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The low predictive power of simple Phillips curves in Chile

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Date
2015-08
Author
Pincheira Brown, Pablo
Rubio Hurtado, Hernán
UN Symbol
LC/G.2643-P
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Abstract
This study uses some backward-looking versions of Phillips curves, estimated from both revised and real-time data, to explore the existence, robustness and size of the contribution that a variety of activity measures may make to the task of predicting inflation in Chile. The main results confirm the findings of the recent international literature: the predictive power of the activity measures considered here is episodic, unstable and of moderate size. This weak predictive contribution is robust to the use of final and real-time data.
Translation
El escaso poder predictivo de simples curvas de Phillips en Chile
Published in:
CEPAL Review   No.116

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Serie
CEPAL Review
ECLAC Subtopics
MACROECONOMICS
United Nations Subtopics
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ; INFLATION ; ECONOMIC FORECASTS ; ECONOMETRIC MODELS ; EVALUATION
Country / Region
CHILE
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11362/39619
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