Demographic models for projections of social sector demand

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cepal.bibLevelDocumento Completo
cepal.callNumberINT UN/SO 65(66/2006)
cepal.callNumberLC/L.2477-P
cepal.divisionEngCELADE - Population Division
cepal.divisionSpaCELADE - División de Población
cepal.docTypeSeries
cepal.idSade27197
cepal.physicalDescriptiongráficos, tablas
cepal.regionalOfficeSantiago
cepal.saleNumber06.II.G.10
cepal.topicEngDEMOGRAPHY
cepal.topicEngSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
cepal.topicEngFISCAL AFFAIRS
cepal.topicSpaDEMOGRAFÍA
cepal.topicSpaDESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE
cepal.topicSpaASUNTOS FISCALES
cepal.workareaEngSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN SETTLEMENTS
cepal.workareaEngECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
cepal.workareaEngPOPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT
cepal.workareaSpaDESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE Y ASENTAMIENTOS HUMANOS
cepal.workareaSpaDESARROLLO ECONÓMICO
cepal.workareaSpaPOBLACIÓN Y DESARROLLO
dc.contributor.authorMiller, Timothy
dc.contributor.entityNU. CEPAL. CELADE
dc.coverage.spatialEngCHILE
dc.coverage.spatialEngLATIN AMERICA
dc.coverage.spatialSpaAMERICA LATINA
dc.coverage.spatialSpaCHILE
dc.date.accessioned2014-01-02T16:36:10Z
dc.date.available2014-01-02T16:36:10Z
dc.date.issued2006-06
dc.descriptionIncludes bibliography
dc.description.abstractAbstract This paper presents three demographic models useful for projections of social sector demand. The first model is a probabilistic national population forecast based on the collective experience of UN member states. It offers a set of probabilistic forecasts as a complement to the official UN scenario forecasts. The second model forecasts the population by age and educational level using data from a single census. Forecasts are presented for Chile which show dramatic changes in the educational composition of the elderly population and in the working-age population in the near future. These trends are likely to have important implications for reductions in poverty and future economic growth. The third model examines the effects of changes in population age structure on social sector demand. As an example, some likely effects of population aging on the Chilean government budget are examined. Each of the 3 models presented in this paper are based on relatively simple accounting frameworks. Though simple, the models provide interesting insights into the future demography of countries and the economic and fiscal implications of these changes.
dc.formatTexto
dc.format.extent63 páginas.
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.isbn9211215765
dc.identifier.unSymbolLC/L.2477-P
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11362/7210
dc.language.isoeng
dc.physicalDescription63 p. : gráfs., tabls.
dc.publisherCELADE
dc.publisher.placeSantiago
dc.relation.isPartOfSeriesSerie Población y Desarrollo
dc.relation.isPartOfSeriesNo66
dc.subject.unbisEngDEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
dc.subject.unbisEngECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subject.unbisEngFERTILITY
dc.subject.unbisEngMATHEMATICAL MODELS
dc.subject.unbisEngMIGRATION
dc.subject.unbisEngMORTALITY
dc.subject.unbisEngPOPULATION COMPOSITION
dc.subject.unbisEngPOPULATION PROJECTIONS
dc.subject.unbisEngPOPULATION
dc.subject.unbisSpaANALISIS DEMOGRAFICO
dc.subject.unbisSpaCOMPOSICION DE LA POBLACION
dc.subject.unbisSpaCONDICIONES ECONOMICAS
dc.subject.unbisSpaFECUNDIDAD
dc.subject.unbisSpaMIGRACION
dc.subject.unbisSpaMODELOS MATEMATICOS
dc.subject.unbisSpaMORTALIDAD
dc.subject.unbisSpaPOBLACION
dc.subject.unbisSpaPROYECCIONES DE POBLACION
dc.titleDemographic models for projections of social sector demand
dc.type.coarlibro
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