An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture Sector in Jamaica

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cepal.bibLevelDocumento Completo
cepal.callNumberLC/CAR/L.324
cepal.docTypeDocumentos de Organos Subsidiarios
cepal.docTypeDocumentos de proyectos e investigación
cepal.jobNumberLCCARL324_en
cepal.physicalDescriptiontablas
cepal.regionalOfficePuerto España
cepal.topicEngCLIMATE CHANGE
cepal.topicSpaCAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
cepal.workareaEngSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN SETTLEMENTS
cepal.workareaSpaDESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE Y ASENTAMIENTOS HUMANOS
dc.contributor.entityNU. CEPAL. Sede Subregional para el Caribe
dc.coverage.spatialEngCARIBBEAN REGION
dc.coverage.spatialSpaCARIBE
dc.date.accessioned2015-07-13T17:54:57Z
dc.date.available2015-07-13T17:54:57Z
dc.date.issued2011-10-22
dc.description.abstractThe agricultural sector‟s contribution to GDP and to exports in Jamaica has been declining with the post-war development process that has led to the differentiation of the economy. In 2010, the sector contributed 5.8% of GDP, and 3% to the exports (of goods), but with 36% of employment, it continues to be a major employer. With a little less than half of the population living in rural communities, agricultural activities, and their linkages with other economic activities, continue to play an important role as a source of livelihoods, and by extension, the economic development of the country. Sugar cane cultivation has, with the exception of a couple of decades in the twentieth century when it was superseded by bananas, dominated the agricultural export sector for centuries as the source of the raw materials for the manufacture of sugar for export. In 2005, sugar cane itself accounted for 6.4% of the sector‟s contribution to GDP, and 52% of the contribution of agricultural exports to GDP. Production for the domestic market has long been the larger subsector, organized around the production of root crops, especially yams, vegetables and condiments. To analyse the potential impact of climate change on the agricultural sector, this study selected three important crops for detailed examination. In particular, the study selected sugar cane because of its overwhelming importance to the export subsector of agriculture, and yam and escallion for both their contribution to the domestic subsector as well as the preeminent role yams and escallion play in the economic activities of the communities in the hills of central Jamaica, and the plains of the southwest respectively. As with other studies in this project, the methodology adopted was to compare the estimated values of output on the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios with the value of output on a “baseline” Business As Usual (BAU), and then estimate the net benefits of investment in the relevant to climate change for the selected crops. The A2 and B2 Scenarios were constructed by applying forecasts of changes in temperature and precipitation generated by INSMET from ECHAM inspired climate models. The BAU “baseline” was a linear projection of the historical trends of yields for each crop. Linear models of yields were estimated for each crop with particular attention to the influence of the two climate variables – temperature and precipitation. These models were then used to forecast yields up to 2050 (table1). These yields were then used to estimate the value of output of the selected crop, as well as the contribution to overall GDP, on each Scenario. The analysis suggested replanting sugar cane with heat resistant varieties, rehabilitating irrigation systems where they existed, and establishing technologically appropriate irrigation systems where they were not for the three selected crops.
dc.description.tableOfContents.--I. Introduction and Background.-- II. Literature Review.--III. The agricultural sector in Jamaica.--Iv. Estimating the impact of Climate change.--V. Adaptation.-- VI. Conclusions and Recommendations.
dc.formatTexto
dc.format.extent72 páginas.
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.unSymbolLC/CAR/L.324
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11362/38585
dc.language.isoeng
dc.physicalDescription72 p. : tables, figures
dc.publisherECLAC, Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
dc.publisher.placePort-of-Spain
dc.rights.coarDisponible
dc.subject.unbisEngSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject.unbisEngCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject.unbisEngAGRICULTURE
dc.subject.unbisEngAGEING
dc.subject.unbisEngMIGRATION
dc.subject.unbisEngPOVERTY
dc.subject.unbisEngPOPULATION
dc.subject.unbisEngRURAL AREAS
dc.subject.unbisEngRURAL EMPLOYMENT
dc.subject.unbisEngRURAL CONDITIONS
dc.subject.unbisEngRURAL WATER SUPPLY
dc.subject.unbisEngSEA LEVEL
dc.subject.unbisEngNATURAL DISASTERS
dc.subject.unbisEngENVIRONMENTAL POLICY
dc.subject.unbisEngECONOMIC ASPECTS
dc.subject.unbisEngENERGY POLICY
dc.subject.unbisSpaDESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE
dc.subject.unbisSpaCAMBIO CLIMATICO
dc.subject.unbisSpaAGRICULTURA
dc.subject.unbisSpaENVEJECIMIENTO
dc.subject.unbisSpaMIGRACION
dc.subject.unbisSpaPOBREZA
dc.subject.unbisSpaPOBLACION
dc.subject.unbisSpaZONAS RURALES
dc.subject.unbisSpaEMPLEO RURAL
dc.subject.unbisSpaCONDICIONES RURALES
dc.subject.unbisSpaABASTECIMIENTO RURAL DE AGUA
dc.subject.unbisSpaNIVEL DEL MAR
dc.subject.unbisSpaDESASTRES NATURALES
dc.subject.unbisSpaPOLITICA AMBIENTAL
dc.subject.unbisSpaASPECTOS ECONOMICOS
dc.subject.unbisSpaPOLITICA ENERGETICA
dc.titleAn assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture Sector in Jamaica
dc.type.coarcontribución a congreso
dc.type.coarlibro
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