Import substitution in Brazil between 1995 and 2000

Abstract

The Brazilian economy suffered major changes in the second half of the 1990s, when price stabilization, trade liberalization with an overvalued exchange rate and privatizations altered productive processes in various sectors and led to import substitution, among other phenomena. Import substitution occurred in particular following the reform of the exchange-rate regime, which entailed a substantial devaluation in early 1999. This article seeks to measure the intensity of that process, distinguishing effects that can be related to exchange-rate variations induced by relative prices alone (spontaneous import substitution); from those that reflect levels of effective protection (import substitution induced by trade policy);.