The impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

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cepal.bibLevelDocumento Completo
cepal.callNumberLC/CAR/L.263
cepal.docTypeDocumentos de proyectos e investigación
cepal.jobNumberLCCARL263_en
cepal.physicalDescriptiontablas
cepal.regionalOfficePuerto España
cepal.topicEngCLIMATE CHANGE
cepal.topicSpaCAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
cepal.workareaEngSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN SETTLEMENTS
cepal.workareaSpaDESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE Y ASENTAMIENTOS HUMANOS
dc.contributor.entityNU. CEPAL
dc.coverage.spatialEngCARIBBEAN REGION
dc.coverage.spatialSpaCARIBE
dc.date.accessioned2015-06-15T18:31:46Z
dc.date.available2015-06-15T18:31:46Z
dc.date.issued2010-06-10
dc.description.abstractThe main aim of this study is to estimate the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A typical tourism demand function, with tourist arrivals as the dependent variable, is used in the analysis. To establish the baseline, the period under analysis is 1989-2007 and the independent variables are destination country GDP per capita and consumer price index, source country GDP, oil prices to proxy transportation costs between source and destination countries. At this preliminary stage the climate variables are used separately to augment the tourism demand function to establish a relationship, if any, among the variables. Various econometric models (single OLS models for each country, pooled regression, GMM estimation and random effects panel models) were considered in an attempt to find the best way to model the data. The best fit for the data (1989-2007) is the random effects panel data model augmented by both climate variables, i.e. temperature and precipitation. Projections of all variables in the model for the 2008-2100 period were done using forecasting techniques. Projections for the climate variables were undertaken by INSMET. The cost of climate change to the tourism sector was estimated under three scenarios: A2, B2 and BAU (the mid-point of the A2 and B2 scenarios). The estimated costs to tourism for the Caribbean subregion under the three scenarios are all very high and ranges from US$43.9 billion under the B2 scenario to US$46.3 billion under the BAU scenario.
dc.description.tableOfContents.--Introduction.--I. Review Of The Literature.--II. Modelling Tourism Demand In The Caribbean.--III. Results.--IV. Forecasting The Cost Of Climate Change.--V. Adaptation And Mitigation Strategies.--Vi. Conclusion
dc.formatTexto
dc.format.extent34 páginas.
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.unSymbolLC/CAR/L.263
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11362/38285
dc.language.isoeng
dc.physicalDescription34 p.: tables, figures.
dc.publisherECLAC
dc.publisher.placePort-of-Spain
dc.rights.coarDisponible
dc.subject.unbisEngSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject.unbisEngCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject.unbisEngTOURISM
dc.subject.unbisEngTOURISM DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject.unbisSpaDESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE
dc.subject.unbisSpaCAMBIO CLIMATICO
dc.subject.unbisSpaTURISMO
dc.subject.unbisSpaFOMENTO DEL TURISMO
dc.titleThe impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean
dc.type.coarlibro
dspace.entity.typePublication
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Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones)