An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat

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cepal.bibLevelDocumento Completo
cepal.callNumberLC/CAR/L.307
cepal.docTypeDocumentos de Organos Subsidiarios
cepal.docTypeDocumentos de proyectos e investigación
cepal.jobNumberLCCARL307_en
cepal.physicalDescriptiontablas
cepal.regionalOfficePuerto España
cepal.topicEngCLIMATE CHANGE
cepal.topicSpaCAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
cepal.workareaEngSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN SETTLEMENTS
cepal.workareaSpaDESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE Y ASENTAMIENTOS HUMANOS
dc.contributor.entityNU. CEPAL. Sede Subregional para el Caribe
dc.coverage.spatialEngMONTSERRAT
dc.coverage.spatialSpaMONTSERRAT
dc.date.accessioned2015-07-14T18:08:01Z
dc.date.available2015-07-14T18:08:01Z
dc.date.issued2011-10-22
dc.description.abstractThis report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009, there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. Besides temperature, there is also the threat of wind speeds. Since the early 20th century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Montserrat, the estimated damage from four windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$260 million or almost five times 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. The report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations as well as those under two likely climate scenarios: A2 and B2. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will likely decline and therefore negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Including this tourism climatic index in a tourism demand model suggests that this would translate into losses of around 145% of GDP. As it relates to coral reefs, the value of the damage due to the loss of coral reefs was estimated at 7.6 times GDP, while the damage due to land loss for the tourism industry was 45% of GDP. The total cost of climate change for the tourism industry was therefore projected to be 9.6 times 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry, a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these, a short-list of 9 potential options was selected using 10 evaluation criteria. These included: (a) Increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Construction of water storage tanks; (c) Irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water; (d) Enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (e) Deployment of artificial reefs and fish-aggregating devices; (f) Developing national evacuation and rescue plans; (g) Introduction of alternative attractions; (h) Providing re-training for displaced tourism workers, and; (i) Revised policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities Using cost-benefit analysis, three options were put forward as being financially viable and ready for immediate implementation: (a) Increase recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Enhance reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and; (c) Deploy artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits: an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities.
dc.description.tableOfContents.--I. Introduction.-- II. Background.--III. Data collection and analysis.-- IV. Quantifying the impact of climate change on tourism.-- V. Econometric results and simulations.-- VI. Cost-benefit assessment of adaptation options.-- VII. Conclusions.
dc.formatTexto
dc.format.extent54 páginas.
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.unSymbolLC/CAR/L.307
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11362/38611
dc.language.isoeng
dc.physicalDescription54 p. : tables, figures.
dc.publisherECLAC, Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
dc.publisher.placePort-of-Spain
dc.rights.coarDisponible
dc.subject.unbisEngSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject.unbisEngCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject.unbisEngTOURISM
dc.subject.unbisEngCLIMATE
dc.subject.unbisEngCORAL REEFS
dc.subject.unbisEngLANDSCAPE PROTECTION
dc.subject.unbisEngECOSYSTEMS
dc.subject.unbisEngCOST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
dc.subject.unbisEngECONOMIC ASPECTS
dc.subject.unbisEngENERGY POLICY
dc.subject.unbisSpaDESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE
dc.subject.unbisSpaCAMBIO CLIMATICO
dc.subject.unbisSpaTURISMO
dc.subject.unbisSpaCLIMA
dc.subject.unbisSpaARRECIFES DE CORAL
dc.subject.unbisSpaPROTECCION DEL PAISAJE
dc.subject.unbisSpaECOSISTEMAS
dc.subject.unbisSpaANALISIS COSTO-BENEFICIO
dc.subject.unbisSpaASPECTOS ECONOMICOS
dc.subject.unbisSpaPOLITICA ENERGETICA
dc.titleAn assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat
dc.type.coarcontribución a congreso
dc.type.coarlibro
dspace.entity.typePublication
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Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones)