October for Guatemala and Mexico.

The income balance ran a deficit of 2.5% of GDP, showing little difference from 2013 (-2.6%). Outflows were down by 9% in Brazil and Mexico, owing chiefly to falls in export commodity prices, which cut into the profits of foreign firms operating in these countries. Accordingly, the income balance improved slightly in these two countries.

Generally speaking, the region continued to enjoy ready access to external financing in 2014. The net inflow of financial resources was more than enough to cover the growing current account deficit, so that international reserves expanded again.

As may be observed in table V.1, the financial account shows a slight rise in net financial resources flowing into the region in 2014, but a marked shift in their composition. Net FDI for the region overall shrank by 23% over the year, owing to several factors. Part of the downturn may be attributed to the end of the commodity boom (Chile and Peru), purchases of national firms which pushed up FDI levels with one-time operations in 2013 (Mexico), and one-off disinvestments (Argentina).

Table V.1

Latin America (18 countries): current account balance and components of the financial account

(Millions of dollars)

Current account balance

Capital and financial account, errors and omissions

Net foreign direct investment

Other net financial flows

Reserves and related items

2012

2013

2014 a

2012

2013

2014 a

2012

2013

2014 a

2012

2013

2014 a

2012

2013

2014 a

Argentina

-1 167

-4 813

-4 827

-2 138

-7 010

2 327

13 889

10 256

2 945

-16 027

-17 267

-618

3 305

11 824

2 500

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

1 970

1 173

820

-258

-51

227

1 060

1 750

950

-1 318

-1 801

-723

-1 712

-1 122

-1 047

Brazil

-54 249

-81 108

-83 404

73 148

75 182

97 580

68 093

67 491

64 000

5 055

7 691

33 580

-18 900

5 926

-14 177

Chile

-9 081

-9 485

-2 739

8 714

9 796

1 626

6 212

9 335

5 500

2 503

461

-3 874

367

-311

1 113

Colombia

-11 834

-12 276

-18 379

17 257

19 223

22 284

16 135

8 546

12 818

1 122

10 676

9 465

-5 423

-6 946

-3 904

Costa Rica

-2 422

-2 452

-1 823

4 532

2 913

1 519

1 904

2 424

1 881

2 628

489

-362

-2 110

-461

304

Dominican Republic

-4 224

-2 467

-1 592

3 784

3 807

1 698

3 142

1 990

1 920

642

1 817

-222

440

-1 340

-106

Ecuador

-182

-1 177

146

-399

3 023

1 574

585

728

600

-984

2 295

974

582

-1 846

-1 719

El Salvador

-1 288

-1 577

-1 030

1 939

1 250

1 279

484

137

90

1 455

1 113

1 188

-651

327

-248

Guatemala

-1 309

-1 465

-976

1 808

2 168

1 109

1 205

1 275

2 294

603

893

-1 185

-499

-702

-132

Honduras

-1 581

-1 764

-1 475

1 290

2 243

1 723

851

992

1 049

439

1 251

674

291

-479

-248

Mexico

-15 431

-26 485

-23 161

32 955

44 274

37 812

-4 339

28 955

9 310

37 294

15 318

28 502

-17 524

-17 789

-14 651

Nicaragua

-1 347

-1 280

-837

1 332

1 375

1 049

761

741

775

571

634

274

15

-96

-212

Panama

-3 816

-4 806

-4 138

3 841

5 428

4 821

3 162

4 371

2 325

679

1 058

2 496

-24

-622

-683

Paraguay

-231

621

1 334

207

415

-187

480

382

670

-272

33

-857

24

-1 036

-1 147

Peru

-6 281

-9 126

-12 401

21 069

12 028

9 896

11 840

9 161

6 860

9 229

2 867

3 036

-14 788

-2 902

2 505

Uruguay

-2 706

-3 006

-2 728

5 993

5 951

4 245

2 689

2 769

3 000

3 304

3 181

1 246

-3 287

-2 945

-1 517

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

11 016

8 000

15 540

-12 012

-13 000

-16 667

756

2 400

1 000

-12 768

-15 400

-17 667

996

5 000

1 128

Latin America

-104 165

-153 494

-141 671

163 061

169 013

173 913

128 909

153 704

117 988

34 152

15 309

55 925

-58 896

-15 520

-32 242

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Projections.

By contrast, other financial flows, including those that are more volatile and bond issues abroad, expanded strongly and more than tripled the net flows of the previous year. This reflects a surge in issues of sovereign and quasi-sovereign bonds, and State bank instruments (see figure V.8). Brazil, in particular, expanded its issues of sovereign bonds, as well as Petrobras bonds in the framework of its investment and fuel-price support plans, and National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) bonds as part of its efforts to bolster domestic credit. Other countries, such as Chile and Mexico, maintained an active presence in external bond markets as interest rates remained low (see table A-14 of the statistical annex).

Figure V.8

Latin America: external bond issues and country risk according to EMBI+, January 2010 to September 2014

(Millions of dollars and basis points)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the Latin Finance Bonds Database, JP Morgan and Merrill Lynch.

Sovereign risk premiums remained stable on the whole, except for Argentina and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, where they rose sharply in the second semester. In the first case, the surge was in response to the ruling of a United States court regarding payment for the holdouts from the financial swap of 2005, which led Argentina into involuntary default. In the case of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, evidence of a growing foreign exchange shortage, in addition to the slump in the price of oil, the country’s main export commodity, pushed the risk premium sharply up. The jump in sovereign risk is a significant consideration for both countries, inasmuch as they will need external financial support if they are to maintain their current policy framework.

Chapter VI

Macroeconomic policies

A. Fiscal policy

According to projections, Latin America’s fiscal balance deteriorated slightly, on average, in 2014. The subregion’s primary deficit (before public debt interest payments) is expected to stand at 0.8% of GDP, and the overall central government deficit will widen from 2.4% of GDP in 2013 to 2.7% in 2014 (see figure VI.1), with a drop in total revenues and a slight upturn in public spending. The subregion as a whole has posted a fiscal deficit since 2009, but this has not pushed up public debt, which has held steady at about 32% of GDP, with an external component of less than 15 percentage points of GDP.

Figure VI.1

Latin America (19 countries): central government fiscal indicators, 2005-2014 a

(Percentages of GDP)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Simple averages. The data for 2014 are estimates.

The Caribbean should see an improved fiscal position in 2014, with the overall average subregional deficit at the central government level shrinking from 4.1% of GDP in 2013 to 3.9% in 2014 (see figure VI.2). Jamaica made a sizeable contribution to that improvement as it brought down its debt by 4 percentage points of GDP within the framework of its fiscal consolidation programme. Nevertheless, the subregion’s debt levels remain high, at close to 80% of GDP on average, with a substantial external component.

Figure VI.2

The Caribbean (13 countries and territories): central government fiscal indicators, 2005-2014 a

(Percentages of GDP)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Simple averages. The data for 2014 are estimates.

Beyond the averages, the fiscal situation in Latin America and the Caribbean is heterogeneous. Despite the wider deficit and slowing economies, public debt has not risen in general. This apparent contradiction is explained by very favourable borrowing conditions for many countries, which have led to improvements in the cost and maturity profile of public debt in recent years.

Figure VI.3

Latin America (19 countries): fiscal balance and public debt, 2014 a

(Percentages of GDP)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The data for 2014 are estimates.

b General government.

Total fiscal revenues fell in the oil-exporting countries and tax revenues rose slightly in several of the region’s economies. Estimates for Latin America show total fiscal revenues down by 0.2 percentage points of GDP on average in 2014. In 12 of the 19 countries analysed, the year-on-year variation was less than 0.5 percentage points of GDP, though some countries did see more significant changes. Fiscal revenues rose markedly in Argentina (by the equivalent of 2.9 percentage points of GDP), Honduras (1.8 percentage points) and the Dominican Republic (0.6 percentage points). By contrast, fiscal revenues fell considerably in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (3.7 percentage points), Haiti (1.8 percentage points), Ecuador (1.7 percentage points) and Mexico (1.3 percentage points).

Fiscal revenues have grown in Argentina on the back of higher revenues from value added tax (VAT) and corporate and personal income taxes. Social security contributions have expanded in line with the rise in taxable wages. Non-tax revenues also rose owing to higher property income.

Figure VI.4

The Caribbean (13 countries and territories): fiscal balance and public debt, 2014 a

(Percentages of GDP)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The data for 2014 are estimates.

Figure VI.5

Latin America and the Caribbean: total fiscal revenues and central government tax revenues by subregion and country grouping, 2013-2014 a

(Percentages of GDP)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures and budgets and estimates.

a The data for 2014 are estimates.

b Federal public sector.

In Honduras, the recent tax reform boosted tax revenues, especially from indirect taxes. The new measures included increasing the VAT rate from 12% to 15% and reducing the number of goods in the basic VAT-exempt basket. The increase in total fiscal revenues in the Dominican Republic is attributable chiefly to the non-recurring income obtained in 2014 through income tax and sales tax. Substantial revenues were also generated by the new taxes on mining (the minimum annual mining tax and the tax on mining profits).

The sharp fall in international commodity prices dragged down the fiscal revenues of the commodity-exporting countries. Non-tax revenues were down by 1.8 percentage points of GDP in Mexico, and by an average of 0.7 percentage points of GDP in the other oil-exporting countries. The metal- and mineral-exporting countries also reported a drop in non-tax revenues (by 0.3 percentage points of GDP).

The performance of tax revenues in the Caribbean diverged by type of exporter, falling in countries that export non-renewable natural resources but climbing strongly in exporters of services, thanks to the economic upturn. Tax revenues also performed favourably in Mexico and Central America. On average for Latin America, non-tax revenues decreased and tax revenues increased.

Several countries in the region have carried out tax reforms in recent years.[16] Although a variety of changes have been made, one of the most notable developments with respect to previous decades has been the focus on income tax, not only for the purpose of improving revenue collection by tax systems, but also to strengthen one of the weakest points of regional fiscal policy, which is the impact of tax systems on income distribution.

The reforms have addressed various aspects of the income tax design, in particular the expansion or reduction of the tax base, rate changes and international taxation.

Other changes have sought to expand the income tax base by establishing dual personal income tax systems (Uruguay in 2007 and Peru in 2009). The tax reforms adopted in several Central American countries have established set rates of between 10% and 15% for capital income that was previously exempt (with exceptions for income earned by non-residents), as well as higher corporate tax rates and progressive taxes on labour income. This model is similar to the Uruguayan version of the dual income tax system.[17]

Other countries in the region have recently succeeded in broadening the personal income tax base by including some types of capital income that were exempt from this tax in the past. The Uruguayan government repealed exemptions from individual income tax (IRPF) and non-resident income tax (IRNR) for transactions involving bearer shares, which are now taxable in the same manner as those involving registered shares. The authorities in Argentina withdrew the exemption on transactions of unlisted equities and securities, which will now be taxed at 15%, and levied a 10% tax on payments of dividends. Meanwhile, the personal income tax base shrank, as the tax-free allowance was raised and deductions from taxable income increased.

In Chile, a broad tax reform was enacted at the end of 2014 with a view to improving the distributive impact of the tax system and the efficiency of revenue collection. Its main features are the creation of a semi-integrated tax system, the abolition of the taxable profits fund (FUT, by its Spanish acronym) —which was used by companies to defer tax payments on profits retained for future investments— as well as the elimination of instant asset depreciation for large businesses and the taxation of capital gains on real estate for high-income sectors. The reform also includes investment incentives for small and medium-sized enterprises and a gradual rise in the corporate income tax rate from 20% to 27% under the semi-integrated system.

In Mexico, the government introduced a 10% tax on stock-market capital gains and dividend, and eliminated or reduced special allowances and preferential arrangements for corporate income tax. With respect to personal income tax, the changes included a new limit on personal deductions and the reduction of the allowance on income from the sale of residential property. Spending on education is also deductible from personal income tax, up to a ceiling that varies according to the educational level.

Colombia presents an interesting case in that two minimum personal income taxes were introduced in 2012, with the dual aim of gradually improving the level of compliance and the distributive effect. The alternative minimum tax (IMAN) is mandatory for employees and has progressive rates ranging from 0% to 27% up to a certain amount of taxable income. Meanwhile, the simple alternative minimum tax is a simplified system for employees and own-account workers, with rates ranging from 0% to 8.17%, which applies to the same tax base as IMAN.

Most of the reforms have included international taxation provisions by adapting regulations on transfer pricing, tax havens and the income of non-residents (Chile, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama and Peru). Several countries have also signed information-sharing agreements in order to combat tax evasion.

As noted earlier, most of the countries hit by commodity price volatility are studying or implementing measures to strengthen tax collection so that price falls can be offset without undermining medium-term public finance sustainability. The key focus in the region has been to boost capital income tax and countries which have not yet introduced such reforms, particularly those with large fiscal deficits, are likely to do so in the near future.

Despite the slowdown, the countries of the region were able to maintain public spending and investment as a percentage of GDP. Capital spending also held steady or even increased as a share of GDP in many countries in 2014. It was down in Central America and the Dominican Republic, however, as well as in the oil-exporting countries, which nevertheless —especially in the cases of Ecuador and the Plurinational State of Bolivia— kept up very high levels of public investment. In the Caribbean and in Brazil, the very heavy burden of interest payments is standing in the way of more active fiscal measures.

Figure VI.6

Latin America and the Caribbean: disaggregated central government public spending by subregion and country grouping, 2013-2014 a

(Percentages of GDP)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The data for 2014 are estimates.

b Federal public sector.

The countries with low public debt (and therefore more readily available financing) have reacted to the slowdown with more active fiscal policies. In Peru, a set of initiatives adopted in November 2014, with a view to accelerating growth and reducing the costs and time frame for the implementation of public and private investment projects, is expected to give a boost equivalent to 2% of GDP. Moreover, the government has lowered income tax rates for individuals in lower taxable income segments, established mechanisms to promote equipment purchases by microenterprises and, from 2015, will gradually decrease corporate income tax from its current rate of 30% to 26% in 2019.

Chile has lined up an expansionary budget for 2015, increasing total expenditure by 9.9% in real terms and spending on non-financial assets (investment and capital transfers) by 27.5%. Meanwhile, the upward trend in investment spending will continue in the Plurinational State of Bolivia, with much of it going to the infrastructure sector.

Mexico has put in place a medium-term framework of countercyclical fiscal policy by strengthening tax revenues, introducing structural reforms in various areas and creating the Mexican Petroleum Fund for Stabilization and Development. The country’s annual transfers may not exceed 4.7% of GDP (in contrast to the current flows exceeding 7%), which is expected to reduce gradually the federal budget’s dependence on hydrocarbon revenues and promote long-term savings.

In countries with higher levels of public debt or financing difficulties, the weaker public accounts forecast for 2015 have prompted announcements of budget cuts for the year ahead. Spending containment measures should take into account the need to protect investment and avoid vicious circles whereby fiscal overadjustments strangle growth and tax revenues, ultimately widening the deficit and increasing the public debt burden.

B. Monetary, exchange-rate and macroprudential policies

On the monetary and exchange-rate front, countries in the region adopted a clearly countercyclical approach in 2014, regardless of the specific policy regime. More emphasis was placed on stimulating aggregate demand and setting and monitoring medium-term inflation targets. At the same time, authorities sought to mitigate the effects of external volatility on the region’s financial markets by using international reserves and modifying macroprudential regulations.

The main challenge faced by policymakers in 2014 was to find a balance between the pursuit of inflation targets, growth and currency stability, depending on the external context and aggregate domestic demand. They used all available tools to that end, paying heed to existing inflationary pressures, exchange-rate fluctuations resulting from the volatility and uncertainty in international financial markets, and the slowdown in aggregate demand, especially external demand. As a result, the course of monetary policy changed throughout the year, reflecting efforts to bolster economic activity, regardless of the monetary regime of each country.

Thus, in most economies with inflation targeting (Chile, Mexico and Peru), monetary authorities reduced policy rates to stimulate aggregate domestic demand, even though inflation breached the upper limit of the target range in 2014. In Brazil and Colombia, the authorities adopted a prudent stance and increased policy rates as the gap between utilized and installed capacity narrowed and consumption growth threatened to exceed forecast scenarios.

Figure VI.7

Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru: monetary policy rate, January 2013 to November 2014

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

In most of the economies that use monetary aggregates as their principal policy instrument, the monetary base grew at a slightly faster pace in 2014. Since mid-2013 the expansion of the monetary base had been slowing in most of the region’s economies, but this trend was reversed in 2014 except in the economies of the English-speaking Caribbean.

The looser monetary policy stance reflects the importance placed by the region’s authorities on preventing a further slowdown in their economies and the possibility that inflationary pressures could ease in the near future, in view of the recent trend in energy prices and the potential impact of expectations of lower growth in aggregate domestic demand.

This monetary policy slant has led to a marked reduction in lending rates in the inflation-targeting economies (except Brazil), in the English-speaking Caribbean and, to a lesser extent, in Central America. In the South American economies without an inflation target, average lending rates were higher than in 2013, though they did fall in absolute terms over the year, as in the rest of region.

However, despite the monetary stimulus and declining interest rates, growth in domestic credit to the private sector continued to slow in 2014. The exception was the South American economies, where this variable picked up somewhat, especially in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.

Figure VI.8

Latin America and the Caribbean: monetary base, first quarter of 2010 to third quarter of 2014 a

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Average annualized quarterly growth rates.

b Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama.

c Argentina, Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Ecuador, Paraguay, Plurinational State of Bolivia and Uruguay.

Figure VI.9

Latin America and the Caribbean: average lending rates by subregion, January 2010 to September 2014

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama.

b Argentina, Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Ecuador, Paraguay, Plurinational State of Bolivia and Uruguay.

c Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru.

The prevailing conditions in international financial markets, particularly the announcements of monetary policy “normalization” in the United States, heightened exchange-rate volatility in the region and resulted in the depreciation of some currencies under flexible exchange-rate regimes. The Brazilian real, the Chilean peso and the Colombian peso continued to reflect the volatility seen since late 2013, when the United States Federal Reserve announced the tapering of its liquidity injection programme. The real, the Colombian peso and the nuevo sol depreciated by about 3% between September 2013 and September 2014. In the same period, the Mexican peso went down by 1.4% and the Chilean peso by 18%.

Figure VI.10

Latin America and the Caribbean: annualized growth in domestic lending to the private sector, January 2008 to July 2014

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras and Nicaragua.

b Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru.

c Ecuador, El Salvador and Panama.

d Argentina, Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Paraguay, Plurinational State of Bolivia and Uruguay.

Figure VI.11

Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru: nominal exchange rate, 2011-2014 a

(Index: 2005=100)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The data for the final quarter of 2014 are estimates.

These exchange-rate developments, together with the pace of inflation in the region’s economies, resulted in an appreciation of the real effective extraregional exchange rate, especially in the economies of South America.

In response to these developments, authorities in the region drew on international reserves in order to mitigate exchange-rate volatility. The central banks of Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Peru and Trinidad and Tobago, among other economies, intervened in the currency markets in an effort to ease depreciation, while authorities in other economies, including Colombia, maintained their foreign-currency purchase programmes, thus boosting their reserve position.

In spite of these efforts to reduce exchange-rate volatility, the level of international reserves rose from US$ 830 billion in December 2013 to US$ 861 billion in October 2014. Nevertheless, the pace of reserve accumulation in 2014 was considerably slower than in the period before 2012.

Figure VI.12

Latin America and the Caribbean: real effective extraregional exchange rates, January 2011 to September 2014

(Index 2005=100)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

Figure VI.13

Latin America and the Caribbean: international reserves, 2000-2014 a

(Billions of dollars and percentages of GDP)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The figures for 2014 are for October and contain preliminary data.

Reserves edged up from 14.0% of GDP in 2013 to 14.2% in 2014, but remained below the late-2012 level of 14.5%. Considerable reserve gains were posted by Jamaica (49.4%), Ecuador (37.7%), Paraguay (19.2%), Belize (18.3%) and El Salvador (16.3%). Smaller rises were seen in Nicaragua (9.0%), Uruguay (8.8%), Colombia (8.0%), Mexico (7.3%) and Brazil (4.7%). By contrast, international reserves continued to shrink in 2014 in Guyana (18.9%), Suriname (14.6%), Barbados (10.6%), Argentina (10.4%) and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (4.7%), though at a marginally slower pace than in 2013.

The countries of the region continued to strengthen financial sector regulation and oversight and adapt their management of reserves and capital flows to the new external context. Between December 2013 and October 2014 several changes were made to macroprudential regulations with respect to the following areas, among others: (1) legal reserve requirements on bank deposits in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Brazil, Peru and the Plurinational State of Bolivia; (2) minimum capital requirements for financial institutions in Brazil and Nicaragua; (3) investment limits on the basis of residency or currency criteria in Argentina, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Peru and Uruguay; and (4) the regulatory framework of the financial system in Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago.

Figure VI.14

Latin America and the Caribbean (26 countries): variation in international reserves, 2013 and 2014 a

(Percentages)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Change over December of the previous year. The figures for 2014 are from January to September.

Other macroprudential policies have been applied to complement and reinforce the signals sent by the authorities using the more traditional policy instruments, in order to stabilize the currency market and prevent further economic slowdown. These include swap operations by the central bank of Brazil to mitigate the volatility of the real without drawing down reserves —at least in the short term. In late September 2014, Brazil had accumulated a short position of US$ 97 billion through these currency swaps, equivalent to more than a quarter of gross international reserves. In Argentina and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela measures were put in place to try to restore the exchange markets to normal and stem the heavy reserve losses that these two countries have experienced in recent years. In Argentina, apart from limiting direct intervention in the currency market, the authorities instructed private banks to reduce their foreign currency holdings and restricted the access of individuals and importers to dollars. In March 2014, the Government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela introduced a new currency exchange mechanism, the Alternative System for Foreign Currency Exchange (SICAD II), and embarked on a process of consolidating the foreign currency assets held by various public-sector entities. Lastly, the Brazilian authorities have made extensive use of macroprudential measures, especially in the second half of 2014, with a view to returning credit growth to positive figures. To that end, the central bank eased legal reserve requirements and minimum capital ratios for banks, which allowed them to use reserves to boost credit supply.

Chapter VII

Outlook for 2015 and challenges

In 2015 the global economy is expected to continue expanding at a moderate rate of about 3.1%. As in 2014, the pace of growth in the developed countries will be mixed, while growth in the emerging economies will continue to slow. China’s 2015 growth is forecast at about 7%, down from 7.3% in 2014.

Projections indicate a trend towards a moderate uptick in global growth, but a number of serious risks could threaten that outcome. In particular, its highly leveraged economies cast doubt on the eurozone’s ability to sustain growth. Inflation trends point to persistent risks of deflation and low growth in that part of the world. In turn, the situation in Japan could cut into exports from neighbouring countries, especially China, and erode global growth in 2015. In addition to economic factors, geopolitical elements, such as the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East, could hurt growth in 2015.

Beyond the uncertainty regarding the impact of global economic conditions on the region’s export potential, there are other risks associated with commodity prices and international financial dynamics. Certain commodity prices remain on a confirmed downtrend. The World Bank[18] estimates that average energy prices (hydrocarbons) will fall by 4.6% in 2015, compared with an estimated 2.5% decline in 2014, although the drop in prices towards the end of 2014 could ultimately lead to a greater year-on-year fall. The prices of agricultural products (food) are expected to fall by 1.1% in 2015, compared with 3.1% in 2014; while metal prices will go up by 1.2%, after contracting by 5.4% in 2014.

In the financial sphere, despite the uncertainties surrounding the withdrawal of monetary stimulus in the United States, no major changes or turmoil are expected in 2015. Although the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates towards the end of the year, United States monetary policy will remain accommodative. The European Central Bank is expected to maintain or expand its quantitative easing programme in the eurozone.

Global economic conditions impact the countries and subregions of Latin America and the Caribbean in a variety of ways. Overall, the region is projected to grow at an average of 2.2% in 2015 (see table VII.1), with rates differing, as in 2014, between countries and subregions: Central America, including the Spanish-speaking Caribbean and Haiti, will post growth of 4.1%; South America, 1.8%; and the English-speaking Caribbean, 2.2%.

Stimulating economic growth and reversing the slowdown poses broad challenges for the region in the current global conditions. Weak growth in the developed countries and modest expansion in the emerging economies, together with the post-crisis dynamics of world trade, suggest that boosting the region’s external demand will be a slow and difficult process, which will limit the contribution of exports to growth. Therefore, although international trade remains a source of opportunity, the region must redouble its efforts to build competitiveness in existing external markets and open up new ones.

In this context, regional integration processes can help to boost aggregate demand through trade integration. They can boost productivity and competitiveness through value chains and the integration of production and infrastructure. And, through financial integration, regional cooperation builds capacity to withstand external shocks.

Since the 2009 financial crisis, domestic demand has been the main driver of growth in the region, while net exports made a negative contribution to growth between 2010 and 2013. Against this backdrop, along with boosting its export potential, the region must sustain and increase domestic demand to reverse the slowdown. Loss of momentum in investment —a key component of domestic demand— has been one of the key factors behind the slowdown in many of the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean. That is why the primary challenge now facing the region’s countries in terms of boosting economic growth is to increase public and private investment rates.

Table VII.1

Latin America and the Caribbean: annual growth in gross domestic product, 2009-2015

(Percentages, on the basis of dollars at constant 2010 prices)

Country

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

2015 b

Argentina

0.1

9.1

8.6

0.9

2.9

-0.2

1.0

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

3.4

4.1

5.2

5.2

6.8

5.2

5.5

Brazil

-0.3

7.5

2.7

1.0

2.5

0.2

1.3

Chile

-1.0

5.8

5.8

5.4

4.1

1.8

3.0

Colombia

1.7

4.0

6.6

4.0

4.7

4.8

4.3

Costa Rica

-1.0

5.0

4.5

5.1

3.5

3.6

3.2

Cuba

1.5

2.4

2.8

3.0

2.7

1.1

3.0

Dominican Republic

0.9

8.3

2.9

2.7

4.6

6.0

5.0

Ecuador

0.6

3.5

7.8

5.1

4.6

4.0

3.8

El Salvador

-3.1

1.4

2.2

1.9

1.7

2.2

2.5

Guatemala

0.5

2.9

4.2

3.0

3.7

4.0

4.0

Haiti

3.1

-5.5

5.5

2.9

4.3

3.5

3.5

Honduras

-2.4

3.7

3.8

4.1

2.6

3.0

3.0

Mexico

-4.7

5.2

3.9

4.0

1.1

2.1

3.2

Nicaragua

-2.8

3.3

5.7

5.0

4.6

4.5

5.0

Panama

4.0

5.9

10.8

10.2

8.4

6.0

7.0

Paraguay

-4.0

13.1

4.3

-1.2

14.2

4.0

4.0

Peru

1.0

8.5

6.5

6.0

5.8

2.8

5.0

Uruguay

2.4

8.4

7.3

3.7

4.4

3.5

3.5

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

-3.2

-1.5

4.2

5.6

1.3

-3.0

-1.0

Latin America subtotal

-1.2

6.2

4.3

2.7

2.7

1.1

2.2

Antigua and Barbuda

-12.0

-7.1

-1.8

4.0

-0.1

2.7

2.5

Bahamas

-4.2

1.5

1.1

1.0

0.7

2.3

2.8

Barbados

-4.1

0.3

0.8

0.2

0.3

0.0

1.2

Belize

0.7

3.3

2.1

3.8

1.5

3.4

2.1

Dominica

-1.1

1.1

-0.1

-1.4

-0.9

1.1

1.3

Grenada

-6.6

-0.5

0.8

-1.2

2.4

1.3

1.7

Guyana

3.3

4.4

5.4

4.8

5.2

4.5

4.2

Jamaica

-4.4

-1.5

1.7

-0.6

0.6

1.2

1.6

Saint Kitts and Nevis

-5.6

-3.2

1.7

-1.2

4.2

2.8

3.9

Saint Lucia

0.6

-1.0

1.2

-1.6

-0.4

-1.4

0.5

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

-2.1

-3.4

-0.5

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.4

Suriname

3.0

5.2

5.3

3.0

2.9

3.5

3.6

Trinidad and Tobago

-4.4

0.2

-2.6

1.2

1.6

1.8

1.9

The Caribbean subtotal

-3.6

0.3

0.3

1.0

1.4

1.9

2.2

Latin America and the Caribbean

-1.3

6.1

4.2

2.6

2.7

1.1

2.2

Central America (9 countries) c

0.4

4.1

4.3

4.1

4.0

3.7

4.1

South America (10 countries) d

-0.3

6.7

4.4

2.2

3.0

0.7

1.8

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Estimates.

b Projections.

c Includes Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama.

d Includes: Argentina, Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Plurinational State of Bolivia and Uruguay.

Countries’ ability to promote public investment depends on their current fiscal position and their capacity to mobilize resources. As noted above, on average the region’s fiscal deficit has remained relatively stable and its external and domestic public debt levels, with the exception of the Caribbean, are relatively low. So, notwithstanding differences between countries, the region conceivably has the scope to expand public investment with a view to enhancing production capacity and competitiveness through infrastructure projects. This type of investment not only promotes productivity gains, but also serves as an incentive for private investment.

In countries with higher levels of public debt or financing difficulties, the weaker public accounts forecast for 2015 have prompted announcements of budget cuts for the year ahead. Spending containment measures should take into account the need to protect investment and avoid vicious circles whereby fiscal overadjustments strangle growth and tax revenues, ultimately widening the deficit and increasing the public debt burden.

Treating greater public or public-enterprise investment as central to boosting overall investment poses new challenges in terms of countercyclical architecture in Latin America and the Caribbean. The region has made good progress on countercyclical policies to smooth public revenue flows in the event of cyclical changes in the sources of fiscal income. This development has been crucial to sustaining economic growth and should be pursued further. At the same time, the countercyclical architecture needs to include mechanisms to ensure that investment —as an increasingly key variable of economic performance and growth— can be financed at the different phases of the cycle.

Strengthening the investment component not only helps mobilize domestic demand in the short term and promote growth, but is also the main bridge between the challenges of the economic cycle and medium- and long-term growth and development. In this context, development macroeconomics should aim not only to smooth economic cycles, but also to enhance production development and structural change by armour-plating investment growth over time.

Statistical annex

Table A-1

Latin America and the Caribbean: main economic indicators

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

Annual growth rates

Gross domestic product b

4.5

5.4

5.8

4.0

-1.3

6.1

4.2

2.6

2.7

1.1

Latin America b

3.2

4.1

4.5

2.8

-2.4

5.0

3.1

1.5

1.7

0.1

Consumer prices c

6.1

5.1

6.5

8.1

4.6

6.5

6.8

5.6

7.3

9.3

Percentages

Urban open unemployment

9.0

8.6

7.9

7.3

8.1

7.3

6.7

6.4

6.2

6.0

Total gross external debt / GDP d e

41.8

35.6

31.3

28.2

29.4

27.9

26.7

28.2

29.7

30.4

Total gross external debt / exports of goods and services

128.7

114.2

103.5

95.2

111.5

103.5

96.0

100.1

107.6

109.4

Balance of payments e

Millions of dollars

Current account balance

33 147

46 415

7 898

-37 082

-25 260

-61 115

-81 626

-108 068

-157 885

-147 473

Exports of goods f.o.b.

584 114

698 094

785 659

901 991

701 222

893 706

1 108 203

1 123 389

1 119 154

1 109 255

Imports of goods f.o.b.

508 839

606 505

722 402

864 189

650 000

845 153

1 036 909

1 081 150

1 107 387

1 096 701

Services trade balance

-10 221

-11 011

-17 515

-29 404

-31 191

-48 060

-66 574

-71 863

-77 394

-73 340

Income balance

-84 512

-98 141

-104 305

-112 549

-102 728

-122 994

-149 723

-140 828

-154 539

-151 198

Net current transfers

52 604

63 978

66 460

67 720

57 982

62 076

63 377

62 383

62 659

64 776

Capital and financial balance f

27 670

16 998

117 421

69 536

68 319

144 221

185 950

164 502

169 734

179 821

Net foreign direct investment

57 681

33 324

93 698

100 909

69 738

83 009

127 099

132 234

157 548

122 226

Other capital movements

-30 011

-16 325

23 723

-31 373

-1 419

61 212

58 850

32 268

12 185

57 595

Overall balance

60 677

63 629

124 830

38 268

45 135

83 719

104 028

56 058

14 242

32 432

Variation in reserve assets g

-39 644

-51 129

-127 084

-42 273

-50 634

-87 536

-106 423

-58 136

-15 421

-32 453

Other financing

-21 033

-12 500

2 253

4 005

5 499

3 816

2 395

1 084

614

22

Net transfer of resources

-77 875

-93 643

15 369

-39 008

-28 910

25 043

38 623

24 757

15 809

28 644

International reserves

262 257

319 025

459 238

512 374

567 070

655 672

773 910

835 727

830 009

866 601

Fiscal sector h

Percentages of GDP

Overall balance

-1.0

0.1

0.3

-0.4

-2.8

-1.8

-1.6

-2.0

-2.4

-2.7

Primary balance

1.4

2.3

2.2

1.2

-1.0

-0.2

0.1

-0.3

-0.6

-0.8

Total revenue

17.5

18.5

19.0

19.0

17.9

18.3

18.8

19.2

19.5

19.3

Tax revenue

13.4

13.9

14.4

14.3

13.7

13.9

14.5

15.0

15.1

15.4

Total expenditure

18.5

18.4

18.7

19.5

20.7

20.1

20.4

21.2

21.9

22.0

Capital expenditure

3.5

3.3

3.7

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.6

4.7

4.6

Central-government public debt

42.5

35.6

30.1

29.3

30.4

30.0

29.4

30.8

32.3

32.2

Public debt of the non-financial public-sector

45.2

38.1

32.7

31.8

33.1

32.5

31.7

33.1

34.8

34.4

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Preliminary figures.

b Based on official figures expressed in 2010 dollars.

c December-December variation.

d Estimates based on figures denominated in dollars at current prices.

e Does not include Cuba.

f Includes errors and omissions.

g A minus sign (-) indicates an increase in reserve assets.

h Coverage corresponds to the central government. Simple averages for 19 countries.

Table A-2

Latin America and the Caribbean: gross domestic product

(Annual growth rates)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America and the Caribbean b

4.5

5.4

5.8

4.0

-1.3

6.1

4.2

2.6

2.7

1.1

Latin America

4.5

5.4

5.8

4.0

-1.2

6.2

4.3

2.7

2.7

1.1

Argentina

9.2

8.4

8.0

3.1

0.1

9.1

8.6

0.9

2.9

-0.2

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

4.4

4.8

4.6

6.1

3.4

4.1

5.2

5.2

6.8

5.2

Brazil

3.2

4.0

6.1

5.2

-0.3

7.5

2.7

1.0

2.5

0.2

Chile

5.6

4.6

4.6

3.7

-1.0

5.8

5.8

5.4

4.1

1.8

Colombia

4.7

6.7

6.9

3.5

1.7

4.0

6.6

4.0

4.7

4.8

Costa Rica

5.9

8.8

7.9

2.7

-1.0

5.0

4.5

5.1

3.5

3.6

Cuba

11.2

12.1

7.3

4.1

1.5

2.4

2.8

3.0

2.7

1.1

Dominican Republic

9.3

10.7

8.5

3.1

0.9

8.3

2.9

2.7

4.6

6.0

Ecuador

5.3

4.4

2.2

6.4

0.6

3.5

7.9

5.2

4.6

4.0

El Salvador

3.6

3.9

3.8

1.3

-3.1

1.4

2.2

1.9

1.7

2.2

Guatemala

3.3

5.4

6.3

3.3

0.5

2.9

4.2

3.0

3.7

4.0

Haiti

1.8

2.3

3.3

0.8

3.1

-5.5

5.5

2.9

4.3

3.5

Honduras

6.1

6.6

6.2

4.2

-2.4

3.7

3.8

4.1

2.6

3.0

Mexico

3.1

5.0

3.2

1.4

-4.7

5.2

3.9

4.0

1.4

2.1

Nicaragua

4.3

4.2

5.3

2.9

-2.8

3.3

5.7

5.0

4.6

4.5

Panama

7.2

8.5

12.1

9.1

4.0

5.9

10.8

10.2

8.4

6.0

Paraguay

2.1

4.8

5.4

6.4

-4.0

13.1

4.3

-1.2

14.2

4.0

Peru

6.3

7.5

8.5

9.1

1.0

8.5

6.5

6.0

5.8

2.8

Uruguay

6.6

4.1

6.5

7.2

2.4

8.4

7.3

3.7

4.4

3.5

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

10.3

9.9

8.8

5.3

-3.2

-1.5

4.2

5.6

1.3

-3.0

The Caribbean

3.6

7.9

6.6

1.3

-3.6

0.3

0.3

1.0

1.4

1.9

Antigua and Barbuda

6.1

13.4

9.5

0.1

-12.0

-7.1

-1.8

4.0

-0.1

2.7

Bahamas

3.4

2.5

1.4

-2.3

-4.2

1.5

1.1

1.0

0.7

2.3

Barbados

4.0

5.7

1.7

0.3

-4.1

0.3

0.8

0.2

0.3

0.0

Belize

2.6

4.6

1.1

3.2

0.7

3.3

2.1

3.8

1.5

3.4

Dominica

-0.1

4.9

6.1

7.4

-1.1

1.1

-0.1

-1.4

-0.9

1.1

Grenada

13.3

-4.0

6.1

0.9

-6.6

-0.5

0.8

-1.2

2.4

1.3

Guyana

-2.0

5.1

7.0

2.0

3.3

4.4

5.4

4.8

5.2

4.5

Jamaica

0.9

2.9

17.1

-0.7

-4.4

-1.5

1.7

-0.6

0.6

1.2

Saint Kitts and Nevis

9.3

5.9

2.8

4.1

-5.6

-3.2

1.7

-1.2

4.2

2.8

Saint Lucia

-1.7

8.2

-0.5

3.5

0.6

-1.0

1.2

-1.6

-0.4

-1.4

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

2.5

7.7

3.3

1.6

-2.1

-3.4

-0.5

1.2

1.7

2.2

Suriname

7.2

11.4

5.1

4.1

3.0

5.2

5.3

3.0

2.9

3.5

Trinidad and Tobago

5.4

14.4

4.5

3.4

-4.4

0.2

-2.6

1.2

1.6

1.8

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Preliminary figures.

b Based on official figures expressed in dollars at constant 2010 prices.

Table A-3

Latin America and the Caribbean: per capita gross domestic product

(Annual growth rates)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America and the Caribbean b

3.2

4.1

4.5

2.8

-2.4

5.0

3.1

1.5

1.7

0.1

Latin America

3.2

4.1

4.5

2.8

-2.3

5.0

3.1

1.5

1.7

0.1

Argentina

8.2

7.4

7.1

2.2

-0.8

8.2

7.6

0.1

2.0

-1.0

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

2.5

3.0

2.8

4.4

1.7

2.5

3.6

3.6

5.2

3.8

Brazil

2.0

2.9

5.1

4.2

-1.2

6.6

1.9

0.2

1.7

-0.6

Chile

4.5

3.5

3.6

2.7

-2.0

4.8

4.9

4.5

3.2

0.9

Colombia

3.1

5.1

5.3

2.0

0.2

2.5

5.1

2.6

3.3

3.4

Costa Rica

4.1

7.0

6.2

1.2

-2.5

3.5

3.1

3.7

2.2

2.3

Cuba

11.0

12.0

7.2

4.1

1.5

2.4

2.8

3.0

2.8

1.1

Dominican Republic

7.7

9.1

7.0

1.7

-0.4

6.9

1.6

1.4

3.3

4.7

Ecuador

3.4

2.6

0.5

4.6

-1.1

1.8

6.1

3.5

3.0

2.4

El Salvador

3.2

3.5

3.4

0.8

-3.6

0.8

1.7

1.3

1.1

1.6

Guatemala

0.7

2.8

3.7

0.8

-1.9

0.4

1.7

0.5

1.2

1.6

Haiti

0.4

0.9

2.0

-0.4

1.8

-6.7

4.2

1.6

3.0

2.3

Honduras

4.0

4.5

4.1

2.2

-4.3

1.7

1.8

2.1

0.7

1.1

Mexico

1.8

3.7

1.9

0.1

-5.9

4.0

2.7

2.8

0.3

1.0

Nicaragua

3.0

2.8

4.0

1.6

-4.0

2.0

4.2

3.5

3.1

3.0

Panama

5.2

6.6

10.1

7.2

2.2

4.1

8.9

8.4

6.6

4.3

Paraguay

0.2

2.9

3.5

4.5

-5.6

11.2

2.6

-2.8

12.4

2.4

Peru

5.0

6.3

7.4

8.0

-0.0

7.3

5.3

4.7

4.5

1.6

Uruguay

6.6

3.9

6.3

6.8

2.0

8.1

7.0

3.3

4.0

3.1

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

8.4

8.0

6.9

3.5

-4.8

-3.0

2.6

4.0

-0.1

-4.4

The Caribbean

2.8

7.1

5.8

0.6

-4.2

-0.4

-0.3

0.3

0.7

1.2

Antigua and Barbuda

5.0

12.2

8.3

-1.0

-13.0

-8.1

-2.8

2.9

-1.1

1.7

Bahamas

1.3

0.5

-0.5

-4.1

-5.8

-0.2

-0.5

-0.5

-0.8

0.9

Barbados

3.5

5.2

1.2

-0.1

-4.6

-0.2

0.3

-0.3

-0.2

-0.5

Belize

-0.0

1.9

-1.4

0.6

-1.8

0.8

-0.4

1.3

-0.9

1.0

Dominica

-0.4

4.7

5.9

7.3

-1.3

0.8

-0.4

-1.8

-1.3

0.6

Grenada

12.9

-4.3

5.8

0.6

-6.9

-0.9

0.4

-1.5

2.0

0.9

Guyana

-2.5

4.5

6.3

1.3

2.6

3.7

4.8

4.2

4.7

4.0

Jamaica

0.3

2.3

16.6

-1.1

-4.8

-1.9

1.2

-1.1

0.0

0.7

Saint Kitts and Nevis

7.7

4.4

1.5

2.8

-6.7

-4.4

0.5

-2.4

3.0

1.7

Saint Lucia

-2.8

6.8

-1.9

1.9

-0.8

-2.3

0.2

-2.5

-1.2

-2.1

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

2.3

7.5

3.2

1.5

-2.2

-3.4

-0.5

1.2

1.7

2.2

Suriname

5.8

10.1

4.0

3.1

2.1

4.2

4.3

2.1

2.0

2.6

Trinidad and Tobago

4.8

13.8

3.9

2.9

-4.8

-0.2

-2.9

0.9

1.4

1.6

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Preliminary figures.

b Based on official figures expressed in dollars at constant 2010 prices.

Table A-4

Latin America and the Caribbean: gross fixed capital formation a

(Percentages of GDP)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 b

Latin America and the Caribbean

17.0

18.0

19.1

20.3

18.9

19.9

20.7

20.6

20.4

19.3

Argentina

15.8

17.1

18.0

18.9

16.1

17.9

19.5

18.3

18.3

17.2

Bahamas

23.1

27.8

26.6

24.7

24.3

24.0

25.6

26.7

26.1

…

Belize

20.2

19.6

20.0

24.9

20.1

15.3

14.9

15.7

18.1

...

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

12.8

13.4

14.4

16.1

16.1

16.6

19.5

18.8

19.9

20.4

Brazil

15.1

15.9

17.1

18.4

17.2

19.5

19.8

18.9

19.3

18.0

Chile

18.7

18.3

19.4

22.4

19.9

21.1

22.8

24.3

23.4

21.1

Colombia

17.8

19.6

21.0

22.3

21.7

21.9

24.4

24.5

24.8

25.9

Costa Rica

18.2

18.6

20.3

22.0

19.7

19.8

20.7

21.2

22.9

23.0

Cuba

7.8

10.0

9.6

9.9

9.1

8.6

8.8

9.1

9.4

...

Dominican Republic

23.1

25.3

26.3

27.1

22.9

25.0

23.6

22.3

21.3

21.1

Ecuador

21.7

21.8

22.1

24.1

23.1

24.6

26.1

27.4

29.0

29.5

El Salvador

15.1

16.3

16.9

15.8

13.2

13.3

14.8

14.3

15.5

15.2

Guatemala

18.2

20.0

19.7

18.0

15.6

14.8

15.2

15.3

15.0

14.6

Haiti

25.2

25.2

25.1

25.6

25.7

25.4

26.4

27.2

27.7

…

Honduras

26.2

27.9

32.7

33.3

22.1

21.6

24.3

24.2

24.6

22.6

Mexico

21.0

21.7

22.3

23.1

22.0

21.2

21.9

22.1

21.5

21.1

Nicaragua

22.7

22.2

23.9

24.1

19.5

18.4

20.8

23.6

22.3

20.2

Panama

13.5

14.5

18.3

23.0

26.5

24.6

24.5

26.1

27.5

29.8

Paraguay

13.0

12.9

13.7

15.2

14.7

15.9

16.9

15.8

15.4

15.4

Peru

15.0

16.6

18.7

21.9

20.4

23.2

23.9

25.9

25.8

25.5

Trinidad and Tobago

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

Uruguay

16.3

17.9

18.3

20.4

19.0

19.9

19.7

22.7

23.1

22.8

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

15.7

18.5

21.3

20.7

19.6

18.7

18.7

21.9

16.2

12.5

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Based on official figures expressed in dollars at constant 2010 prices.

b Preliminary figures.

Table A-5

Latin America and the Caribbean: balance of payments

(Millions of dollars)

Exports of goods f.o.b.

Exports of services

Imports of goods f.o.b.

Imports of services

2012

2013

2014 a

2012

2013

2014 a

2012

2013

2014 a

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America

and the Caribbean

1 123 389

1 119 154

1 109 255

144 944

149 651

156 053

1 081 150

1 107 387

1 096 701

216 807

227 045

229 393

Latin America

1 101 646

1 099 011

1 090 465

130 939

136 678

143 831

1 054 188

1 082 747

1 070 940

205 911

216 390

220 731

Argentina

80 246

81 660

73 255

15 314

14 424

13 577

65 088

70 541

63 245

18 388

18 544

17 068

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

11 254

11 657

12 741

1 006

1 046

1 067

8 578

9 338

10 490

1 348

1 555

1 749

Brazil

242 578

242 034

232 669

39 864

39 127

42 575

223 183

239 634

230 577

80 905

86 224

92 455

Chile

77 965

76 684

76 427

12 456

12 787

12 385

75 458

74 568

67 365

14 732

15 694

15 416

Colombia

61 447

59 992

59 426

5 264

5 762

6 015

56 703

57 160

61 656

10 767

11 232

11 860

Costa Rica

11 454

11 554

11 366

5 465

6 048

6 497

16 836

17 178

16 687

2 037

2 018

2 147

Dominican Republic

8 936

9 432

9 922

6 140

6 554

7 192

17 673

16 801

17 208

2 939

2 990

3 072

Ecuador

24 569

25 686

27 134

1 807

2 029

2 186

24 519

26 331

26 607

3 198

3 530

3 449

El Salvador

4 235

4 334

4 147

1 859

2 068

2 203

9 162

9 629

9 325

1 351

1 484

1 504

Guatemala

10 103

10 190

11 054

2 491

2 561

2 780

15 838

16 356

17 236

2 413

2 619

2 861

Haiti

779

884

865

549

652

655

3 079

3 329

3 507

1 116

1 090

1 157

Honduras

8 359

7 806

8 040

1 056

1 033

1 095

11 371

10 953

11 221

1 647

1 692

1 732

Mexico

371 442

380 741

399 449

16 146

20 116

21 628

371 151

381 638

398 375

30 708

32 128

34 759

Nicaragua

4 146

4 123

4 542

862

877

935

6 442

6 402

6 469

922

933

990

Panama

18 857

17 160

15 196

9 302

9 851

11 033

25 272

24 136

22 462

4 606

4 792

4 800

Paraguay

11 654

13 605

14 252

756

842

926

11 083

11 942

11 908

927

1 070

1 161

Peru

46 367

42 177

37 308

4 915

5 814

5 989

41 135

42 217

41 201

7 335

7 615

7 761

Uruguay

9 916

10 294

10 757

3 482

3 287

3 312

12 277

11 596

11 676

2 408

3 180

3 257

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

97 340

89 000

81 915

2 205

1 800

1 780

59 339

53 000

43 725

18 164

18 000

13 532

The Caribbean

21 744

20 143

18 790

14 005

12 973

12 222

26 962

24 639

25 761

10 895

10 656

8 662

Antigua and Barbuda

63

68

60

484

482

495

492

503

513

210

218

233

Bahamas

984

955

887

2 691

2 548

2 608

3 385

3 166

3 451

1 538

1 628

1 695

Barbados

826

...

...

1 128

...

...

1 688

...

...

486

...

...

Belize

626

609

550

407

448

492

837

876

887

188

208

206

Dominica

39

41

41

122

134

143

183

179

173

67

65

67

Grenada

43

45

45

164

169

189

300

324

308

95

100

99

Guyana

1 415

1 376

1 236

298

165

148

1 997

1 847

1 709

526

500

461

Jamaica

1 747

1 597

1 900

2 674

2 756

2 930

5 905

5 573

6 000

2 035

2 157

2 000

Saint Kitts and Nevis

63

56

62

202

253

266

235

252

278

116

128

135

Saint Lucia

212

178

178

391

408

437

566

546

530

185

190

190

Saint Vincent

and the Grenadines

48

54

54

143

131

134

314

328

329

87

94

95

Suriname

2 695

2 394

2 452

175

179

182

1 994

2 174

2 227

594

542

552

Trinidad and Tobago

12 983

12 770

11 325

5 127

5 301

4 195

9 065

8 871

9 357

4 768

4 827

2 928

Goods and services balance

Income balance

Current transfers balance

Current account balance

2012

2013

2014 a

2012

2013

2014 a

2012

2013

2014 a

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America

and the Caribbean

-29 623

-66 006

-61 050

-140 828

-154 539

-151 198

62 383

62 659

64 776

-108 068

-157 885

-147 473

Latin America

-27 515

-63 448

-57 375

-136 115

-151 002

-147 143

59 596

59 812

62 159

-104 034

-154 637

-142 358

Argentina

12 083

7 000

6 518

-12 761

-10 981

-10 926

-489

-832

-419

-1 167

-4 813

-4 827

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

2 334

1 811

1 569

-1 629

-1 908

-2 020

1 266

1 270

1 271

1 970

1 173

820

Brazil

-21 647

-44 697

-47 788

-35 448

-39 778

-38 916

2 846

3 366

3 301

-54 249

-81 108

-83 404

Chile

231

-791

6 031

-11 503

-11 102

-10 710

2 191

2 408

1 941

-9 081

-9 485

-2 739

Colombia

-759

-2 638

-8 074

-15 654

-14 656

-14 343

4 579

4 572

4 037

-11 834

-12 722

-18 379

Costa Rica

-1 954

-1 594

-971

-801

-1 152

-1 155

333

294

303

-2 422

-2 452

-1 823

Dominican Republic

-5 536

-3 805

-3 166

-2 344

-2 842

-2 903

3 909

4 154

4 478

-3 971

-2 493

-1 592

Ecuador

-1 341

-2 146

-736

-1 302

-1 445

-1 443

2 480

2 399

2 324

-163

-1 192

146

El Salvador

-4 419

-4 711

-4 479

-890

-966

-999

4 021

4 100

4 448

-1 288

-1 577

-1 030

Guatemala

-5 657

-6 224

-6 262

-1 298

-1 239

-1 256

5 645

5 998

6 542

-1 310

-1 465

-976

Haiti

-2 868

-2 883

-3 143

68

57

58

2 368

2 283

2 397

-431

-543

-687

Honduras

-3 603

-3 806

-3 817

-1 266

-1 353

-1 360

3 288

3 395

3 703

-1 581

-1 764

-1 475

Mexico

-14 271

-12 910

-12 058

-23 718

-35 684

-34 632

22 559

22 110

23 528

-15 431

-26 485

-23 161

Nicaragua

-2 356

-2 335

-1 982

-301

-313

-314

1 310

1 369

1 459

-1 347

-1 280

-837

Panama

-1 719

-1 918

-1 034

-1 897

-3 064

-3 093

88

63

-12

-3 528

-4 920

-4 138

Paraguay

401

1 435

2 109

-1 391

-1 502

-1 490

759

688

715

-231

621

1 334

Peru

2 812

-1 841

-5 665

-12 399

-10 631

-10 024

3 307

3 346

3 288

-6 281

-9 126

-12 401

Uruguay

-1 287

-1 194

-865

-1 534

-1 943

-1 997

115

131

134

-2 706

-3 006

-2 728

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

22 042

19 800

26 438

-10 048

-10 500

-9 620

-978

-1 300

-1 278

11 016

8 000

15 540

The Caribbean

-2 108

-2 558

-3 676

-4 713

-3 537

-4 055

2 787

2 847

2 617

-4 034

-3 248

-5 114

Antigua and Barbuda

-155

-171

-190

-51

-31

-39

30

26

29

-176

-176

-201

Bahamas

-1 248

-1 291

-1 651

-268

-329

-242

11

7

-2

-1 505

-1 613

-1 894

Barbados

-219

-379

-265

-172

-389

-435

-31

-26

-54

-423

-794

-753

Belize

7

-27

-51

-118

-118

-167

76

73

77

-35

-72

-141

Dominica

-90

-68

-56

-18

-20

-20

17

20

21

-91

-68

-56

Grenada

-189

-210

-173

-34

-30

-22

30

18

18

-193

-221

-176

Guyana

-810

-807

-786

24

29

-14

419

353

440

-367

-425

-360

Jamaica

-3 519

-3 377

-3 170

-434

-225

-305

2 048

2 217

2 000

-1 905

-1 386

-1 475

Saint Kitts and Nevis

-87

-71

-84

-24

-23

-28

45

45

45

-66

-49

-67

Saint Lucia

-148

-151

-104

-35

-25

-21

6

5

5

-177

-171

-121

Saint Vincent

and the Grenadines

-211

-236

-236

-4

0

-0

24

14

14

-191

-222

-223

Suriname

283

-142

-145

-191

-122

-125

73

67

68

164

-198

-202

Trinidad and Tobago

4 277

4 373

3 235

-3 387

-2 254

-2 638

39

28

-43

929

2 147

554

Capital and financial balance b

Overall balance

Reserve assets (variation) c

Other financing

2012

2013

2014 a

2012

2013

2014 a

2012

2013

2014 a

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America

and the Caribbean

164 502

169 734

179 821

56 058

14 242

32 432

-58 136

-15 421

-32 453

1 084

614

22

Latin America

161 219

168 718

174 043

57 184

14 080

31 685

-59 220

-15 217

-31 685

1 041

572

0

Argentina

-2 138

-7 010

2 327

-3 305

-11 824

-2 500

3 305

11 824

2 500

0

0

0

Bolivia

(Plurinational State of)

-258

-51

227

1 712

1 122

1 047

-1 712

-1 122

-1 047

0

0

0

Brazil

73 148

75 182

97 580

18 900

-5 926

14 177

-18 900

5 926

-14 177

0

0

0

Chile

8 714

9 796

1 626

-367

311

-1 113

367

-311

1 113

0

0

0

Colombia

17 257

19 679

22 284

5 423

6 957

3 904

-5 423

-6 957

-3 904

0

0

0

Costa Rica

4 532

2 913

1 519

2 110

461

-304

-2 110

-461

304

0

0

0

Dominican Republic

3 530

3 834

1 698

-440

1 341

106

548

-1 146

-106

-108

-249

0

Ecuador

-418

3 038

1 574

-582

1 846

1 719

475

-1 878

-1 719

107

32

0

El Salvador

1 939

1 250

1 279

651

-327

248

-651

327

-248

0

0

0

Guatemala

1 808

2 168

1 109

499

702

132

-499

-702

-132

0

0

0

Haiti

-299

-175

130

-730

-719

-557

-286

-59

557

1 016

778

0

Honduras

1 290

2 243

1 723

-291

479

248

283

-485

-248

8

6

0

Mexico

32 955

44 274

37 812

17 524

17 789

14 651

-17 524

-17 789

-14 651

0

0

0

Nicaragua

1 332

1 375

1 049

-15

96

212

15

-96

-212

0

0

0

Panama

2 570

4 810

4 821

-958

-109

683

-36

-402

-683

0

0

0

Paraguay

207

415

-187

-24

1 036

1 147

25

-1 036

-1 147

-0

0

0

Peru

21 069

12 028

9 896

14 788

2 902

-2 505

-14 806

-2 907

2 505

19

5

0

Uruguay

5 993

5 951

4 245

3 287

2 945

1 517

-3 287

-2 945

-1 517

0

0

0

Venezuela

(Bolivarian Republic of)

-12 012

-13 000

-16 667

-996

-5 000

-1 128

996

5 000

1 128

0

0

0

The Caribbean

3 283

1 016

5 778

-1 126

162

747

1 084

-204

-768

43

42

22

Antigua and Barbuda

187

218

196

11

42

-4

-11

-42

4

0

0

0

Bahamas

1 430

1 545

1 930

-75

-69

36

75

69

-36

0

0

-0

Barbados

398

481

649

-25

-314

-105

25

314

105

0

0

0

Belize

180

-79

213

145

117

72

-145

-114

-72

0

-4

0

Dominica

97

61

63

6

-6

7

-6

6

-7

0

0

0

Grenada

191

253

176

-2

31

-1

2

-31

1

0

0

0

Guyana

700

199

125

33

-119

-152

-76

74

130

43

45

22

Jamaica

518

-812

2 089

-839

-179

614

839

179

-614

0

0

0

Saint Kitts and Nevis

90

89

130

24

40

62

-24

-40

-62

0

0

0

Saint Lucia

193

132

146

16

-40

26

-16

40

-26

0

0

0

Saint Vincent

and the Grenadines

212

246

235

21

24

12

-21

-24

-12

0

0

0

Suriname

16

46

47

180

-152

-155

-180

152

155

0

0

0

Trinidad and Tobago

-929

-1 361

-221

-622

786

334

622

-786

-334

0

0

0

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Preliminary figures.

b Includes errors and omissions.

c A minus sign (-) indicates an increase in reserve assets.

Table A-6

Latin America and the Caribbean: international trade of goods

(Indices 2010=100)

Exports of goods. f.o.b.

Value

Volume

Unit value

2012

2013

2014 a

2012

2013

2014 a

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America

125.7

125.4

124.5

108.5

111.1

113.0

115.9

112.9

110.1

Argentina

117.7

119.8

107.4

98.3

102.2

92.0

119.8

117.2

116.7

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

175.8

182.1

199.0

140.4

148.0

154.2

125.2

123.1

129.0

Brazil

120.1

119.9

115.2

102.7

106.2

106.3

116.9

112.9

108.4

Chile

109.6

107.8

107.5

105.4

109.1

111.1

104.0

98.8

96.7

Colombia

150.5

147.0

145.6

122.4

127.1

129.5

123.0

115.6

112.4

Costa Rica

120.4

121.4

119.4

117.4

120.3

119.1

102.5

100.9

100.3

Dominican Republic

131.1

138.4

145.6

122.6

135.4

143.8

106.9

102.2

101.3

Ecuador

135.5

141.6

149.6

110.3

115.8

122.6

122.8

122.3

122.0

El Salvador

121.9

124.8

119.4

114.7

118.6

111.0

106.3

105.2

107.6

Guatemala

118.4

119.4

129.5

111.8

117.5

128.5

105.8

101.6

100.8

Haiti

138.2

156.9

153.6

122.8

147.1

141.3

112.6

106.6

108.7

Honduras

133.4

124.6

128.3

123.3

125.9

129.4

108.3

98.9

99.2

Mexico

124.3

127.4

133.7

110.3

113.4

120.3

112.7

112.4

111.1

Nicaragua

151.1

150.2

165.5

133.7

146.6

164.0

113.0

102.5

100.9

Panama

148.8

135.4

119.9

137.1

126.7

111.9

108.5

106.9

107.1

Paraguay

111.3

129.9

136.1

97.4

115.3

122.1

114.2

112.6

111.4

Peru

129.5

117.8

104.2

108.0

105.9

99.7

119.9

111.2

104.5

Uruguay

123.5

128.2

134.0

103.9

109.0

112.3

118.8

117.6

119.3

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

148.1

135.4

124.6

110.8

103.4

103.6

133.6

130.9

120.3

Imports of goods. f.o.b.

Value

Volume

Unit value

2012

2013

2014 a

2012

2013

2014 a

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America

127.9

131.3

129.9

115.7

119.6

118.5

110.5

109.8

109.6

Argentina

120.2

130.2

116.8

106.6

111.2

99.6

112.7

117.1

117.2

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

153.5

167.0

187.7

140.6

153.1

173.8

109.1

109.1

108.0

Brazil

122.8

131.8

126.9

106.7

115.9

112.9

115.1

113.7

112.4

Chile

136.3

134.7

121.7

124.3

125.6

115.8

109.6

107.2

105.0

Colombia

147.4

148.6

160.2

134.1

136.4

148.1

109.9

108.9

108.2

Costa Rica

130.0

132.6

128.8

121.4

126.2

123.7

107.0

105.1

104.1

Dominican Republic

116.2

110.5

113.1

101.9

98.9

104.5

114.0

111.7

108.3

Ecuador

124.8

134.1

135.5

113.5

124.0

125.4

110.0

108.1

108.0

El Salvador

122.2

128.5

124.4

111.1

117.5

115.2

110.0

109.3

108.0

Guatemala

123.7

127.7

134.6

109.4

115.3

124.2

113.0

110.7

108.4

Haiti

102.3

110.6

116.5

78.1

83.6

89.0

131.0

132.3

130.9

Honduras

127.7

123.0

126.0

111.6

110.1

113.1

114.4

111.7

111.3

Mexico

123.0

126.5

132.0

114.6

118.1

121.8

107.3

107.1

108.4

Nicaragua

143.3

142.4

143.9

126.3

127.0

130.5

113.5

112.2

110.3

Panama

146.8

140.2

130.5

132.8

128.1

120.1

110.5

109.4

108.6

Paraguay

115.5

124.5

124.1

104.6

113.6

113.5

110.5

109.6

109.3

Peru

142.8

146.5

143.0

127.6

134.6

131.7

111.9

108.9

108.5

Uruguay

143.5

135.5

136.4

127.6

123.8

126.5

112.4

109.4

107.9

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

153.7

137.3

113.2

139.6

124.7

102.6

110.1

110.1

110.3

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Preliminary estimates.

Table A-7

Latin America: terms of trade for goods f.o.b./f.o.b

(Indices 2010=100)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America

86.2

92.6

95.2

98.5

90.0

100.0

107.7

104.9

102.8

100.5

Argentina

84.4

89.6

92.9

105.2

100.4

100.0

106.7

106.3

100.1

99.6

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

71.0

88.7

90.1

91.3

88.4

100.0

111.0

114.8

112.8

119.5

Brazil

79.3

83.5

85.2

88.3

86.2

100.0

107.9

101.6

99.3

96.5

Chile

68.5

89.8

92.9

80.8

81.7

100.0

100.6

94.9

92.2

92.1

Colombia

82.6

85.8

92.6

102.8

88.4

100.0

111.8

111.9

106.2

103.9

Costa Rica

108.9

105.7

104.7

100.8

104.1

100.0

96.3

95.8

96.1

96.3

Dominican Republic

98.2

97.3

100.5

96.0

103.8

100.0

94.7

93.8

91.5

93.5

Ecuador

84.8

91.0

93.5

102.6

90.8

100.0

110.0

111.7

113.1

113.0

El Salvador

105.9

104.5

103.5

100.6

103.9

100.0

100.0

96.6

96.2

99.7

Guatemala

98.7

96.9

95.1

92.6

100.5

100.0

99.1

93.7

91.8

93.0

Haiti

118.9

114.4

111.2

79.9

103.4

100.0

83.0

86.0

80.6

83.1

Honduras

103.6

98.8

97.0

91.1

97.3

100.0

108.4

94.6

88.6

89.1

Mexico

102.4

102.9

103.8

104.6

92.9

100.0

107.2

105.0

104.9

102.5

Nicaragua

97.8

95.4

94.5

90.4

99.1

100.0

99.6

99.6

91.4

91.5

Panama

105.9

102.9

101.9

97.3

101.9

100.0

97.8

98.2

97.7

98.6

Paraguay

92.8

91.0

95.3

102.3

100.0

100.0

102.4

103.4

102.8

101.9

Peru

78.3

99.7

103.4

89.6

84.7

100.0

112.7

107.2

102.1

96.3

Uruguay

90.7

88.6

88.7

94.1

96.9

100.0

101.8

105.7

107.5

110.6

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

71.5

85.4

93.6

115.5

84.1

100.0

120.2

121.4

118.9

109.0

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Preliminary estimates.

Table A-8

Latin America and the Caribbean (selected countries): remittances from emigrant workers

(Millions of dollars)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

304

569

1 020

1 097

1 023

939

1 012

1 094

1 182

758 a

Brazil

2 479

2 890

2 809

2 913

2 224

2 189

2 134

1 990

1 944

1 406 b

Colombia

3 314

3 861

4 430

4 785

4 090

3 996

4 064

3 970

4 071

2 098 c

Costa Rica

400

490

596

584

489

505

487

527

561

269 d

Dominican Republic e

…

…

…

…

…

3 683

4 008

4 045

4 262

2 261 d

Ecuador

…

…

3 335

3 083

2 736

2 591

2 672

2 467

2 450

1 201 d

El Salvador

3 017

3 471

3 695

3 742

3 387

3 455

3 628

3 894

3 953

3 153 b

Guatemala

2 993

3 610

4 128

4 315

3 912

4 127

4 378

4 783

5 105

4 650 f

Honduras

1 719

2 252

2 510

2 707

2 403

2 526

2 750

2 842

3 093

2 507 b

Jamaica

1 621

1 770

1 964

2 021

1 792

1 906

2 025

2 037

2 065

1 238 c

Mexico

21 688

25 567

26 059

25 145

21 306

21 304

22 803

22 438

21 892

19 629 f

Nicaragua

616

698

740

818

768

823

912

1 014

1 078

835 b

Paraguay

81

101

198

202

201

274

451

528

519

268 a

Peru

1 440

1 837

2 131

2 444

2 409

2 534

2 697

2 788

2 707

1 952 b

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Figures as of August.

b Figures as of September.

c Figures as of July.

d Figures as of June.

e New methodology according to the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

f Figures as of October.

Table A-9

Latin America and the Caribbean: net resource transfer a

(Millions of dollars)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 b

Latin America

and the Caribbean

-77 875

-93 643

15 369

-39 008

-28 910

25 043

38 623

24 757

15 809

28 644

Latin America

-76 479

-89 291

16 898

-30 954

-26 345

28 248

40 169

26 144

18 288

26 900

Argentina

-3 722

-10 388

-198

-14 317

-16 154

-8 304

-16 239

-14 899

-17 992

-8 600

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

-434

-175

-43

-154

-1 094

-707

923

-1 888

-1 959

-1 793

Brazil

-35 633

-10 553

56 642

-9 401

37 269

56 887

63 791

37 701

35 404

58 664

Chile

-10 541

-23 481

-29 153

-1 352

-13 265

-15 244

3 339

-2 789

-1 306

-9 084

Colombia

-1 846

-2 896

2 776

-669

-2 857

41

-2 443

1 602

5 023

7 941

Costa Rica

1 166

2 058

1 929

2 022

-247

1 097

1 772

3 731

1 761

364

Cuba

-633

-618

-960

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

Dominican Republic

-319

-221

665

2 462

1 218

3 167

2 523

1 079

743

-1 205

Ecuador

-1 580

-3 691

-2 138

-2 246

-2 264

-625

-664

-1 614

1 626

131

El Salvador

-59

375

1 040

1 477

179

-302

79

1 049

284

279

Guatemala

995

1 096

1 159

809

-902

29

154

511

928

-147

Haiti

343

573

688

374

373

971

573

786

659

188

Honduras

177

149

612

1 531

-428

546

521

33

896

363

Mexico

2 498

-9 698

2 423

8 201

-1 921

12 579

21 204

9 237

8 589

3 180

Nicaragua

590

815

1 186

1 313

946

837

1 104

1 031

1 062

735

Panama

418

-1 198

925

1 562

-664

1 223

2 854

673

1 746

1 728

Paraguay

-1 161

-1 101

-1 046

-915

-767

-1 036

-603

-1 184

-1 087

-1 677

Peru

-4 596

-7 681

-165

-288

-6 728

3 531

-5 495

8 688

1 402

-127

Uruguay

84

-52

710

3 045

929

-1 131

2 320

4 459

4 008

2 248

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

-22 225

-22 603

-20 155

-24 408

-19 968

-25 312

-35 543

-22 060

-23 500

-26 287

The Caribbean

-1 395

-4 352

-1 529

-8 055

-2 565

-3 205

-1 546

-1 387

-2 479

1 744

Antigua and Barbuda

137

260

333

292

108

146

88

136

187

157

Bahamas

57

787

723

903

909

606

991

1 163

1 216

1 688

Barbados

263

89

293

221

223

229

301

225

92

214

Belize

25

-51

-84

38

22

-88

-3

61

-201

46

Dominica

62

48

66

108

118

72

64

79

42

42

Grenada

138

203

211

201

160

154

177

157

223

154

Guyana

143

242

215

576

970

675

685

767

273

133

Jamaica

623

798

937

-3 921

-2 131

-3

1 222

85

-1 037

1 784

Saint Kitts and Nevis

23

70

89

183

172

142

143

66

66

102

Saint Lucia

40

268

295

257

125

195

231

158

106

125

Saint Vincent

and the Grenadines

70

106

168

204

189

221

163

208

246

235

Suriname

225

-211

-181

-96

-68

-720

-389

-175

-76

-78

Trinidad and Tobago

-3 200

-6 962

-4 594

-7 022

-3 362

-4 833

-5 220

-4 317

-3 615

-2 858

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a The net resource transfer is calculated as total net capital income minus the income balance (net payments of profits and interest).

Total net capital income is the balance on the capital and financial accounts plus errors and omissions, plus loans and the use of IMF credit plus exceptional financing. Negative figures indicate resources transferred outside the country.

b Preliminary figures.

Table A-10

Latin America and the Caribbean: net foreign direct investment a

(Millions of dollars)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 b

Latin America

and the Caribbean

57 681

33 324

93 698

100 909

69 738

83 009

127 099

132 234

157 548

122 226

Latin America

55 067

30 132

90 050

95 360

67 020

80 855

124 006

129 157

154 429

118 087

Argentina

3 954

3 099

4 969

8 335

3 307

10 368

9 352

13 889

10 256

2 945

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

-242

278

363

509

420

651

859

1 060

1 750

950

Brazil

12 550

-9 380

27 518

24 601

36 033

36 919

67 689

68 093

67 491

64 000

Chile

4 962

5 214

7 720

6 367

5 654

6 264

3 192

6 212

9 335

5 500

Colombia

5 590

5 558

8 136

8 110

3 789

-147

5 101

16 135

9 120

12 818

Costa Rica

904

1 371

1 634

2 072

1 339

1 441

2 121

1 904

2 424

1 881

Dominican Republic

1 123

1 085

1 667

2 870

2 165

1 622

2 277

3 142

1 990

1 920

Ecuador

493

271

194

1 058

308

165

644

585

728

600

El Salvador

398

267

1 455

824

366

-226

218

484

137

90

Guatemala

470

552

720

737

574

782

1 009

1 205

1 275

2 294

Haiti

26

161

75

30

55

178

119

156

186

99

Honduras

599

669

926

1 007

505

971

1 012

851

992

1 049

Mexico

18 234

15 132

23 953

27 528

8 383

10 848

10 992

-4 339

28 955

9 310

Nicaragua

241

266

366

607

463

491

961

761

741

775

Panama

918

2 547

1 899

2 147

1 259

2 363

2 956

3 254

4 373

2 325

Paraguay

36

114

202

209

95

216

557

480

382

670

Peru

2 579

3 467

5 425

6 188

5 165

7 062

7 518

11 840

9 161

6 860

Uruguay

811

1 495

1 240

2 117

1 512

2 349

2 511

2 689

2 769

3 000

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

1 422

-2 032

1 587

45

-4 374

-1 462

4 919

756

2 364

1 000

The Caribbean

2 614

3 191

3 647

5 548

2 718

2 153

3 093

3 077

3 119

4 138

Antigua and Barbuda

221

359

338

159

81

97

65

133

95

166

Bahamas

563

706

746

860

497

872

667

526

382

440

Barbados

119

200

256

264

240

...

701

426

...

...

Belize

126

108

139

167

108

96

94

195

89

109

Dominica

19

26

40

57

42

24

14

29

24

33

Grenada

70

90

157

135

103

60

43

31

113

32

Guyana

77

102

110

178

164

198

247

294

214

237

Jamaica

581

797

751

1 361

480

169

144

253

536

370

Saint Kitts and Nevis

93

110

134

178

131

116

110

108

136

118

Saint Lucia

78

234

272

161

146

121

81

74

92

70

Saint Vincent

and the Grenadines

40

109

119

159

110

97

86

115

160

137

Suriname

28

-163

-247

-231

-93

-248

73

120

138

141

Trinidad and Tobago

599

513

830

2 101

709

549

771

772

1 140

2 286

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Corresponds to direct investment in the reporting economy after deduction of outward direct investment by residents of that country. Includes reinvestment of profits.

b Preliminary figures.

Table A-11

Latin America and the Caribbean: gross external debt a

(Millions of dollars, end-of-period stocks)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Latin America

and the Caribbean

665 855

670 812

738 780

761 146

824 500

982 447

1 100 159

1 196 523

1 265 635

1 230 241

Latin America

653 787

658 163

725 879

747 764

810 274

965 816

1 082 768

1 178 831

1 247 543

1 211 007

Argentina

Total

105 748

114 007

125 548

124 711

116 698

130 819

143 171

141 108

141 076

147 853 b

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

Total

7 666

6 278

5 403

5 930

5 801

5 875

6 298

6 711

7 756

7 849 c

Brazil

Total

169 399

172 621

193 159

198 492

198 136

256 804

298 204

312 898

308 625

338 631 d

Chile

Total

46 211

49 497

55 733

64 318

74 041

86 738

98 895

117 569

130 724

137 416 d

Colombia

Total

38 507

40 103

44 553

46 369

53 719

64 723

75 903

78 763

91 923

93 868 e

Costa Rica

Total

6 763

7 191

8 444

9 105

8 238

9 135

10 919

14 509

17 654

18 679 b

Dominican Republic

Public

5 847

6 295

6 556

7 219

8 215

9 947

11 625

12 872

14 919

15 642 f

Ecuador

Total

17 237

17 099

17 445

16 900

13 514

13 914

15 210

15 913

18 672

22 971 d

El Salvador

Total

8 877

9 692

9 349

9 994

9 882

9 698

10 670

12 530

13 291

13 663 b

Guatemala

Total

8 832

9 844

10 909

11 163

11 248

12 026

14 021

15 339

17 493

18 260 b

Haiti

Public

1 335

1 484

1 628

1 917

1 278

353

727

1 173

1 474 g

…

Honduras

Total

5 135

3 935

3 190

3 464

3 345

3 773

4 188

4 844

6 642

6 729 h

Mexico

Total

128 248

119 084

128 090

129 424

165 932

197 727

209 743

228 764

261 039

279 000 b

Nicaragua

Public

5 348

4 527

3 385

3 512

3 661

4 068

4 263

4 481

4 724

4 724 d

Panama

Public

7 580

7 788

8 276

8 477

10 150

10 439

10 858

10 782

12 231

12 689 c

Paraguay

Total

2 571

2 618

2 731

3 124

3 044

3 621

3 864

4 580

5 131

5 324 c

Peru

Total

28 342

28 387

33 239

34 997

35 157

43 674

47 977

59 376

60 823

63 465 d

Uruguay

Total

13 717

12 977

14 864

15 425

17 969

18 425

18 345

21 122

22 862

24 244 b

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

Total

46 427

44 735

53 378

53 223

70 246

84 058

97 888

115 495

110 485 g

…

The Caribbean

Public

12 067

12 649

12 901

13 383

14 226

16 631

17 391

17 692

18 092

19 234

Antigua and Barbuda

Public

317

321

481

436

416

431

441

431

475

471 b

Bahamas

Public

287

289

273

384

703

728

800

1 043

1 186

1 484 d

Barbados

Public

777

958

997

989

1 198

1 359

1 382

1 325

1 436

1 438 d

Belize

Public

970

985

973

958

1 017

1 021

1 032

1 029

1 083

1 113 h

Dominica

Public

221

225

241

234

222

242

248

254

261

264 b

Grenada

Public

401

481

469

481

512

538

551

555

580

581 b

Guyana

Public

1 215

1 043

718

834

933

1 043

1 206

1 358

1 246

1 189 c

Jamaica

Public

5 376

5 796

6 123

6 344

6 594

8 390

8 626

8 256

8 310

8 745 f

Saint Kitts and Nevis

Public

299

310

313

328

306

317

342

306

298

296 b

Saint Lucia

Public

350

365

399

364

373

393

391

432

471

496 b

Saint Vincent

and the Grenadines

Public

183

187

219

235

261

273

271

277

316

315 b

Suriname

Public

390

391

298

319

269

334

463

567

737

786 d

Trinidad and Tobago

Public

1 282

1 299

1 399

1 476

1 422

1 561

1 639

1 861

1 693

2 057 d

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Includes debt owed to the International Monetary Fund.

b First semester.

c First quarter.

d Third quarter.

e Figures as of July.

f Figures as of October.

g Figures as of September 2013.

h Figures as of August.

Table A-12

Latin America and the Caribbean: sovereign spreads on EMBI+ and EMBI global

(Basis points to end of period)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America

EMBI+

283

186

268

722

328

305

410

317

410

422

Argentina

EMBI+

504

216

410

1 704

660

496

925

991

808

703

Belize

EMBI Global

…

…

…

…

…

617

1 391

2 245

807

686

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

EMBI Global

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

289

232

Brazil

EMBI+

311

192

221

428

192

189

223

142

224

233

Chile

EMBI Global

80

84

151

343

95

115

172

116

148

146

Colombia

EMBI+

238

161

195

498

196

172

195

112

166

172

Dominican Republic

EMBI Global

…

…

…

…

…

322

597

343

349

327

Ecuador

EMBI+

669

920

614

4 731

769

913

846

826

530

412

El Salvador

EMBI Global

…

…

…

…

…

302

478

396

389

381

Jamaica

EMBI Global

…

…

…

…

…

427

637

711

641

452

Mexico

EMBI+

126

98

149

376

164

149

187

126

155

166

Panama

EMBI+

246

148

184

540

171

162

201

129

199

190

Paraguay

EMBI Global

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

240

254

Peru

EMBI+

206

118

178

509

165

163

216

114

159

168

Uruguay

EMBI Global

298

185

243

685

238

188

213

127

194

193

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

EMBI+

318

182

506

1 862

1 017

1 044

1 197

773

1 093

1 429

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of information from JPMorgan. Emerging Markets Bond Index Monitor.

a Figures as of October.

Table A-13

Latin America and the Caribbean: sovereign risk premiums on five-year credit default swaps

(Basis points to end of period)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

Argentina

367

203

462

4 041

914

602

922

1 442

1 654

2 684

Brasil

225

100

103

301

123

111

162

108

194

154

Chile

20

19

32

203

68

84

132

72

80

73

Colombia

167

114

130

309

143

113

156

96

119

99

Mexico

63

40

69

293

134

114

154

98

92

83

Panama

148

80

118

302

134

99

150

98

111

91

Peru

221

91

116

304

124

113

172

97

133

101

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

221

129

452

3 218

1 104

1 016

928

647

1 150

2 292

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of information from Bloomberg.

a Figures as of November.

Table A-14

Latin America and the Caribbean: international bond issues a

(Millions of dollars)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 b

Total

47 893

44 373

40 066

17 034

72 879

83 533

96 385

114 078

123 332

123 289

National issues

47 109

43 556

39 823

16 587

69 001

82 007

93 464

111 248

121 043

120 430

Argentina

540

1 896

3 598

65

686

3 146

2 193

663

650

1 200

Bahamas

-

-

-

100

300

-

-

-

-

300

Barbados

325

-

-

-

450

390

-

-

-

2 500

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

500

500

-

Brazil

15 038

19 489

10 433

6 400

30 631

39 580

38 147

49 946

37 262

43 661

Chile

900

1 062

250

-

3 773

6 750

6 049

9 443

11 540

10 627

Colombia

2 435

3 427

3 065

-

3 450

1 912

6 411

7 459

10 012

9 200

Costa Rica

-

-

-

-

-

-

250

1 250

3 000

1 000

Dominican Republic

160

675

605

-

-

1 034

750

750

1 800

1 500

Ecuador

650

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

2 000

El Salvador

375

925

-

-

800

450

654

800

310

800

Guatemala

-

-

-

-

-

-

150

1 200

1 200

1 100

Honduras

-

-

-

-

-

20

-

-

1 000

-

Jamaica

1 050

930

-

-

750

1 075

694

1 750

1 800

1 800

Mexico

14 153

8 464

9 977

5 336

19 338

19 957

25 846

28 147

41 729

34 067

Panama

1 530

2 076

670

686

1 323

-

897

1 100

1 350

1 935

Paraguay

-

-

-

-

-

-

100

500

500

1 000

Peru

2 675

333

1 827

-

1 150

4 693

2 455

7 240

5 840

5 740

Trinidad and Tobago

100

500

900

-

850

-

175

-

550

-

Uruguay

1 062

3 679

999

-

500

-

1 493

500

2 000

2 000

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

6 115

100

7 500

4 000

5 000

3 000

7 200

-

-

-

Supranational issues

784

817

243

447

3 878

1 526

2 921

2 830

2 289

2 859

Corporate issues

-

-

-

-

2 200

-

1 506

746

475

-

Arcos Dorados

-

-

-

-

900

-

256

146

375

-

Foreign Trade Bank

of Latin America

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

400

-

-

Central American Bottling

Corporation

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

200

100

-

NII Holdings

-

-

-

-

1 300

-

1 250

-

-

-

Multilateral issues

784

817

243

447

1 678

1 526

1 415

2 084

1 814

2 859

Central American Bank

for Economic Integration

200

183

-

-

500

151

-

250

520

282

Caribbean Development Bank

-

-

-

-

-

-

175

-

-

-

Andean Development Corporation

584

634

243

447

1 178

1 375

1 240

1 834

1 294

2 577

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures provided by Merrill-Lynch. JP Morgan and LatinFinance.

a Includes sovereign, bank and corporate bonds.

b Figures as of October.

Table A-15

Latin America and the Caribbean: stock exchange indices

(National indices to end of period, 31 December 2005=100)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

Argentina

100

135

139

70

150

228

160

185

349

636

Brazil

100

133

191

112

205

207

170

182

154

164

Chile

100

137

155

121

182

251

213

219

188

203

Colombia

100

117

112

79

122

163

133

155

137

127

Costa Rica

100

177

217

207

142

118

121

129

190

212

Ecuador

100

130

121

128

107

126

128

135

148

163

Jamaica

100

96

103

77

80

82

91

88

77

71

Mexico

100

149

166

126

180

217

208

246

240

248

Peru

100

268

365

147

295

487

406

430

328

315

Trinidad and Tobago

100

91

92

79

72

78

95

100

111

107

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

100

256

186

172

270

320

574

2 312

13 421

14 670

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of information from Bloomberg.

a Figures as of November.

Table A-16

Latin America and the Caribbean: gross international reserves

(Millions of dollars, end-of-period stocks)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America and the Caribbean

262 257

319 025

459 238

512 374

567 070

655 672

773 910

835 727

830 009

866 601

Latin America

254 118

309 356

448 122

498 537

553 157

639 798

756 967

820 018

813 978

849 803

Argentina

27 262

31 167

45 711

46 198

47 967

52 145

46 376

43 290

30 599

28 111

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

1 798

3 193

5 319

7 722

8 580

9 730

12 018

13 927

14 430

15 387

Brazil

53 799

85 839

180 334

193 783

238 520

288 575

352 012

373 147

358 808

375 833

Chile

16 963

19 429

16 910

23 162

25 371

27 864

41 979

41 640

41 094

39 842

Colombia

14 634

15 109

20 607

23 672

24 992

28 464

32 303

37 474

43 639

47 373

Costa Rica b

2 313

3 115

4 114

3 799

4 066

4 627

4 756

6 857

7 331

7 082

Dominican Republic b

1 929

2 251

2 946

2 662

3 307

3 765

4 098

3 559

4 701

4 438

Ecuador c

2 147

2 023

3 521

4 473

3 792

2 622

2 958

2 483

4 361

6 003

El Salvador

1 832

1 907

2 197

2 544

2 985

2 882

2 503

3 175

2 745

3 114

Guatemala b

3 783

4 061

4 310

4 659

5 213

5 954

6 188

6 694

7 273

7 098

Haiti

187

305

494

587

733

1 284

1 343

1 337

1 690

1 177 d

Honduras b

2 526

2 824

2 733

2 690

2 174

2 775

2 880

2 629

3 113

3 083 d

Mexico

74 110

76 330

87 211

95 302

99 893

120 587

149 209

167 050

180 200

197 026

Nicaragua

730

862

1 032

1 062

1 490

1 708

1 793

1 778

1 874

2 042

Panama b

1 245

1 379

2 094

2 637

3 222

2 843

2 514

2 441

2 775

3 421 d

Paraguay

1 293

1 703

2 462

2 864

3 861

4 169

4 984

4 994

5 876

7 001

Peru

14 120

17 329

27 720

31 233

33 175

44 150

48 859

64 049

65 710

63 577

Uruguay

3 078

3 091

4 121

6 360

7 987

7 743

10 302

13 605

16 281

17 716

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

30 368

37 440

34 286

43 127

35 830

27 911

29 892

29 890

21 481

20 479

The Caribbean

8 139

9 669

11 117

13 837

13 913

15 874

16 944

15 709

16 031

16 798

Antigua and Barbuda e

127

143

144

138

108

136

147

161

202

272 f

Bahamas

579

500

454

563

816

861

892

812

740

792 d

Barbados

416

444

622

523

563

575

587

630

516

461 d

Belize

58

95

99

156

210

216

242

289

402

471

Dominica e

49

63

60

55

64

66

75

92

85

98 f

Grenada e

94

100

110

104

112

103

106

104

135

135 f

Guyana

251

277

313

356

628

780

798

862

777

621

Jamaica

2 169

2 399

1 906

1 795

1 752

2 979

2 820

1 981

1 818

2 515

Saint Kitts and Nevis e

71

89

96

110

123

156

233

252

291

354 f

Saint Lucia e

114

132

151

140

151

182

192

208

168

194 f

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines e

69

78

86

83

75

111

88

109

133

145 f

Suriname

126

215

401

433

659

639

941

1 008

775

621

Trinidad and Tobago

4 015

5 134

6 674

9 380

8 652

9 070

9 822

9 200

9 987

10 119 d

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Figures as of October.

b Series corresponding to the harmonized monetary and financial statistics.

c Freely available International reserves.

d Figures as of September.

e Net international reserves.

f Figures as of June.

Table A-17

Latin America and the Caribbean: real effective exchange rates a

(Indices: 2005=100, average values for the period)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012 b

2013 b

2014 b c

Latin America and the Caribbean d

100.0

97.3

94.8

89.5

88.5

85.8

83.7

81.5

81.2

83.2

Barbados

100.0

96.1

97.2

94.0

88.7

85.7

82.9

80.0

79.6

79.7

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

100.0

96.6

91.8

79.7

73.7

75.7

74.0

70.6

66.4

63.7

Brazil

100.0

88.4

81.5

77.8

79.6

68.6

65.4

72.8

77.3

79.2

Chile

100.0

94.3

95.1

93.4

98.0

91.5

90.0

88.5

89.5

99.0

Colombia

100.0

100.6

88.7

83.1

86.5

76.3

76.0

72.1

75.0

77.6

Costa Rica

100.0

98.9

95.9

91.2

91.5

80.3

77.2

74.3

71.2

74.9

Dominica

100.0

100.5

102.1

100.3

98.7

97.9

99.9

99.4

100.5

101.4

Dominican Republic

100.0

105.3

103.5

103.7

105.0

103.4

103.1

104.0

107.5

110.3

Ecuador

100.0

100.5

103.7

102.0

95.9

94.4

95.4

91.5

90.5

88.9

El Salvador

100.0

99.4

99.6

98.3

96.4

96.8

96.4

95.8

96.4

96.7

Guatemala

100.0

96.5

95.3

89.3

92.7

90.9

86.4

84.7

82.6

80.2

Honduras

100.0

98.0

96.1

91.0

85.0

83.5

81.3

79.7

80.2

78.0

Jamaica

100.0

100.8

101.8

93.1

100.6

90.5

86.8

84.5

88.2

91.8

Mexico

100.0

99.8

100.2

102.2

116.7

107.5

107.2

110.5

104.8

105.8

Nicaragua

100.0

98.6

98.6

92.4

92.8

94.4

97.2

96.0

95.2

95.4

Panama

100.0

100.9

101.6

98.7

94.9

93.9

93.4

89.1

86.4

85.5

Paraguay

100.0

85.5

76.3

66.8

73.7

70.1

61.7

63.7

62.0

61.6

Peru

100.0

100.5

100.1

95.8

94.7

90.8

92.4

85.5

86.5

88.5

Trinidad and Tobago

100.0

95.7

92.8

87.7

80.6

74.6

74.6

69.0

66.6

64.5

Uruguay

100.0

95.9

93.2

85.7

82.1

70.2

67.0

65.3

62.5

65.8

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

100.0

92.8

81.9

67.2

52.3

79.3

70.2

58.7

60.9

…

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Annual averages. A country’s overall real effective exchange rate index is calculated by weighting its real bilateral exchange rate indices with each of its trading partners by each partner’s share in the country’s total trade flows in terms of exports and imports. The extraregional real effective exchange rate index excludes trade with other Latin American and Caribbean countries. A currency depreciates in real effective terms when this index rises and appreciates when it falls.

b Preliminary figures.

c Figures as of October.

d Simple average of the extraregional real effective exchange rate for 21 countries. As from 2014, does not include the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.

Table A-18

Latin America and the Caribbean: participation rate

(Average annual rates)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2013

2014 a

January to September

Latin America and the Caribbean b

58.8

58.9

59.1

59.1

59.3

59.6

59.8

60.0

59.8

…

…

Argentina

Urban areas

59.9

60.3

59.5

58.8

59.3

58.9

59.5

59.3

58.9

59.0

58.3 c

Bahamas

Nationwide total

…

…

…

…

73.4

…

72.3

74.6

73.2

72.7

73.1 d

Barbados

Nationwide total

69.6

67.9

67.8

67.6

67.0

66.6

67.6

66.2

66.7

…

…

Belize

Nationwide total

59.4

57.6

61.2

59.2

…

…

…

65.8

64.5 e

…

…

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

Departamental capitals f

55.7

58.7

57.1

… l

56.9

57.3 g

…

…

…

…

…

Brazil

Six metropolitan areas

56.6

56.9

56.9

57.0

56.7

57.1

57.1

57.3

57.1

57.1

56.0 h

Chile i

Nationwide total

55.6

54.8

54.9

56.0

55.9 l

58.5

59.8

59.6

59.6

59.4

59.7

Colombia

Nationwide total

60.5

59.1

58.3

58.5

61.3

62.7

63.7

64.5

64.2

64.1

64.1 h

Costa Rica j

Nationwide total

56.8

56.6

57.0

56.7 l

60.4

59.1

60.7

60.1

59.7

59.7

59.5 k

Cuba l

Nationwide total

72.1

72.1

73.7

74.7

75.4

74.9

76.1

74.2

72.9

…

…

Dominican Republic

Nationwide total

55.9

56.0

56.1

55.6

53.8

55.0

56.2

56.5

56.1

55.7

57.7 m

Ecuador

Urban total

65.6

64.9

67.8

66.6

65.2

63.2

61.5

62.3

61.4

62.1

61.9

El Salvador n

Nationwide total

52.4

52.6 l

62.1

62.7

62.8

62.5

62.7

63.2

63.6

…

…

Guatemala o

Nationwide total

…

…

60.1

…

…

54.3 l

61.8

65.4

60.6

60.7

61.7 p

Honduras

Nationwide total

50.9

50.7

50.7

51.0

53.1

53.6

51.9

50.8

53.7

…

…

Jamaica

Nationwide total

64.2

64.7

64.9

65.4

63.5

62.4

62.3

61.9

63.0

63.1

62.8

Mexico

Nationwide total

58.0

58.7

58.8

58.6

58.7

58.4

58.6

59.2

59.1

59.0

58.6

Nicaragua j

Nationwide total

53.8

51.4

53.4

53.3 l

66.9

72.1

74.9

…

…

…

…

Panama

Nationwide total

63.6

62.6

62.7

63.9

64.1

63.5

61.9

63.4

64.1

64.1

64.0 q

Paraguay

Nationwide total

61.8

59.4

60.8

61.7

62.9

60.5

60.7

64.3

62.6

…

…

Peru

Metropolitan Lima

67.1

67.4

68.9

68.1

68.4

70.0

70.0

69.1

68.9

68.9

68.4

Trinidad and Tobago

Nationwide total

63.7

63.9

63.5

63.5

62.7

62.1

61.3

61.8

61.3

…

…

Uruguay

Nationwide total r

58.5 l

60.7

62.5

62.7

63.4

62.9

64.8

64.0

63.6

63.4

64.5

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

Nationwide total

66.3

65.4

64.9

64.9

65.1

64.6

64.4

63.9

64.3

64.3

65.0

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). on the basis of official figures.

a The figures in the last two columns refer to the period January-September.

b The regional series are weighted averages of national data (excluding the Bahamas, Belize, Guatemala, Nicaragua and the Plurinational State of Bolivia) and include adjustments for lack of information and changes in methodology. The data relating to the different countries are not comparable owing to differences in coverage and in the definition of the working-age population.

c The figures in the last two columns refer to the period January-June.

d The figures in the last two columns refer to the measurement for May.

e The figures refer to the measurement for April.

f Up to 2007, urban areas.

g First semester.

h The figures in the last two columns refer to the period January-October.

i New measurements have been used since 2010; the data are not comparable with the previous series.

j New measurements have been used since 2009; the data are not comparable with the previous series.

k The figures in the last two columns refer to the measurement for July.

l The working-age population is measured as follows: for males, 17 to 59 years and for females, 15 to 54 years.

m The figures in the last two columns refer to the measurement for April.

n New measurements have been used since 2007; the data are not comparable with the previous series.

o New measurements have been used since 2011; the data are not comparable with the previous series.

p The figures in the last two columns refer to the measurement for April and May.

q The figures in the last two columns refer to the measurement for August.

r Up to 2005, urban total.

Table A-19

Latin America and the Caribbean: open urban unemployment a

(Average annual rates)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 b

Latin America and the Caribbean c

9.0

8.6

7.9

7.3

8.1

7.3

6.7

6.4

6.2

6.0

Argentina

Urban areas

11.6

10.2

8.5

7.9

8.7

7.7

7.2

7.2

7.1

7.4 d

Bahamas e

Nationwide total

10.2

7.6

7.9

8.7

14.2

…

15.9

14.0

15.8

14.3 f

Barbados e

Nationwide total

9.1

8.7

7.4

8.1

10.0

10.8

11.2

11.6

11.6

...

Belize e

Nationwide total

11.0

9.4

8.5

8.2

13.1

12.5

…

15.3

13.2

11.1 g

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

Departamental capitals h

8.1

8.0

7.7 l

6.7

7.9

6.1

5.8

…

...

...

Brazil

Six metropolitan areas

9.8

10.0

9.3

7.9

8.1

6.7

6.0

5.5

5.4

4.8

Chile

Nationwide total

9.2

7.7

7.1

7.8

9.7 l

8.2

7.1

6.4

5.9

6.4

Colombia e

Thirteen metropolitan areas

14.3

13.1

11.4

11.5

13.0

12.4

11.5

11.2

10.6

9.9

Colombia i

Thirteen metropolitan areas

13.1

12.2

10.7

11.0

12.4

11.8

10.9

10.6

10.1

9.5

Costa Rica j

Urban total

6.9

6.0

4.8

4.8 l

8.5

7.1

7.7

7.8

8.2

8.5

Cuba

Nationwide total

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.7

2.5

3.2

3.5

3.3

...

Dominican Republic

Nationwide total

6.4

5.5

5.1

4.7

5.3

5.0

5.8

6.5

7.0

6.8 g

Ecuador e

Urban total

8.5

8.1

7.4

6.9

8.5

7.6

6.0

4.9

4.7

5.0 d

Ecuador i

Urban total

6.5

5.7

5.5

5.3

6.8

6.1

4.9

4.2

4.0

4.2 d

El Salvador

Urban total

7.3

5.7

5.8

5.5

7.1

6.8

6.6

6.2

5.6

...

Guatemala k

Urban total

…

…

…

…

…

4.8 l

3.1

4.0

3.8

4.2 l

Honduras

Urban total

6.5

4.9

4.0

4.1

4.9

6.4

6.8

5.6

6.0

…

Jamaica e

Nationwide total

11.3

10.3

9.8

10.6

11.4 l

12.4

12.6

13.9

15.2

13.6 m

Jamaica i

Nationwide total

5.8

5.8

6.0

6.9

7.5 l

8.0

8.4

9.3

10.3

9.4 m

Mexico

Urban areas

4.7

4.6

4.8

4.9

6.7

6.4

5.9

5.8

5.7

6.0

Nicaragua

Urban total

7.0

7.0

6.9

8.0

10.5

9.7

…

…

...

...

Panama e

Urban total

12.1

10.4

7.8

6.5

7.9

7.7

5.4

4.8

4.7

5.4

Panama i

Urban total

9.8

8.4

5.8

5.0

6.3

5.8

3.6

3.6

3.7

4.1

Paraguay

Urban total

7.6

8.9

7.2

7.4

8.2

7.0

6.5

6.1

5.9

...

Peru

Urban total

9.6

8.5

8.4

8.4

8.4

7.9

7.7

6.8

5.9

6.0

Trinidad and Tobago e

Nationwide total

8.0

6.2

5.6

4.6

5.3

5.9

5.1

5.0

3.7

...

Uruguay

Urban total

12.2

11.4

9.6

7.9

7.6

7.1

6.6

6.7

6.7

6.8 d

Venezuela

(Bolivarian Republic of) e

Nationwide total

12.4

9.9

8.4

7.3

7.9

8.7

8.3

8.1

7.8

7.2 d

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of household surveys.

a Unemployed population as a percentage of the economically active population.

b Estimate based on data from January to October.

c Weighted average adjusted for lack of information and differences and changes in methodology. The data relating to the different countries are not comparable owing to differences in coverage and in the definition of the working age population.

d Estimate based on data from January to September.

e Includes hidden unemployment.

f Figures as of May.

g Figures as of April.

h Up to 2007, urban areas.

i Includes an adjustment to the figures for the economically active population to exclude hidden unemployment.

j New measurements have been used since 2009; the data are not comparable with the previous series.

k Owing to methodological changes, as of 2011 the data are not comparable with the previous series.

l Average of the April and May measurements.

m January-July average.

Table A-20

Latin America and the Caribbean: employment rate a

(Average annual rates)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2013

2014 b

January to September

Latin America

and the Caribbean c

53.9

54.2

54.8

55.1

54.8

55.4

55.9

56.3

56.3

…

…

Argentina

Urban areas

52.9

54.1

54.5

54.2

54.2

54.4

55.2

55.0

54.7

54.5

54.0 d

Bahamas

Nationwide total

68.5

69.4

70.2

69.7

63.0

…

62.4

64.2

61.6

60.9

62.6 e

Barbados

Nationwide total

63.2

61.9

62.7

62.1

60.3

59.4

60.0

58.5

58.9

…

…

Belize

Nationwide total

52.8

52.5

56.0

54.3

…

…

…

55.8

56.7 f

…

…

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

Departamental capitals g

51.2

54.0

52.7

... l

52.4

53.6

…

…

…

…

…

Brazil

Six metropolitan areas

51.0

51.2

51.6

52.5

52.1

53.2

53.7

54.2

54.0

54.0

53.2 h

Chile i

Nationwide total

50.4

50.5

51.0

51.7

50.5 l

53.7

55.5

55.7

56.0

55.8

55.8

Colombia

Nationwide total

53.4

52.0

51.8

51.9

53.9

55.4

56.8

57.9

58.0

57.8

58.1

Costa Rica j

Nationwide total

53.0

53.3

54.4

53.9 l

55.4

54.8

56.0

55.4

54.7

54.7

54.4 k

Cuba l

Nationwide total

70.7

70.7

72.4

73.6

74.2

73.0

73.6

71.6

70.5

…

…

Dominican Republic

Nationwide total

45.9

46.9

47.4

47.7

45.8

47.1

48.0

48.2

47.7

47.4

49.0 m

Ecuador

Urban total

61.3

61.2

64.3

63.1

60.7

59.3

58.5

59.7

58.9

59.2

58.6

El Salvador n

Nationwide total

48.3

49.2 l

58.1

59.0

59.2

58.1

58.6

59.4

59.9

…

…

Guatemala o

Urban total

...

...

58.6

...

...

... l

59.2

63.5

58.7

58.7

59.9 p

Honduras

Nationwide total

48.6

49.0

49.2

49.4

51.5

51.5

49.7

48.9

51.6

…

…

Jamaica

Nationwide total

57.0

58.0

58.6

58.5

56.3 l

54.6

54.4

53.3

53.4

53.4

54.3

Mexico

Nationwide total

55.8

56.7

56.7

56.3

55.4

55.3

55.5

56.3

56.2

56.0

55.6

Nicaragua j

Nationwide total

50.8

48.8

48.6

50.1 l

61.8

66.8

…

…

…

…

…

Panama

Nationwide total

57.3

57.2

58.7

60.3

59.9

59.4

59.1

60.8

61.5

61.5

60.9 q

Paraguay

Nationwide total

58.2

55.4

57.4

57.0

57.1

57.1

57.3

61.2

59.4

…

…

Peru

Urban total

60.7

61.8

63.0

62.4

62.7

64.5

64.5

64.4

64.8

64.7

64.2

Trinidad and Tobago

Nationwide total

58.6

59.9

59.9

60.6

59.4

58.4

58.2

58.8

59.1

...

...

Uruguay

Nationwide total r

51.4 l

54.1

56.7

57.7

58.5

58.4

60.7

59.9

59.5

59.2

60.3

Venezuela

(Bolivarian Republic of)

Nationwide total

58.1

58.9

59.5

60.2

60.0

59.0

59.0

58.7

59.3

59.3

60.2

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). on the basis of official figures.

a Employed population as a percentage of the working-age population.

b The figures in the last two columns refer to the period January-September.

c The regional series are weighted averages of national data (excluding the Bahamas, Belize, Guatemala, Nicaragua and the Plurinational State of Bolivia) and include adjustments for lack of information and changes in methodology. The data relating to the different countries are not comparable owing to differences in coverage and in the definition of the working age population.

d The figures in the last two columns refer to the period January-June.

e The figures in the last two columns refer to the measurement for May.

f The figures refer to the measurement for April.

g Up to 2007, urban areas.

h The figures in the last two columns refer to the period January-October.

i New measurements have been used since 2010; the data are not comparable with the previous series.

j New measurements have been used since 2009; the data are not comparable with the previous series.

k The figures in the last two columns refer to the measurement for July.

l The working-age population is measured as follows: for males, 17 to 59 years and for females, 15 to 54 years.

m The figures in the last two columns refer to the measurement for April.

n New measurements have been used since 2007; the data are not comparable with the previous series.

o Owing to methodological changes, as of 2011 the data are not comparable with the previous series.

p Average of the April and May measurements.

q The figures in the last two columns refer to the measurement for August.

r Up to 2005, urban total.

Table A-21

Latin America: real average wages a

(Indices: 2010=100)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 b

Bolivia (Plurinational State of) c

117.8

109.2

102.2

94.4

96.5

100.0

98.2

99.1

99.7 d

...

Brazil e

90.2

93.4

94.7

96.8

98.0

100.0

102.5

106.3

107.4

109.1 f

Chile g

89.3

91.0

93.6

93.4

97.9

100.0

102.5

105.8

109.9

111.7

Colombia h

94.0

97.7

97.6

96.1

97.3

100.0

100.3

101.3

104.0

104.8

Costa Rica i

90.2

91.6

92.8

90.9

97.9

100.0

105.7

107.1

108.5

110.5

Cuba

84.3

94.1

92.7

92.8

97.0

100.0

100.2

100.7

101.2

...

El Salvador j

100.7

101.1

98.7

95.6

98.9

100.0

97.1

97.3

97.8

...

Guatemala i

102.5

101.3

99.7

97.1

97.2

100.0

100.4

104.4

104.3

...

Mexico i

98.6

100.3

101.7

101.9

100.9

100.0

100.8

101.0

100.9

101.2 f

Nicaragua i

97.2

99.3

97.2

93.3

98.8

100.0

100.1

100.5

100.8

102.7

Panama

91.7

93.6

94.7

90.9

93.3

100.0

100.1

103.5

103.8

108.4 k

Paraguay

93.0

93.5

95.7

95.0

99.4

100.0

102.8

103.5

105.7

105.6 d

Peru l

98.5

99.6

97.9

100.0

103.1

100.0

108.4

111.0

114.7

118.4

Uruguay

79.7

83.2

87.1

90.2

96.8

100.0

104.0

108.4

111.7

115.7 f

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

110.4

116.0

117.4

112.1

105.6

100.0

103.0

109.1

104.3

...

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Figures deflated by the official consumer price index of each country.

b Estimate based on data from January to September.

c Private-sector average wage index.

d Figure for June.

e Private-sector workers covered by social and labour legislation.

f Estimate based on data from January to October.

g General index of hourly remuneration.

h Manufacturing.

i Average wage declared by workers covered by social security.

j Average taxable wage.

k January-July average.

l Payroll workers in the Lima metropolitan area. Until 2010, formal private sector workers in the Lima metropolitan area.

Table A-22

Latin America and the Caribbean: monetary indicators

(Percentage variation with respect to the year-earlier period)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America

Argentina

Monetary base

10.5

23.7

29.0

19.1

5.4

25.1

37.1

34.9

30.2

19.4

Money (M1)

22.8

25.2

23.4

16.7

13.0

24.1

32.4

33.3

29.5

24.4 b

M2

22.6

22.4

24.5

18.1

5.9

27.6

36.9

32.4

30.9

22.4 b

Foreign-currency deposits

21.2

37.9

27.8

36.4

61.6

35.9

8.7

-22.6

-6.1

54.4 b

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

Monetary base

27.4

44.3

48.2

53.8

19.6

32.4

11.6

18.2

10.8

4.9 c

Money (M1)

31.4

45.1

55.2

50.2

9.4

24.1

27.2

18.3

13.5

15.3 c

M2

39.8

53.6

68.1

59.6

18.4

34.6

34.0

31.3

22.6

18.7 c

Foreign-currency deposits

4.8

-2.8

11.2

-9.2

20.4

4.7

-12.8

-5.0

-4.1

-3.7 c

Brazil

Monetary base

15.3

18.6

20.9

12.5

8.0

17.5

11.0

9.4

5.5

6.8 d

Money (M1)

13.8

15.4

23.3

11.8

7.4

17.5

6.1

5.9

10.7

5.0 d

M2

18.4

15.6

14.1

30.3

22.1

11.1

21.0

13.4

9.3

12.0 d

Chile

Monetary base

16.5

14.6

20.8

7.0

15.0

13.8

14.8

13.7

16.3

6.6

Money (M1)

13.9

11.3

17.9

11.1

14.1

27.7

10.9

9.1

10.1

12.5 d

M2

21.2

18.0

20.3

17.7

3.7

5.1

14.7

14.7

9.7

8.9 d

Foreign-currency deposits

2.1

17.4

11.6

40.7

2.6

8.5

11.8

8.9

18.7

27.1 d

Colombia

Monetary base

19.6

23.2

18.1

14.3

10.3

12.4

15.1

9.5

12.5

17.3 d

Money (M1)

18.5

20.6

13.5

8.0

9.7

14.7

16.2

6.7

14.3

15.9 b

M2

20.1

18.0

18.7

14.6

13.2

6.9

14.8

16.9

17.5

14.2 b

Costa Rica

Monetary base

27.2

30.2

25.4

25.7

6.3

10.0

11.7

12.1

14.1

12.1 b

Money (M1)

18.1

25.2

41.1

21.7

-3.4

9.5

19.2

9.4

11.9

14.4 c

M2

28.4

29.9

34.9

22.9

1.3

2.6

11.1

13.8

13.0

14.8 c

Foreign-currency deposits

24.5

17.0

7.2

10.7

36.8

-1.9

-7.1

-1.2

0.1

11.9 c

Dominican Republic

Monetary base

9.0

13.2

18.4

12.3

3.4

6.4

5.8

9.0

3.9

2.3 d

Money (M1)

5.7

30.1

26.6

11.0

-1.1

17.5

4.9

7.3

12.1

13.9 d

M2

13.3

0.6

14.2

10.9

7.6

13.5

8.8

12.1

8.0

11.1 d

Foreign-currency deposits

-7.8

17.1

10.7

15.0

4.4

18.9

17.8

18.4

16.1

12.4 d

Ecuador

Monetary base

…

…

…

16.4

18.1

24.1

9.9

16.1

23.3

17.8 d

Money (M1)

…

…

…

44.5

38.0

16.1

15.5

14.0

14.8

13.6 b

M2

…

…

…

33.0

22.0

18.6

20.0

17.8

13.4

14.2 b

El Salvador

Monetary base

-4.4

7.1

13.9

8.1

10.8

0.4

-1.3

1.8

4.8

2.9 d

Money (M1)

9.7

12.6

12.2

8.5

7.6

19.8

10.4

4.4

2.9

4.2 d

M2

3.1

9.1

15.0

6.1

0.9

1.6

-2.1

0.5

1.8

0.7 d

Guatemala

Monetary base

12.3

18.9

17.3

4.1

6.6

8.0

10.1

5.8

9.2

5.3 d

Money (M1)

15.1

17.9

17.6

3.4

7.6

7.2

9.1

5.8

7.0

4.7 b

M2

13.5

19.9

11.7

7.3

9.4

8.4

10.6

9.4

9.7

8.0 b

Foreign-currency deposits

6.8

6.1

4.2

9.9

18.1

11.6

4.9

3.2

11.2

10.2 b

Haiti

Monetary base

10.9

12.4

11.3

16.1

14.2

34.1

18.1

9.2

0.4

-3.6 b

Money (M1)

15.2

8.8

3.5

21.4

9.2

26.9

14.4

8.7

11.1

5.3 b

M2

11.1

9.6

5.3

13.7

6.9

17.4

11.5

5.7

9.3

6.8 b

Foreign-currency deposits

17.6

15.9

3.2

22.1

14.4

22.5

18.4

6.9

8.1

7.8 b

Honduras

Monetary base

21.0

14.9

31.3

24.8

11.6

-13.8

10.7

11.3

4.0

7.6 b

Money (M1)

14.6

22.0

18.4

11.5

2.2

5.2

17.7

2.1

-5.0

6.9 b

M2

17.1

26.5

19.4

9.2

0.8

4.7

17.2

8.7

3.6

8.7 b

Foreign-currency deposits

20.5

12.7

10.5

20.3

-1.0

5.4

7.8

15.3

12.6

5.7 b

Mexico

Monetary base

12.1

16.5

12.6

12.6

15.9

9.7

9.5

13.9

6.3

13.2

Money (M1)

12.9

35.9

11.6

8.5

11.8

11.2

16.2

13.7

7.5

13.8 d

M2

11.6

19.8

7.5

13.9

11.5

5.8

12.4

10.7

7.1

11.0 d

Foreign-currency deposits

10.9

24.9

-6.4

2.8

20.7

0.9

3.0

16.8

13.3

27.6 d

Nicaragua

Monetary base

21.3

25.5

18.3

15.2

0.7

24.0

20.5

18.3

6.3

13.4 b

Money (M1)

23.3

18.8

18.2

32.9

4.4

21.4

24.8

17.6

8.5

16.8 b

M2

23.3

18.8

18.2

32.9

4.4

21.4

24.8

17.6

8.5

16.8 b

Foreign-currency deposits

12.5

10.5

8.0

10.2

5.3

25.8

7.8

21.2

13.6

21.2 b

Panama

Monetary base

12.7

7.5

9.6

17.7

11.2

7.5

27.1

12.7

16.0

-10.6 b

Money (M1)

9.5

24.5

29.2

26.5

17.4

19.2

21.5

17.1

6.9

11.3 b

M2

5.5

14.8

22.4

17.1

9.2

11.3

9.9

10.8

6.3

9.3 b

Paraguay

Monetary base

2.3

8.7

31.2

27.6

30.7

5.2

5.0

11.8

5.1

7.6 d

Money (M1)

22.2

16.5

34.4

30.5

6.6

28.7

7.8

8.6

15.6

9.2 d

M2

20.8

12.9

34.2

38.4

13.3

26.4

14.0

13.7

17.4

10.8 d

Foreign-currency deposits

0.1

0.9

9.3

21.1

40.1

16.4

13.5

14.9

15.8

30.2 d

Peru

Monetary base

27.8

17.1

25.2

38.2

2.1

24.2

31.3

31.2

21.1

-9.7

Money (M1)

29.0

17.1

30.6

31.3

8.8

28.0

19.9

18.9

14.0

3.7 d

M2

28.9

7.7

37.7

48.5

-2.2

27.8

18.8

23.6

18.5

0.0 d

Foreign-currency deposits

2.5

11.4

7.9

11.2

23.1

-0.1

14.1

0.2

16.0

24.7 d

Uruguay

Monetary base

24.6

23.5

28.9

28.6

6.1

12.9

23.1

21.8

15.3

11.1

Money (M1)

23.1

28.5

23.0

22.4

13.1

24.6

19.6

18.4

11.7

6.9 d

M2

19.1

28.8

22.5

26.1

11.3

25.8

26.0

17.4

12.4

9.1 d

Foreign-currency deposits

-15.3

2.9

2.2

4.5

25.7

0.2

7.1

13.5

13.9

25.1 d

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

Monetary base

48.0

61.7

65.5

39.5

18.3

24.5

27.0

40.8

61.1

90.5 d

Money (M1)

50.2

105.5

66.8

24.3

28.8

27.5

44.8

62.0

66.1

71.5 d

M2

52.6

61.9

60.2

16.9

28.3

18.0

37.6

57.5

65.4

70.7 d

The Caribbean

Antigua and Barbuda

Monetary base

17.2

4.2

10.0

2.0

-10.5

0.9

20.1

29.4

13.2

…

Money (M1)

28.8

10.8

16.4

6.7

-14.2

-7.3

-6.6

-2.1

3.1

13.7 c

M2

10.4

7.2

11.3

7.6

-2.9

-3.1

-1.1

1.7

2.8

3.6 c

Foreign-currency deposits

30.4

15.9

32.0

-0.5

39.9

-45.2

5.8

-12.8

0.9

29.5 c

Bahamas

Monetary base

-8.1

-3.0

17.2

6.4

2.0

2.5

26.8

-7.8

2.2

14.4 e

Money (M1)

16.0

3.2

1.5

0.3

-0.2

2.8

6.2

8.6

5.6

4.6 e

M2

8.9

7.1

8.5

6.5

2.8

2.8

2.3

1.1

-0.6

-1.0 e

Foreign-currency deposits

22.6

13.8

17.7

15.9

8.4

0.1

-2.7

11.6

15.8

17.0 e

Barbados

Monetary base

-15.8

4.8

26.8

9.2

-13.9

3.4

7.7

-0.9

10.6

3.6 d

Money (M1)

6.0

4.1

11.9

7.7

-5.3

1.7

-0.5

-20.3

5.5

9.4 c

M2

8.8

11.0

15.8

8.8

-1.1

25.7

1.2

-4.3

-22.7

2.1 c

Belize

Monetary base

19.3

19.2

15.1

11.5

11.9

-1.2

8.2

17.5

19.2

17.6 d

Money (M1)

7.3

13.0

17.0

9.2

-1.9

-0.9

9.1

24.0

13.7

13.1 d

Dominica

Monetary base

-10.5

9.9

6.5

-0.1

-4.6

9.7

8.5

17.8

0.0

…

Money (M1)

24.7

10.8

10.1

4.4

-1.3

-1.5

-2.1

9.8

2.5

-0.2 c

M2

13.4

6.7

10.5

8.2

7.5

3.8

3.2

7.0

4.5

6.2 c

Foreign-currency deposits

-33.2

-32.1

-0.6

19.0

15.9

30.2

38.8

25.4

-6.1

7.3 c

Grenada

Monetary base

0.1

-11.1

9.2

3.5

-8.5

6.0

7.2

4.7

5.4

…

Money (M1)

18.6

-5.8

7.1

3.1

-12.9

3.8

-7.3

2.9

5.4

23.6 c

M2

10.9

-0.9

5.2

8.1

1.0

3.4

0.4

1.8

3.0

5.1 c

Foreign-currency deposits

4.2

-18.7

26.0

2.7

17.4

-3.9

-5.5

5.5

-18.8

8.6 c

Guyana

Monetary base

12.3

4.2

0.8

16.5

10.6

17.7

17.4

15.2

6.6

1.2 d

Money (M1)

10.0

14.2

20.5

18.6

8.2

12.9

21.9

16.1

6.7

9.1 d

Jamaica

Monetary base

9.1

14.2

15.1

9.5

22.8

5.5

5.3

6.3

6.3

6.0

Money (M1)

14.7

17.2

18.8

9.1

7.6

7.0

7.8

4.7

5.9

3.5 c

M2

11.5

11.8

14.3

7.9

4.4

6.1

5.6

3.3

6.4

2.5 c

Foreign-currency deposits

7.3

3.0

18.2

10.9

17.5

-0.9

-4.8

6.8

28.5

9.5 c

Saint Kitts and Nevis

Monetary base

16.1

8.1

15.7

7.3

48.3

-3.2

36.1

13.7

22.2

…

Money (M1)

8.8

6.5

17.4

7.2

9.2

16.8

28.6

18.2

12.3

-0.2 c

M2

12.5

6.6

11.9

10.3

10.2

9.4

10.7

8.8

6.4

7.6 c

Foreign-currency deposits

18.8

17.5

16.4

-9.2

-7.0

-9.0

-1.0

6.4

35.6

48.2 c

Saint Lucia

Monetary base

-10.0

7.8

14.4

10.2

8.5

3.6

16.3

4.2

8.0

…

Money (M1)

11.1

9.6

5.0

7.1

-2.4

-4.3

4.0

3.2

2.2

6.5 c

M2

10.9

11.5

11.3

10.7

4.1

0.2

4.9

3.7

3.5

-1.0 c

Foreign-currency deposits

54.6

32.5

47.8

8.9

9.3

-13.2

16.4

14.0

-10.1

46.6 c

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Monetary base

-7.7

14.3

4.5

2.0

-3.2

11.9

0.8

11.8

26.2

…

Money (M1)

8.1

12.8

6.8

-1.4

-8.3

-0.5

-3.9

-0.4

9.6

6.2 c

M2

4.1

6.7

9.5

1.9

0.8

2.2

1.9

1.2

8.6

8.4 c

Foreign-currency deposits

32.7

7.4

102.1

1.5

-6.5

-7.7

30.8

-7.3

29.2

17.9 c

Suriname

Monetary base

…

…

39.7

30.2

22.1

13.0

3.2

27.0

13.8

-7.4 d

Money (M1)

…

…

26.7

21.3

26.3

16.7

5.3

17.0

11.3

5.5 d

M2

…

…

30.2

21.0

25.1

18.2

7.0

20.0

17.7

8.4 d

Foreign-currency deposits

…

…

25.7

24.3

12.0

7.9

39.1

13.6

10.8

12.5 d

Trinidad and Tobago

Monetary base

14.4

41.5

19.0

32.3

37.6

24.7

14.1

15.4

19.5

8.8 b

Money (M1)

24.2

21.7

7.6

17.6

24.0

25.5

17.2

15.4

19.2

21.4 b

M2

23.7

24.7

13.3

17.2

17.6

17.9

8.4

12.0

11.8

12.0 b

Foreign-currency deposits

10.9

11.8

36.4

21.1

32.2

7.9

-4.0

4.7

12.6

-6.8 f

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Figures as of November.

b Figures as of September.

c Figures as of August.

d Figures as of October.

e Figures as of June.

f Figures as of July.

Table A-23

Latin America and the Caribbean: domestic credit

(Percentage variation with respect to the year-earlier period)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America

Argentina

-3.1

-6.2

1.7

23.9

2.3

51.3

59.5

33.0

40.8

24.8 b

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

2.4

-3.2

6.5

7.5

10.9

13.0

18.8

22.7

21.6

19.2 c

Brazil

…

18.8

20.1

15.8

11.3

18.0

17.6

16.8

11.9

8.7 b

Chile

12.4

10.5

15.6

18.4

6.6

-0.1

12.1

15.1

10.0

8.7 d

Colombia

11.2

16.1

15.4

15.7

14.4

20.6

15.1

14.6

14.1

13.8 d

Costa Rica

14.4

16.6

22.1

21.1

19.1

4.6

12.4

11.7

9.2

20.1 d

Dominican Republic

7.2

22.6

10.7

17.4

12.3

7.5

9.4

12.1

12.5

8.4

Ecuador

13.6

9.3

18.2

1.7

20.8

33.6

31.5

21.5

16.7

17.1 b

El Salvador

43.1

8.6

12.4

11.3

2.4

2.2

3.5

9.6

5.5

10.1

Guatemala

11.5

15.5

13.8

10.4

5.2

5.6

15.2

11.3

12.6

12.4 b

Haiti

8.1

5.1

0.3

7.8

9.7

-23.0

-17.1

11.4

70.2

31.1 b

Honduras

-6.9

34.4

49.0

27.1

6.7

10.0

10.8

18.0

9.6

7.2 b

Mexico

10.6

13.5

21.6

8.7

16.7

10.6

11.3

10.7

9.3

10.2 d

Nicaragua

8.1

4.4

11.0

12.6

-1.7

-3.8

-9.5

26.9

21.2

13.1 b

Panama

6.1

16.0

10.7

15.9

1.2

9.5

18.8

18.1

12.9

13.1 b

Paraguay

7.1

7.9

11.0

33.5

12.7

36.3

25.5

28.4

20.8

12.0

Peru

6.1

23.2

38.0

9.4

9.9

24.1

12.0

9.5

6.1

16.6

Uruguay

-27.2

3.9

8.9

3.2

-2.6

13.9

39.9

12.6

4.3

-1.9

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) e

59.3

82.7

51.6

22.0

28.4

13.7

36.0

56.1

61.9

64.6 b

The Caribbean

Antigua and Barbuda

2.6

9.3

17.3

12.5

19.9

0.6

-3.8

-3.0

-4.9

1.0 d

Bahamas

12.9

14.3

4.8

7.5

5.3

3.4

0.8

4.0

1.9

-0.5 f

Barbados

20.4

10.7

8.2

10.1

6.4

-0.5

-0.9

6.6

8.0

5.1 d

Belize

4.8

15.9

13.7

8.9

5.7

-0.4

-1.6

0.4

-2.6

-2.2 b

Dominica

0.3

3.7

-9.3

5.0

8.5

12.5

13.7

7.6

7.7

2.7 d

Grenada

-3.1

12.5

15.4

13.1

8.9

3.9

2.6

5.0

-2.1

-8.6 d

Guyana

24.1

-6.7

28.9

15.8

4.5

-0.8

34.5

40.1

26.3

15.7

Jamaica

7.7

-1.5

12.4

16.3

15.0

-3.4

-4.1

11.7

16.0

13.9 d

Saint Kitts and Nevis

21.3

16.7

9.9

3.0

6.2

6.3

0.2

-9.0

-20.9

-21.7 d

Saint Lucia

15.0

23.5

29.6

21.1

4.6

-0.3

2.9

6.6

5.4

-0.6 d

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

2.4

11.9

16.5

9.5

7.1

1.5

-7.2

-1.0

6.4

3.9 d

Suriname

…

…

20.7

18.5

16.9

21.4

20.8

10.3

23.5

22.2 b

Trinidad and Tobago

-5.3

-40.0

90.1

6.5

35.5

36.6

9.3

7.9

-20.4

-21.5 b

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Figures as of October.

b Figures as of September.

c Figures as of March.

d Figures as of August.

e Credit granted by commercial and universal banks.

f Figures as of June.

Table A-24

Latin America and the Caribbean: monetary policy rates

(Average rates)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America

Argentina

6.0

7.3

9.1

11.3

14.0

12.3

11.8

12.8

14.6

26.6 b

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

5.6

5.3

6.0

9.0

7.0

3.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

5.1 c

Brazil

19.1

15.4

12.0

12.4

10.1

9.9

11.8

8.6

8.3

11.0

Chile

3.5

5.0

5.3

7.2

1.8

1.5

4.8

5.0

4.9

3.8 c

Colombia

6.3

6.6

8.8

9.8

5.8

3.2

4.0

5.0

3.4

3.8 c

Costa Rica

…

8.8

6.0

8.0

9.6

8.1

5.6

5.0

4.5

4.9 c

Dominican Republic

7.6

9.2

7.3

9.0

5.1

4.2

6.4

5.9

5.2

6.3

El Salvador

3.0

4.4

4.6

3.9

1.8

1.3

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.9 b

Guatemala

3.3

4.7

5.5

6.9

5.5

4.5

4.9

5.3

5.1

4.6

Haiti

12.7

18.2

11.6

6.9

6.2

5.0

3.2

3.0

3.0

4.4 b

Honduras

6.9

6.4

6.3

8.4

4.9

4.5

4.8

6.6

7.0

7.0 c

Mexico

9.2

7.2

7.2

7.8

5.7

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.0

3.2 c

Nicaragua

…

…

8.3

8.9

7.4

1.6

1.0

0.9

1.7

3.0 b

Paraguay

4.8

9.7

6.0

5.9

2.1

2.2

7.9

6.0

5.5

6.7 c

Peru

3.0

4.3

4.7

5.9

3.3

2.1

4.0

4.3

4.2

3.8 c

Uruguay d

…

…

…

7.4

8.5

6.3

7.5

8.8

9.3

…

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

…

9.8

9.8

12.3

8.1

6.3

6.4

6.4

6.2

6.4 e

The Caribbean

Antigua and Barbuda

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5 c

Bahamas

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

4.8

4.5

4.5

4.5 c

Barbados

8.8

11.7

12.0

11.8

7.9

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0 f

Belize

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

11.0

11.0

11.0

11.0 b

Dominica

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5 c

Grenada

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5 c

Guyana

6.0

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.9

6.4

5.4

5.4

5.0

5.0 c

Jamaica

12.8

12.3

11.7

14.1

14.8

9.0

6.6

6.3

5.8

5.8 e

Saint Kitts and Nevis

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5 c

Saint Lucia

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5 c

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5 c

Trinidad and Tobago

5.5

7.3

8.0

8.4

7.5

4.7

3.2

2.9

2.8

2.8

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Figures as of December.

b Figures as of October.

c Figures as of November.

d As from June 2013, interest rate no longer used as monetary policy tool.

e Figures as of July.

f Figures as of September.

Table A-25

Latin America and the Caribbean: representative lending rates

(Average rates)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America

Argentina b

10.5

12.9

14.0

19.8

21.3

15.2

17.7

19.3

21.6

29.6 c

Bolivia (Plurinational State of) d

12.1

8.8

8.3

8.9

8.5

5.2

6.3

6.7

7.0

6.5

Brazil e

69.4

62.3

51.0

54.1

47.5

42.9

44.9

39.9

39.1

44.8 c

Chile f

13.5

14.4

13.6

15.2

12.9

11.8

12.4

13.5

13.2

11.0

Colombia g

14.6

12.9

15.4

17.2

13.0

9.4

11.2

12.6

11.0

10.9 c

Costa Rica h

24.0

22.7

17.3

16.7

21.6

19.8

18.1

19.7

17.4

16.6

Dominican Republic i

21.4

15.7

11.7

16.0

12.9

8.3

11.7

12.2

10.7

10.5

Ecuador j

8.7

8.9

10.1

9.8

9.2

9.0

8.3

8.2

8.2

8.1

El Salvador k

6.9

7.5

7.8

7.9

9.3

7.6

6.0

5.6

5.7

6.0 c

Guatemala h

13.0

12.8

12.8

13.4

13.8

13.3

13.4

13.5

13.6

13.8

Haiti l

27.1

29.5

31.2

23.3

21.6

20.7

19.8

19.4

18.9

18.6 c

Honduras h

18.8

17.4

16.6

17.9

19.4

18.9

18.6

18.4

20.1

20.6 c

Mexico m

9.7

7.5

7.6

8.7

7.1

5.3

4.9

4.7

4.3

3.6 c

Nicaragua n

12.1

11.6

13.0

13.2

14.0

13.3

10.8

12.0

15.0

13.8 c

Panama o

8.2

8.1

8.3

8.2

8.3

7.9

7.3

7.0

7.4

7.7 p

Paraguay q

15.5

15.7

12.8

13.5

14.6

12.5

16.9

16.6

16.6

15.9 c

Peru r

25.5

23.9

22.9

23.7

21.0

19.0

18.7

19.2

18.1

15.8

Uruguay s

15.3

10.7

10.0

13.1

16.6

12.0

11.0

12.0

13.3

17.2 c

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) t

15.6

14.6

16.7

22.8

20.6

18.0

17.4

16.2

15.6

16.8 c

The Caribbean

Antigua and Barbuda u

11.2

10.7

10.3

10.1

9.5

10.2

10.1

9.4

9.4

9.7 v

Bahamas w

10.3

10.0

10.6

11.0

10.6

11.0

11.0

10.9

11.2

11.7 c

Barbados u

10.3

10.7

10.7

10.4

9.8

9.5

9.3

8.6

8.5

8.4 p

Belize x

14.3

14.2

14.3

14.1

14.1

13.9

13.3

12.3

11.5

10.9 c

Dominica u

9.9

9.5

9.2

9.4

10.0

9.4

8.7

8.9

9.0

8.9 v

Grenada u

10.0

9.8

9.7

9.4

10.7

10.3

10.4

9.5

9.1

9.0 v

Guyana u

15.1

14.9

14.1

13.9

14.0

15.2

14.7

14.0

12.1

11.2 c

Jamaica u

23.2

22.0

22.0

22.3

22.6

20.3

18.3

17.8

16.3

15.1 c

Saint Kitts and Nevis u

9.9

9.2

9.3

8.6

8.6

8.5

9.2

8.5

8.4

8.9 v

Saint Lucia u

10.4

10.5

9.7

9.3

9.5

9.5

9.2

8.6

8.4

8.4 v

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines u

9.6

9.7

9.6

9.5

9.1

9.0

9.0

9.3

9.2

9.4 v

Suriname y

18.1

15.6

13.8

12.0

11.7

11.7

11.8

11.7

12.0

12.2 c

Trinidad and Tobago r

9.1

10.2

10.5

12.3

11.9

9.2

8.0

7.7

7.5

7.5

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Figures as of November.

b Local-currency loans to the non-financial private sector, at fixed or renegotiable rates, signature loans of up to 89 days.

c Figures as of October.

d Nominal local-currency rate for 60-91-day operations.

e Interest rate on total consumer credit.

f Non-adjustable 90-360 day operations.

g Weighted average of consumer, prime, ordinary and treasury lending rates for the working days of the month.

Owing to the high turnover of treasury credit, its weighting was set at one fifth of the amount disbursed daily.

h Weighted average of the system lending rates in local currency.

i Prime lending rate.

j Effective benchmark lending rate for the corporate commercial segment.

k Basic lending rate for up to one year.

l Average of highest and lowest lending rates.

m Weighted average rate of private debt issues of up to 1 year, expressed as a 28-day curve. Includes only stock certificates.

n Weighted average of short-term lending rates in local currency.

o Interest rate on one-year trade credit.

p Figures as of September.

q Commercial lending rate, local currency.

r Market lending rate, average for transactions conducted in the last 30 business days.

s Business credit, 30-367 days.

t Average rate for loan operations for the six major commercial banks.

u Weighted average of lending rates.

v Figures as of June.

w Weighted average of lending and overdraft rates.

x Rate for personal and business loans, residential and other construction loans; weighted average.

y Average lending rate.

Table A-26

Latin America and the Caribbean: consumer prices

(12-month percentage variation)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America and the Caribbean b

6.1

5.1

6.5

8.1

4.6

6.5

6.8

5.6

7.3

9.3

Latin America

Argentina

12.3

9.8

8.5

7.2

7.7

10.9

9.5

10.8

10.9

24.2

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

4.9

4.9

11.7

11.8

0.3

7.2

6.9

4.5

6.5

3.6

Brazil

5.7

3.1

4.5

5.9

4.3

5.9

6.5

5.8

5.9

6.6

Chile

3.7

2.6

7.8

7.1

-1.4

3.0

4.4

1.5

3.0

6.1

Colombia

4.9

4.5

5.7

7.7

2.0

3.2

3.7

2.4

1.9

3.3

Costa Rica

14.1

9.4

10.8

13.9

4.0

5.8

4.7

4.5

3.7

5.7

Cuba c

3.7

5.7

10.6

-0.1

-0.1

1.5

1.3

2.0

0.0

1.2 d

Dominican Republic

7.4

5.0

8.9

4.5

5.7

6.3

7.8

3.9

3.9

2.9

Ecuador

3.1

2.9

3.3

8.8

4.3

3.3

5.4

4.2

2.7

4.0

El Salvador

4.3

4.9

4.9

5.5

-0.2

2.1

5.1

0.8

0.8

1.7 d

Guatemala

8.6

5.8

8.7

9.4

-0.3

5.4

6.2

3.4

4.4

3.6

Haiti

15.3

10.3

10.0

10.1

2.0

6.2

8.3

7.6

3.4

5.3 d

Honduras

7.7

5.3

8.9

10.8

3.0

6.5

5.6

5.4

4.9

6.3

Mexico

3.3

4.1

3.8

6.5

3.6

4.4

3.8

3.6

4.0

4.3

Nicaragua

9.7

10.2

16.2

12.7

1.8

9.1

8.6

7.1

5.4

6.8

Panama

3.4

2.2

6.4

6.8

1.9

4.9

6.3

4.6

3.7

2.1

Paraguay

9.9

12.5

6.0

7.5

1.9

7.2

4.9

4.0

3.7

3.5

Peru

1.5

1.1

3.9

6.7

0.2

2.1

4.7

2.6

2.9

3.1

Uruguay

4.9

6.4

8.5

9.2

5.9

6.9

8.6

7.5

8.5

8.1

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) e

14.4

17.0

22.5

30.9

25.1

27.2

27.6

20.1

56.2

63.4 f

The Caribbean

Antigua and Barbuda

2.5

0.0

5.2

0.7

2.4

2.9

4.0

1.8

1.1

0.8 g

Bahamas

1.2

2.3

2.8

4.6

1.3

1.4

3.2

0.7

0.8

1.0 f

Barbados

7.4

5.6

4.7

7.3

4.4

6.5

9.6

2.4

1.1

3.1 f

Belize

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

0.0

2.6

0.8

1.6

0.7 d

Dominica

2.7

1.8

6.0

2.0

3.2

0.3

1.9

1.3

-0.4

1.2 g

Grenada

6.2

1.7

7.4

5.2

-2.3

4.2

3.5

1.8

-1.7

-1.3 h

Guyana

8.2

4.2

14.1

6.4

3.6

4.5

3.3

3.4

0.9

0.3 g

Jamaica

12.6

5.6

16.8

16.9

10.2

11.8

6.0

8.0

9.7

9.0 d

Saint Kitts and Nevis

6.2

8.0

2.9

6.5

1.2

5.2

2.9

0.1

0.3

-0.1 i

Saint Lucia

5.2

-0.5

6.8

3.4

-3.1

4.2

4.8

5.0

-0.7

3.6 i

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

3.9

4.8

8.3

8.7

-1.6

0.9

4.7

1.0

0.0

-0.4 i

Suriname

15.8

4.7

8.3

9.4

1.3

10.3

15.3

4.4

0.6

3.9 d

Trinidad and Tobago

7.2

9.1

7.6

14.5

1.3

13.4

5.3

7.2

5.6

7.8 d

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Twelve-month variation to October 2014.

b The only English-speaking Caribbean countries included are Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago.

c Refers to national-currency markets.

d Twelve-month variation to September 2014.

e Up to 2008, national consumer price index.

f Twelve-month variation to August 2014.

g Twelve-month variation to June 2014.

h Twelve-month variation to February 2014.

i Twelve-month variation to March 2014.

Table A-27

Latin America and the Caribbean: fiscal balances

(Percentages of GDP)

Primary balance

Overall balance

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America and the Caribbean b

0.0

-0.1

-0.7

-0.8

-2.4

-2.6

-2.9

-3.1

Latin America c

0.1

-0.3

-0.6

-0.8

-1.6

-2.0

-2.4

-2.7

Argentina

-0.1

-0.1

-1.4

-2.0

-1.9

-1.9

-2.6

-4.0

Bolivia (Plurinational State of) d

-0.2

2.7

2.0

…

-1.1

1.8

1.4

…

Brazil

2.3

2.0

1.6

0.4

-2.6

-2.0

-2.9

-4.4

Chile

1.8

1.2

0.0

-1.2

1.3

0.6

-0.6

-1.8

Colombia

-0.3

0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-2.8

-2.3

-2.4

-2.4

Costa Rica

-1.9

-2.3

-2.8

-3.4

-4.1

-4.4

-5.4

-6.1

Cuba

…

…

…

…

-0.3

-4.5

1.2

-0.3

Dominican Republic

-0.1

-2.9

-0.4

-0.4

-2.2

-5.4

-2.7

-3.0

Ecuador

-0.7

-1.0

-4.5

-3.5

-1.6

-2.0

-5.8

-4.9

El Salvador

-0.1

0.5

0.6

…

-2.3

-1.7

-1.8

…

Guatemala

-1.3

-0.9

-0.6

-0.9

-2.8

-2.4

-2.1

-2.3

Haiti

2.5

-0.5

-0.7

-1.0

2.1

-0.8

-1.0

-1.3

Honduras

-3.2

-4.3

-5.6

-2.5

-4.6

-6.0

-7.9

-5.2

Mexico e

-0.7

-0.7

-0.5

-1.5

-2.5

-2.6

-2.4

-3.6

Nicaragua

1.7

1.9

1.0

0.1

0.7

0.9

0.1

-0.8

Panama

-1.1

-0.8

-2.3

-1.0

-3.3

-2.7

-4.2

-3.1

Paraguay

1.0

-1.6

-1.6

-1.4

0.7

-1.8

-2.0

-1.8

Peru

2.1

2.4

1.5

1.2

1.0

1.3

0.5

0.2

Uruguay

1.9

0.4

0.9

0.9

-0.6

-2.0

-1.6

-1.6

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

-1.8

-2.2

1.1

-0.2

-4.0

-4.9

-2.0

-2.8

The Caribbean f

-0.2

0.1

-0.8

-0.7

-3.6

-3.3

-4.1

-3.9

Antigua and Barbuda

-2.7

1.1

-2.4

0.9

-5.3

-1.4

-4.4

-1.9

Bahamas g

-3.4

-4.3

-2.5

-0.3

-5.7

-6.7

-5.3

-3.4

Barbados h i

1.6

-1.4

-5.4

0.5

-4.4

-8.0

-12.5

-7.1

Belice h

2.0

1.5

1.0

1.1

-1.4

-0.4

-2.3

-1.7

Dominica

-6.7

-7.5

-7.4

-4.5

-8.6

-9.0

-9.5

-6.1

Grenada

-0.7

-2.1

-3.4

-1.9

-3.2

-5.5

-6.6

-6.3

Guyana

-1.6

-3.6

-3.4

-3.9

-3.1

-4.7

-4.4

-4.9

Jamaica h

3.9

5.4

7.6

7.6

-5.9

-4.1

0.1

-0.7

Saint Kitts and Nevis

8.9

17.2

17.9

4.5

2.5

11.2

14.0

2.7

Saint Lucia

-1.8

-3.0

-2.9

-4.0

-4.6

-6.5

-6.7

-7.7

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

-0.2

0.3

-3.9

-3.6

-2.7

-2.1

-6.4

-5.8

Suriname

-1.0

-1.8

-4.6

-4.4

-2.0

-2.7

-6.0

-5.7

Trinidad and Tobago j

-0.7

-0.4

-1.4

-1.1

-2.7

-2.3

-3.1

-2.7

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Preliminary figures.

b Simple averages for the 33 countries reported. Coverage corresponds to central government.

c Simple averages. Does not include Cuba.

d General government.

e Federal public sector.

f Simple averages.

g Fiscal years, from 1 July to 30 June.

h Fiscal years, from 1 April to 31 March.

i Non-financial public sector.

j Fiscal years, from 1 October to 30 September.

Table A-28

Latin America and the Caribbean: central government revenues composition

(Percentages of GDP)

Total revenue

Tax revenue

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America and the Caribbean b

22.7

22.5

22.9

22.6

17.7

17.6

17.7

17.9

Latin America c

18.8

19.2

19.5

19.3

14.5

15.0

15.1

15.4

Argentina

17.7

18.4

19.7

22.7

16.2

16.9

17.5

19.2

Bolivia (Plurinational State of) d

32.8

35.1

36.8

…

20.0

20.9

21.6

…

Brazil

23.8

24.4

24.3

24.0

21.3

21.5

21.7

21.4

Chile

22.7

22.2

21.0

20.5

18.7

19.0

18.2

18.0

Colombia

15.2

16.1

16.9

17.0

13.5

14.3

14.3

14.8

Costa Rica

14.5

14.3

14.3

14.1

13.6

13.5

13.5

13.3

Cuba

46.7

37.4

42.6

31.7

24.0

15.2

21.8

20.5

Dominican Republic

13.5

14.0

14.7

15.3

12.9

13.5

14.0

14.6

Ecuador

21.7

22.3

21.6

19.9

12.3

14.0

14.5

13.8

El Salvador

15.4

15.8

15.9

…

13.8

14.4

15.1

…

Guatemala

11.6

11.6

11.6

12.2

10.9

10.8

11.0

11.6

Haiti

14.4

15.6

15.4

13.6

12.9

13.9

13.6

12.7

Honduras

17.0

16.6

17.0

18.7

14.8

14.7

15.0

16.8

Mexico e

22.5

22.5

23.7

22.4

8.9

8.4

9.7

10.3

Nicaragua

17.0

17.5

16.8

17.0

14.3

14.8

14.7

14.8

Panama

16.7

17.1

16.3

16.6

10.7

11.6

11.4

11.8

Paraguay

18.0

19.0

17.2

16.9

13.8

14.3

13.1

12.2

Peru

18.8

19.2

19.2

19.2

16.0

16.5

16.5

16.7

Uruguay

20.9

20.4

21.3

21.4

18.6

18.4

18.8

19.2

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

22.5

23.5

26.8

23.1

12.5

13.2

13.5

14.4

The Caribbean f

26.7

26.1

26.2

26.8

21.8

21.5

21.2

21.4

Antigua and Barbuda

20.4

20.1

18.0

20.5

18.1

18.7

16.7

17.4

Bahamas g

18.4

16.6

18.1

20.9

16.2

14.9

14.6

17.2

Barbados h i

29.2

27.8

26.0

29.1

26.8

26.4

23.9

25.9

Belize h

28.4

26.7

28.1

28.9

22.5

22.4

23.3

23.7

Dominica

29.4

27.1

28.7

30.3

23.5

22.6

22.7

22.1

Grenada

23.1

20.7

20.8

22.2

19.2

18.7

18.6

18.5

Guyana

25.6

24.7

23.3

27.0

21.2

20.3

20.3

19.9

Jamaica h

26.2

26.2

28.5

26.5

23.5

24.4

25.2

23.8

Saint Kitts and Nevis

37.0

42.6

44.6

…

20.8

20.2

20.8

…

Saint Lucia

24.5

23.9

24.5

26.4

22.0

21.0

22.6

21.8

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

27.9

26.9

25.6

…

22.6

23.0

21.3

…

Suriname

24.8

24.3

22.9

…

18.7

18.3

18.2

…

Trinidad and Tobago j

31.6

32.1

31.9

33.9

27.9

28.4

27.0

27.0

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Preliminary figures.

b Simple averages for the 33 countries reported.

c Simple averages. Does not include Cuba.

d General government.

e Federal public sector.

f Simple averages.

g Fiscal years, from 1 July to 30 June.

h Fiscal years, from 1 April to 31 March.

i Non-financial public sector.

j Fiscal years, from 1 October to 30 September.

Table A-29

Latin America and the Caribbean: central government expenditure composition

(Percentages of GDP)

Total expenditure

Interest payments on public debt

Capital expenditure

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America and the Caribbean b

25.1

25.0

25.8

25.7

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.5

4.7

4.7

5.0

5.0

Latin America c

20.4

21.2

21.9

22.0

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.9

4.2

4.6

4.7

4.6

Argentina

19.6

20.2

22.4

26.7

1.8

1.7

1.2

2.0

2.4

2.2

2.8

4.5

Bolivia (Plurinational State of) d

33.9

33.2

35.4

…

1.0

0.9

0.6

…

12.1

10.8

13.6

…

Brazil

26.4

26.4

27.2

28.4

4.9

4.0

4.5

4.8

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

Chile

21.4

21.6

21.6

22.3

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.8

Colombia

18.0

18.4

19.3

19.5

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.8

3.2

2.9

Costa Rica

18.6

18.7

19.6

20.2

2.2

2.1

2.5

2.7

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.4

Cuba

48.4

42.0

41.4

32.0

…

…

…

…

5.7

5.7

5.3

3.2

Dominican Republic

15.7

19.3

17.4

18.3

2.1

2.4

2.4

2.6

3.2

5.8

3.3

3.7

Ecuador

23.3

24.2

27.4

25.5

0.8

0.9

1.2

1.4

10.1

10.5

12.3

11.0

El Salvador

17.6

17.5

17.7

…

2.2

2.2

2.3

…

3.1

3.3

2.9

…

Guatemala

14.4

14.0

13.8

14.5

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.4

4.0

3.3

3.0

3.3

Haiti

12.3

16.4

16.4

14.9

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

2.3

5.2

5.1

3.2

Honduras

21.6

22.6

24.8

23.9

1.3

1.7

2.3

2.7

4.6

4.6

5.2

5.1

Mexico e

25.0

25.1

26.0

26.0

1.8

1.9

1.9

2.1

4.8

4.8

5.5

4.9

Nicaragua

16.3

16.6

16.7

17.8

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

3.5

3.7

3.7

4.5

Panama

20.1

19.8

20.5

19.7

2.2

1.9

1.9

2.1

7.6

7.8

9.1

7.7

Paraguay

17.3

20.8

19.2

18.8

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.5

4.0

4.8

4.0

3.6

Peru

17.8

17.9

18.7

19.0

1.1

1.0

1.1

1.0

4.3

4.4

4.7

4.7

Uruguay

21.5

22.4

22.9

23.1

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.6

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

26.4

28.4

28.8

25.8

2.1

2.7

3.1

3.1

3.1

4.8

4.9

4.8

The Caribbean f

30.1

29.3

30.2

30.7

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.3

5.4

4.8

5.4

5.8

Antigua and Barbuda

25.7

21.5

22.4

22.6

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.1

2.2

0.6

1.3

2.2

Bahamas g

24.1

23.3

23.4

24.2

2.4

2.4

2.8

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3.2

Barbados h i

33.7

35.8

38.5

36.2

6.0

6.6

7.1

7.6

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.9

Belize h

29.9

27.1

30.4

30.7

3.4

1.9

3.3

2.8

5.4

4.6

6.1

5.8

Dominica

38.0

36.1

37.6

36.5

1.9

1.5

2.1

2.1

13.3

12.5

11.8

11.8

Grenada

26.3

26.2

27.3

28.7

2.5

3.4

3.1

4.2

6.3

5.0

6.8

7.2

Guyana

28.7

29.4

28.0

32.6

1.5

1.1

1.0

1.0

9.5

9.7

8.2

12.3

Jamaica h

32.0

29.8

27.1

27.4

9.7

9.5

7.5

8.5

3.9

2.8

2.5

1.9

Saint Kitts and Nevis

34.5

31.3

30.6

25.6

6.4

5.9

4.0

4.0

4.3

3.7

4.5

4.5

Saint Lucia

29.1

30.4

31.2

34.1

2.9

3.5

3.7

3.7

7.7

6.9

7.7

8.9

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

30.6

29.0

32.6

…

2.5

2.4

2.5

…

3.5

2.9

6.5

…

Suriname

24.9

26.7

27.4

…

1.0

0.9

1.3

…

4.9

4.4

4.4

…

Trinidad and Tobago j

34.2

34.4

35.1

36.2

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.7

5.1

5.1

5.6

5.5

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Preliminary figures.

b Simple averages for the 33 countries reported.

c Simple averages. Does not include Cuba.

d General government.

e Federal public-sector.

f Simple averages.

g Fiscal years, from 1 July to 30 June.

h Fiscal years, from 1 April to 31 March.

i Non-financial public sector.

j Fiscal years, from 1 October to 30 September.

Table A-30

Latin America and the Caribbean: central government gross public debt

(Percentages of GDP)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America b

42.5

35.6

30.1

29.3

30.4

30.0

29.4

30.8

32.3

32.2

Argentina

60.2

51.7

44.2

39.0

39.6

36.1

33.3

35.1

39.0

…

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

75.4

49.7

37.2

34.0

36.3

34.6

34.5

29.1

28.3

26.3

Brazil c

67.4

56.7

58.5

58.9

61.3

53.6

53.6

60.5

56.7

61.7

Chile

6.9

4.9

3.9

5.1

5.8

8.7

11.0

11.9

12.8

13.5

Colombia

39.1

38.1

33.3

34.1

34.6

33.7

33.4

32.7

35.4

35.8

Costa Rica

37.5

33.3

27.6

24.8

27.4

28.8

30.3

35.1

36.0

37.9

Dominican Republic

21.1

20.1

18.1

24.4

28.0

28.8

30.0

33.2

38.9

36.2

Ecuador

32.4

26.5

25.2

20.6

14.9

17.8

17.3

20.2

23.1

25.2

El Salvador

37.5

37.7

34.9

34.4

42.6

42.6

41.7

45.7

44.2

43.2

Guatemala

20.7

21.6

21.4

19.9

22.8

24.0

23.7

24.3

24.6

24.0

Haiti d

44.1

36.2

33.6

42.3

34.3

22.8

23.9

28.0

30.4

…

Honduras

44.7

28.7

17.4

20.1

23.9

29.2

31.5

34.9

42.6

41.4

Mexico e

19.6

20.2

20.6

24.0

27.2

27.2

27.5

28.2

31.1

32.3

Nicaragua

71.3

54.8

32.3

28.6

32.3

32.6

31.4

30.9

30.4

28.3

Panama

61.0

56.5

49.0

41.4

41.7

39.7

37.9

37.0

37.0

34.7

Paraguay

29.3

23.2

15.9

14.3

14.6

14.1

12.1

12.6

13.7

16.0

Peru

38.4

31.4

27.4

25.6

25.2

22.9

20.1

18.9

18.2

17.1

Uruguay

66.7

61.6

52.9

51.6

46.7

40.9

40.3

39.2

39.7

39.7

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

33.1

24.0

19.1

14.0

18.2

32.0

25.1

27.5

32.3

30.3

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Preliminary figures.

b Simple averages.

c General government.

d Data to September 2013. Does not include public sector liabilities owed to commercial banks.

e Federal government.

Table A-31

Latin America and the Caribbean: non-financial public sector gross public debt

(Percentages of GDP)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 a

Latin America and the Caribbean b

60.6

53.7

47.4

46.9

50.5

50.7

49.7

51.3

52.5

52.4

Latin America b

45.2

38.1

32.7

31.8

33.1

32.5

31.7

33.1

34.8

34.4

Argentina

72.4

62.1

52.9

46.4

43.8

36.3

33.9

35.1

39.5

…

Bolivia (Plurinational State of) c

78.1

52.5

40.1

36.8

39.5

38.1

34.6

32.9

31.5

30.0

Brazil d

67.4

56.7

58.5

58.9

60.9

53.6

53.6

60.5

56.7

61.7

Chile

12.3

9.9

8.7

11.6

12.1

14.7

17.7

18.9

20.5

21.9

Colombia

50.2

48.2

44.3

43.7

45.1

46.2

42.8

40.5

43.3

43.1

Costa Rica

42.9

38.3

31.8

29.7

34.0

35.7

37.7

41.7

44.0

42.4

Dominican Republic e

21.1

20.1

18.1

24.4

28.0

28.8

30.0

33.2

38.9

36.4

Ecuador

34.5

28.5

27.0

22.1

16.3

19.6

18.3

21.2

24.2

26.2

El Salvador

39.7

39.9

37.0

36.9

45.2

45.1

44.1

47.9

46.5

45.6

Guatemala

21.5

21.9

21.6

20.1

23.3

24.4

23.9

24.5

24.8

24.0

Haiti e f

44.1

36.2

33.6

42.3

34.3

22.8

24.0

28.0

30.4

…

Honduras e

44.7

28.7

17.4

20.1

23.9

29.2

31.5

34.9

42.6

37.9

Mexico g

22.1

22.2

22.4

26.5

34.3

31.7

34.4

34.8

38.3

39.0

Nicaragua

71.4

55.1

32.9

29.4

34.2

34.8

32.2

31.6

31.1

28.9

Panama

62.0

57.2

49.6

41.9

45.4

43.0

38.5

37.6

37.5

36.3

Paraguay h

31.1

24.6

19.0

17.3

16.8

14.9

12.7

14.2

15.3

18.0

Peru

39.3

32.3

28.5

25.8

23.7

23.5

21.4

19.7

19.6

19.1

Uruguay

71.4

66.4

57.8

56.6

49.4

43.5

45.5

44.5

44.6

44.1

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) e

33.1

24.0

19.1

14.0

18.2

32.0

25.1

27.5

32.3

30.3

The Caribbean b

83.0

76.5

69.0

68.8

76.1

77.2

76.0

77.8

78.4

78.6

Antigua and Barbuda

101.8

90.5

81.1

81.5

95.7

87.1

86.7

89.4

87.0

95.0

Bahamas i

35.5

36.2

36.9

37.4

44.1

45.7

50.2

54.5

60.5

61.8

Barbados j

49.5

49.4

51.4

53.3

63.2

72.0

77.8

85.7

97.6

97.7

Belize j

99.5

92.5

83.6

79.4

82.2

72.3

70.7

72.8

78.2

75.9

Dominica

95.7

89.4

81.2

72.0

66.4

73.1

70.7

72.7

71.4

72.2

Grenada

83.8

87.5

82.9

79.1

90.0

91.8

86.8

88.6

88.4

89.9

Guyana

116.1

93.1

60.0

61.6

60.5

61.2

65.2

62.0

60.5

60.9

Jamaica j

121.1

117.7

113.0

120.3

134.4

136.1

131.5

134.1

131.9

128.1

Saint Kitts and Nevis

160.6

149.5

134.6

127.6

142.0

151.4

141.1

129.3

110.0

95.7

Saint Lucia

68.2

65.3

64.7

61.9

64.0

65.5

66.3

71.0

76.5

80.2

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

65.9

62.3

55.5

58.4

64.7

66.7

65.5

67.0

64.9

72.2

Suriname

44.0

29.2

23.0

27.9

27.6

27.5

27.6

27.1

34.5

29.9

Trinidad and Tobago k

36.8

32.1

28.8

34.5

54.4

53.8

48.6

56.8

57.6

62.6

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.

a Preliminary figures.

b Simple averages.

c Refers to the external debt of the non-financial public-sector and central-government domestic debt.

d General government.

e Central government.

f Data to September 2013. Does not include public sector liabilities owed to commercial banks.

g Federal public-sector.

h Domestic debt includes liabilities owed to the central bank only.

i Fiscal years, from 1 July to 30 June.

j Fiscal years, from 1 April to 31 March.

k Fiscal years, from 1 October to 30 September.

[1] If the sharp fall in the price of oil recorded in November persists, the terms of trade of the oil-exporting countries will deteriorate further, while the countries that import this resource will benefit..

[2] The regional figure is average inflation across the countries, weighted for their share of the region’s total population.

[3] Core inflation does not include food, beverage or fuel prices.

[4] Global Economic Prospects, October 2014.

[5] The median GDP growth rate for the region was 2.8%, broadly in line with the 2013 figure.

[6] The regional figure is average inflation across the countries, weighted for their share of the region’s total population.

[7] Core inflation does not include food, beverage or fuel prices.

[8] Data refer to August 2014 compared with August 2013.

[9] Data issued by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) for the consumer price index of the Greater Buenos Aires Province (IPC-GBA) (2013 data) and for the national urban consumer price index (IPCNu) published since January 2014 were used to calculate the 12-month inflation figure to October 2014 for foods and beverages.

[10] See ECLAC, Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2014 (LC/G.2619-P), Santiago, Chile, pp. 134-147.

[11] In the weighted average for these countries, the share of employment in the three main branches of the tertiary sector contracted less (-0.1 percentage points), and the fall was sharpest in commerce (-0.2 percentage points), while the share of community, social and personal services actually increased slightly.

[12] Registered employment can be created by the generation of new jobs or the formalization of existing informal jobs.

[13] In Argentina, the survey of labour indicators indicates that registered private-sector employment in the main cities expanded by 0.3% on average in the first three quarters of 2014.

[14] Hourly underemployment refers to employed workers working less than a certain (nationally established) number of hours, who would like to work more and are available to do so.

[15] See Shwetlena Sabarwal, Nistha Sinha and Mayra Buvinic, “How do women weather economic shocks? A review of the evidence”, Policy Research Working Paper, No. 5496, Washington, D.C., World Bank, 2010.

[16] See, ECLAC, Fiscal Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean: Tax reform and renewal of the fiscal covenant (LC/L.3580), Santiago, Chile, 2013; J. Gómez Sabaini and D. Morán, “Tax policy in Latin America: Assessment and guidelines for a second generation of reforms”, Macroeconomics of Development series, No. 133 (LC/L.3632), Santiago, Chile, 2014.

[17] See Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies (ICEFI), “Evolución de las reformas tributarias recientes en América Central”, Boletín de Estudios Fiscales, No. 14, 2011; and J.C. Gómez Sabaini and D. Morán, op.cit.

[18] Global Economic Prospects, October 2014.

Table of Contents

Maintitle

Copyright

Contents

Executive summary

Chapter I

Chapter II

Chapter III

Chapter IV

Chapter V

Chapter VI

Chapter VII

Statistical annex