ARUBA . BAHAMAS . BARBADOS . BELIZE . BR. VIRGIN ISLANDS . CUBA . DOMINICA . DOMINICAN REPUBLIC . GRENADA . GUYANA . HAITI . JAMAICA PUERTO RICO . SAINT KITTS & NEVIS . SAINT LUCIA . SAINT VINCENT & THE GRENADINES . SURINAME . TRINIDAD & TOBAGO . U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS GENERAL LC/CAR/G.714 lc-> 2 January 2 0 0 3 ORIGINAL: ENGLISH PRELIMINARY OVERVIEW OF CARIBBEAN ECONOMIES 2002 900027433 9Õ0Õ27433 - BIBLIOTECA CEP AL UNITED NATIONS jÿ ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT AND COOPERATION COMMITTEE Table of Contents Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................... 1 Member States of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS).......................................................... 2 General overview..................................................................................................................................... 2 Fiscal policy..............................................................................................................................................2 Monetary Policy....................................................................................................................................... 4 Sectors o f economic activity.................................................................................................................... 4 Inflation, unemployment and wages........................................................................................................5 Other selected Caribbean countries......................................................................................................................... 6 Barbados .....................................................................................................................................................6 General overview.......................................................................................................................................6 Fiscal policy............................................................................................................................................... 6 Monetary Policy.........................................................................................................................................7 Sectors o f economic activity................................................................................................................... 8 Inflation, unemployment and wages........................................................................................................8 The external sector.................................................................................................................................... 9 Belize .....................................................................................................................................................9 General overview.......................................................................................................................................9 Fiscal policy................................................................................................................................................10 Monetary Policy......................................................................................................................................... 11 Sectors o f economic activity.....................................................................................................................11 Inflation, unemployment and wages........................................................................................................ 12 The external sector..................................................................................................................................... 12 Jamaica .....................................................................................................................................................13 General overview....................................................................................................................................... 13 Fiscal policy................................................................................................................................................14 Monetary Policy......................................................................................................................................... 15 Sectors o f economic activity..................................................................................................................... 16 Inflation, unemployment and wages........................................................................................................ 17 The external sector..................................................................................................................................... 17 Trinidad and Tobago.................................................................................................................... 18 General overview.......................................................................................................................................18 Fiscal policy................................................................................................................................................ 19 Monetary Policy......................................................................................................................................... 20 Sectors o f economic activity.....................................................................................................................21 Inflation, unemployment and wages........................................................................................................22 The external sector..................................................................................................................................... 22 Statistical appendix 24 Executive Summary The document examines the preliminary economic performance o f selected Caribbean countries for the current year. In 2002, the member States of the Organisation o f Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), Barbados and Belize registered contractions or declines in economic activity while Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago managed to maintain their GDP growth rates with respect to the previous year. With the exception o f Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, Caribbean countries recorded an increase in their budget deficit responding to increases in current and capital expenditures that were not matched by higher tax revenues. The fiscal gap was financed by domestic sources in an effort to avoid increases in the external indebtedness. The conduct of monetary policy evolved in a context o f excess liquidity for Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago. The Barbadian authorities used the excess liquidity to finance the fiscal deficit brought about by a counter cyclical policy stance. Trinidad and Tobago implemented a new framework for monetary policy based on interest rate targeting that was accompanied by open market operations to increase its effectiveness. In the cases o f Jamaica and Belize the main concern centered on the pressures in the foreign exchange market. These were counteracted by a decline in international reserves and stricter monetary policy. For their part the OECS economies maintained their traditional strong backing o f the domestic currency. In most o f these countries the agricultural sector was negatively affected by climatic conditions. The expansion o f the manufacturing sector was hampered by a lack of competitiveness. Tourism activity did not fully recover from the adverse external conditions that marked the sector in 2001. The balance o f payments result reflected a modest growth in exports and an increase in imports that mirrored the movements in economic activity. The service balance surplus narrowed as tourism activity faltered and foreign direct investment flows noted, in general, a decrease in relation to the previous year. Introduction During 2002, service-based Caribbean economies (OECS and Barbados) contracted. Resource based economies (Jamaica, Belize, Trinidad and Tobago) maintained the rate o f GDP growth o f the previous year. The behavior o f service-based economies reflected the underperformance o f the tourism sector and a manufacturing sector that exhibits a lack o f competitiveness by international standards due in part to high costs and inadequate levels o f technology. Within this grouping OECS economies were confronted with high indebtedness levels, which has become, especially in the case o f Dominica, an important constraint to their short and long-term economic development. Caribbean countries have responded by a proposal to create an institutional framework that includes a programme o f assistance for Dominica, the creation o f a stabilization fund and a programme for regional economic transformation. For its part Barbados adopted a counter-cyclical fiscal, based on increasing capital expenditures to stimulate demand and economic growth. The resulting fiscal deficit was financed by domestic sources rather than by having recourse to external funding. The financing strategy consisted in channeling the excess liquidity prevailing in the economy to the government mediated by the intervention o f the Central Bank. The main challenge faced by resource-based economies was one o f monetary management. All countries attempted to decrease interest rates to spur the demand for loans and economic activity. However, the extent to which governments could implement this policy was limited by impending instability in the money and foreign exchange markets. Volatile exchange rate movements confronted Jamaica. The authorities made use o f their net international reserves and later on during the year o f interest rates to bring stability to the foreign exchange market. In the case o f Belize the foreign exchange market was also subject to devaluation pressures forcing the Central Bank to adopt a strict monetary policy. This monetary stance should also help control the fiscal deficit, which reached 11% o f GDP in the previous fiscal year. For Trinidad and Tobago, the authorities adopted a policy o f interest rate targeting based on the Repo rate (the rate o f interest charged by the Central Bank to commercial banks for overnight borrowing). This new monetary framework was implemented at a time o f excess liquidity in the commercial banking system and the Central Bank was forced to intervene through open market operations. This document examines the preliminary economic performance for selected Caribbean economies for the year 2002. The analysis extrapolated the behavior for the entire current year based on available data and predictions up to the month o f November 2001. The countries included in the document are the member States o f the Organisation o f Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), Barbados, Belize, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago. For each o f these, the document presents a general overview followed by analyses o f fiscal and monetary policies, the performance o f the sector o f economic activity, prices, wages and employment and the external sector. 2 MEMBER STATES OF THE ORGANIZATION OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN STATES (OECS) General overview During 2002 economic activity contracted due to a stagnant agricultural sector that was confronted with adverse climatic conditions, a tourism sector that has not recovered from the adverse shocks o f the previous year, a manufacturing sector that remains uncompetitive and a weak external demand. As an aggregate OECS economies registered -1.5% growth for 2002. At the country level Dominica recorded the highest drop in GDP growth (-6%). At the aggregate level, the decline in growth translated into a lower tax revenue intake mainly due to the underperformance o f international trade and transactions taxes. Jointly with a higher level o f current expenditure this led to a widening o f the fiscal current account deficit and rising stocks o f public debt. The fiscal situation o f Dominica was particularly delicate, as the country was not able to service its internal or external debt payments. Dominica’s current economic situation brought regional organizations and national institutions to bear upon the fiscal vulnerability and general macroeconomic situation in the OECS economies. OECS countries have steadily registered declining rates o f growth since the 1970s while, at the same time, they have accumulated significant fiscal and external gaps creating debt sustainability problems and making the countries more dependent on foreign financing which, in turn, has exhibited a declining trend. Caribbean governments decided to create a stabilization fund to allow the countries in the subregion to meet the institutional and economic challenges brought about by the current international trends o f globalization and liberalization o f markets. The demand for loans remained stable reflecting the slowdown in growth. The asset o f commercial banks’ sheets was easily matched by their liabilities as the growth in deposits outpaced that o f loans. This behavior, which translated into excess reserves, facilitated the accumulation o f foreign exchange and the backing o f the domestic currency. Fiscal policy At a regional level, the OECS economies registered a deficit in their fiscal accounts (estimated at 8% o f GDP on the basis o f preliminary data) due to the combined effects o f a lower tax revenue intake and an increased level o f expenditure. The decline in tax revenues responded to the slowdown in economic growth and, in particular, to its effect on import demand and import duties. The change in expenditure reflected movement in wages and salaries, interest payments and, to a lesser extent, capital expenditures. At the individual country level the fiscal performance was mixed. Preliminary data show that Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica and St. Kitts and Nevis recorded the highest deficits while 3 Grenada and Saint Lucia managed to reduce their fiscal imbalance with respect to the previous year. In Antigua and Barbuda tax revenue increased by 9% while current expenditures (i.e., wages) rose 27%. The expansion in international trade and transactions (13%), which represents 60% o f total tax revenues, was partly compensated by the modest performance o f taxes on domestic goods and services (-5% in the first semester). Current expenditures reflected an increase in wages and public employment during the first quarter o f the year. Dominica’s fiscal outturn was influenced by the country’s economic contraction, its financial constraints in meeting its wage and debt payments, by the underperformance o f international trade and transactions revenue and the government’s commitment to carry out an adjustment programme. Current expenditure declined -1% and capital expenditures -45%. At the same time tax revenues also followed a similar trend and decreased -3% . For its part international trade and transactions revenues saw a mild increase o f 5%. St. Kitts and Nevis fiscal performance is explained by the increase in expenditure since the tax effort as measured by the ratio o f total tax revenue to GDP remained above that obtained for 2001. The rise in tax revenue responded to the behavior o f non-tax revenues and international trade and transactions despite the decision o f the government to forego the payment o f the hotel accommodation tax between October 2001 and October 2002. Non-tax revenues were boosted by the bigger than expected receipts from the offshore banking sector and water services operations. Expenditures rose due to higher transfers to public firms, interest payments due to the increase in foreign loans, and capital expenditures. Dominica and St. Kitts and Nevis financed their deficit through external sources. Dominica’s commitment to stabilization helped secure the necessary funding. St. Kitts and Nevis placed a bond in the international market for US$30 million in the first quarter o f the year. Finally, Antigua and Barbuda financed its deficit by having recourse to domestic sources. For their part, Grenada and Saint Lucia managed to reduce their fiscal disequilibrium by cutting capital expenditures (-41% and -55% , respectively, between January-July 2001 and 2002). At the Special Meeting o f the Heads o f Government o f the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), Guyana, August 2002, the governments o f the subregion proposed a framework intended to stabilize and transform the Caribbean economies. The framework included a programme o f assistance for Dominica, the creation o f a stabilization fund and a programme for regional economic transformation. The framework responds to the recognition that OECS economies face widening fiscal and external disequilibria and are characterized by weak and narrow production structures and export sectors. This state o f affairs has partly led these economies to accumulate debt without securing the required growth o f income for its service payments. 4 The programme o f assistance to Dominica will provide a buffer stock for the country’s adjustment efforts. The stabilization fund is aimed at alleviating the short-term macroeconomic difficulties faced by Caribbean economies. The programme for regional economic transformation contemplates increasing the competitiveness o f the productive sector, reforming the fiscal systems o f Caribbean economies, and assisting and enhancing the role o f the private sector in economic development. Monetary policy In a monetary arrangement such as the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union the supply o f money is endogenous and responds to the change in money demand. In 2002 the demand for loans remained stable in comparison to the previous year reflecting the slowdown in growth. The demand for loans grew 2% between July 2001 and 2002. Private individuals remained the most important borrowers with 44% o f the bank loan portfolio. Business firms accounted for 33% of the total. The main beneficiary productive sectors o f bank loans were tourism, construction, agriculture, manufacturing and transportation accounting for 13%, 9%, 7%, 5.2% and 5.4% of non-personal loans, respectively. The growth in the asset side o f the commercial bank’s balance sheets was more than compensated by the growth in total deposits (8%) leading to an accumulation o f reserves. An indicative signal o f this trend was the decline in the loan deposit ratio from 0.84 to 0.75 between June 2001 and July 2002. The excess reserves were used to acquire foreign assets (14%) and also deposited at the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB). Commercial banks’ statutory reserves and deposits at the monetary institution increased by 79% for the aforementioned period. The Central Monetary institution in turn also used part o f the reserves to build up the stock o f foreign reserves allowing the reserve coverage ratio to stand at 97% largely above the 60% statutory requirement. The Union’s aggregate money base, narrow money and broad money increased by 5.1%, 5.3% and 5.5% between September 2001 and 2002. For the most part individual OECS countries mirrored this behavior. Available data for the period July 2001-July 2002 show that the loan deposit ratio for Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Saint Lucia, declined from 0.86, 0.83, 0.80, 0.20, 0.80 and 1.03 to 0.84, 0.81, 0.74, 0.14, 0.78, 0.92 for the said period. The exceptions to this trend were Anguilla and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines with increases from 0.68 and 0.70, to 0.70 and 0.72. In a similar vein, the rates o f growth o f the monetary aggregates followed closely on average that o f the Currency Union. Narrow money and broad money expanded on average at 5.6% and 5.4%. Base money grew at a lower pace and evidenced a higher degree o f volatility (2% average growth with a standard deviation o f 13%). Sectors of economic activity The output o f main sectors o f economic activity (agriculture and tourism) contracted in the first quarter of the year with a slight rebound in the third quarter. 5 Banana production in the Windward Islands declined by 6% in the first quarter o f the year reflecting a 27% decline in Dominica that compensated for the increased production in Saint Lucia, Grenada and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (4%, 3% and 0.3%, respectively). However, the satisfactory performance o f the banana industry in the second quarter outdid the poor results obtained in the first quarter and banana production as well as banana exports were reported to have increased in the first semester o f the year. In this period, Saint Lucia’s output expanded by 56% and the exports and earnings o f the Windward Islands grew by 16%. This reflected an increase from $417 to $422 per ton exported. In the final quarter o f the year the banana sector output reflected the damage caused by Hurricane Lili (September 2002) which, in the case o f Saint Lucia, destroyed half o f the crop. Rehabilitation efforts should help to partially mitigate its effects. The tourism industry still struggled with the effects o f the deceleration o f the United States economy and the September 11th 2001 effects. The performance o f the tourism sector during the first quarter o f the year was characterized at the aggregate level by a decrease o f 10% in stay-over visitors. At the individual country level the performance o f the tourism sector was mixed. On the one hand, Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines recorded increases in the number o f stay-over visitors (2%, 15% and 22%, respectively). On the other hand, the number o f stay-over visitors to Saint Lucia and Dominica dropped by 0.4% and 34.8%, respectively. However, in the third quarter officials indicated that recuperation in the performance o f the sector is visible. Available figures for Saint Lucia point to an increase in stay-over arrivals by 14% between August 2001 and 2002. However, the outturn for the cmise ship sector was still negative (-39% in arrivals for the same period). Prices, employment and wages The stability in international prices and the contraction in spending contributed significantly to low rates o f inflation in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union Area. The average rate o f inflation was 2.2% with a 0.9% standard deviation. Grenada, Montserrat and St. Kitts and Nevis recorded the highest rates o f inflation (3%, 3% and 3.7%, respectively) while Saint Vincent and the Grenadines registered the lowest rate o f increase in prices (1.4%). In the first three cases, inflation is associated with higher public utility tariffs, food prices and transportation costs. Though no official figures are available for employment and unemployment for the whole year, the slowdown in growth and the performance o f the tourism industry determined the trends in both variables. Finally as OECS economies seek to adjust the level o f expenditures in line with that o f revenues to equilibrate their public finances, wages in the public sector are likely to remain at their current levels or increase moderately. 6 OTHER SELECTED CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES BARBADOS General overview The economy o f Barbados registered a negative growth rate for the second consecutive year (-2.7% and -0.4% in 2001 and 2002). The decline in tourism activity (-3%) and the sugar subsector (-10%) drove the contraction in economic activity. The output in most o f the other sectors stagnated. The authorities reacted to the slump by increasing capital expenditures. The counter­ cyclical fiscal policy strategy combined with a constant tax yield ratio led to an increase in the fiscal deficit. The accumulation o f liquidity in the banking system due to the slower growth in the demand for loans facilitated the financing o f the fiscal gap. The gap was closed mainly through central bank credit and by drawing on government deposits. This led to an increase in high-powered money while at the same time allowing the money supply to expand with the requirements o f the real economy. The economic contraction also had important effects on the external sector. Export earnings were reduced and tourism revenues declined. At the same time, import demand faltered. The overall result was a marginal widening o f the current account deficit. The external gap could not, however, be financed by the surplus in the capital and financial account as it recorded a drop o f more than US$200 million responding to the contraction in public net direct foreign investment. Fiscal policy The central government registered a fiscal deficit equivalent to 4.1% o f GDP representing a slight increase from the 3.6% registered in 2001. The result corresponded to an increase in government expenditures (37.8% and 38.4% with respect to GDP in 2001 and 2002) since the tax ratio remained constant (32%). Direct tax revenue earnings declined as a result o f the underperformance o f corporate tax earnings (5% and 4% o f GDP in 2001 and 2002). The behavior o f corporate tax revenue responded in turn to low levels o f profitability. For its part, personal tax revenue earnings decreased from 14.5% to 13.7% o f GDP. The underperformance o f direct taxes was compensated by indirect tax revenue collection and, in particular, value added taxes (B$488 and B$517 million in 2001 and 2002). Finally despite the decline in total import value, international trade tax revenues expanded (22%) due to the adoption o f a 60% bound tariff on selected agricultural products. The increase in expenditures is accounted for by capital expenditures (18% and 21% o f total expenditures in 2001 and 2002) that responded to a counter-cyclical policy strategy o f the authorities. Capital expenditure projects included ongoing work on infrastructure, ports and 7 transportation facilities. For its part, current expenditures increased marginally (1.2% and 32% of GDP in 2001 and 2002). Within this category, public wages increased following a wage negotiation agreement for April 2001-March 2003. The effects o f the increase in wages became visible starting from the second quarter o f 2002. Interest payments on the domestic debt declined due to low interest rates and an unchanging stock o f short-term treasury bills (B$647 million). The deficit was financed mainly from domestic sources. Net foreign financing decreased as the government did not make use o f international capital markets and the amortization payments outweighed part o f the external financing corresponding to project funds. Monetary policy Base money increased by 36% while the banking system’s liabilities to the private sector recorded no growth with respect to the previous year (6% in 2001 and 2002). The behavior o f monetary aggregates was determined by the decline in growth and the fiscal stance o f the government. The contraction in economic activity dimmed business sales expectations. This outlook affected business profitability and their debt repayment capacity. Entrepreneurs responded to the current demand conditions by depleting inventories. Other agents in the economy also entertained a similar state o f expectations. As a result, the overall demand for loans increased marginally (0.3% and 2% in 2001 and 2002) while at the same time, there was a marked absence o f attractive alternatives to holding commercial banks’ deposits, thus inflating commercial banks’ reserves. The reserves o f commercial banks reached B$693 million in July representing an increase of 73% with respect to the same month in the previous year. Excess reserves represented 70% of the total. Most o f this excess liquidity o f the banking system was deposited in the Central Bank. Commercial banks’ deposits at the central monetary institution rose by 66% for the year (33% in 2001). This monetary policy strategy had two main effects. First, the accumulation o f commercial banks’ reserves coupled with an adequate stock o f government deposits at the central bank allowed the monetary institution to finance a greater part o f the government’s budget deficit (70% o f the total) without the latter increasing its public foreign debt stock. The foreign debt stock rose the previous year following attempts by the government to revamp a stagnant economy (20%, 26% and 27% o f GDP for the total national debt in 2000, 2001 and 2002, respectively). The government external debt increased from 62% to 67% in 2000 and 2001. Second, this policy mitigated movements in interest rates that could have put pressure on the fixed exchange rate regime by permitting the Central Bank to mop up the liquidity o f the banks and by excluding the need for new domestic debt issues. The outstanding stock o f government treasury bills remained at B$494 million between January and August and their yield increased from 1.5% to 2.6% in the same period. For its part the lending weighted average interest rate on loans declined marginally from 10.97% to 10.79%. In December 2002, the 8 monetary authorities decided to implement a decline in the lending and loan rates o f interest in an effort to reduce the operating costs of firms and banking institutions. Sectors of economic activity The sugar and manufacturing sectors’ share o f GDP continued to shrink or remain stagnant during the current year (21% and 19% for sugar and 8.5% and 8.6% for manufacturing for 2001 and 2002, respectively) highlighting the growing importance o f the services sector (78% and 79% o f the total in 2001 and 2002) and in particular the need to promote tourism activities. The sugar sector registered a contraction (-10%). Sugar activity was affected by climatic conditions and the late start o f the harvest season translating into a fall in the sugar cane yield (-10% with respect to the previous year). The non-sugar sector stagnated (1%) due to a combination o f lower volumes in the output o f milk and fish landings (-2% and -7%, respectively for 2002) and a marginal recuperation for chicken (-7% and 1% in 2001 and 2002, respectively). The manufacturing sector followed a similar trend. Its performance responded to the general economic conditions and to a government campaign to promote expenditure on domestic products. Tourism registered a decline (-3%) as a result o f the underperformance o f the sector during the first semester o f the year (-10%). However, the third quarter noted a marked recovery in the dynamism o f tourist arrivals. According to preliminary data, total tourist arrivals increased by 2%, 6% and 8% in July, August and September with respect to the corresponding months o f last year. It is expected that for the whole calendar year tourist arrivals and cruise ship arrivals will register rates o f growth o f -3% and -1% (-7% and -1% for 2000, respectively). Inflation, unemployment and wages The rate o f inflation remained stable following the trend o f international prices (2.8% and 2.1% measured by the rate o f increase in consumer prices in 2001 and 2002). The most important components o f the retail price index, food, medical and personal care, housing and household operations and supplies registered declines or modest expansions. The rate o f unemployment increased from 9.9% to 10.5% in consonance with the prevailing economic conditions. Preliminary data indicate job losses in the general services, construction and manufacturing sectors and employment gains in the tourism and dependent sectors, such as the wholesale and retail trade sectors. Following wage negotiations for April 2001-March 2003 public sector wages increased by 5.8%. 9 The external sector The overall result in the balance o f payments was negative (US$-23 million) reflecting a marginal increase in the current account balance (US$94 and US$97 million in 2001 and 2002 and 4% o f GDP in 2002) and a substantial decline in the surplus in the capital and financial account (US$288 and US$74 million in 2001 and 2002). The current account deficit reflected a slight increase in the trade deficit and similar results in the services and income balances to those obtained in 2001 (US$584 and US$97 million, respectively for 2002). In turn, the trade deficit figure is explained by a combination o f the decline in exports (-12%) due to the decrease in the output o f sugar and that o f electronic components (-14%, -16%, respectively), the stagnation o f chemicals, food and beverages and by the reduction in imports (-5%) due to the drop in the level o f activity. Compared to the previous year the outturn o f the capital and financial account reflected in part the decision to use internal rather than external sources o f finance. In the previous year the government turned to the international capital market for a loan o f US$150 million as a precautionary measure to confront the adverse repercussions o f September 11th 2001 events. As a result, long-term public investment reached US$150 million in 2001 decreasing to US$18 million in 2002. For its part private sector foreign direct investment (US$133 and US$55 million in 2001 and 2002, respectively) was directed to the tourism sector and infrastructure projects. BELIZE General overview GDP growth (4.6% and 3.7% in 2001 and 2002) reflected aggregate supply and demand conditions. Aggregate supply stagnated as the major economic sectors registered declines or mild increases in their rates o f growth. The agricultural and agro-processing sectors did not show signs o f having fully recovered from adverse climatic conditions, which affected their productivity and output. For its part the tourism sector registered a mixed performance. Government expenditures and, in particular, capital expenditures mainly drove aggregate demand. Demand expanded during the first part o f the year and then contracted as the authorities opted for a policy to reduce absorption and the levels o f foreign external debt in order to maintain a sustainable balance o f payments position. In accordance with this behavior the fiscal deficit, which yielded a deficit equivalent to 11% o f GDP due to expanding expenditures in the fiscal year 2002/2001 is expected to wind down to 5% in the current fiscal year 2002/2003. The fiscal deficit was financed by an increase in net domestic assets which, jointly with a decline in net foreign assets, led to a modest rise in high-powered money. Commercial banks faced a similar situation increasing domestic credit to satisfy a rising loan demand while recognizing a decrease in foreign assets. 10 In order to abate the pressure in the foreign exchange market, the authorities opted for a strict monetary policy that would complement and reinforce the fiscal stance. In conjunction with an expected increase in exports as the productive sector recovers, propelled by rehabilitation efforts, this strategy should narrow the current account deficit from 21% to 12% o f GDP. The economic policy strategy also takes into consideration the fact that as the government reduces its foreign indebtedness the capital and financial account should register a reduction in the magnitude o f capital inflows. Fiscal policy The fiscal deficit o f the central government increased (10% and 11% o f GDP for fiscal year 2002/2001 and 2001/2000, respectively) due to a greater level o f expenditures (35% and 36% o f GDP for fiscal year 2001/2002 and 2002/2001) that was not supported by an equally significant tax effort. Total revenues (25% o f GDP for both fiscal year 2002/2001 and 2001/2000, respectively) reflected the performance o f international trade and transactions taxes (7% and 8% o f GDP; 30% and 34% o f total revenues for both fiscal years) and more specifically the contribution o f the revenue replacement duty on oil. The intake derived from this tax resulted from the difference between international oil prices ex-refinery (which declined in the first semester o f the calendar year) and the domestic prices charged to the consumer at the pump (which were not adjusted to the current conditions in the petroleum market). The rest o f the taxes maintained their share in GDP. The behavior o f expenditures was determined by increases in both current and capital expenditures (14% and 1.3%; 18% and 14% o f GDP for fiscal year 2001/2002 and 2002/2001). Current expenditures responded to interest payments and wages and salaries (3% and 10% o f GDP for the fiscal year 2001/2002). Capital outlays were allocated to domestically financed projects representing an increase o f 113% relative to the previous fiscal year. The projects included land development, land administration and road and drainage infrastructure. For its part capital expenditures financed from foreign sources declined from BZ$184 to BZ$125 million. The budget deficit was financed from domestic and foreign sources (57% and 43% o f the total). Domestic financing was provided by a change in government deposits at the Central Bank deriving from the disbursement o f an external loan corresponding to the previous fiscal year. Net external financing reflected disbursements for BZ$153 million, which surpassed amortization payments o f BZ$64 million. The financing strategy led to an increase in the external debt, which according to some sources stood at 80% o f GDP at the end o f 2001. Available data for the fiscal year 2002/2003 show an improvement in the fiscal accounts. International trade and transactions through the revenue replacement duties accounted for the bulk o f the increase in current revenue (8% between April-June 2002 relative to 2001). Current expenditures declined (-4%) as wages and salaries and interest payments subsided. Capital 11 expenditures also contracted (15%). The planned target is to reach a deficit equivalent to 5% o f GDP. In accordance with these objectives the government is seeking to reduce the sizeable stock o f domestic and foreign debt. As a first step, the government issued an international bond in order to change the short-term profile o f its external debt. M onetary policy The financing strategy o f the government increased the net domestic assets o f the Central Bank by close to BZ$50 million. At the same time the economy registered an increased excess o f demand for foreign exchange leading to a weakening in the net international reserve position o f the monetary authorities (-23%). The overall result was a decrease in money base growth from 8% to 6% between 2001 and 2002. Commercial banks found themselves in a similar situation in spite o f the increasing demand for credit (9%) fueled by personal loans, manufacturing activity, real estate and tourism. Financial intermediaries responded to the demand for credit by expanding the supply o f loans and attracting deposits. In particular, commercial banks sought to increase their liquidity by offering new time deposit contracts. The increase in the demand for liquidity led banks to partly reduce their excess reserve ratios and concomitantly the interest rates on loans. The weighted average loan rate declined by 10 basis points to 15.3% in the first quarter and by more than 50 basis points in the second quarter to 14.6%. However, as in the case o f the Central Bank the increase in domestic liquidity was partially offset by the decline in commercial banks foreign net assets. In consonance with this behavior M2 increased by a mere 3%. The authorities have sought to alleviate the pressures in the foreign exchange market by partly legalizing the existing parallel foreign exchange market, by applying stricter monetary and fiscal policies and widening the scope o f action to absorb excess liquidity. As a result, at the beginning o f the second quarter o f the year (April, 2002) the government allowed the establishment o f foreign exchange houses to trade at non-official exchange rates. Later on in the year, in July-August, the cash-reserve requirement for all deposits was increased by 2 percentage points. Finally, the authorities introduced legislation to increase the legal limit to issue treasury bills to enhance the efficiency of sterilization operations. Sectors o f econom ic activity Sugar cane delivery increased (7%) due to the introduction o f more efficient methods o f production. Sugar production witnessed a more modest increase (3%) due to the decline in cane purity leading in turn to a lower cane-sugar ratio. The cane-sugar ratio increased from 9.85 to 10.17. The performance o f the citrus sector (-24%) is explained by the damage caused by Hurricane Iris. In accordance, orange and grapefruit deliveries also contracted (26% and 16%, 12 respectively). This in turn caused concentrate production and output o f juices to decline (-26% and -36%, respectively). For its part, banana production has shown some signs o f recovery from hurricane damage. The recovery o f the banana sector has been facilitated by readily available sources o f finance for rehabilitation purposes. The performance o f the tourism sector yielded mixed results. During the first semester tourist stay-over arrivals declined -1.5%, with sea and air arrivals decreasing -4% and -25%. However, cruise ship arrivals increased from 20 742 to 105 316 as a result o f agreements with cruise lines for year round port calls to Belize. This could provide an indication o f an initial rebound from the adverse effects caused by the slowdown o f the United States economy and the September 11thevents. Inflation, unem ploym ent and wages The rate o f inflation measured by the rate o f change o f the consumer price index remained at the level o f the previous year (1.1% and 1.5% for 2001 and 2002). The behavior o f inflation reflected an increase in import costs (0.5%), higher fuel costs for the consumer and a tariff adjustment that took place in January for basic telephone services. At the component level, the most important increase was registered by transport and communications (9% with 17% o f the weight in the consumer price index) followed by medical care (3% and 2% o f the weight). These increases were partly offset by insignificant and opposite movements in other components o f the price index and, in particular, in food, beverages and tobacco, clothing and footwear, and rent and water (0.7%, -0.4%, -1.4% and 35%, 9%, 17% of the weights in the consumer price index). While there are no official projections for the unemployment rate for 2002, the tightening o f the monetary and fiscal stance and hence the concomitant contraction in the level o f absorption will probably lead to an increase in the rate o f unemployment which stood at 9.3% in 2001. The external sector The global result o f the balance o f payments is expected to be negative for the year. This outturn is contingent on an expected deficit in the current account balance that would not be offset by the projected surplus in the capital and financial account. The current account deficit would narrow from 21% to 12% o f GDP between 2001 and 2002. This would reflect, on the one hand, an improved export performance (10%) as the country slowly regains its export base partly as a result o f rehabilitation efforts and as tourism recovers from the adverse external shocks o f the previous year. On the other hand, this result would respond to a decline in import demand (-8%) brought about by the adoption o f tighter monetary and fiscal policies. 13 Available government data for the first semester indicates that exports expanded (8%) due mainly to the free trade zones as domestic exports, with a few exceptions, contracted. Sugar, bananas, citrus and marine products exports fell by -13%, -53% and -22% , respectively. For its part imports declined (-8%) behaving according to the projected outcome. The invisible trade balance reflected the recovery o f the tourism sector (10%) led by increased foreign exchange inflows from cruise ship arrivals. At the same time the repatriation o f profits increased above the expected levels. The surplus on the capital and financial account is expected to decrease (US$157 and US$78 million in 2001 and 2002) mainly due to the commitment o f the public sector to repay its external debt. This will partly reflect the fact that external debt amortization payments are projected to rise above disbursement inflows (100% and 86%, respectively). Finally foreign direct investment is expected to decline considering that in 2001 the privatization o f the water and sewerage company let to a significant inflow o f foreign direct investment. JAM AICA General overview Jamaica’s economy (1.7% and 2% GDP growth in 2001 and 2002) evolved in a context marked by supply shocks, adverse external conditions and a climate o f uncertainty prevailing in the foreign exchange market. Also during the year Jamaica held general elections in October. 1 The main sectors o f economic activity registered declines or stagnant growth. The flood rains o f November 2001, and those o f May-June and September 2002 hampered agricultural and manufacturing output. The performance o f the mining sector reflected temporary disruptions in the production cycle. Finally, tourism indicators did not show a recovery from the negative impact o f the slowdown o f the United States economy and the September 11th events. The fiscal accounts registered a higher than expected imbalance due to the increase in current expenditures and the decrease in tax revenues. For its part capital expenditures were used as the adjustment leverage and contracted in spite o f the rehabilitation measures following the flood rains. The deficit was financed through foreign and domestic sources. The foreign finance component contributed to increased pressures in the foreign exchange market, which was characterized by uncertainty regarding the future path o f the economy’s nominal anchor. The depreciation in the exchange rate, the effects o f the flood rains on the supply of agricultural products jointly with higher wages fed into inflationary expectations forcing the intervention o f the monetary authorities. The Central Bank intervened in the foreign exchange market to dampen and stabilize the fluctuations in the exchange rate by decreasing the stock o f 1The People’s National Party (PNP) won the election with 53% of the vote. The opposing political party, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) obtained 47% of the vote. 14 foreign net international reserves. In the third and fourth quarter o f the year, they also responded by tightening the monetary policy stance. The performance o f the external sector reflected the general economic situation. Exports declined due to the effects o f the flood rains and the lack o f competitiveness o f non-traditional exports. The services balance was negatively affected by the decrease in tourist expenditures and the income balance result reflected higher capital outflows. The resulting current account balance was however more than compensated by foreign direct private investment leading to a positive change in international reserves. Fiscal policy The central government accounts outturn showed a deficit equivalent to -6% o f GDP (-6.3% in 2001). The fiscal outturn resulted from a combination o f lower than budgeted tax revenues and higher than budgeted expenditures due in part to adverse external conditions. The decline in tax revenues is explained in greater part by the behavior o f taxes on income and profits registering a negative deviation o f 14% from its target for the available data for the fiscal year 2002/2003 (April-September). Within this category, the decrease in taxes on interest is the single most important explanatory variable (-16% with respect to the fiscal year 2001/2002 and -43% below target). Its behavior is explained by the unfulfilled expectation that some public firms would no longer be exempted from the payment o f interest on investment on government securities. The underperformance o f international trade taxes (11% over the fiscal year 2001/2002 but -7% below the set target) also contributed to the overall result. The movement in international trade taxes responded to the modest growth in travel tax, general consumption tax and the special consumption tax due to the sluggish economic growth and a tourism sector that has not fully recovered from the downturn o f the previous year. Total expenditure rose by 18% (April-September 2001 and 2002) reflecting increases in current expenditure since capital expenditures contracted (-25% with respect to the previous year and -15% with respect to its budgeted amount). Current expenditures responded to wages and salaries and to interest on the external debt. Wages rose by 12% and interest payments on the external debt by 60%. The government’s deficit was financed from domestic and foreign sources. Domestic sources o f finance included, among others, the issue o f long-term bonds in an effort to lengthen the maturity period o f the debt and the drawing o f government balances at the Central Bank. Foreign financing included the raising o f US$300 million through the placement o f a 15-year Eurobond. As it stands the stock o f total domestic debt is evaluated at J$331 619 million with Local Registered Stock (LRS) representing 70% o f the total. For its part the stock o f external debt is equivalent, on accrual basis, to US$4 231 million (54% o f GDP). Bond issues represent 42% and bilateral and multilateral debt 27% o f the total. 15 Monetary policy The most important objective o f monetary policy was to maintain the stability o f the foreign exchange rate to comply with the Central Bank’s inflation target. The weighted average exchange rate moved from J$47.40 at the end o f December 2001 to J$49.27 at the end of September reflecting a depreciation o f 4%. The behavior o f the exchange rate responded to the pressures created in the market by the government’s placement o f the Eurobond to finance its deficit and lower than expected foreign exchange net flows due to sluggish growth in exports, tourism, the increased private capital outflows due to the prevailing uncertainty in the market, and government service o f the external debt. The monetary authorities responded to this state o f affairs by intervening in the foreign exchange market selling foreign currency, which led to a decline in the central bank’s stock of net foreign assets. Net international reserves declined from US$1 841 to US$1655 million between December 2001 and October 2002 (-10%). Also starting in September the authorities reinforced their intervention by increasing interest rates, a policy measure that had not been adopted during the first eight months o f the year to avoid the possible negative impact on output and employment. The decline in net international reserves partly offset the government’s use o f its deposits at the Central Bank, which increased that institution’s net domestic asset component o f the money base. As a result the money base rose 2% between January 2001 and October 2002. However, the decline in the reserve deposit ratio in March 2002 from 10% to 9%, the decrease in agent’s preference to holding cash rather than deposits (14.56% and 13.97% between September 2001 and 2002) and the decline in interest rates during the first nine months o f the year fueled the demand for credit. The Central Bank decreased the repurchase rates in July and declared a further reduction for 270-day and 365-day rates at the beginning o f August. Commercial banks followed suit and decreased the weighted loan rate decline from 19.76 (August, 2001) to 17.85 (August, 2002). The decline in yield for government securities validated the movement in the rates o f interest. The demand for loans increased by 42% between August 2001 and August 2002. Consumer loans represent 42% o f the total. Among the productive sectors tourism, transport and communication, and manufacturing were the main credit recipients (10%, 7% and 6% o f the total). The rise in loans allowed the buildup o f deposits and the increase in narrow, quasi and broad money by 7%, 6% and 5%, respectively. The authorities mitigated the trend in interest rates at the beginning o f the last quarter of the year with little impact on loan demand by increasing the price o f credit o f two o f its instruments to reinforce the need for stability in the exchange rate market and to meet the announced inflation target. 16 Sectors of economic activity GDP growth (2%) reflected the expansion o f the domestic components o f aggregate demand and the slowdown o f the main economic sectors contributing to aggregate supply. The rate o f growth o f the agricultural sector (-8.5% and 8.1% in 2002 and 2001, respectively)2 contracted due to adverse climatic conditions resulting from the floods and heavy rain that affected the country in November-December 2001, May-June and September 2002. The floods affected agricultural crops (mainly vegetables and ground provisions), sugar cane output by the consequent delay in reaping, coffee, the poultry subsector and banana production. According to official sources the May-June and September flood damages to agricultural crops are valued above J$10 million. In July, the government undertook rehabilitation efforts through a Flood Relief Assistance Programme in order to assist farmers to restart production with an initial stock o f funds o f $J21 million. The mining sector (-2%) also experienced a decline in activity driven by the decrease in bauxite production. Preliminary data for the September quarter show declines o f -3.6% and 1.5% in crude bauxite and alumina production. The performance o f the mining sector responded to disruptions in output, technical difficulties experienced by a refinery and also to the flood rains, which watered the soil and caused mechanical difficulties to the transportation infrastructure. The manufacturing sector stagnated (-1.9%) due to lower than expected growth in the food processing industry, petroleum refinery activities, tobacco industry and textile and wearing apparel. The flood rains negatively affected the food processing industry and, in particular, sugar and poultry production. The output in petroleum products suffered from the temporary shutdown in a major refinery due to repairs and maintenance but also benefited from the increment in demand o f the government following the restoration o f normal operating capacity in the power generating plants. For its part, the lack o f competitiveness hampered the expansion o f the textile and wearing apparel subsector. The construction sector (2%) benefited from the liquidity conditions in the economy as reflected in the dynamism o f residential construction and from the rehabilitation activities following the flood rains. The performance o f tourism indicated that the sector has not recovered from the effects o f the July disturbances, the slowdown o f the United States economy and the September 11th events. Total visitor arrivals saw a decrease o f -6% with respect to the previous year. Within this category stopover and cruise ship passengers show a contraction o f -5% and -6% and visitor expenditure a decrease o f -9%. 2 The figures presented in this section refer to estimates for the first nine months o f the year 2002. 17 Inflation, unemployment and wages The point-to-point rate o f inflation (December 2001-December 2002) is estimated at 7% (8.7% in 2001). The rate o f inflation outturn reflected mainly supply shocks. These included the effects o f the flood rains on agricultural prices, exchange rate depreciation, higher than programmed oil prices and the monetary policy stance. According to official sources core inflation explained 44%, 52% and 33% o f headline inflation in the first three quarters o f the year. The major contributors to the rate o f increase in prices were by category, food and drink (in particular the subgroups starchy foods and vegetables and fruits (8% and 14% for the 12th month point-to-point September 2001 and 2002) and housing and other housing expenses. The movement in the latter component o f the price index is explained in part by oil prices, the exchange rate depreciation and by the 50% increase in the minimum wage implemented at the beginning o f the year. The rate o f unemployment is likely to increase above 15% reflecting the general stagnation o f most economic sectors. The external secto r3 The current account balance registered a deficit (US$-330 million) that was offset by the financial and capital surplus leading to an increase in reserves o f US$30 million. This end-result was however lower than the US$500 million obtained for the preceding year. The current account outturn was the result o f an increase in the trade deficit (US$675 and US$691 million in 2001 and 2002) and in the income balance (US$170 and US$183 million in 2001 and 2002) and a decline in the surplus in the services balance (US$227 and US$150 million in 2001 and 2002). The performance o f total goods exports (US$612 and US$541 million in 2001 and 2002) was adversely affected by the impact o f the rain floods on agriculture and the temporary disruptions in production caused to the mining sector and in particular to alumina exports (US$277 and US$238 million between 2001 and 2002). For its part, non-traditional exports (US$108 and US$91 million in 2001 and 2002) also experienced a decrease explained by the competitiveness difficulties facing the apparel sector and the interruption in the production o f limestone during April and May. Imports also decreased, albeit at a lower rate than that o f exports (US$1495 and US$1442 million in 2001 and 2002). The behavior o f import demand was determined by the fall in raw materials (US$788 and US$696 million) since all other categories recorded increases with respect to the previous year. 3 The external sector figures refer to the period January-May. 18 The decline o f the surplus in the services balance reflected the laggard recovery o f the tourism sector. Finally the deficit in the income balance resulted from the repatriation o f profits and dividends, capital outflows motivated by the uncertainty in the foreign exchange market and the payments corresponding to the external debt service. The disequilibrium in the current account was offset in the main by private investment capital inflows (US$299 million), which accounts for the surplus in the financial account. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO General overview Trinidad and Tobago’s GDP growth noted little change from the previous year (3.3% to 2.7% in 2001 and 2002).4 The rate o f expansion o f the oil sector surpassed that recorded in 2001 (2.4% and 4.5% in 2001 and 2002) but was unfavorably affected by declines in the price o f crude oil during the first semester relative to the previous year and by the uncertainty prevailing in the petroleum market. The performance o f the non-oil sector responded to the dynamism o f the services sector (4.2%) and the recovery o f the agricultural sector (-2% and 11% in 2001 and 2002) due to the improvement in sugar production. For its part, manufacturing output contracted (3.6% and 1.1% in 2001 and 2002). The fiscal year (2001/2002) ended with a balanced budget allowing the government to repay part o f its foreign and domestic debt obligations. This result reflected a decrease in the tax revenue effort whose negative fiscal effects were counterbalanced by declining capital expenditures. Following the general elections (October, 2002) that broke the prevailing political deadlock, the new authorities presented the budget for the coming fiscal year (2002/2003) which is expected to yield a deficit o f 1% o f GDP.5 The fiscal outturn facilitated the conduct o f monetary policy that followed the guidelines provided by a new framework based on interest rate targeting. The main challenge confronted by the authorities was to establish, within this new framework, the rules for trading in the money market in an environment characterized by excess liquidity due to the decrease in the demand for loans. The Central Bank engaged in sterilization operations and at the same time eased its monetary stance to stimulate the demand for credit, which remained, however, irresponsive to changes in the price o f credit throughout the greater part o f the year. 4 The difference in the rate o f GDP growth between both years is due to an adjustment of imputed bank service charges. 5 General elections for parliament and the executive branch (Prime Minister) were held in December 2001 but led to a tie between the two major political parties failing to elect a Prime Minister. Following constitutional rules, the president appointed one o f the candidates as interim prime minister. However, frustrated efforts to elect a speaker of the House of Representatives and to hold parliament led ultimately to the October 2002 elections. The People’s National Movement (PNM) won the election. 19 The external sector yielded a balanced result due to the surplus in the current account, which compensated the deficit in the capital and financial account. The surplus in the current account, albeit a declining one in relation to the previous year, is explained by the increase in insurance flows. The deficit in the capital and financial account reflected external debt payment obligations. The outcome o f the balance o f payments, jointly with other factors, made possible for the authorities to maintain a strong reserve position permitting the exchange rate and, in turn, inflation to move within planned target ranges. Fiscal policy The central government registered a balanced fiscal position (a TT$69 million surplus and 0.1% o f GDP) for the fiscal year 2001/2002. This was the result o f a decline in target revenues that were matched by lower than planned fiscal expenditures (27% and 24% o f GDP in 2001 and 2002). The behavior o f total tax revenues responded to a decline in the income and profits tax earnings (-17% with respect to the fiscal year 2000/2001 and 47% o f total revenue). In turn, this is explained by the decline in tax payments o f oil companies (-38% with respect to 2001) due to lower oil prices relative to the previous fiscal year, and higher capital allowances and deductions. Oil prices remained below the official US$22 benchmark used to estimate budget revenues. The tax intake on goods and services increased (6.5% to 7.2% o f GDP in the fiscal years 2000/2001 and 2001/2002) as VAT revenues expanded (13%) while international trade tax revenues remained at the level o f the previous fiscal year (6% o f total government revenue and 0.22% of GDP for fiscal years 2001/2000 and 2002/2001). For its part non-tax revenues (9% and 13% in fiscal years 2001/2000 and 2002/2001) also expanded reflecting an increase in the remittances of dividends from public firms to the central government. The decline in expenditures is explained by the contraction in the capital component (-24% with respect to the previous fiscal year). Current expenditures rose marginally (16.3% and 16.8% o f GDP for the fiscal years 2001/2000 and 2002/2001) mirroring increases in wage payments and emoluments (30% o f total expenditure) and goods and services nominal outflows (12% for both budget lines with respect to the previous fiscal year). The fiscal result allowed the government to reduce its borrowing requirements and undertake significant amortization payments. Net o f repayment domestic sources provided the bulk o f the government's financing needs which declined from TT$390 to TT$114 million For its part net external finance turned out to be negative as amortization payments surpassed the government borrowing requirements. In spite o f these efforts, total public debt increased by 3.8% due mainly to central government contingent liability on guaranteed debt used to finance infrastructure projects. The budget for the new fiscal year 2002/2003, presented and approved in October, is estimated to yield a deficit o f 1% o f GDP due to payments to settle salary arrears. On the revenue 20 side o f the accounts the main features o f the budget include among others, a reduction in the top marginal rate o f income and corporation tax (35% to 30%); the removal o f taxes on medication and export subsidies to comply with World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements. On the expenditure side the government is planning to increase spending on health and education by 10% and 12%, respectively. M onetary policy During the course o f the year the monetary authorities switched their policy strategy from money supply to interest rate targeting. In May 2002, the Central Bank introduced the Repo rate as the key indicator for the monetary policy stance. The Repo rate refers to the rate o f interest charged by the Central Bank to commercial banks for overnight borrowing. This financial option comes with the possibility o f a repurchase agreement by the Central Bank with an interest rate termed the Reverse Repo rate. Funds are purchased by the Central Bank at a 50 basis point discount over the Repo rate. The Repo rate was established at 5.75% and the reverse rate at 5.25%. The Repo rate also constitutes the reference point for other rates such as the discount rate (charged on borrowing from the Central Bank to cover temporary periods o f liquidity shortages) and the special deposit rate (the rate at which excess reserves are remunerated when held at the Central Bank). The main challenge for the authorities consisted in implementing this change in monetary policy strategy, which set de facto a ceiling and floor for trading in the money market, at a time o f excess liquidity. Excess liquidity responded in part to a climate o f uncertainty due to the political stalemate prevailing throughout the year, and the continued slowdown in the United States economy. One the one hand, the demand for loans from the private sector declined steadily throughout the year. Between March-August 2002-2001, the rate o f growth o f credit demand decreased from 12% to 6%. The demand for loans outstanding also declined from 10% to -3%. On the other hand, commercial bank deposits increased at an average rate o f 15%. As a result the ratio o f outstanding loans to deposits decreased from 0.69 to 0.65. Banks’ excess reserves were deposited in part at the Central Bank. Within this context the Central Bank opted to decrease the Repo rate from 5.75% to 5.25% while at the same time sterilizing the excess liquidity through the issue o f treasury bills. Between October 2001 and August 2002 the sales o f the treasury bills issued by the Central Bank amounted to TT$1 700 million. The overall result was a general decline in the rates o f interest, which however was not totally successful in stimulating credit and aggregate demand. The bank rate declined from 13% to 7.3% between January and September. The basic prime rates followed this trend decreasing from 14.50% to 12% for the same period. The treasury bill rate was reduced from 5.9% to 4.1%. The effect o f the reduction o f loan interest rates on banks’ profitability was mitigated by a similar decline in deposit interest rates. The weighted average six-month deposit rate was lowered from 6.5% to 3.7% and from 6% to 3.7% for domestic currency and dollar deposits. The behavior o f the money supply aggregates was responsive to the interest rate objectives. Base money, narrow money and broad money rose 9%, 7%, and 14% between August 2002 and 2001. 21 The conduct o f monetary policy was facilitated by the buildup in net international reserves, which maintained the stability o f the exchange rate. In spite o f a lower than expected international oil price, net international reserves increased from US$1897 to US$1969 million (4%) representing eight months o f imports and twice the money base. The exchange rate appreciated marginally (2% between October 2002 and 2001 and 0.1% between October and January). Sectors o f econom ic activity The performance o f the petroleum sector (2.4% and 4.5% for 2001 and 2002) is explained in part by the decline in international oil prices in the first part o f the year with respect to the previous year (-8.3% on average between March-June, 2002), the slowdown o f external demand and by the long-term policy objectives o f the authorities to orient their efforts and resources to the development o f the natural gas industry. As a result, while domestic crude production increased (5% for January-September 2002, both in terms millions o f barrels and millions o f cubic meters) the development and exploratory drilling as measured by the depth drilled in thousands o f meters stagnated (-0.1% for January-June 2002). Natural gas production and utilization rose 2.5% and 3.4% for the period October 2001-September 2002, respectively, and is expected to increase 20% by 2004 due to the expansion o f plant capacity and the development of the distribution infrastructure. For its part the petrochemical subsector recorded a mixed outcome. Nitrogenous fertilizers stagnated (1% and -8% between October 2001-September 2002 for production and external sales, respectively). Contrarily, methanol and iron and steel production expanded (6.6% and 19% for October 2001- September 2002 and October 2001 and May 2002, respectively) due to the improvement in plant capacity and methods o f production. This, in spite o f the decrease in the international price o f methanol and wire rods (-44% and -7% for the period March to June 2002). The revival o f growth in the agricultural sector (-3% and 11% in 2001 and 2002 respectively) responds to the dynamism o f sugar. Sugar output expanded (-6% and 21% in 2001 and 2002) despite the decrease in the sugar-cane ratio, financial constraints and harsh competition. The decline in manufacturing (3.6% and 1.1% in 2001 and 2002) responded to low levels o f technology, high costs, a discrete marketing strategy profile, and supply constraints in the provision o f raw materials. In terms o f its relative importance the largest declines were registered in food, beverages and tobacco (-2% and 43% o f total manufacturing output). This is largely explained by a change in strategy o f a multinational firm, consisting o f a discontinuation o f the production o f selected domestic dairy products. Construction activity (7.2% and 4.1% in 2001 and 2002) resulted from the contraction in public capital expenditures and a general economic climate that was not favorable to the undertaking o f investment projects in spite o f the decrease in interest rates. 22 Finally, the tourism sector remained depressed (-22% and -1.3% in 2001 and 2002). Available data for the first quarter o f the year indicates contractions in visitor, cruise-ship and yachting arrivals (-15%, -22% and -11%, respectively). Also for the same period occupancy levels remained below 50%. Inflation, unem ploym ent and wages The rate o f inflation measured by the retail price index decreased from 5.6% to 3.9% due to a stagnant demand, a slight appreciation o f the exchange rate and stable international prices. At the group level the most recent available annualized monthly data (August) show that food (11.30%) is the largest contributor to the rate o f increase in prices followed by household supplies and services (1.35%) and drink and tobacco (0.72%). Movements in the opposite direction in housing (-1.05%), clothing and footwear (-2.99%) offset these increases, which account for 32% o f the weights in the retail price index. During the year the labor force increased from 576 450 to 585 800 persons and the number o f persons employed from 514 075 to 521 100. At the sectoral level increments in the labor force were noted in particular in electricity and water, real estate and business services and sugar. The participation rate and the unemployment rate remained at similar levels as those recorded for the previous year (60.7% and 61.2%; 10.8% and 11% for 2001 and 2002, respectively). The external sector6 The external sector registered a balanced result in the global balance o f payments (US$-4 million or 0.04% o f GDP) resulting from a current account surplus (US$148 million) that, in the main, offset the deficit in the capital and financial account (USS-152 million). The current account performance responded to the surpluses in the merchandise and services account (US$125 and US$52 million) that surpassed the deficit in the income account (US$-39 million). Export growth decreased with respect to the previous year (-14%). This behavior responded in part to a decline in trade in mineral fuels and to a rise in petrochemicals (-5% and 1.2%, respectively). Trade in mineral fuels was affected by unfavorable price and demand conditions during part o f the year and by the expiration o f a mineral fuel trade agreement with Venezuela. Manufacturing exports also increased (15% in the first half o f the year) while agricultural exports experienced a contraction. For its part the increment in import merchandise (US$141 million) was determined by the production requirements o f the energy sector. The variations in the real exchange rate (4% for the trade weighted real exchange rate between January and August 2002) also provided part o f the stimulus for the behavior o f import demand. 6 The data here presented refers to the first quarter o f 2002. 23 The surplus in the services account increased from US$34 to US$52 million (2001 and 2002) reflecting the rise in insurance flows (US$8 and US$19 million in 2001 and 2002) since the transportation and travel items recorded declines reflecting the stagnant conditions prevailing in the tourism sector. The deficit in the income account was the result o f foreign currency outflows (US$39 million) due to the repatriation o f profits by foreign owned firms. The capital and financial account outturn (US$-152 million) resulted from the repayment o f the public external debt since foreign direct investment increased with respect to the previous year (US$98 and US$182 million) as a result o f investment perspectives in the energy sector notwithstanding the climate o f uncertainty prevailing in the economy. STATISTICAL APPENDIX THE ORGANISATION OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN STATES (OECS) 26 Table 1 OECS Inflation Rate End of Period 2002 fc Sep-02 Anguilla /1 1.6 (0.5) Antigua & Barbuda 12 1.5 (0.0) Dominica 1.5 0.2 Grenada 3.0 0.8 Montserrat 13 3.7 0.5 St. Kitts & Nevis 3.0 0.1 St. Lucia 2.1 (0.3) St. Vincent & the Grenadines 1.4 1.7 SOURCE: Statistics Department and ECCB /1 Quarterly inflation rate applies to Anguilla 12 Old CPI monthly series for December 2001 13 Old CPI monthly series for August 2002 27 Table 2 OECS Monetary aggregates September 2001 - September 2002 Growth rates Broad Money Narrow Money Sep-01 Sep-02 18.4 473.8 513.4 260.9 287.6 1,145.4 1,180.2 526.2 94.1 88.0 402.3 438.2 1,059.5 1,140.5 183.9 196.2 875.7 944.3 99.7 101.2 24.2 24.6 75.4 76.6 805.9 852.0 110.4 127.6 695.5 724.4 1,183.2 1,221.2 260.6 255.2 922.6 966.1 626.4 671.2 203.9 220.6 422.6 450.6 Sep-01 Anguilla Antigua & Barbuda Dominica Grenada Montserrat St. Kitts & Nevis St. Lucia St. Vincent & the Grenadines SOURCE: ECCB Base Money Sep-02 Sep-01 494.5 531.8 20.7 1,406.2 1,467.9 496.4 Sep-02 28 ________________ Table_3________________ ________________Anguilla________________ Central Government fiscal operations_____ All figures In Millions of Eastern Caribbean Dollars 2001 Qtr I 2001 Qtr II 2001 Qtr III 2001 Qtr IV 2002 Qtr 1 2002 Qtr II 20.77 17.27 0.17 18.02 14.06 0.16 14.04 10.69 0.11 18.85 15.27 0.10 19.33 14.92 0.14 6.67 5.72 3.09 7.20 6.84 3.54 2.34 1.40 1.66 1.19 1.28 0.96 1.45 1.98 0.58 3.30 2.63 1.29 2.09 0.38 2.64 1.19 3.76 0.64 1.73 0.65 9.52 9.46 8.18 7.49 7.97 7.94 8.31 Taxes on Domestic Goods & Services of which: Accomodation Tax Bank Deposit Levy Licenses Stamp Duties 19.87 16.32 0.19 7.58 Current Revenue Tax Revenue Taxes on Property 8.25 7.11 6.46 7.00 6.85 - - - Taxes on International Trade & Transactions of which: Import Duty Export Duty Foreign Exchange Tax Embarkation Tax 0.23 0.75 0.27 0.66 0.29 0.57 0.34 0.47 0.20 0.60 0.14 0.67 Non-Tax Revenue 3.50 3.55 3.96 3.35 3.58 4.41 Current Expenditure Goods & Services Personal Emoluments Interest Payments Domestic External Transfers & Subsidies of which: Pensions 18.42 8.27 9.53 0.18 0.18 0.44 0.44 19.13 7.79 9.67 0.61 0.45 0.16 1.06 0.35 19.86 9.29 9.70 0.36 0.32 0.04 0.51 0.35 20.75 8.78 10.73 0.69 0.48 0.21 0.55 0.36 20.12 8.40 10.20 0.90 0.70 0.20 0.62 0.40 21.79 10.66 10.28 0.46 0.45 0.01 0.39 0.35 Current Account Balance 2.35 0.74 (1.84) (6.71) (1.27) (2.46) - - Capital Revenue - - - - - - - - - - - Grants Of which: Capital Grants 1.94j 1.55 1.38 1.32 0.40 Õ.27 Capital Expenditure 5.23 3.06 2.01 2.12 1.10 0.77 Capital Account Balance (before grants) (5.23) (3.06) (2.01) (2.12) (1.10) (0.77) Overall Balance (0.94) (0.77) (2.47) (7.51) (1.87) (2.96) Financing Domestic ECCB (Net) Commercial Bank (Net) Other External Net Amortization Disbursements Amortization Change in Govt. Foreign Assets 0.94 0.38 (0.46) (0.76) 1.60 0.56 0.56 0.62 (0.06) 0.77 0.16 0.27 0.83 (0.94) 0.61 0.61 0.67 (0.06) 2.47 2.53 0.42 1.48 0.63 (0.06) (0.06) 7.51 7.56 4.76 1.73 1.07 (0.05) (0.05) 0.10 (0.15) 1.87 3.40 (0.93) 2.85 1.48 (1.53) (1.53) 0.19 (1.72) 2.96 4.35 (0.84) 1.96 3.23 (1.39) (1.39) 0.01 (1.40) - 1 SOURCE: Treasury Dept., Ministry of Finance. Anguilla and ECCB - - (0.06) - - - - 29 Table 4 ___________ Antigua and Barbuda___________ Central Government fiscal operations_____ All figures In Millions of Eastern Caribbean Dollars 2002 Qtr I 2002 Q trll 2001 Q trll Current Revenue 80.18 90.62 82.27 104.70 97.82 92.22 Tax Revenue Taxes on Income & Profits Of Which: Company Business Tax Turnover Tax 72.30 9.93 82.61 16.28 72.19 9.25 91.34 12.25 86.65 14.10 82.41 14.51 9.12 0.23 0.55 14.70 0.37 1.16 7.98 0.35 0.86 11.16 0.20 0.88 12.10 0.64 1.33 13.24 0.19 1.03 2.24 1.92 1.09 0.70 4.23 1.56 Taxes on Domestic Goods & Services Of Which: Stamp Duties Hotel and Guest Tax Telecommunications Tax 20.92 17.33 14.40 16.57 20.33 16.24 3.34 9.06 2.59 3.67 6.68 2.54 4.05 3.56 2.37 5.03 3.76 2.06 3.03 6.70 2.33 3.14 5.51 2.23 Taxes on Int'l Trade & Transaction Of Which: Import Duty Consumption Tax Customs Service Charge Foreign Currency Levy 39.21 47.08 47.45 61.82 47.99 50.10 13.36 12.46 5.87 1.92 13.44 20.05 7.45 1.75 13.45 16.14 12.48 1.87 15.63 28.19 13.10 0.98 10.99 19.48 9.81 2.12 12.97 19.90 11.69 1.36 7.88 8.01 10.08 13.36 11.17 9.81 95.08 102.70 135.72 123.89 127.62 124.59 55.49 20.42 9.58 6.90 2.68 9.59 3.99 53.36 29.11 10.05 7.46 2.59 10.18 5.47 66.98 33.61 28.52 18.22 10.30 6.61 3.49 63.37 24.47 21.22 14.72 6.50 14.83 3.86 (14.90) (12.08) (53.45) (19.19) 0.99 - - 0.37 - - - - - - - - - - Taxes on Property Non-Tax Revenue Current Expenditure Personal Emoluments Other Goods & Services Interest Payments Domestic External Transfers & Subsidies OfWhich: Pensions Current Account Balance Capital Revenue Grants Of which: Capital Grants Capital Expenditure Capital Account Balance Overall Balance Financing Domestic ECCB (net) Commercial Banks (net) Other External Net Amortisation Disbursements Amortisation Change in Govt. Foreign Assets Other Arrears Domestic External Memo Items: Principal Repayments 2001 Qtr III 2001 Q tr IV 2001 Q tr l 60.14 40.74 19.02 ^ 16.41 2.61 7.72 3.78 (29.80) 1.20 64.87 32.79 16.17 14.91 1.26 10.76 4.43 (32.37) 0.73 3.50 3.36 11.35 26.66 2.73 4.30 (2.51) (3.36) (11.35) (26.29) (1.53) (3.57) (17.41) (15.44) (64.80) (45.48) (31.33) (35.94) 17.41 6.00 0.42 (6.87) 12.45 4.62 4.62 9.50 (4.88) 6.79 6.79 - 15.44 0.66 (1.46) 0.07 2.05 (4.48) (4.48) 2.75 (7.23) 19.26 19.26 - 64.80 35.11 (1.04) (5.18) 41.33 2.39 2.39 12.52 (10.13) 27.30 26.20 1.10 45.48 (24.78) 0.49 (0.65) (24.62) 54.66 54.66 65.39 (10.73) 15.60 4.57 11.03 31.33 (2.40) 0.12 3.78 (6.30) 1.53 1.53 6.59 (5.06) 35.94 (17.69) (0.06) (7.97) (9.66) (1.20) (1.20) 2.59 (3.79) - - 32.20 18.40 13.80 54.83 28.13 26.70 (4.88) (7.23) (10.13) 10.73 (5.06) (3.79) SOURCE: Ministry of Finance, Treasury Department, Antigua & Barbuda and ECCB - - 30 ___________________ Table_5___________________ __________________ Dominica__________________ Central Government fiscal accounts (m illions EC$) Current Revenue Tax Revenue Taxes on Income, Profit & Capital Gains Of which: Personal Income Tax Corporation Tax Development Levy Taxes on Property Taxes on Domestic Goods & Services Of which: Sales Tax Licenses Consumption Tax Hotel Accomodation Tax 53.50 47.90 37.57 42.34 39.52 39.58 9.66 9.71 8.57 10.91 7.53 2.38 0.54 6.64 3.58 7.01 1.85 8.28 7.51 0.74 7.70 0.52 9.31 0.64 8.12 0.55 6.42 6.96 4.48 2.26 1.14 4.45 1.73 1.27 3.94 1.24 1.07 0.18 0.19 19.67 0.10 25.66 4.33 3.42 1.37 0.13 21.12 4.08 1.51 1.16 0.15 21.07 15.76 6.33 1.75 11.16 12.86 4.51 1.47 9.63 11.99 4.55 1.51 5.59 12.46 4.77 1.59 8.32 58.62 30.58 9.28 8.27 6.55 53.25 29.78 6.38 7.76 3.97 54.35 31.50 8.59 4.38 3.49 55.41 30.34 9.46 6.21 4.27 1.94 2001 Q tr III 43.16 56.35 34.53 8.40 46.72 14.97 8.15 0.76 0.59 8.07 7.78 2001 Q trll 2001 Q tr IV 2002 Q trll 2002 Q trl 44.52 2001 Q trl 45.13 3.08 3.88 2.44 1.56 0.13 17.47 22.89 9.61 12.29 Customs Service Tax/Customs Surcharge Non Tax Revenue 4.45 1.42 10.60 5.95 1.84 Current Expenditure Personal Emoluments Goods & Services Interest Payments Domestic External 59.10 30.37 8.08 12.62 7.75 4.87 Transfers & Subsidies Of which: Pensions 8.03 1.72 10.49 3.79 9.33 0.89 9.88 59.31 30.40 7.55 12.40 8.26 4.14 8.96 2.41 2.39 2.58 2.77 2.69 2.73 Current Account Balance (13.97) (2.27) (10.09) (0.85) (14.79) (7.51) Capital Revenue Grants ofwhich: Capital Grants 0.09 20.40 2.56 6.99 0.35 4.42 0.34 4.87 0.08 1.24 0.79 3.03 4.27 6.99 4.42 4.87 1.24 3.03 Capital Expenditure & Net Lending 19.69 29.65 7.32 5.73 15.32 6.89 Overall Balance (after grants) (13.17) (22.37) (12.64) (1.37) (28.79) (10.58) Financing Domestic ECCB (Net) 13.17 (6.93) (2.58) 9.39 (13.74) 8.70 9.03 10.29 22.37 (3.49) 0.77 12.64 6.00 0.44 8.22 (2.66) 9.60 10.17 12.14 (1.97) 1.37 (11.53) (0.37) 6.06 (17.22) 8.19 10.54 11.91 10.58 2.84 0.31 (5.66) 8.19 3.29 3.66 4.80 (1.37) 28.79 19.74 4.00 (2.67) 18.41 3.69 4.42 6.36 (1.94) (0.57) - (2.35) - (0.73) - (0.37) - 6.27 5.71 (2.96) (3.79) 4.71 4.04 5.36 4.89 4.45 3.95 0.56 - 0.83 0.67 - 0.47 - 0.50 - Taxes on International Trade & Transactions Of which: Consumption Tax Import Duty Commercial Banks (Net) Other Domestic Financing External Net Amortisation Loan Disbursements Loan Amortisation Change In Govt Foreign Asset Other Foreign Financing Arrears Domestic External Other (1.26) (0.33) 11.40 11.19 0.21 I SOURCE: Ministry of Finance. Treasury Department, Dominica and ECCB (1.03) (3.23) 19.59 22.08 23.41 (1.33) (2.49) - - 5.00 9.40 (1.14) 31 T a b le 6 G renada C en tra l G o v e rn m e n t fis c a l o p e ra tio n s A ll fig u re s In M illio n s o f E astern C aribbean D ollars 2001 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002 Q trl Q t r ll Q tr III Q tr IV Q trl Q tr II C urrent Revenue 66.79 77.02 66.98 71.93 65.15 74.22 Tax Revenue 59.62 71.60 60.11 63.15 61.87 70.37 13.56 17.02 14.25 12.38 9.02 14.87 Taxes on Income and Profit ofw hich : Personal C ompany 2.26 2.33 1.85 1.97 2.54 2.40 11.06 14.30 11.03 10.02 6.07 11.84 1.49 5.15 1.76 1.64 2.42 4.03 13.35 12.72 9.31 9.51 15.45 13.86 Value-added Tax 0.10 0.06 Consumption Tax 7.25 7.19 5.65 5.80 6.48 Stam p Duties 0.57 0.75 0.72 0.80 0.87 1.03 Licenses 2.97 1.60 0.50 0.53 6.39 2.45 31.22 36.71 34.79 39.62 34.98 37.61 Taxes on Property Taxes on D omestic Goods & Services o f which: Taxes on International Trade & Transactions - - - 6.95 o f which: 7.00 8.06 7.74 9.13 7.08 7.23 18.29 21.50 20.70 23.23 19.11 20.75 5.70 6.77 5.98 6.76 5.49 6.30 7.17 5.42 6.87 8.78 3.28 3.85 Current Expenditure 63.64 66.01 67.61 60.90 69.22 59.39 Personal Emoluments 29.17 33.25 30.80 34.40 29.90 30.70 Goods and Services 16.50 12.10 12.70 11.30 16.80 9.10 7.27 7.96 8.01 4.70 9.22 6.09 5.43 4.88 5.51 2.10 4.18 2.78 Import Duty Consumption Tax Custom s Service Charge Non-Tax Revenue Interest Payments Domestic External 1.84 3.08 2.50 2.60 5.04 3.31 10.70 12.70 16.10 10.50 13.30 13.50 O fw h ic h : Pensions 3.73 3.70 3.97 2.79 3.30 3.61 Current Account Balance 3.15 11.01 (0.63) 11.03 (4.07) 14.83 Capital Revenue 0.28 0.07 0.06 0.05 2.40 0.05 Grants 6.64 7.18 14.44 16.90 4.52 0.85 5.60 6.10 7.69 14.20 4.52 0.85 30.43 40.77 42.88 48.52 19.80 37.40 (20.36) (22.51) (29.01) (20.54) (16.95) (21.67) 20.36 Transfers and Subsidies O f which: Capital Grants Capital Expenditure Overall Balance Financing 22.51 29.01 20.54 16.95 21.67 6.49 (0.01) (3.98) 27.85 20.11 22.88 ECCB (net) (0.33) (0.64) 0.86 Comm ercial Banks (net) 12.23 4.69 (17.99) Other (5.41) (4.06) 13.15 (8.22) 8.27 8.35 4.85 5.58 30.29 3.57 (0.88) (0.49) (0.49) Domestic External 1.12 34.95 (1.15) (2.07) 12.99 16.60 Net Amortisation 4.85 5.58 30.29 3.57 (0.88) Disbursements 10.55 10.35 34.67 7.59 4.46 3.00 Amortisation (5.70) (4.77) (4.38) (4.02) (5.34) (3.49) Change in Govt. Foreign Assets - - - 9.02 16.94 2.70 Domestic 8.47 12.27 (0.63) External 0.55 4.67 3.33 Arrears SOURCE: Treasury Dept., M inistry o f Finance, Antigua & Barbuda and ECCB - - - (2.28) (0.72) (9.27) (0.88) (0.58) (1.61) (1.39) (0.14) (10.88) 32 Table 7 Montserrat Central Government fiscal operations A ll figures in M illions o f Eastern Caribbean Dollars 2ÔÔ1 Qtr 1 20ÚÍ Q tr II 2001 Qtr III 2001 Q tr IV 20Ú2 Q tr I 2002 Qtr II Current Revenue 5.73 5.60 5.33 8.01 6.31 6.09 Tax Revenue Taxes on Income & Profits ofwhich:Personal Company 5.40 1.58 5.28 1.93 4.82 1.97 7.51 5.49 5.99 3.04 5.35 2.24 1.58 1.89 0.03 1.81 0.01 4.15 1.35 1.92 0.95 2.02 0.06 Taxes on Property 0.08 0.32 0.12 0.05 0.13 0.03 Taxes on Domestic Goods & Service ofwhich:Hotel Occupancy Tax Insurance Company Levy Licenses 1.14 0.69 0.72 0.51 0.25 0.10 1 1 - - - - - - - 0.02 0.84 0.04 0.37 0.11 0.32 0.02 0.33 0.05 0.65 0.03 0.51 2.60 2.34 2.01 1.46 2.57 2.98 0.54 0.90 0.88 0.21 0.51 0.74 0.77 0.21 0.42 0.69 0.69 0.15 0.31 0.51 0.48 0.12 0.59 0.83 0.97 0.20 0.65 1.15 0.91 0.19 Non-Tax Revenue 0.33 0.32 0.51 0.50 0.32 0.74 Current Expenditure Personal Emoluments Goods & Services * Interest Payments Domestic External Transfers & Subsidies ofwhich:Pensions 8.57 5.00 2.54 12.45 5.24 5.51 12.21 5.23 5.81 17.94 7.46 8.38 9.45 5.31 2.90 11.54 3.13 4.83 Taxes on International Trade & Transactions ofwhich:Import Duty Consumption Tax Customs Service Charge Foreign Currency Levy I - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1.03 1.70 - 1.17 - 2.10 - 1.24 - 3.58 0 .9 0 0.94 0.93 1.83 1.38 1.57 (2.84) (6.85) (6.88) (9.93) (3.14) (5-45) Current Grants 4.31 8.80 8.91 7.35 9.58 9.67 Current Account Balance (after grants) 1.47 1.95 2.03 (2.58) 6.44 4.22 Current Account Balance(before Grants Capital Revenue - - - - - - Grants of which: Capital Grants 15.96 20.45 20.56 19.00 19.68 19.77 11.65 11.65 11.65 11.65 10.10 10.10 Capital Expenditure Capital Account Balance (before grants) Capital Account Balance (after grants) Overall Balance Financing Domestic ECCB (Net) Commercial Bank (Net) Other External Net Amortisation Disbursements Amortisation Change in Govt. Foreign assets 11.65 11.65 11.65 11.65 10.10 10.10 (11.65) (11.65) (11.65) (11.65) (10.10) (10.10) - - - - - - 1.47 (1.47) (1.47) 1.18 17.08 (19.73) 1.95 - (1.95) (1.85) 0.34 9.39 (11.58) (0.10) (0.10) - - - - (0.10) 2.03 (2.58) 6.44 4.22 (2.03) (1.96) (1.04) 1.22 (2.14) (0.07) (0.07) 2.58 2.58 0.17 (1.90) 4.31 (6.44) (6.34) (0.83) (13.07) 7.56 (0.10) (0.10) (4.22) - (0.07) - - (0.10) (4.17) 0.18 7.67 (12.02) (0.05) (0.05) - (0.05) Memo Item Principal Repayments - - - - - - Arrears Domestic Foreign - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - n.a n.a n.a n.a 0.01 'Goods and Services include Miscellaneous Payments SOURCE: Treasury Dept., Ministry of Finance, Montserrat and ECCB 33 Tables St. K itts & Nevis Central Government fiscal operations A ll fig ures in M illions o f Eastern Caribbean Dollars 2001 Q tr 1 2001 Q trll 2001 U tr ill 2001 U tr IV 2002 Q tr I 2002 Q tr II Current Revenue 56.02 70.73 57.74 77.39 63.27 72.40 Tax Revenue Taxes on income & Profits ofwhich: Company Social Services 41.14 7.87 53.26 16.89 42.15 12.76 57.91 20.20 45.24 12.72 52.38 13.42 2.83 4.78 11.09 5.34 9.12 3.49 13.37 6.69 7.23 5.25 7.74 5.28 Taxes on Property 0.87 1.76 0.69 1.10 0.86 1.84 Taxes on Domestic Goods & Servi of which: Hotel Room Tax Licenses Gasoline Levy 10.50 10.19 7.57 9.92 10.27 11.40 3.63 1.77 0.30 3.32 0.56 1.10 1.51 0.47 0.54 1.53 2.04 1.72 2.85 1.32 1.45 2.61 0.81 1.81 Taxes on International Trade ofwhich: Import Duty Consumption Tax Customs Service Charge 21.90 24.42 21.13 26.69 21.39 25.72 6.24 10.48 3.49 7.49 11.62 3.94 6.78 10.20 2.92 10.60 11.71 3.38 6.60 10.42 3.66 8.01 12.50 4.25 Non-Tax Revenue 14.86 17.47 15.59 19.48 18.03 20.02 Current Expenditure 69.30 75.21 72.09 90.37 74.71 84.79 Personal Emoluments Goods & Services Interest Payments Domestic External Transfers & Subsidies O f Which: Pensions 33.64 16.38 11.53 7.61 3.92 7.75 4.48 34.54 20.69 10.41 7.22 3.19 9.57 4.48 34.80 19.87 10.64 6.07 4.57 6.78 3.91 37.30 22.57 19.86 13.08 6.78 10.64 4.21 r 34.48 15.97 15.69 8.08 7.61 8.57 4.69 35.77 20.07 15.72 8.25 7.47 13.23 5.33 (14.35) Current Account Balance (13.28) (4.48) (11.44) (12.39) Capital Revenue 0.20 0.08 0.19 3.22 0.17 5.16 Grants Ofwhich: Capital Grants 0.08 0.08 0.18 0.18 0.04 0.04 4.30 3.69 0.27 0.14 0.30 0.22 Captai Expenditure 8.21 11.96 24.21 34.08 12.00 33.07 (7.93) (11-70) (23.98) (27.17) (11.69) (27.69) Overall Balance (21.21) (16.18) (38.33) (39.54) (23.00) (40.00) Financing Domestic ECCB (net) Commercial Banks (net) Other External Net Amortisation Disbursements Amortisation Change in G ovt Foreign Assets Arrears Domestic External 21.21 (19.19) 2.63 (12.57) (9.25) 40.40 40.40 44.11 (3.71) 16.18 (24.30) (2.83) (19.45) (2.02) 40.48 40.48 45.10 (4.62) 38.33 14.25 1.35 18.45 (5.55) 24.08 24.08 25.67 (1.59) 39.54 36.53 (1.88) 28.29 10.12 3.01 3.01 11.50 (8.49) 23.00 (52.32) 2.37 (49.75) (4.94) 75.32 75.32 80.35 (5.03) 40.00 33.85 (0.73) 35.50 (0.92) 6.15 6.15 13.20 (7.05) - - Capital Account Balance (12.98) . SOURCE: Treasury UeDt.. Ministry o f Finance. St. Kitts & Nevis and ECCB . . . . . . . . 34 Table 9 Saint Lucia Central Government fiscal operations All figures in Millions of Eastern Caribbean Dollars 2001 Qtr 1 2001 Qtr II 2001 Qtr III 2001 Qtr IV 2002 Qtr 1 2002 Q trll C urrent Revenue T ax Revenue T axes on Incom e & Profits O fw h ich : P ersonal C om pany T axes on Property T axes on D om estic G oods & S ervices O fw h ich : Consum ption Duty E xcise Tax H otel O ccupancy Tax Taxes on International Trade & T ransactions O fW h ich : C onsum ption T a x (Im ports) Im port Duty S ervice C h arge (Im ports) N on-Tax Revenue 135.32 119.74 47.59 110.43 102.07 36.73 112.36 99.84 33.21 83.81 75.55 16.21 122.61 107.81 32.21 98.71 93.89 29.32 13.72 25.33 0.55 22.90 13.14 18.03 0.17 17.69 11.73 17.64 0.43 17.21 10.61 1.61 0.11 13.14 12.45 17.23 3.96 20.35 11.83 12.18 0.90 18.42 1.39 6.59 8.09 48.70 1.00 5.89 5.24 47.48 1.87 4.89 5.19 48.99 1.00 4.81 2.38 46.10 1.40 5.48 5.72 51.28 1.46 5.34 5.74 45.25 23.34 13.79 7.30 15.58 22.80 13.38 7.26 8.36 25.37 12.95 7.37 12.52 22.25 13.62 6.84 8.26 29.66 11.73 6.41 14.80 22.43 13.23 6.56 4.82 C urrent Expenditure 109.56 90.98 102.90 101.83 103.40 98.95 P ersonal E m olum ents G oods & Services Interest Paym ents Dom estic External T ransfers & Subsidies O fW h ic h : P ensions 53.65 23.57 12.60 7.22 5.39 19.74 6.92 54.65 11.71 8.61 5.85 2.75 16.01 8.28 54.52 20.12 9.94 4.09 5.85 18.31 8.54 50.83 18.04 14.67 7.71 6.97 18.29 8.88 52.93 20.65 8.13 4.90 3.24 21.68 7.24 53.12 10.87 14.23 6.60 7.63 20.73 9.04 C urrent Account B alance (a fte r gra nts) 25.76 19.45 9.46 (18.02) 19.21 (0.24) C apital Revenue 0.04 0.02 0.64 0.62 1.42 6.20 G rants O fw h ic h : C apital Grants 0.10 0.10 0.05 0.05 14.15 14.15 3.21 3.21 8.88 8.88 0.22 0.22 43.77 31.94 16.83 30.32 47.02 13.38 C apital E xpenditure & Net Lending Capital A ccount Balance (afte r gra nts) (43.64) (31.87) (2.05) (26.50) (36.72) (6.96) O verall Balance (after grants) (17.88) (12.43) 7.41 (44.52) (17.51) (7.20) Financing Dom estic ECCB (net) C om m ercial Banks (net) O the r External Net A m ortisation D isbursem ents Am ortisation C hange in Govt. Foreign A ssets A rrears Dom estic External 17.88 52.13 (3.05) (4.80) 59.98 (34.26) (34.26) 1.59 (35.84) 12.43 (4.13) 14.52 (32.48) 13.84 16.55 16.55 20.38 (3.83) (7.41) (4.00) (3.53) (2.97) 2.49 (3.41) (3.41) 0.23 (3.64) 44.52 14.45 (0.54) 5.55 9.44 30.07 30.07 36.77 (6.70) 17.51 9.85 (1-48) 18.92 (7.59) 7.66 7.66 9.38 (172) 7.20 1.98 (0.30) 5.41 (3.13) 5.22 5.22 8.77 (3.56) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ' SOURCE: T reasury Dept., M inistry o f Finance. St. Lucia a n d ECCB - Table 10 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines fiscal operations Ail figures in Millions of Eastern Caribbean Dollars C e n tra l G o v e rn m e n t 2001 2001 2UU1 2001 20U2 20U2 Q trl Qtr II Qtr III Qtr IV Q trl Q trll CURRENT REVENUE Tax R evenue Taxes on Incom e a nd P ro fit O fW h ich ; P ersonal C o m p an y T axes on P roperty T axes on D om estic G oo d s & S ervices O fW h ich : C o nsu m p tio n Duties Hotel T u rn o v e r Tax 55.08 44.09 11.38 62.49 55.50 17.88 7 0.59 61.51 19.18 79.11 6 6.92 21.29 53.91 40.83 12.45 77.19 68.61 24.41 8.21 2.22 0.20 10.11 8.45 8.58 0.52 10.37 9.06 9.22 1.98 12.46 7.19 13.27 0.71 10.32 7.48 3.26 0.28 7.21 9.93 12.13 0.29 11.07 1.76 2.05 0.95 1.85 1.65 1.06 1.95 0.43 1.06 1.67 1.62 1.64 T axes on International T ra d e & Transactions O fW h ich: Im port Duty C o nsu m p tio n T ax C ustom s S ervice Charge 22.40 26.73 2 7.89 34.60 20.89 32.84 4.88 13.04 3.31 5.93 15.69 4.10 5.96 15.60 4.14 8.27 2 0.26 4.99 3.87 12.81 3.18 6.51 20.32 4.56 N on-Tax R evenue 10.99 6.99 9.08 12.19 13.08 8.58 C U R R E N T E XP E N D ITU R E P ersonal E m olum ents G oods a nd S ervices Interest P aym ents Dom estic External T ransfers a nd S ubsidies O fW h ich : Pensions 63.96 31.41 10.69 9.41 3.47 5.94 12.45 56.67 30.96 12.38 3.94 2.39 1.55 9.39 66.77 31.46 15.15 6.01 3.91 2.10 14.15 66.32 33.01 16.24 5.27 2.79 2 .4 8 11.80 64.63 32.60 13.14 7.37 4.56 2.81 11.52 66.70 32.53 15.84 4.49 2.02 2.47 13.84 3.89 1.13 - - - - C urrent A ccount Balance (8.88) 5.82 3.82 12.79 (10.72) 10.49 C urrent A ccou n t B aíance íbe fore G rants) (8.88) 5.82 3.82 12.79 (10.72) 10.49 Capital R evenue 0.40 0.54 G rants o f which: C apital G rants 0.41 0.41 1.24 1.24 6.20 Capital E xpenditure & N et Lending 0.09 0.20 0.49 3.08 3.08 1.09 1.09 0.08 0.08 0.30 0.30 15.51 - 3.92 5.66 19.19 13.21 O verall Balance (b efore grants) O verall B alance (afte r g ra nts) (14.68) (14.27) 2.44 3.68 (1.84) 1.24 (6 .31 ) (5 .22 ) (23.73) (2 3.65) (4.53) (4.23) Financing Dom estic E CCB (net) Com m ercial B anks (net) O ther External N et A m ortisation D isbursem ents A m ortisation C hange in Govt. Foreign assets 14.27 10.14 (1 0 0 ) 24.38 (13.24) 4.13 4.13 7.28 (3.15) - (3.68) (5.46) 1.46 (0.82) (6.10) 1.78 1.78 5.59 (3.81) (1.24) 1.62 (4.88) (0.36) 6.86 __ (2.86) 1.64 4.0 3 (2.39) (4.50) 5.22 (14.66) 2 .3 4 (39.30) 2 2.30 19.88 2 2.88 2 6.69 (3 .81 ) (3 .00 ) 23.65 29.62 (3.00) 21.32 11.30 (5.97) (1.47] 1.82 (3.29; (4.50) 4.23 6.26 (2.90) 44.70 (35.54) (2.03) (2.03) 2.31 (4.34) n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a M em o Item P rincipal R epaym ents - SOURCE: T reasury Dept., M inistry o f F inance, St. V incent & the G renadines a nd ECCB - BARBADOS .................... Table 1 Barbados Selected econom ic indicators - 1990 Real d om estic pro du ct Nominal GDP at factor costs (BBS million) Nominal GDP at market prices (BBS million) Real GOP Real GDP annual percentage growth 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2965.3 3440.3 879.1 -3.3 2893.8 3393.8 844.7 -3.9 2707.3 3176.3 784.1 -7.2 2801.4 3308.9 790.5 0.8 2934 3485.1 825.9 4.5 3160 3742.4 844.7 2.3 3401.1 3994.8 865.5 2.5 3628.5 4412.6 890 2.8 3912.4 4746.3 927.4 4.2 4139.4 4964.7 954.2 2.9 4290.8 5162.6 982.5 3.0 4222.6 5097.9 955.7 •2.7 4295.3 5175.2 952.2 -0.4 4.7 9.3 -2.7 -17.6 -3.1 -9.3 •1.9 -28.2 -7.9 -5.3 -3.5 -10.2 -0.4 -2.8 4.0 1.9 2.4 0.9 1.2 7.6 -5.3 6.8 9.4 3.9 6 3 3.2 -25.9 17.9 8.3 1.0 11.8 0.2 0.9 2.3 53.6 1.5 -0.9 1.7 0.8 2.4 1 2.4 9.3 -7.6 3.7 2.0 14 3.6 1.7 2.7 -25.7 -3.3 3.5 6.3 17.4 6.2 3.1 3.5 10.9 8.5 •2.4 -1.5 10.7 4.2 3.2 4 9.7 0.1 -0.5 7.7 1.1 4.2 3 1.9 -14.7 -1.1 -8.1 -5.8 -3.9 -3.8 0.4 2 -10 -0.9 1.2 -3.0 -3.6 -0.7 0.9 1.7 3.5 -1.2 6.3 2.8 1.6 2.9 0.7 2.4 3.8 1.2 2.8 -1.2 2.1 2.1 10.4 122.2 9.2 128.5 9.9 128.6 10.5 129 Ral GDP g ro w th b y selected e conom ic se cto r Sugar Non-sugar agriculture and fishing Manufacturing Tourism Construction Wholesale and Retail Trade Business and other services Transportation, storage and communication -10.2 -5 -3.2 -0.1 -5.1 -2 -4.7 -5.4 -7.5 -6.2 -1.8 -1.9 Prices GDP deflator Consumer price index (average) Consumer price index (December to December) 5.4 3.1 3.4 5 6 8.1 -1.6 6.1 3.3 2 1.1 -1 -0.4 0.7 0.5 5.4 1.9 2.8 4.7 2.4 1.5 3.3 7.7 1.6 16.1 106.5 17.3 101.5 23 103.5 24.3 104.6 21.8 106.3 19.6 113.3 15.8 115 14.5 117.5 214.85 703.65 207.35 698.85 190.15 524.2 187 577.05 181.6 614.25 238.85 770.6 280.65 833.6 282.95 995.5 261.25 1031.8 263.7 1108.05 272.3 1156.05 259.4 1068.6 219.0 1019.5 Trade balance (as percentage of GDP) Current account balance (as percentage of GDP) External debt (as a percentage of GDP) a/ External debt service (as percentage o f total exports) -28.4 -0.5 54.7 70.6 -29.0 -1.4 57.4 74.2 -21.0 9.0 62.7 78.4 -23.6 4.2 70.2 58.1 •24.8 7.7 71.4 66.9 -28.4 2.3 66.3 54.7 -27.7 3.6 67.5 48.9 -32.3 -2.2 62.0 41.5 -32.5 -2.6 59.6 33.8 -34.0 -5.9 58.3 36.9 -34.1 -5.6 62.1 27.5 -31.7 -3.7 66.8 31.6 -30.9 -3.7 69.8 30.0 Fiscal balance b/ Total revenue (as percentage o f GDP) Total expenditure and net lending (as percentage o f GDP) Overall fiscal balance (as parentage o f GDP) 27.3 34.8 •7.5 30.4 32.3 -1.9 31.4 33.9 -2.5 31.3 31.5 -0.2 29.6 31.9 -2.1 30.9 30.1 0.8 30.3 33.5 -3.2 32.6 33.5 -0.9 32.4 ^ 33.3 -0.8 31.4 33.8 -2.3 33 34.5 -1.5 34.2 37.8 -3.6 34.2 38.4 -4.1 Monetary se cto r Currency in circulation Banks cash and bankers deposits Money Base Demand deposits Narrow money (M1) Time deposits Savings deposits Broad money (M2) 5.6 ^ 45.9 21.5 13.0 9.8 19.7 13.7 13.5 -7.3 -29.1 -17.6 •8.8 -8.2 7.9 0.6 -0.7 -1.1 38.6 15.1 -8.4 -5.4 9.3 2.9 1.8 0.1 -24.5 -12.0 20.4 11.6 -28.8 13.9 5.6 7.1 -13.2 -1.4 23.8 17.3 •13.0 7.1 7.3 5.6 32.9 15.7 1.0 2.6 10.6 7.4 6.4 9.9 59.8 31.1 39.6 28.8 23.8 8.6 15.6 8.9 •25.7 -9.1 4.0 5.5 -0.3 8.4 6.6 11.9 21.7 16.1 18.2 16.2 -4.0 10.2 10.5 12.9 -7.4 3.9 10.8 11.4 37.2 6.9 11.0 2.6 26.9 12.3 11.7 8.9 20.4 6.2 8.6 0.5 32.6 15.0 13.4 9.6 1.3 5.1 6.1 4,2 66.3 36.3 3.3 3.5 -20.7 12.1 5.5 7.00 15.00 5.00 12.60 4.80 11.30 5.00 11.90 5.20 11.80 5.20 11.90 4.20 11.10 4.25 11.62 4.76 11.66 4.88 11.93 Labor statistics Unemployment rate Employment (OOO1 ) E xternal s e cto r Merchandise exports (f.o.b) (million US$) Merchandise imports (c.i.f) (Million US$) 12.3 117.4 r r*- oo Nominal interest rates Weighted average deposit rate Weighted average lending rate source: central Bank or barbados a/Kerers to government debt b/ Computed on a calendar year basis c l July 2002 6.10 12.10 3.10 2.72 c/ 11.10 10.79 c/ ' ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 2 Barbados Real GDP by economic sector Millions of 1974 Barbados dollars 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Sugar 29.5 28 23.V 20.7 22.3 16.5 25.4 27.8 20.6 22.9 25.1 21.4 19.3 Non-sugar agriculture and fishing 34.8 34.1 33 32.9 31.1 36.7 37.2 34.4 33.3 36.1 36.1 35.7 35.4 Manufacturing 87.9 83.8 76 73.9 78.9 85.5 84.7 87.9 90.9 88.7 88.3 81.1 82.1 Tourism 122.2 115.6 113.4 117.9 129 130.3 132.5 135.1 143.6 141.4 152.3 143.4 139.1 6.6 6.3 5.8 5.8 6 6 6 5.9 8.7 9.4 8.7] 7.5 7.4 Electricity, gas and water 26.4 27 27.4 27.5 28.6 30.4 31.7 32.9 35.9 37.7 37.7 39.1 39.9 Construction 60.1 55.6 39.9 40.7 42.3 47.3 47.7 54.3 63.8 70.6 71.4 68.7 66.2 Wholesale and Retail 171.9 161.2 148.4 152 161.1 161.4 165.3 171.2 181.8 189.4 197.3 189.7 188.5 Government 120.3 117.8 112 112 113.1 114.2 115.4 116.5 117.7 118.9 120.1 121.3 123.7 Business and other service 150.5 147.7 139.9 141.1 145.3 146.6 148.1 150.6 155.3 160.3 165.1 165.8 167.2 68.9 67.6 65.2 66 68.1 69.7 71.4 73.3 75.9 78.9 80.4 82 83.4 Mining and quarrying CO 00 Transportation, storage and communicatio Source: Central Bank of Barbados Table 3 Barbados Selected commodity output Rates of change 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Sugar production 4.7 -5.1 -17.6 -10.2 7.6 -25.9 53.6 9.3 -25.7 10.9 9.7 -14.7 -10 Non sugar agricultural production 9.4 -2 -3.1 -0.4 -5.4 17.9 1.5 -7.6 -3.3 8.5 0.1 -1.1 -0.9 3.9 13.1 -10.8 -14.1 -11.4 22.8 -0.5 -16.3 -5.1 -9.4 9.3 -31.3 9.1 4.8 12.2 47.9 5.2 7.1 9.8 -18.2 3.1 -19.7 -1.6 -11.2 -2.3 29.3 -2.9 -22.7 -9.3 -13.5 4 51.3 1.8 0.5 -0.2 -31.1 3.2 -8.6 -6.9 9.7 -2.3 -7 0.4 0.1 Milk production Fish production Chicken production Food crop output Manufacture -2.7 -4.7 -9.3 -2.8 6.8 8.3 -0.9 3.7 3.4 -2.4 -0.5 -8.1 1.2 Food processing Garments Electronics Beverages and tobacco Chemicals Petroleum Products Wooden furniture Other non-metallic mineral products Other manufacturing industries 5.8 -34 8.6 0 -43 -2 -3.5 -38.9 44.4 -3 -21.3 -14.5 -40.8 -43.4 -9.3 9.9 19.1 -16.2 5.5 0.6 5.5 -21.4 4.4 -3.5 3.1 -38.7 -2.1 8.9 -6.3 5 19.3 30.3 16.2 4.6 33.6 -2.6 5.1 38.9 4.4 -140.4 6.3 10.8 5.5 -38 6.2 -6.8 0.9 1.9 38.2 -0.2 -1.8 6.7 3.4 -2.8 3.6 16.9 12.2 -10.5 12.1 1.6 5.8 -27.9 -15.9 h 11.9 -11.2 -88.9 -12.8 27.5 12.2 -5.3 -4.8 -6.7 5 -0.9 0 -66.6 13.2 -1.1 -0.6 8.5 -2.9 -5.3 -19.4 0 7.1 0.2 3.6 -3.3 -37 -30.3 -2.6 -6.4 0 -1.4 -5.9 -9 3.9 -27.6 -5.3 -2.8 -3.5 0 -3.3 -6.4 4.4 Oil production Source: Central Bank of Barbados 16.7 1.3 5.3 -3.4 -0.5 -0.7 -20.6 -9.6 76.1 22.7 -21 -17.1 -6.9 ___________________ Table 4 ____ _ _ ________________________ Barbados________________________ Fiscal accounts o f the consolidated non-flnancial public sector ___________________^ Millions BB$ _______ 1990/91 -2001/02 1990/91 1992/93 1991/92 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1996/99 1997/98 1999/00 2000/01 2002/03 2001/02 Total income Current Income Tax revenue Direct taxes Personal Corporate Levies Stabilization Property Other o Indirect taxes Consumption Stamp VAT Excises Import Duties Hotel and Retaurant Other 891.7 387.1 139.9 95 91.3 0 46.2 14.7 926.9 429.4 143.7 101.1 85.4 33.7 47 18.5 918 425.7 133.2 88.9 86.9 38.2 55.7 22.8 926.2 407.5 181.2 86.5 60.3 3.1 56.4 20 974.7 405.9 189.9 115.4 12.2 0 60.7 27.8 1079 460.5 213.6 133.5 13.4 0.7 69.8 29.5 1108.7 489.3 229.6 136.3 15.9 0 75.9 31.7 1381.2 516.8 247.1 152 16.5 0 72.5 30.7 1464 564.9 268 171.9 16.6 0 77.7 30.7 1523.5 644 272.2 223.1 17.6 0 98.7 32.5 1610 708.6 313.3 248 16 0 93.7 37.7 1610.9 704.2 316.6 222.7 16.7 2.8 102.5 42.8 1691.3 714.5 329.1 214.6 504.6 197.3 101.1 0 497.5 228.5 88.3 0 492.3 233.4 82.6 0 518.7 261.9 80.5 0 568.8 280.5 90.4 0 618.5 308.8 90.8 0 619.4 255.7 69.2 74.9 117.8 17.4 71 87.1 16.2 77.3 74 15.4 86.8 70.9 16.3 89.1 84.5 17.4 96 93.1 22.1 103.6 91.4 19.6 108.6 862.4 2.5 12.6 451.9 166.5 127.9 1.1 100 899.1 0.2 14.7 455.1 189.3 136.9 0.3 102.7 879.5 0.4 13.3 461.4 164.1 134.9 0.8 104.6 901.3 -0.1 14.1 491.6 160.1 135.4 0.7 99.4 906.7 0.1 14.4 498.7 141.8 146.3 0.6 104.9 976.8 0 15.5 526.1 148.1 166.8 0.7 119.6 87.3 87.3 0 0 89.2 88.9 0.3 0 89 88.4 0.6 0 91.7 70.9 4.4 16.4 111 91.7 4.7 14.6 97.2 83.6 1.9 11.7 114.8 98.3 0.6 15.9 89.8 74.4 0 15.4 95.4 80 0 15.4 96.4 79.6 0 16.8 121.3 103.9 0 17.4 103.7 92.3 0 11.4 117.8 104.5 0 13.3 982.7 929.9 950.6 948.3 1003.9 1070.8 1148.4 1267.8 1347.6 1418.1 1528.1 1592.5 1657.6 439.7 119.4 142.5 60.4 82.1 281.1 425.5 104.6 163.5 46.3 117.2 236.2 401.3 145.4 159.2 51 108.3 244.6 430.1 104.6 144 51.3 92.7 269.6 437.3 114.5 164.6 49.9 114.8 287.5 464.4 122.5 189.9 57.9 131.9 294.1 493 141.5 200.5 50.5 150 313.4 535.4 148.3 201.8 43.8 158 382.2 566.2 156.9 218.9 49.6 169.3 405.6 618.1 167.2 222.3 56.7 165.6 410.5 640.8 190.3 225.8 74.3 151.4 471.5 646.3 204 251.9 82.6 169.3 490.4 662.3 216.3 285.7 107.8 177.9 493.3 240.1 113.4 94.9 109.9 103.8 135.5 220.1 254 256.8 262.9 290.9 337.9 347.2 5.4 5.5 12.6 10.2 9.7 0.6 4.7 1.6 -8.7 7.4 9.2 12.5 4.3 261.4 242.6 258.2 246.6 271 279 335.8 377.4 384.5 380.8 380.6 0 109.1 43 'tf Non tax revenue and grants Non-tax revenue Grants Post Office-revenue Current expenditure Wages and salaries Goods and services Interest External Domestic Transfers and subsidies Capital expenditure Net lending National insurance scheme revenue Source: Central Bank of Barbados 201.5 216 ' Table 5 Barbados Central Bank Millions of Barbados Dollars 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Net international reserves 120.6 38.9 97.4 139.4 257.6 340.6 513.8 549.9 538.8 612.6 968.6 1414.1 1367.7 Net domestic assets 245.5 262.7 249.8 166.3 43.7 8.1 -56.5 -134 -56.1 -111.2 -405.7 -766.7 -485.3 97 104.9 -7.9 138.1 140.5 -2.4 114.5 118 -3.5 97 101.4 -4.5 -6 -3.3 -2.7 -108.1 -104.1 -4 -224.5 -209.5 -15 -218.4 -215.1 -3.3 -216.2 -210.5 -5.7 -197.1 -193 -4.1 -466.1 -460.4 -5.8 -777.8 -770.9 -6.9 -521 -517.2 -3.8 88 97.4 91 31.3 6.8 12.7 8.5 6.8 32.3 24 9 9 9 27.8 54.5 -2.1 42.3 62.3 1.6 31.2 53.5 -1.2 7.8 61.1 -0.4 0 23.9 -1.7 6 8.5 -1.7 0 8.4 -0.6 0 9.1 -1.1 23.5 7.9 -0.1 15 8.9 0 0 9 0 0 9 0 0 9 0 102.8 70.8 88.7 84.2 88.8 91.5 206.5 124.5 171.4 105.7 94.2 16.5 17.7 Money Base 366.1 301.6 347.2 305.7 301.3 348.7 457.3 415.9 482.7 501.4 562.9 647.4 882.4 Currency in circulation Bank's cash and bankers' deposits Source: Central Bank of Barbados 192.8 173.3 178.7 122.9 176.8 170.4 177 128.7 189.6 111.7 200.3 148.4 220.1 237.2 239.6 176.3 168.2 214.5 302.7 198.7 310.7 252.2 312.4 335 325.4 557 Net claims on the public sector Central government (net) Rest of the public sector Credit to the financial system Credit to commercial banks Credit to the rest of the financial system Liabilities to other financial institutions Other net assets Table 6________ Barbados __ Monetary Survey Millions of Barbados Dollars 1990 124.6 1991 42.7 1992 98.2 1993 143.6 1994 310.9 1995 367.8 1996 580.8 1997 642.7 1998 568.2 1999 679.2 2000 1,080.8 2001 1,534.1 2002 1,488.5 1,543.6 1,613.6 1,588.1 1,637.3 1,599.6 1,664.1 1,768.0 1,860.2 2,197.4 2,391.4 2,253.7 2,002.7 2,242.0 328.1 465.6 -137.5 427.4 507.4 -80.0 479.1 594.1 -115.0 534.4 614.8 -80.4 359.7 512.1 -152.4 311.3 488.5 -177.1 36.0 602.3 -242.1 330.8 661.0 -330.2 335.9 619.7 -283.8 284.1 532.3 -248.2 164.2 442.2 -278.0 -128.6 171.4 -299.9 53.4 405.5 -352.1 152.4 106.4 122.7 87.6 104.0 155.7 102.3 119.0 162.5 150.3 40.4 147.1 45.5 227.7 96.0 265.7 114.8 225.3 92.6 250.1 137.3 301.7 115.9 265.8 251.1 359.2 Credit to the private sector Medium and long term foreign liabilities Other net assets 1,134.2 -43.8 79.1 1,182.2 -71.4 40.3 1,152.2 -29.2 37.7 1,141.9 -36.5 14.2 1,280.6 -84.7 31.7 1,471.2 -72.3 60.6 1,549.5 -50.6 91.2 1,851.0 -69.6 -82.4 2,146.1 -128.8 -45.3 2,464.5 -128.8 -70.8 2,504.2 -143.5 -106.7 2,512.6 -137.l1 -94.3 2,557.7 -129.1 -131.9 Liabilities to the private sector 1,668.2 1,656.4 1,686.4 1,780.9 1,910.5 2,031.9 2,348.8 2,502.9 2,765.6 3,070.6 3,334.6 3,536.8 3730.6 192.8 276.2 469 258.2 941 178.7 252] 430.7 278.6 947.1 176.8 230.8 407.6 304.4 974.4 177 277.8 454.8 216.6 1109.5 189.6 343.9 533.5 188.4 1188.6 200.3 347.3 547.6 208.3 1276 220.1 485 705.1 257.9 1385.8 239.6 504.3 743.9 257 1502 268.2 596 864.2 246.8 1654.6 302.7 660.4 963.1 338.6 1768.9 310.7 737.7 1048.4 407.7 1878.5 312.4 836.8 1149.2 413.1 1974.5 325.4 864.4 1189.8 327.4 2213.4 Net international reserves Net domestic assets Credit to the public sector Central government (net) Rest of the public sector Credit to the rest of the the financial system Liabilities to other financial institutions Currency in circulation Demand deposits M1 Time deposits Savings deposits Source: Central Bank of Barbados Table 7 ____ Barbados Balance of payments US$ million 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 -7.8 -23.5 143.4 70.25 134.65 43.55 71.2 -49.45 -62.45 -147.45 -145 -93.85 -96.55 Merchandise trade Total credits Total debits -408.7 218.65 627.35 -416.05 206.65 622.7 -277.75 189.85 467.6 -326.8 187.55 514.35 -354.7 189.95 544.65 -445.75 245.45 691.2 -456.15 286.8 742.95 -598.55 289.1 887.65 -650.55 270.1 920.65 -714.2 275.2 989.4 -743.95 286.3 1030.25 -681.1 271.15 -952.25 -679.7 231.85 -911.6 Total exports (fob) Domestic exports Total imports (cif) Retained imports 214.85 126.95 703.65 615.8 207.35 122.25 698.85 613.75 190.15 134.6 524.2 468.65 187 141.1 577.05 531.15 181.6 135.15 614.25 567.8 238.85 169.4 770.6 701.15 280.65 214.25 833.6 767.2 282.95 210.45 995.5 923 261.25 195.35 1031.8 965.9 263.7 197.45 1108.05 1041.8 272.25 189.6 1156 1073.35 259.4 176.25 1068.6 985.5 219 164.95 1019.45 965.4 403.8 398.8 409.7 416.95 494.7 503.4 539.8 549.7 591.4 571.1 602.85 586.7 583.7 458.9 508.35 49.45 421.95 466.95 45 428.55 470.4 41.85 481.15 534.4 53.25 543.9 603 59.1 551.25 622.3 71.05 585.2 659.3 74.1 584.6 663.4 78.8 629.75 711.9 82.15 600.1 686.8 86.7 628.9 722.95 94.05 613.05 713.9 100.85 605 697.1 92.1 9.7 118.6 108.9 24.75 167.5 142.75 46.25 205.15 158.9 56.75 224.1 167.35 79.35 248.75 169.4 81.5 261.7 180.2 93.65 283.05 189.4 105.15 307.6 202.45 98.85 312.85 214 96.2 304.1 207.9 -77.4 9.55 86.95 -82.85 14.4 97.25 -100.5 16.4 116.9 to o 17.65 123.65 -120.35 20.55 140.9 -125.7 21.05 146.75 -129.65 23.1 152.75 -138.75 24.75 163.5 -133.5 22.35 155.95 -128.1 22.6 150.7 Current account Services Travel Credit Debit Other services Credit Debit en Transportation Credit Debit Government Credit Debit -89.15 -86.95 -69.2 13.8 14 13.5 13.45 26.95 23.45 8.9 30.4 21.5 6.4 22.75 16.35 3.85 25.85 22 6.1 26.5 20.4 5.85 28.95 23.1 7 32.3 25.3 7.55 34.9 27.35 8.4 36.1 27.7 10.55 35.75 25.2 Income Credit Debit •45.65 30.05 75.7 -39.5 37.95 77.45 -29 37.55 66.55 -40.9 40.1 81 -40.7 46.05 86.75 -47.7 48.4 96.1 -52.2 54.15 106.35 -47.7 60.4 108.1 -56.05 63.4 119.45 -71.4 66.2 137.6 -82.3 70.15 152.45 -93.35 73 166.35 -96.85 71.9 168.75 Current transfers Credit Debit 42.75 33.2 40.45 20.95 43.35 22.4 35.35 55.45 20.1 33.6 57.15 23.55 39.75 66.3 26.55 47.25 72.25 25 52.75 78.9 26.15 67.05 95.7 28.65 78.4 109.35 30.95 93.9 126.15 32.25 96.3 128.1 31.8 Capitai and financial account 34.9 25.95 -91.45 4.25 43.8 -30.85 4.9 39.4 24.1 137.7 323.55 288.1 73.95 Long term Public Private Other Short-term Errors and omissions 25.95 6.1 19.85 4 6.6 -72.75 13.1 -20.65 33.75 6.25 -85.1 -54.7 -15.9 -42.2 26.3 9.5 20.2 -33.8 -24.25 -25.45 1.2 8.3 -26.25 -49.8 59.85 18.95 40.9 10.25 -26.3 -89.65 -4.6 0.8 -5.4 10.85 -37.1 24.2 25.5 2 23.5 10.1 -30.7 37.1 4.55 -27.15 31.7 24.7 10.15 47.45 4.4 -12.25 16.65 18.65 1.05 1.1 107.55 53.45 54.1 6.65 23.5 65.25 278.75 123.05 155.7 22.35 22.45 22.25 283.1 150.15 132.95 -0.3 5.3 32.4 71.95 17.6 54.3 2 0 -0.15 Overall balance Official financing IMF Other Other financial institutions Reserve movements Source: Central Bank of Barbados -45.65 -2.95 -3.6 6.5 0 48.6 -52.25 11.3 -0.7 0 12 40.95 18.15 60.4 50.9 0 9.5 -78.55 24.7 -1.9 0 -1.7 -0.2 -22.8 88.8 -5 0.15 -5.65 0.5 -83.8 36.9 -24.9 -16.45 0 -8.45 -12 113.2 -32.2 -25.5 0 -6.7 -81 37.6 -15.7 -9 0 -6.655 -21.9 -37.25 0 0 0 0 37.25 55.5 0 0 0 0 -55.5 200.8 0 0 0 0 -200.8 226.65 0 0 0 0 -226.65 -22.8 0 0 0 0 22.8 Table 8 ____ Barbados______ Public external debt Millions of US$ dollars 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Total external debt 540.0 560.3 566.4 524.3 509.3 479.1 481.1 427.5 453.3 492.4 605.4 539.5 489.05 Central government 429.7 417.2 377.5 352.3 355.1 358.9 365.1 350.1 342.9 392.4 508.1 450.0 412.05 External debt service 151.6 153.8 149.0 108.7 121.6 130.7 137.2 117.5 88.4 97.3 74.9 81.9 65.85 Source: Central Bank of Barbados BELIZE Table 1 ___ ________ B e l iz e __________ Selected economic indicators 1990 Real domestic product Nominal GDP at factor costs (B$ million) Nominal GDP at market prices (B$ million) Real GDP at factor costs (constant 1984 prices) B$ million Real GDP annual percentage growth Prices Consumer price index (Annual average percentage change) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 986.4 1174.4 692.5 3.8 1014.5 1211.4 717.8 3.6 1043.5 1235 749.7 4.5 1055.4 1259.2 763.0 1.8 1177.5 1375.6 812.8 6.5 1318.9 1546 900.7 10.8 2001 2002 1363.8 1431.99 1609.9 1690.395 941.8 976.6466 4.6 3.7 576.2 2.4 1.5 2.6 2.9 6.4 1.0 -0.8 -1.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 140.2 244.5 134.1 250.6 156.3 233.2 164.3 230.5 171.3 229.5 199.9 280.8 213.2 337.5 263.6 366.2 288.5 461.6 269.1 460.6 297.1 424.0 -11.3 5.3 8.1 -9.6 -1.1 9.9 -13.1 -2.7 9.6 -19.7 -6.3 9.0 -14.9 -10.6 9.8 -22.4 -19.6 8.9 -23.8 -21.1 10.6 -15.0 -12 8.6 24.9 31.2 -6.3 Trade balance (as percentage of GDP) Current account balance (as percentage of GDP) External debt service ratio 5.5 -13.7 External sector Merchandise exporte (f.o.b) (million US$) Merchandise imports (c.i.f) (Million US$) 657.5 4.4 126.1 223.6 3.1 629.8 9.3 1126 666.9 1.4 23.4 26.6 -6.0 25.7 26.5 -3.1 25.4 26.7 -3.0 28.5 30.3 -6.2 31.4 35.1 -8.2 24.6 34.6 -10.0 25.1 36.0 -10.9 8.7 5.8 4.6 4.7 Fiscal balance Total revenue (as percentage of GDP) a/ Total expenditure and net lending (as percentage of GDP) Overall fiscal balance (as percentage of GDP) Monetary sector Currency in circulation Demand deposits Narrow money (M1) Savings deposits Time deposits Broad money (M2) 10.1 16.3 13.8 8.0 16.4 13.8 6.5 23.9 17.1 13.4 3.2 9.3 6.3 2.4 3.8 -1.0 0.0 0.9 4.6 5.8 5.4 7.7 8.0 7.1 8.3 3.1 5.0 5.0 28.6 16.2 3.6 10.0 7.6 5.1 5.6 6.1 4.4 4.8 4.7 6.7 20.9 13.6 6.0 13.6 10.9 4.1 8.1 8.1 19.6 25.9 23.8 13.1 1.5 9.5 14.0 25.3 21.6 22.3 8.5 15.0 19.8 21.2 20.8 17.6 -2.6 8.8 3.0 6.40 14.30 6.00 14.40 6.00 14.60 6.10 15.00 7.20 16.3 6.20 16.2 6.70 16.6 6.00 16.3 5.70 16.3 5.00 15.8 4.30 15.4 4.30 14.6 Nominal interest rates d/ Weighted average deposit rate Weighted average lending rate Source: Central Bank of Belize and IMF a/ includes grants. On a fiscal year basis.__________ d/ end of period. The data for 2002 refer to June 2002. 6.30 14.30 Table 2 Belize Revenues and expenditures Fiscal year basis B$ Thousands 1990/1991 1993/1994 1992/1993 1994/1995 1995/1996 1996/1997 280541 275282 249941 263045 219282 60192 1218 29442 123270 5160 231811 63709 1660 29154 130739 6549 1998/1999 1997/1998 1999/2000 313524 358751 259226 283201 287957 302143 233154 59104 1172 28571 137282 7025 252061 55922 1578 101305 84936 8320 257214 55767 1742 98047 94939 6719 271441 64093 1607 97921 98829 8991 31234 3637 318 l“ 1732 2398 23149 26072 1720 461 1963 1922 20006 31140 3209 306 3427 2193 22005 30743 4494 363 1947 2318 21621 30702 5680 380 3241 1858 19543 82373 4299 366 12912 1870 62926 8101 4231 9977 24046 16997 37957 758 6953 13265 6079 4049 8570 18651 343262 335370 350954 312298 321572 330066 155113 190432 219241 239860 232954 242166 83462 9661 34522 8923 18545 104619 11438 43990 11052 19333 120534 12650 45039 20826 20192 131858 14534 46094 21827 25547 126989 15808 42071 23192 24894 123123 16284 48666 24939 29154 134100 152830 116129 111094 79344 43823 20958 83233 41357 85779 60372 62069 51566 47387 60537 38717 37373 184207 Capital expenditure Capital II (local sources) Capital III (foreign sources) ofwhich Hurricane reconstruction Capital Transfer 32728 34890 1327 289213 71099 7424 35229 13279 Wages and salaries Pensions Goods and services Interest payment on public debt Subsidies and current transfers 30659 1404 281 1421 2012 25541 127031 Current expenditure 38584 2441 392 3378 1573 30800 196007 Total expenditure 33603 1785 280 4021 2866 24651 959 Grants 207207 60086 2711 20994 117607 5809 12399 Capital revenue 245791 184813 46074 1218 20699 112891 3931 28321 Non-tax revenue Property income Contributions to pension fund Transfers from NPE's Extrabudgetary revenue Other 218416 155886 35772 1512 12903 94047 11652 Tax revenue Income and profits Taxes on property Taxes on goods and services International trade and transactions Other 252471 2001/2002 2000/2001 311296 281439 264995 197565 Current revenue r- 1991/1992 68976 Total revenue {including grants) 380146 404671 337386 338790 365427 255013 64541 2139 81974 106359 0 296677 76320 2167 101849 116341 326110 76986 2764 107947 138413 42113 2039 445 500 0 39129 39317 1777 0 250 0 37290 80355 17514 21032 13678 23842 18212 381487 482541 534189 579728 252744 264898 291251 295764 338252 130509 17028 51671 24408 29128 140301 17801 52982 24597 29217 148691 21000 62374 30205 28981 151698 17787 60756 39970 25553 163577 24994 66851 53806 29024 79406 77322 116589 191290 238425 241476 47218 27301 48758 24869 60881 47605 54447 183978 52896 0 116165 125311 36965 0 431419 4195 9510 6679 2494 3170 3254 4887 3695 8103 109808 81482 0 0 Current balance Overall balance Balance excluding Hurricane ERF Privatization 57176 1558 1558 63303 -36742 -36742 55359 -61823 -61823 30700 -70375 -70375 23185 -70413 -70413 26272 -37016 -37016 41035 -10276 -10276 35213 -16542 -16542 37245 -22736 -22736 46135 -51122 -51122 43026 •154043 -101147 -54127 27175 -175057 -138092 -54127 Financing Domestic financing Central bank Net borrowing Change in deposits Commercial banks Net borrowing Change in deposits Other domestic financing Financing abroad Disbursements Amortization Sinking fund and JCF -1558 •12089 36742 2704 5610 3309 2301 9539 8449 1090 -12445 38890 43824 -5885 951 61822 26523 48197 45260 2937 -22018 •8471 -13547 344 43431 51289 -7620 -238 70375 47711 27521 22114 5407 20028 -2416 22444 162 30262 46726 -14761 -1703 70412 39070 14452 5688 8764 24746 •2965 27711 -128 19484 47272 -27905 117 37016 28673 8482 8375 107 20081 19822 259 110 4922 36294 -32754 1382 10275 -44992 -16856 22755 -39611 -27857 -26229 -1628 -279 48284 80549 -32278 13 16543 16844 -4368 -21484 17116 21314 20936 378 -102 2553 35909 -33281 -75 22736 11555 10593 1191 25801 55704 •29655 -248 51123 -15647 -29313 -32442 3129 27922 27915 7 -14256 67046 97680 -30893 259 99876 -104983 -102113 -63 -102050 -1658 2346 -4004 -1212 205007 263597 -55721 -2799 175107 100339 98280 6128 92152 390 -3157 3547 1669 74839 153344 64532 -13973 -4852 -8132 -7598 11858 3421 6983 -2854 -14620 -276 -198 -121 Other Source: Central Bank of Belize 10531 , -229 Belize_______ B alance o f paym ents US$ million 1990 Current account M erchandise trade Exports (fob) Imports (fob) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 15.2 -25.3 -29.2 •48.8 38.3 -0.5 -4.1 -16.7 -65.7 -73.15 -126.7 -169.55 -102.4 -59.2 129.2 188.4 -97.5 128.1 223.6 -104.3 140.2 244.5 -116.5 134.1 250.6 -76.9 156.3 233.2 -66.2 164.3 230.5 -56.2 171.3 229.5 -80.9 199.9 280.8 -124.3 213.2 337.5 -102.55 263.6 366.15 -173.15 288.45 461.6 -191.45 269.1 460.55 -127 297.1 424 54.8 -16.2 29.9 61.4 -26.3 45.4 58.1 -29.4 48.8 107.8 29 52.8 47.8 -32.1 62.2 46.2 -31.7 66.9 52.1 -30.1 78.6 53.3 -32 85.6 32.8 -35.1 69.4 42.3 -44.05 102.25 38.5 -42.5 81.55 55.4 -37 91 Services (net) TransDoration (net) Travel (net) Services: Credit Transportation Travel O ther goods and services G overnm ent goods and services 0 122.7 11.4 46.1 65.2 142.8 13.8 59.7 69.3 150.3 12.3 69.3 68.7 138.3 11.4 71.4 55.5 135.8 5.8 87 28 15 137.9 6.2 93.1 25.7 12.9 140.6 5.7 96.5 25.3 13.1 161.5 8.5 111.4 20.5 21.1 153.65 8.55 105.6 20.65 18.85 184.75 10.8 142.75 13.4 17.8 174.55 11.2 119.65 19.75 23.75 Services: Debit Transportation Travel Other goods and services Governm ent goods and services 0 67.9 27.6 16.2 24.1 81.4 40.1 14.3 27 92.2 41.7 20.5 30 30.5 -17.6 16.6 29.5 88 37.9 24.8 21.6 3.7 91.7 37.9 26.2 23.9 3.7 88.5 35.8 17.9 30.6 4.2 106.2 40.5 25.8 33.8 8.1 120.85 43.65 36.2 33.35 7.65 142.45 54.85 40.5 38.3 8.8 136.05 53.7 38.3 35.6 8.45 -10.6 -16.6 -19.8 -21.8 *22.3 -25.6 -23.5 -43.7 -41.65 -54.55 •65.1 Income: Credit Compensation of employees Investment income 0 8.9 3.3 5.6 6.5 3.4 3.1 6 3.4 2.6 6.6 3.7 2.9 6 4.1 1.9 6.7 4.5 2.2 7.4 4.9 2.5 2.7 0 2.7 4.65 1.85 3 9.15 2.05 7.1 11.1 2 9.1 Income: Debit Compensation of employees Investment income 0 19.5 4.6 14.7 23.1 4.7 18.4 28.4 5.3 23.1 28.3 5.6 22.7 32.3 6.1 26.2 30.9 6.6 24.1 46.4 6.4 40 46.5 6.45 40.05 63.7 9.45 54.25 76.2 11.8 64.4 15.2 -53.3 -59.5 -78.2 9.1 -40.7 -37.6 -52.3 -114.7 -111.4 -185.4 -218.05 -61.6 32.3 4.3 35.3 5 33.8 4.4 34.4 5.2 43.1 2.9 36.6 3.1 39.6 4.2 52.4 3.4 40.6 2.35 60.05 1.35 50.45 1.95 51 1 0 0 0 -4.1 -2.6 -2.2 -3.4 0.8 2.75 1.55 0.9 0 4.1 0 2.6 0 2.2 0 3.4 3.2 2.4 4.55 1.8 2.25 0.7 2.05 1.15 38.4 -11.1 11.5 24.6 91.4 96.35 204.2 143.6 18.8 6.3 18.2 3.7 10.9 10.1 8 10.1 47.3 49.8 19.4 40.25 32.9 -8.9 20.1 36.5 -14.55 22.6 113.15 -51.5 123.15 -17.95 •18.1 137.4 1.25 -2.45 14.45 incom e (net) 00 Balances o f goods, services and inoome Current transfers, n.I.e: Credit Current transfers; Debit Capital account 0 25.8 _ 4.7 _ 21.1 Capital account: Credit Capital account: Debit Financial account Direct investment abroad Official long term capital Direct investment in the reoorting economy Portfolio investment asse ts Portfolio investment liabilities O ther investment asse ts O ther investment liabilities Net errors and omissions Overall balance R eserve A ssets (minus - increase) Source: Central Bank of Belize and IMF 25.1 16.3 16.3 36.2 7.9 21.4 -4.2 10.2 13.6 1.7 0 -9.2 12.3 15.6 3 0.2 •14.8 23 11.5 4 7 -9.3 13.3 -33 -9.5 6.5 -81 78.4 -27.8 -8.5 1.4 -13.2 -18.3 17.2 15.7 •3.8 0.7 12.5 -17.5 •11.5 -25.8 54.3 3 20.9 0.7 27.2 27.2 76.6 -10.6 -24 -12.5 17.5 11.5 25.8 -54.3 -3 •20.9 -0.7 -27.2 -27.2 -76.6 10.6 24 49 JAMAICA _________ Table 1 ________ Jamaica________ Selected economic indicators Real GDP growth by selected economic sector Agriculture, forestry and fishing Manufacturing Electrictiy and water Construction and installation Distributive trade Transport, storage and communication Miscellaneous services a/ Prices GDP deflator Consumer price index (average) Consumer price index (December to December) Consumer price index (September to September) Labor statistics Unemployment rate Employment (000') o in External sector Merchandise exports (f.o.b) (million US$) Merchandise imports (c.i.f) (Million US$) Gross visitor expenditure External debt (as a percentage of GDP) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 79,338.4 19,026.5 1.9 108,812.8 19,407.2 2.0 145,862.0 19.577.6 0.9 183,054.2 19,773.0 1.0 220,416.5 19,967.6 1.0 240,562.9 19,624.4 -1.7 254,085.6 19,556.5 -0.3 274,333.3 19,471.7 -0.4 307,039.3 19,599.6 0.7 334,698.8 19,940.2 1.7 364,821.7 20,339.0 2.0 0.9 5.7 7.5 1.9 0.6 2.2 4.1 -1.0 11.6 •2.5 3.9 3.8 0.4 6.0 5.4 4.8 9.6 0.3 -1.6 3.3 -0.5 3.7 9.3 6.7 6.6 6.9 -0.1 -0.5 -6.3 0.7 5.0 -0.4 2.6 -6.8 -0.8 3.6 7.2 4.0 9.6 3.4 3.5 7.5 -4.2 4.9 -5.4 1.2 9.1 2.0 -13.7 3.3 -2.5 5.5 -4.0 0.9 5.7 2.5 -1.5 3.3 -4.4 6.4 -5.8 •1.9 5.6 1.9 1.3 -1.2 -0.7 4.8 -1.5 -0.5 8.6 2.2 -10.9 -1.7 0.9 3.3 0.2 1.3 6.0 4.8 5.2 3.8 0.6 1.1 2.0 0.2 6.3 -1.8 -8.5 -2 -1.9 3.2 2.0 -0.1 5.7 -3.6 34.5 32.9 24.3 19.2 40.2 30.1 26.8 25.6 15.8 11.0 9.7 9.2 6.0 8.6 7.9 8.4 6.0 6.8 11.2 8.2 6.1 7.1 7.0 8.7 7.5 7,0 5.9 16.5 946.8 29.8 1992 60.0 11.5 22.8 3.9 6.9 1.6 4.6 3.5 6.8 1991 48,650.2 18,668.4 1990 Real domestic product Nominal GDP at factor costs (J$ million) Real GDP (contant 1986 prices) Real GDP annual percentage growth 15.5 953.6 15.7 943.9 15.5 933.5 15.0 939.4 80.2 2002e/ 1,192.4 1,942.4 1,150.7 1,828.6 1,053.6 1,775.4 1,075.4 2,189.2 1,219.6 2,233.2 1,796.6 3,082.2 1,721.3 3.171.1 1,700.3 3,128.0 493.0 1,613.4 2,961.0 580.0 1,499.4 2,904.0 597.0 1,555.0 3.200.0 670.8 1,451.6 3.365.0 648.0 541.42 1442.03 591.1 97.8 110.9 115.5 94.7 90.1 71.3 58.4 51.8 51.0 46.3 50.3 57.1 57.3 31.0 26.8 4.2 29.7 25.7 4.0 30.9 27.6 3.3 30.6 27.3 3.3 32.0 29.9 2.1 29.1 36.0 -6.9 27.6 35.9 -8.3 29.2 36.6 -7.4 32.9 37.5 -4.6 35.3 34.0 1.4 30.7 37.0 -6.3 32.2 37.0 -4.9 33.7 48.1 41.9 31.5 39.7 38.5 13.1 34.2 25.6 8.6 11.7 15.4 15.7 -12.1 -1.9 -4.4 31.0 12.5 8.5 3.1 5.4 19.1 4.4 7.2 32.0 27.4 29.5 18.0 10.1 17.3 -1.3 -3.4 -2.5 26.9 12.9 10.6 6.6 29.4 18.9 -2.3 10.0 9.8 8.5 25.3 18.8 9.5 11.9 13.4 26.22 48.56 20.79 37.81 14.06 31.93 15.54 30.08 13.27 24.64 12.21 22.12 10.13 19.50 9.15 17.85 Fiscal balance b/ Total revenue (as percentage of GDP) c/ Total expenditure and net lending (as percentage of GDP) Overall fiscal balance (as percentage of GDP) Monetary sector Currency in circulation Demand deposits Narrow money (M1) Time deposits Savings deposits Broad money (M2) Nominal interest rates d/ Weighted average deposit rate Weighted average lending rate 31.59 27.50 34.03 23.00 46.04 39.80 49.60 27.85 45.79 Source: Sank o f Jamaica and Planning Institute o f Jamaica a/ Includes hotels, restaurants and clubs__________________________________________________________________________ b/Computed on a fiscal year basis. The first data point corresponds to the fiscal year 1991/1992. The data for 2002 correspond to the budget projections. This may differ from the fiscal outturn. d includes grants______________________________________________________________________________________________________ ______________________ d/end of period.______________________________________________________________________________________________________ e/ Preliminary estimates based on official information. Sectorial growth rates refer to the period September 2002-2001. Trade data for 2002 refers to the period January-May.__________ ___ Monetary aggregates refer to September 2002-2001, Interest rate data are for August 2002.__________________________________________ ___ _________________________ Denotes not available._____________ _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ' ~ ~ _____________ Table 2 ___________________ __________________ Jamaica_________________ Summary off Central Government Fiscal Operations Millions of Jamaica dollars 1990/91 Revenue and grants 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 Fiscal year 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 Ï999/00 2000/01 2001/02 Budget 2002/2003 April-Sept 2001/02 April-Sept 2002/03 9,648.9 15,075.4 23,557.5 33,614.1 44,596.3 58,523.8 63,085.5 66,426.1 74,092.2 90,372.6 108,440.2 102,588.1 117,322.3 48,448.0 51,252.6 7,748.3 573.4 606.9 364.0 356.3 11,483.8 781.9 1,245.8 849.6 714.3 19,050.3 1,214.7 1,622.9 726.4 943.2 28,947.7 1,544.2 1,725.5 905.9 490.8 38,071.6 1,930.4 2,374.2 877.0 1,343.1 50,262.6 3,585.1 2,795.1 700.2 1,180.8 55,191.3 3,310.4 2,797.6 726.6 1,059.6 59,224.3 3,097.1 2,872.3 507.5 724.9 66,970.3 3,085.3 2,786.8 597.6 652.2 75,964.9 5,271.3 2,605.0 5,596.6 934.8 87,074.4 7.783.9 2,752.6 9,092.2 1,737.1 90,568.2 4,949.0 2,252.3 2,843.7 1,974.4 106,786.0 5,921.5 2,604.5 1,236.8 773.5 43,700.2 1,980.5 1,179.4 946.5 641.4 48.013.1 1,636.5 869.9 255.8 477.2 8,841.8 13,018.3 20,386.0 29,997.1 39,802.9 54,717.6 78,052.4 86,387.7 93,263.3 102,947.8 104,265.3 123,791.6 135,060.5 62,028.0 73,113.6 7,470.0 1,686.5 2,857.5 2,926.0 10,638.9 2,611.9 3,886.4 4,140.6 16,321.9 5,457.5 3,991.5 6,872.9 25,369.3 5,197.7 10,295.4 9,876.2 34,454.6 8,297.0 11,142.6 15,015.0 44,441.8 10,664.9 15,805.7 17,971.2 64,225.2 12,901.5 24,043.3 27,280.4 72,113.2 18,483.9 29,065.6 24,563.7 84,743.4 18,241.0 31,913.4 34,589.0 93,166.3 19,487.3 31,895.0 41,784.0 34,980.3 6,803.7 95,780.7 17,696.6 35,163.8 42,920.3 34,306.0 8,614.3 113,665.1 20,066.5 42,588.2 51,010.4 40,353.4 10,656.9 125,149.5 20,457.1 45,074.6 59,617.8 42,733.0 16,884.8 55,956.1 10,806.1 20,796.3 24,353.8 19,904.5 4,449.3 68,665.5 13,652.8 24,733.4 30,279.3 23,132.6 7,146.8 1,371.8 2,379.4 4,059.8 4,627.4 5,882.0 7,908.0 11,156.1 12,118.9 6,900.4 8,400.5 8,545.3 10,126.4 9,911.0 5,931.7 4,448.0 807.1 2,057.1 3,171.5 3,617.0 4,793.4 3,806.2 -14,966.9 -19,961.6 -19,171.1 -12,575.2 4,175.0 -21,203.5 -17,738.2 -13,580.0 -21,861.0 Loan receipts External Domestic 4,150.6 3,404.1 746.5 8,072.5 1,955.3 6,117.2 9,729.1 5,180.0 4,549.1 26,889.2 3,930.7 22,958.5 113,200.4 4,273.7 7,046.7 48,966.9 4,484.2 44,482.7 44,595.6 13,507.1 48,715.7 60,599.4 11,883.7 48,715.7 72,482.7 10,706.0 61,776.7 69,346.2 27,284.7 42,061.4 104,647.3 39,172.5 65,474.8 84,942.1 26,136.0 58,806.1 42,515.5 23,287.4 19,228.2 47,849.0 32,147.7 15,701.3 Amortization 4,093.8 7,987.2 6,208.3 18,034.6 15,158.9 24,075.7 31,326.6 34,476.5 54,940.3 61,758.3 90,974.2 75,003.9 44,747.1 39,832.3 Overall balance Source: Ministry of Finance 2,016.1 3,254.8 7,136.7 13,648.0 690.7 9,926.0 -6,693.4 6,951.8 5,737.3 11762.8 -384.6 0.0 -14,210.5 -13,844.3 Tax revenue Non-Tax revenue Bauxite Levy Capital revenue Grants Expenditure Recurrent expenditure Programmes Wages and salaries Interest Domestic External Capital expenditure Fiscal surplus/deficit Table 3 Jamaica Monetary Survey Millions of Jamaica Dollars Net foreign assets 1996 38,114.4 1997 35,544.4 14,679.0 32,456.7 57,151.9 81,563.1 Credit to the public sector -8,506.3 -4,995.9 9,179.6 41,325.7 88,930.3 Credit to the private sector 26,282.0 39,927.6 50,036.9 42,159.5 Credit to other financial institutions -3,096.7 -2,475.0 -2,064.6 Other net assets 21,897.9 10,991.4 -10,348.8 - Liabilities to the private sector CM 1995 30,169.5 Net domestic assets in 1994 16,573.1 53,150.0 73,617.6 84,947.5 Currency in circulation Demand deposits M1 Time deposits Savings deposits M2 Source: Bank of Jamaica 7,115.1 9,258.9 16,374.0 12,042.8 24,733.2 53,150.0 9,512.1 13,715.6 23,227.7 15,839.7 34,550.2 73,617.6 10,753.7 18,412.8 29,166.5 17,204.3 38,576.7 84,947.5 1998 36,759.7 1999 40,606.6 2000 69,801.9 2001 Sept.01 Sept. 02 116,591.60 117,922.3 97,639.5 132,934.0 149,077.3 107,715.0 111,007.3 122,620.6 120,534.6 126,393.6 34,126.6 26,571.9 29,106.7 34,949.4 31,910.2 42,495.6 -1,922.1 -13,683.1 -6,156.8 -7,180.0 -8,492.7 -9,096.7 -5,418.4 21,502.90 -43,602.2 -48,476.7 -69,738.1 -119,607.3 -99,404.0 -120,802.3 95,604.6 102,531.3 120,260.0 132,997.8 146,061.6 141,583.6 160,590.8 12,442.8 16,181.0 28,623.8 16,453.7 50,527.1 95,604.6 13,494.7 16,682.3 30,177.0 19,599.9 52,754.4 102,531.3 17,810.0 21,259.2 39,069.2 23,131.3 58,059.5 120,260.0 17,583.6 20,527.8 38,111.4 29,345.1 65,541.3 132,997.8 18,744.9 26,565.2 45,310.1 28,658.2 72,093.3 146,061.6 16,146.1 25,474.5 41,620.6 29,987.2 69,975.8 141,583.6 17,524.1 31,926.0 49,450.1 32,843.9 78,296.8 160,590.8 109,373.80 128,130.10 143,348.10 163,470.8 Table 4 _________ _________ Jamaica_________ Commercial bank credit__ Sectoral distribution Thousands of Jamaica Dollars 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Aug-01 Aug-02 11,879,066.0 14,095,062.0 21,814,748.0 32,294,462.0 45,864,183.0 54,563,142.0 59,342,121.0 43,084,027.0 36,728,067.0 40,573,754.0 49,035,098.0 43,791.240.0 62,193,810.0 940,226.0 1,117,086.0 1,416,676.0 2,038,472.0 1,879,014.0 2,247,806.0 2,541,335.0 1,977,036.0 1,598,090.0 1,557,229.0 1,479,622.0 1,602,770.0 1,423,230.0 47,371.0 73,405.0 118,114.0 236,441.0 354,053.0 320.729.0 245,630.0 191,027.0 98,706.0 87,190.0 98,177.0 54,670.0 108,000.0 M anufacturing 1,897,112.0 2 ,119,937.0 3,027,035.0 3,867.328.0 6,092,579.0 7,310,510.0 5,898,600.0 4,001,960.0 2,992,362.0 3,046,790.0 3.119,261.0 2,982,100.0 3,552,000.0 C o nstruction and land d eve lo pm en t 2,361,706.0 2 ,473,946.0 3,321,062.0 4,616,147.0 5,587,267.0 4,692,017.0 4,070,143.0 2,540,172.0 2,029,014.0 2,026,132.0 2,339,359.0 1,883,940.0 2,486,810.0 369,182.0 325,454.0 784,616.0 1,232,084.0 2,352,688.0 4,310,664.0 7,009,782.0 2,638,617.0 1,260,903.0 747,295.0 178,201.0 1,175,935.0 1,137,678.0 2,163,632.0 3,026,855.0 4,399,854.0 3,810,409.0 3,845,809,0 1,901,195.0 1,445,874.0 1,525,731.0 4,409,793.0 2,397,230.0 4,072,880.0 12,657.0 238,489.0 155,558.0 197,361.0 93,675.0 224,921.0 96,382.0 68,239.0 66,539.0 773,945.0 1,256,921.0 G overnm ent services 705,365.0 813,222.0 1,299,414.0 2,674,275.0 3,353,042.0 5,237,423.0 8,736,346.0 4,716,532.0 4,894,041.0 6,696,791.0 10,288,241.0 8,756,900.0 17,799,380.0 D istribution 639,461.0 844,266.0 1,667,178.0 2,061.705.0 3,513,743.0 4,034,542.0 3,751.922.0 3,610,449.0 2,833,062.0 3,563,853.0 3,224,744.0 T o urism 7 43,826.0 1,027,752.0 2 00,056.0 2,912,101.0 3,830,392.0 4,682,199.0 4,335,951.0 4,260,418.0 3,560,650.0 4,747,676.0 5,166,295.0 151,309.0 137,499.0 89,390.0 T o ta l A griculture M ining Financial institutions T ransport, storage a nd com m unication E lectricity, gas a nd w a te r en m 91,428.0 270,368.0 147,517.0 175.336.0 288,127.0 258,787.0 213,950.0 124,935.0 P rofessional a nd o th e r se rvice s Entertainm ent 1,554,168.0 1,524,257.0 3,460,322.0 3,614,394.0 5,201,281.0 6,142,816.0 7,070,507.0 6,427,634.0 4,507,343.0 4,730,003.0 3,552,700.0 P ersonnai 1,340,629.0 2 ,129,202.0 4,053,568.0 5,641,963.0 8.918,468.0 11,290,319.0 11,525,764.0 10,625,813.0 11,290,174.0 10,933,620.0 13,832,394.0 S ource: B ank o f Jam a ica a n d P lanning Institute o f Jam aica Table 5 ____ Jamaica_____ Balance of payments US$ million 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Jan-May 2001 Jan-May 2002 Current account -255.8 10.9 -194.2 18.3 -192.3 -139.3 -332.2 -333.7 -216.3 -288.6 -650 -273.8 -330 Merchandise trade Exports (fob) Imports (fob) -424.3 1150.7 1575 -475.6 1053.6 1529.2 -804.7 1075.4 1880.1 -648.7 1219.5 1868.2 -989.6 1436.8 2426.4 -1116.3 1386.9 2503.2 -1132.3 1700.34 2832.6 -1130.5 1613.4 2743.9 -1186.5 1499.1 2685.6 -1353.5 1554.6 2908.1 -1580 1451.6 33031.6 -675.1 612.8 1287.9 -691.3 541.3 1232.6 394.6 494.9 473.8 476 486.4 518.1 467.2 476.9 655.4 594 546.4 227.2 149.8 710.4 -315.8 794.2 -299.3 878.4 -404.6 854 -378 939.6 -453.2 952.4 -434.3 -273.4 949.5 -208.9 -278.3 998.9 -243.7 -233.6 1052.4 -163.4 -247.1 1123.9 -282.8 -260.4 1073.2 -266.4 -91.2 498.8 -180.4 -106.3 404.5 -148.4 -478.9 -348.2 -240.2 -284.3 -296.9 -177.5 -478.9 -348.2 -240.2 -284.3 -296.9 -177.5 -291.9 57.7 -349.6 -308.1 I" 66.1 -374.2 -332.5 70.3 -402.8 -349.9 67.4 -417.3 -488.7 78.8 -567.5 -170 8.5 -178.5 -183.3 9.6 -192.9 Current transfers Official Private 252.8 99.5 153.3 339.8 91.6 248.2 376.9 70.5 306.4 475.3 28.1 447.2 607.8 57.7 550.1 636.4 52.6 583.8 624.8 39.8 585 628 43.2 584.8 647.3 45.8 601.5 820.8 147.9 672.9 872.3 62.9 809.4 344.1 29 315.1 394.8 17.3 377.5 Capital and financial account 255.8 -10.9 194.2 -18.3 192.4 139.3 332.2 333,7 216.3 288.6 650.6 273.8 330 24.1 24.1 20.5 3.6 21.1 21.1 18.7 2.4 -11.6 -11.6 7 -18.6 -8.7 -8.7 4.2 -12.9 -10.9 r -10.9 4.1 -15 2.2 r 2.2 15.6 -13.4 -12.4 -12.4 3.5 -15.9 -9.8 -9.8 2 -11.8 -10.9 -10.9 0.2 -11.1 168.3 -97 118.2 -87.2 343.8 182.5 146.7 342.4 381.7 287.1 227.2 93.6 428.8 286.4 383.7 662.4 653.4 283.6 340.9 43.1 -41.3 -331.4 479.4 11.4 Services balance Transportation Travel Other services Income Compensation of employees Investment income ■' '3 in Capital account Capital transfers Official Private Financial account Official investment Direct investment Portfolio investment Other 255.8 99.2 Private investment 51.4 336.3 309.1 446.6 285 476.6 -7.3 135.9 -3.8 422 880.3 440.3 299.4 105.2 -337.2 -113.4 -337.5 -19.7 -271.2 161.3 -39.3 133.6 -519.3 -871.3 -511.1 -30.1 Reserves ^ Source: Bank of Jamaica; Planning Institute of Jamaica -10.9 -10 194.2 -1.5 -18.3 -127.4 Table 6 Jamaica Public external debt US$ million 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 September 2002 Total external debt 3277.6 3306.4 3024.1 3375.3 4146.1 4230.9 Commercial banks Multilateral Bilateral Bond issue Other 267.6 1165.1 1545.1 249.6 50.3 165.11 1087.2 1476.2 550.0 27.7 147.2 1027.5 1367.5 450.0 31.9 132.8 1115.4 1218.5 862.8 45.9 97.7 H 1127.3 1063.1 1655.7 202.4 Source: Ministry of Finance 47.3 1132.8 1023.0 1791.2 236.7 Table 7 Jamaica Annual inflation (Consumer Price Index) January 1988 = 100 Point-to-point 2000 1997 1998 1999 All items 9.2 7.9 6.8 6.1 8.7 5.9 Food and drink 8.9 4 3.9 4.4 6.8 5.6 Fuel 7.3 9.7 2.9 7.6 10.7 3 10.2 9.6 24.4 17.5 4 13.2 Home furniture and supplies 8.1 3.9 3.5 8.9 4.8 3.9 Healthcare and personal 8.8 7.5 7.6 6.7 5.5 5.1 10.6 3.7 5.6 4.5 3.4 r 3.5 2.1 25.8 4.3 3.9 26.6 2.7 15.9 23.3 16.2 6.1 16 7.4 Housing Personal clothing Transportation Miscellaneous expenses Source: Planning Institute of Jamaica 2001 September 2001 -2002 TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO Table 1 Trinidad and Tobago Selected economic indicators 1995 Real domestic product Nominal GDP at market prices (TT$ million) Real GDP annual percentage growth 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 31,697.0 3.2 34,448.1 2.9 36,552.4 3.0 38,197.1 4.0 41,044.9 5.0 50,871.5 4.7 55,815.1 3.3 61,564.1 2.7 2.7 -2.0 ã5 15.0 17.7 -15.2 5.4 4.1 13.9 13.6 -1.4 8.1 3.4 7.9 9.8 4.4 1.1 6.7 8.0 8.6 -2.7 2.4 3.6 5.4 10.3 11.1 4.5 1.1 1.9 1.1 Real GDP growth by selected economic sector Agriculture Petroleum Manufacturing Construction Distributive trade Prices Consumer price Index (December to December) Labor statistics Labor force (000') Unemployment rateb/ 5.3 3.3 3.6 5.6 3.4 3.6 5.6 3.9 521.0 17.2 530.4 16.2 541.0 15.0 558.7 14.2 563.4 13.2 564.0 12.2 576.5 10.7 585.8 11.0 2542.3 3036.2 2264.6 3007.6 2815.8 2752.2 4290.3 3321.5 4123.9 3693.5 987.6 862 External sector Merchandise exports (f.o.b) (million US$) c/ Merchandise imports (c.I.f) (Million US$) Public sector external debt (million US$) Fiscal balance d/ Overall fiscal balance (as percentage of GDP) 1,905.2 1,877.2 1,564.8 1,471.1 1,584.8 1,679.8 1,637.6 1,614.2 0.2 0.5 0.1 -1.9 -3.2 1.2 0.6 0.1 4.5 13.2 5.1 1.9 14.1 11.6 36.9 15.5 7 13.5 17.50 11.93 17.50 10.36 16.50 10.54 14.50 8.33 12.00 4.13 Monetary sector el M1 M2 Nominal interest rates f/ Basic prime lending 90 day Treasury Bill Rate 15.00 8.79 15.50 10.57 Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago Note: a/ Includes hotels and guest houses, education and community services and personal services b/ The unemployment rate for 2001 and 2002 and the labor force for 2002 refers to March 2001 cl Exports and imports for 2002 refer to the first quarter of the year. d/ Computed on a fiscal year basis. el The rates of growth of the monetary aggregates for 2002 correspond to the period August 2001-August 2002 f/ end of period. Refers to the month of September for 2002. 15.00 10.00 Table 2 Trinidad and Tobago Annual changes in GDP by economic sector at 1985 prices 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2.7 -15.2 -1.4 4.4 -2.7 11.1 -2.0 5.4 8.1 1.1 2.4 4.5 Manufacturing 3.5 4.1 3.4 6.7 3.6 ^ 1.1 Electrictiy and water 5.1 5.3 -0.6 9.6 2.7 1.2 Construction 15.0 13.9 7.9 8.0 5.4 1.9 Distributive trade 17.7 13.6 9.8 8.6 5.4 1.1 Transport, storage and communication 4.7 4.3 10.5 7.2 3.5 10.6 Finance, insurance and real estate 0.8 ^ 2.5 2.2 2.4 5.6 5.9 -0.3 3.2 -0.7 4.0 3.1 2.9 Other services a/ 2.0 3.3 1.8 3.6 6.3 2.6 Total 3.0 4.0 5.0 4.7 3.3 2.7 Agriculture Petroleum Government r Note: a/ Includes hotels and guest houses, education and community services anc personal services Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago Table 3 Trinidad and Tobago Central government fiscal operations Millions of TT$ 2001 Oct. 99/Sept. 00 Oct. 00/Sept. 01 Oct.01/Sept.02 1999 Current revenue Current expenditure Current account surplus/deficit Capital revenue Capital expenditure and net lending Overall surplus/deficit Total financing (net) Net external borrowing Disbursements Repayments Divestment proceeds Domestic financing (net) Source: Ministry of Finance 2000 9613.2 13006.7 13379.9 12133.3 14146.2 13732.2 10541.9 10993.5 12594.9 11275.1 13017.6 13213.3 -928.7 2013.2 785 858.2 1128.6 518.9 100.8 527.4 29.9 1224 35.6 861.2 66.1 1224.3 234.8 973.3 293 743 -1355.3 819.1 -40.6 -300 390.1 68.9 1355.3 -819.1 40.6 300 -390.1 -68.9 842.8 1802.3 -959.5 53.9 846.9 2344.3 -1497.4 31.5 -5.5 158 -163.5 0 1607.6 2547.6 -940 -779.8 365 -1144.8 -182.7 240.6 -423.3 458.6 -1697.5 46.1 -1307.6 389.7 113.8 Table 4 Trinidad and Tobago Central government expenditure Million TT$ 1999 10541.9 2000 10993.5 2001 12594.9 Oct.99/Sept.OO 11275.1 Fiscal year Oct. 00/Sept. 01 13017.6 Oct.01/Sept.02 13213.3 Wages and salaries Goods and services 3,657.0 1,111.0 3,190.1 1,205.4 4,091.3 1,542.2 3,141.1 1,236.3 3,772.9 1,552.2 4,224.6 1,742.0 Interest External Domestic 2,344.1 754.1 1,590.0 2,429.7 872.1 1,557.6 2,222.0 768.0 1,453.9 2,520.3 839.4 1,680.9 2,382.7 817.0 1,565.7 2,259.5 800.3 1,459.2 3,429.7 662.1 1,241.6 4,168.3 1,095.8 1,403.9 4,739.3 1,259.5 1,560.9 4,377.4 5,309.8 4,987.2 527.4 1,224.0 861.2 1,224.3 973.3 743.0 11,069.3 12,217.5 13,546.1 12,499.4 13,990.9 13,956.3 Current expenditures Transfers and subsidies Loans and grants to statutory bodies and enterprises Households Capital expenditure and net lending Total expenditure Source: Ministry of Finance Table 5 Trinidad and Tobago Tax revenues of the central government Millions TT$ 1998/99 - 2001/02 Fiscal year Oct. 00/Sept. 01 Oct. 99/Sept. 00 Oct.02/Sept.01 May-33 12,133.3 14,381.0 14,146.2 14025.2 13732.2 6,217.6 3,481.7 2,169.4 195.3 149.1 65.1 157.0 7,700.8 4,573.0 2,389.5 306.1 151.5 89.6 191.1 6574.1 3303.2 2671 204.5 127.5 60.1 125.1 82.7 70.8 66.3 103 63.9 59.1 96.5 3,128.7 3,425.8 3814.6 800.7 1,889.5 33.2 239.4 822.3 2,193.7 44.3 216.4 911.2 2481.3 28.3 209 781.5 856.8 880.3 Import duties Stamp duties 746.4 110.6 811.2 113.2 850.2 114.9 Non-tax revenue 1,824.1 1,983.3 2245.3 Total revenue Current revenue Taxes on income and profits Companies Individuals Withholding taxes Health surcharge Business levy Unemployment fund Other Taxes on property ofwhich: Land and buildings Taxes on goods and services Excise tax Value added tax Departure tax Motor vehicle tax and duties Taxes on international trade Source: Ministry of Finance ______ Table_6_______ Trinidad and Tobago Balance of payments US$ million 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 a/ 396.1 -66.7 32.5 -107.8 221.4 269.9 68.2 -578.9 -645.4 30.6 544.3 126.5 148.1 819.4 2081 1261.6 319 1986 1667 434 1869.6 1435.6 163.4 1662.2 1498.8 597.7 1971.9 1374.2 592.2 2477.4 1885.2 346.5 2505.8 2159.3 -493.9 2542.3 3036.2 -743 2264.6 3007.6 63.6 2815.8 2752.2 968.8 4290.3 3321.5 430.4 4123.9 3693.5 125.5 987.6 862 -3.2 67.3 58.8 60.6 43.1 159.4 244.1 292.5 417.6 329.1 166.1 299.1 52.1 Transportation Travel Communication Insurance Other government Other sen/ices 54.7 -27.6 0 -10.3 -12.2 -7.8 63 -9.2 0 -23.4 -14.5 51.4 83 -3.7 0 -24.5 -8.6 12.6 102 -25.5 0 -7.8 -1.5 -6.6 81.5 -2.9 0 7.2 -5 -37.7 100.4 -5.9 73.1 -6.8 -14.2 103.2 32.2 84.5 25.4 -5 3.8 88.2 121 79.8 35.5 -11.3 -20.7 78.2 134 91.9 30.1 77.5 5.9 80.9 126.8 102.8 23.9 -10.2 4.9 34.4 65.7 30.8 45.7 -13.9 3.4 90.2 159.7 25.4 65.1 -22 -19.3 12.4 15.3 7.8 19.2 -2.2 -0.4 Income Investment income -394.8 -394.8 -439.3 -439.3 -444.3 -444.3 -325.1 -325.1 -413.3 -413.3 -465.4 -465.4 -515.3 -515.3 -381.3 -381.3 -342.3 -342.3 -399.9 -399.9 -628.5 -628.5 -639.1 -639.1 -39.4 -39.4 Net current transfers -25.3 -13.7 -16 -6.7 -6.1 -16.3 -7.1 3.8 22.3 37.8 37.9 36.1 9.8 Net capital account -520.7 -261.9 -172.5 91.5 -32.5 -27.5 43.1 841.2 694.4 217.9 264.7 343.2 -151.8 109.4 -256.1 144.1 -89.4 171 -136.4 -244.5 0.9 -130.4 -166.1 -5.2 -145.3 -101.9 0 -105.2 0 372.6 -132.2 -85.4 19.8 0 -83.3 0 521 -261.4 -120.6 -7.3 0 -107.6 -56.6 295.7 -277.5 88.5 -97.6 0 -69.3 32.7 356.3 -311.9 -27.4 47.4 0 -24.3 3 -0.4 999.6 50.2 21.9 -245.5 0 -13 28 -0.4 731.9 117.6 -49.7 -105.7 0 -5.7 6 -170 379.2 -174.9 73.7 124.4 0 -14.5 0 -146.3 654.3 -211.1 -86.1 114.9 0 -61 0 -57.9 554 -302.2 198.7 -34.7 0 -14.7 0 -0.2 182.6 -354.7 42.9 -20.1 0 -2.3 -65.5 -3.5 23.2 167.5 -7.9 -209.9 102.2 -86.6 31.5 -86.3 -368 0.9 -190.1 -332.1 -116.8 151.2 181 32.5 213.5 175.7 80.5 162.2 441 470.6 -3.7 190.1 -85.2 0 -99.4 14.2 332.1 184 -0.3 174.5 9.8 116.8 40.1 -0.8 33.2 7.7 -151.2 -158.6 1.6 -160.2 -181 -186.5 -0.2 -186.3 -32.5 -40.5 0 -40.5 -213.5 -213.5 -0.3 -213.2 -175.7 -175.7 -0.4 -175.3 -80.5 -80.5 -0.2 -80.3 -162.2 -162.2 0 -162.2 -441 -441 3.5 -444.5 -470.6 -470.6 0 -470.6 3.7 3.7 8 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Current account Merchandise trade Exports (fob) Imports (fob) Services balance rn VO Portfolio investment Direct investment Other Commercial banks Official borrowing ' Official loans State enterprise borrowing Other assets Net error and ommissions Overall surplus or deficit Total Financing Official financing Government Central bank (net) Commercial banks Exceptional financing 275.3 148.1 76.7 7.4 5.5 Debt rescheduling 275.3 148.1 69.8 0 0 Other 6.9 7.4 5.5 Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago a/ Corresponds to the first quarter of 2002. In the capital acount the item other includes errors and omissions. 12.8 0 0 0r 0 0 o 0 0! 0¡ t t