Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys

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cepal.articleNo5
cepal.bibLevelSección o Parte de un Documento
cepal.callNumberLC/G.2614-P
cepal.docTypeRevistas
cepal.idSade54405
cepal.jelCodeE37
cepal.jelCodeE53
cepal.jobNumberRVI113Poncela_en
cepal.physicalDescriptiongráficos., tablas.
cepal.regionalOfficeSantiago
cepal.topicEngINFLATION
cepal.topicSpaINFLACIÓN
cepal.workareaEngECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
cepal.workareaSpaDESARROLLO ECONÓMICO
dc.contributor.authorPoncela, Pilar
dc.contributor.authorGuerrero, Víctor
dc.contributor.authorIslas C., Alejandro
dc.contributor.authorRodríguez, Julio
dc.contributor.authorSánchez-Mangas, Rocío
dc.coverage.spatialEngMEXICO
dc.coverage.spatialSpaMEXICO
dc.date.accessioned2014-12-10T13:07:37Z
dc.date.available2014-12-10T13:07:37Z
dc.date.issued2014-08
dc.description.abstractWe examine the problem of combining Mexican inflation predictions or projections provided by a biweekly survey of professional forecasters. Consumer price inflation in Mexico is measured twice a month. We consider several combining methods and advocate the use of dimension reduction techniques whose performance is compared with different benchmark methods, including the simplest average prediction. Missing values in the database are imputed by two different databased methods. The results obtained are basically robust to the choice of the imputation method. A preliminary analysis of the data was based on its panel data structure and showed the potential usefulness of using dimension reduction techniques to combine the experts' predictions. The main findings are: the first monthly predictions are best combined by way of the first principal component of the predictions available; the best second monthly prediction is obtained by calculating the median prediction and is more accurate than the first one.
dc.formatTexto
dc.format.extentpáginas. 75-8
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.unSymbolLC/G.2614-P
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11362/37421
dc.language.isoeng
dc.physicalDescriptionp. 75-87; grafs., tabls.
dc.relation.isPartOfCEPAL Review
dc.relation.isPartOfNo113
dc.relation.isPartOfSeriesCEPAL Review
dc.relation.translationLanguagespa
dc.relation.translationRecordMéxico: la combinación de las predicciones mensuales de inflación mediante encuestas
dc.relation.translationUrihttps://hdl.handle.net/11362/36960
dc.rights.coarDisponible
dc.subject.unbisEngINFLATION
dc.subject.unbisEngECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
dc.subject.unbisEngSURVEYS
dc.subject.unbisSpaINFLACION
dc.subject.unbisSpaPROYECCIONES ECONOMICAS
dc.subject.unbisSpaENCUESTAS
dc.titleMexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys
dc.type.coarrevista
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