The use of high-frequency indicators in short-term forecasting models: The case of Latin American and Caribbean countries

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cepal.bibLevelDocumento Completo
cepal.callNumberLC/TS.2017/61
cepal.divisionEngEconomic Development Division
cepal.divisionSpaDivisión de Desarrollo Económico
cepal.docTypeSeries
cepal.jobNumberS1700591_es
cepal.topicEngECONOMIC INDICATORS AND PROJECTIONS
cepal.topicEngMACROECONOMICS
cepal.topicSpaINDICADORES ECONÓMICOS Y PROYECCIONES
cepal.topicSpaMACROECONOMÍA
cepal.workareaEngECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
cepal.workareaSpaDESARROLLO ECONÓMICO
dc.contributor.authorManuelito, Sandra
dc.coverage.spatialEngLATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
dc.coverage.spatialSpaAMERICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE
dc.date.accessioned2017-07-11T20:01:58Z
dc.date.available2017-07-11T20:01:58Z
dc.date.issued2017-06
dc.description.abstractThe importance of sound and accurate early estimates of economic activity is of utmost importance to national economic authorities at the time of the decision-making process, and to the various agents involved in the economic analysis and follow up of the short-term economic prospects. In this context, the availability of short-term forecasts for quarterly GDP growth rates becomes highly relevant. In Latin America and the Caribbean an increasing amount of countries is producing high frequency economic data, and there has been an increasing interest by national authorities to use this data to improve economic analyses and short-term economic forecasts. This article discusses the use of the now casting methodology applied to Latin American and Caribbean countries with the objective of generating more accurate quarterly GDP growth forecasts. The results show that, for the short-term, this methodology produces accurate and reliable estimates although results at the country level depend very much on the amount and quality of the data available, as well as on its timeliness.
dc.description.tableOfContentsAbstract .-- Introduction .-- I. The use of high frequency indicators in short-term economic analysis and forecasting in Latin America and Caribbean countries .-- II. The empirical models .-- III. Usefulness, scope and challenges in the use of these models in the Latin American and Caribbean context .-- Conclusions.
dc.formatTexto
dc.format.extent28 páginas.
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.unSymbolLC/TS.2017/61
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11362/41956
dc.language.isoeng
dc.physicalDescription28 p.
dc.publisherECLAC
dc.publisher.placeSantiago
dc.relation.isPartOfSeriesSerie Macroeconomía del Desarrollo
dc.relation.isPartOfSeriesNo188
dc.rights.coarDisponible
dc.subject.unbisEngECONOMIC ANALYSIS
dc.subject.unbisEngECONOMIC INDICATORS
dc.subject.unbisEngECONOMIC FORECASTS
dc.subject.unbisEngMATHEMATICAL MODELS
dc.subject.unbisEngCASE STUDIES
dc.subject.unbisSpaANALISIS ECONOMICO
dc.subject.unbisSpaINDICADORES ECONOMICOS
dc.subject.unbisSpaPRONOSTICOS ECONOMICOS
dc.subject.unbisSpaMODELOS MATEMATICOS
dc.subject.unbisSpaESTUDIOS DE CASOS
dc.titleThe use of high-frequency indicators in short-term forecasting models: The case of Latin American and Caribbean countries
dc.type.coarlibro
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